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Ethnoconfessional Nationalism in the Balkans: Analysis, Manifestations and Management

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Ethnoconfessional Nationalism in the Balkans: Analysis, Manifestations and Management Gordon N. Bardos Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2013 ©2013 Gordon N. Bardos All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT Ethnoconfessional Nationalism in the Balkans: Analysis, Manifestations and Managements Gordon N. Bardos For at least the past two hundred years, ethnoconfessional nationalism has been the most powerful ideology and force shaping political and social developments in southeastern Europe. This dissertation argues that Balkan ethnoconfessional nationalism is such an important element in southeastern Europe because it is a collective, chronic and non-economic phenomenon which transcends other political ideologies, generations, or socio-economic classes. As such, conventional Marxist-based approaches to understanding the phenomenon of nationalism, and their intellectual descendants such as the more materially-based forms of social constructivism and instrumentalism, consistently fail to both understand and predict its appeal and success in southeastern Europe. The dissertation concludes by arguing that there are severe limitations to the extent to which outsiders can manage the outcome of ethnoconfessional conflicts; hence, in terms of policy prescriptions, the analysis provided in this dissertation argues for a cautious and modest understanding of the extent to which intervention by the international community can transform Balkans states and societies. Ethnoconfessional Nationalism in the Balkans: Analysis, Manifestations and Management Table of Contents Acknowledgements: iv Dedication: v Chapter I. The Problem and a Proposed Explanation I: The Problem of Ethnoconfessional Nationalism, 1; II: The Argument in Brief, 3; III: Defining Ethnoconfessional Nationalism, 12; IV: The Psychological and Social Roots of Ethnoconfessional Nationalism, 19; V: The Millet System as an Independent Variable Affecting Ethnoconfessional Nationalism in the Balkans, 33; VI: Religion and Balkan Ethnoconfessional Nationalism, 41; VII: Structure of the Dissertation and Academic and Policymaking Implications, 53. Chapter II: Alternative Explanations I: Introduction, 59; II: Elite-based Theories, 60; III: Modernism and Balkan Nationalism, 86; IV: Rationalist and Economic Explanations, 97; V: Conclusions, 119. Chapter III: Three Theses on Balkan Ethnoconfessional Nationalism I: Introduction, 122; II: Ethnoconfessional Nationalism as a Collective Phenomenon, 126; III: Ethnoconfessional Nationalism as a Chronic Phenomenon,146; Microcase Study 1: “Greater Albania,”154; Microcase Study 2: “Greater Bosnia,”163; Microcase Study 3:”Greater Croatia,”164; Microcase Study 4: “Greater Serbia,”175; IV: Ethnoconfessional Nationalism as a Non-Economic Phenomenon, 183; V: Conclusions, 193. Chapter IV: The Ethnoconfessional Disintegration of the Western Balkans: Historical Narrative and Empirical Evidence I: Introduction, 200; II: Inter-Ethnoconfessional Relations in the Balkans: Historical Context, 204; III: Ethnoconfessional Identities and Divisions in the 19th Century, 216; IV: Interwar Yugoslavia, 221; V: The Second Yugoslavia, 232; VI: The Ethnoconfessional Segmentation of Yugoslav Society, 1945-1999, 248; VII: Conclusions, 271. i Chapter V: Nations Making States I: On Elites and Institutions, 275; II: Microcase Study 1: Serbia, 283; III: Microcase Study 2: Nationalisms in Bosnia & Herzegovina, 288; IV: Microcase Study 3: Macedonianism, 301; V. Microcase Study 4: Alexander’s Integral Yugoslavism, 308; VI: Conclusions, 314. Chapter VI: Policy Implications Introduction, 317; I: Ethnoconfessional Nationalism and Political Interventions, 330; II: Ethnoconfessional Nationalism and Social Interventions, 365; III: Ethnoconfessional Nationalism and Economic Interventions, 372; IV. Temporal Horizons, 379; V:”When All Else Fails”: Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Conflict, 382; VI: International Determinants of the Success of Ethnoconfessional Movements, 388; VII: Conclusions, 394. SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY: 398 APPENDIX: 425 -----1910 Bosnia-Herzegovina Sabor (Parliament) Elections -----1921 Ratification Vote of Vidovdan Constitution -----1974 Josifovski Study on Ethnic Distance in Polog District, Macedonia -----1990 Bosnian Elections -----August-September 1990 Krajina Serb Referendum on Autonomy -----December 1990 Slovenian Plebiscite on Independence -----December 1990 Serbian Parliamentary Elections -----May 1991 Croatian Referendum on Sovereignty -----September 1991 Macedonian Referendum on Independence -----September 1991 Kosovo Independence Referendum -----October 1991 Sandžak referendum on political and cultural autonomy -----November 