Political Report Volume 1, Issue 3 • March 2005

Bush and His Predecessors Bush’s Ratings on the Issues March 2005 marks the 51st month that President Bush Terrorism remains Bush’s strong suit, and Social has occupied the Oval Office. This chart compares Security, his weakest one. Bush’s latest approval rating with those of his predeces- sors at this same point in their terms. Approve Latest 2004 Avg. Terrorism 59% 59% The 51st-Month Mark Overall job 50 51 Health care 44 38 Mar. 2005 George W. Bush 52% Economy 43 45 Mar. 1997 Bill Clinton 59 Iraq 39 46 Mar. 1985 Ronald Reagan 56 Social Security 35 39 Mar. 1973 Richard Nixon 57 Feb. 1968 Lyndon Johnson 41 Highest Priority for Bush and Congress This Year Mar. 1957 Dwight Eisenhower 72 Economy/jobs 27% Note: Data are the first asking of the question each month. Source: The Gallup Organization. Iraq 23 Terrorism 17 Health care 16 Social Security 10 Source: ABC News/Washington Post, March 10–13, 2005. Democrats in Trouble? Several recent polls show esteem for the Republicans higher than for the Democrats. Especially troubling for Democrats is the Democrats’ view of their party. Prisoner #55170-054 Q: In general, do you think the [Democratic/ Prison was good for Martha Stewart’s stock, with shares Republican] Party is headed in the right direction of Martha Stewart Living moving from a low of about or that the [Democratic/Republican] Party is $8 this summer to more than $30 at the time of her headed in the wrong direction? release from prison. Prison also appears to have improved her standing in public opinion, as the num- On the Headed in bers below show. Right Track Wrong Direction Q: I’m going to read the names of some people. Republican Party Please tell me whether you have a generally National response 46% 48% favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you’ve Republicans’ response 87 10 never heard of one, please just say so . . . Martha Stewart? Democratic Party Favorable Unfavorable National response 38 52 Democrats’ response 59 34 Jun. 2003 30% 45% Mar. 2005 46 36 Source: Marist Poll, February 2005. Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org Social Security: The Second Anniversary of The State of Play the Iraq War The bad news for the president is that a plethora of Two years ago, as America prepared to go to war, about polls on Social Security reform show Bush in a weak two-thirds of the American people supported the deci- position on the issue right now. Three new polls show sion. From the beginning, Americans expected the his rating on handling Social Security to be lower than peace to be more difficult than the war. In February his rating on any other issue. A third or less approve of 2005, they told pollsters that the elections went better his handling of Social Security. than expected, and they are optimistic about the possi- The good news for the president is that Americans bility that Iraq will keep its democracy in the future. aren’t confident of the Democrats. Democratic strate- People are divided about whether the war was the right gists Stan Greenberg and James Carville recently asked thing to do. As for American troops, a majority seems why the Republicans haven’t “crashed and burned,” prepared to see them stay put in Iraq for a while. given the president’s low ratings on the issue. Their answer, from a February Democracy Corps memo: Q: Which of the following do you think will be more “[V]oters’ deeper feelings about the Democrats who difficult for the United States . . . ? appear to lack direction, conviction, values, advocacy Winning the war will be more difficult 13% or a larger public purpose.” Rebuilding Iraq and establishing a new Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way government will be 84 George W. Bush is handling . . . Social Security? Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today, April 2003. Approve 29% Disapprove 55 Q: Five years from now, do you think it is more likely that . . . ? Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, February 2005. June February 2004 2005 Q: Now I would like to read you a list of phrases Iraq will have some form related to Social Security, and after I read each of democracy 34% 56% phrase, please tell me whether you believe the phrase best describes President Bush or the Some form of dictatorship 47 28 Democrats. Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics.

President Demo- Q: Should the U.S. troops stay in Iraq . . . ? Bush crats As long as it takes to make sure Iraq Watching out for the interests is a stable democracy, even if that of current retirees 40% 46% takes a long time 55% Watching out for the interests U.S. troops should leave as soon as of young people 45 42 possible, even if Iraq is not completely Trust to make the right kinds stable 40 of changes 48 40 Source: CBS/New York Times, Feburary 2005. Is offering the right kind of ideas 44 38 Is willing to work with both political parties to find a AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS solution 51 33 Karlyn Bowman, Resident Fellow; John Fortier, Has proposals and positions Research Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; that would protect Social Ben Wattenberg, Resident Fellow; and Barry Security into the future 44 40 McMillion, Ford Fellow. Source: NPR, February 2005. Research Assistants: Bryan O’Keefe, Editor; Christopher Trendler; and Jeremy Kadden.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2 The 109th Congress: The Senior Democrats Oldest One Yet While both political parties have their share of “senior” members, the House Democrats count fifteen members When the 109th Congress officially started business on who are at least seventy years old, including several rank- January 4, it enjoyed the peculiar distinction of being the ing members of committees listed below. But as Roll Call oldest Congress to date. As Neil Howe and William points out, while the ranking members are often men- Strauss of Lifecourse Associates show, the average age of a tioned among potential retirees, they are also the first to senator and representative has greatly increased since the insist they are staying put. Will they stay if the prospects time of our founding. for a Democratic recapture of Congress look dim? Average Age of Average Age Ranking Member Committee Age Representatives of Senators John Dingell (MI) Energy & Commerce 78 1801 44 46 Tom Lantos (CA) International Relations 76 1901 49 58 John Conyers (MI) Judiciary 75 2001 54 59 Charles Rangel (NY) Ways & Means 74 2005 56 61 Ike Skelton (MO) Armed Services 73 Source: Lifecourse Associates. James Oberstar (MN) Transportation 70

Tax Time Economic Indicators It’s that time again. Here’s what Americans are saying In the public’s mind, the economy hasn’t shown much about taxes: vigor lately. Today, 41 percent say things are getting • Forty-nine percent told Schulman, Ronca, Bucu- better; 50 percent say things are getting worse. valas/Time interviewers that the federal income taxes they pay were too high. Forty-five percent said Economic conditions today are excellent/good they were about right, and 3 percent too low. March 2005 35% • Personal property taxes are a greater source of dissat- March 2004 32 isfaction than federal income taxes: 38 percent told March 2003 22 Gallup that local property taxes were the worst tax March 2002 34 they pay. Twenty-one percent felt that way about March 2001 46 the income tax. Eleven percent described the Social Security tax that way. Economic conditions in the country as a whole are • On Election Day, 5 percent of voters selected taxes as Getting Better Getting Worse the top issue for them in casting their vote. As in past March 2005 41% 50% elections, they voted for the Republican over the March 2004 44 47 Democrat, 57 percent for Bush to 43 percent for Kerry. March 2003 23 67 • In January 2005, 50 percent said the tax system March 2002 54 37 worked well and required only minor changes. March 2001 28 61 Twenty-nine percent said it needed major changes, Note: Data are the first asking of the question each month. and 17 percent wanted it to be completely rebuilt. Source: Gallup. People felt better about the operation of the tax sys- tem than the Social Security system, the legal system, the education system, or the health care system. • Three percent love doing their taxes.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 3 2005 and 2006 Governors’ Races In the next two years, thirty-eight and there should be a spirited race ships of the four biggest states. In governorships will be up for election. between Democratic Lieutenant Gov- California, Arnold continues to have If history is a guide, there will be sig- ernor Tim Kaine and Republican very high approval ratings, although nificant turnover, and Republicans Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. the state tends Democratic. In Texas, may see a diminution of their twenty- Thirty-six states will hold guberna- the real action may be in the Repub- eight to twenty-two lead in control of torial elections in 2006. Republicans lican primary, as Senator Kay Bailey governors’ mansions. hold twenty-two of these governor- Hutchinson is mulling a race against In 2005, New Jersey and Virginia ships. Only once in the past forty years, sitting Governor Rick Perry, and will hold gubernatorial elections. Both 1986, has the president’s party gained Democrats have yet to field a candi- states have Democratic governors who governorships in a midterm election. date. In New York, George Pataki has are not running for election, but in In 2002, the last midterm, twenty of not decided whether to run for a other respects they could not be more the thirty-six governorships changed fourth term, and Democrats smell different. In New Jersey, despite the parties. That may have been the high victory with Pataki’s low approval controversy surrounding the resigna- water mark for change, as fourteen gov- ratings and the strength of likely tion of Jim McGreevey, Senator John ernors were term limited. Only six in nominee Attorney General Eliot Corzine should win easily. In Virginia, 2006 will be term limited. Open seats Spitzer. The Florida race should be popular moderate Democrat Mark are more likely to change hands. competitive, with Jeb Bush term Warner is limited to serving one term, Republicans hold the governor- limited. –John Fortier