1991 Public Opinion Survey on Sustainability of BiH -----January 1992 Albanian Referendum on “Illyria” -----March 1992 Preševo Valley Referendum on Unification with Kosovo -----February 1992 Bosnia-Herzegovina Referendum on Independence -----April 1998 USIA Public Opinion Surveys in Bosnia & Herzegovina -----1999 Serb Vote on International Mediation in Kosovo -----November 2000 Herceg-Bosna Referendum on Autonomy within BiH -----April 2002 Montenegro Public Opinion Survey -----October 2004 Kosovo Parliamentary Elections (Serb Boycott) -----July 2005 BiH Public Opinion Survey on Formation of a Croat Entity -----September 2005 RS Public Opinion Survey on RS secession/unification with Serbia -----May 2006 Montenegrin Independence Referendum Analysis of Voting by Municipality -----February 2007 Serbian parliament vote on Ahtisaari Plan -----April-June 2007 Kosovo Early Warning Report -----June 2007 Greek Public Opinion Survey on FYROM name issue ii -----October 2007 Macedonian Constitutional Court Decision on Flag Displays -----February 2010 Gallup Balkan Monitor survey on “Greater Albania” -----July 2010 Public Opinion Survey on Macedonia Name Issue -----July 2010 Gallup Balkan Monitor survey on Kosovo Independence iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS For the friendship, collegial support, and intellectual inspiration they have provided to me over the years, I would like to thank Jeffrey K. Amann, Dominique Arel, Eduardo Ayala, Karen Barkey, Volker Berghahn, Sumantra Bose, Vangelis Calotychos, Kerry Capell, Amy Christen, Alexander Cooley, David Crowe, Istvan Deak, the late Professor Edwin Fedder, Jan Frantzen, Shpetim Gashi, Ingrid Gerstmann, Joel Glassman, Radmila Gorup, Robert Greenberg, Stephanie Grepo, Alex N. Grigorev-Roinishvili, Kevin Hallinan, Robert Hayden, Mary Hines, Kevin Eric Laney, Robert Legvold, Fr. John Anthony McGuckin, John Micgiel, Zoran Milutinovic, Lincoln Mitchell, Neni Panourgia, Fredrick S. Pearson, Roger Petersen, Deena Reyes, J. Martin Rochester, the late Professor Joseph Rothschild, Sherrill Stroschein, Aristotle Tziampiris, Elizabeth Kridl-Valkenier, Mitja Velikonja, Lana Vierdag, Mark Von Hagen, Dean Vuletic, Susan L. Woodward, and the many other people whose love, support and encouragement made this dissertation possible. I wish to express my particular thanks to the members of my dissertation committee, Timothy Frye, Macartan Humphreys, Kimberly Marten, Alexander Motyl, and Jack Lewis Snyder. iv DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my mother, Radmila, my wife, Katsiaryna, to the memory of my father, Emil, to Mr. Robert Baumann, Professor Joyce Marie Mushaben, Professor Jack Lewis Snyder, and all of my other friends and colleagues, with heartfelt and constant gratitude. I would also like to express a long-unpaid debt of gratitude to an old generation of Yugoslav immigrants in St. Louis, Missouri, many now long dead, whose tales of village life and wartime adventures sparked a little boy’s imagination, and led him on a lifelong pursuit of all things Balkan. v 1 Chapter I The Problem and a Proposed Explanation The state makes the nation. Josef Pilsudski Nations are created and abolished by God, and not by ministers or dictators. Only what springs up from the people can be long-lasting. Vladko Maček The attempt, through the use of state power, to create in the shortest possible time a Yugoslav nationalism that would suffocate Serbian and Croatian nationalism—did not succeed. Slobodan Jovanović We have up until now tried everything possible to maintain Yugoslavia: first it was a unitary state, then it became a federation, and now we are moving towards a confederation. If even that does not succeed, then it only remains for us to admit that the Comintern was right when it claimed that Yugoslavia was an artificial creation, and that we—Yugoslav communists—had made a mistake. Eduard Kardelj I. The Problem of Ethnoconfessional Nationalism The dominant force in Balkan politics and society for the past 200 years has been ethnoconfessional nationalism.1 Some one hundred years ago, it led to the breakup of the Habsburg and Ottoman empires, and sparked the beginning of the First World War. In the 1990s, it has led to the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia and the wars accompanying its breakup. For the past two decades, trying to control its often violent manifestations has been a major focus of international attention. Former U.S. president Bill Clinton called the war in Bosnia “the most 1 Precisely which countries belong to “the Balkans” is controversial among scholars, with some now preferring the term “southeastern Europe.” Traditionally, “the Balkans” have referred to Europe south and east of the Drava and Danube rivers, hence including all of present-day Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Turkey west of the Bosphorus,
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