2005 2006 New Jersey Alabama Connecticut Iowa Minnesota Ohio South Dakota Virginia Alaska Florida Kansas Nebraska Oklahoma Tennessee Arizona Georgia Maine Nevada Oregon Texas Arkansas Hawaii Maryland New Hampshire Pennsylvania Vermont California Idaho Massachusetts New Mexico Rhode Island Wisconsin Colorado Illinois Michigan New York South Carolina Wyoming

2004 Governors’ Races: Cost per Vote Eleven states held gubernatorial Democratic Candidate: Republican Candidate: elections in 2004. Fundraising (a State good proxy for spending) by candi- Amount Raised per Vote Amount Raised per Vote dates in these contests ranged from Delaware $3.15 * $4.94 a high of $12.67 per vote (by the losing Republican incumbent in Indiana $3.78 * $3.95 New Hampshire) to a low of $3.15 per vote (by the winning Demo- Missouri $8.57 * $6.01 cratic incumbent in Delaware). Listed here is the amount each can- Montana $4.75 $3.45 * didate in eight of the eleven guber- natorial races raised per vote he or New Hampshire $8.74 $12.67 * she received. Figures for the other Vermont $4.70 $4.10 * states are not available. In four of the states, the winning gubernato- Washington $4.54 * $4.28 rial candidate raised less money per vote received than the losing West Virginia $10.15 * $3.38 candidate. –Barry McMillion Note: The winning candidate’s amount is in bold, and the incumbent or incumbent party is indicated with an asterisk.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 4 Changes in Party Identification in the States Since 1993 there have been dramatic changes within many states in the States Won Change in Republican Change in Democratic Party identification Party identification proportion of individuals who self- by Bush 1993–2004 1993–2004 identify as a Democrat or Republican, or lean to either party. with > 55% of the +8.8 −4.5 Gallup data from 1993 and 2004 vote (21 states) show that Republicans made the greatest inroads in party identifica- with < 55% of the tion among voters in states carried +4.9 +0.70 strongly by George W. Bush, making vote (9 states) their largest gains in Utah (+16.2 percentage points), Idaho (+16.0), West Virginia (+14.7), Montana States Won Change in Republican Change in Democratic (+13.3), and Texas (+12.7). Republi- by Kerry Party identification Party identification cans also scored double-digit gains in 1993–2004 1993–2004 party identification from 1993 to with > 55% of the 2004 in four Southern/border states: +0.10 +5.2 Alabama (+11.7), Georgia (+11.6), vote (8 states) Oklahoma (+11.0), and Louisiana with < 55% of the (+10.2). In only six states did the +4.6 +1.0 number of residents who identify vote (10 states) as Republican decrease or stay roughly the same in this period: Note: A Republican gain/loss in party identification in a state does not always correspond Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, to an equivalent loss/gain in Democratic party identification, and vice versa, because of the Rhode Island, Vermont, and movement of independents. Source: American Enterprise Institute Washington. Like Republicans, Democrats tification in twenty-nine states, with and geographic bases of the two par- made the greatest gains in party iden- the largest losses in Democratic party ties have become polarized. tification between 1993 and 2004 in identification in Georgia, Louisiana, The tables above show that Bush states carried solidly by their candi- Kansas, Oklahoma, and Utah. Since gained more in partisan identification date. The greatest Democratic gains 1993, red states have been getting in states he carried solidly (with 55 were in Vermont (+19.7), New Jersey more “red” in terms of the Republican percent of the vote or more) com- (+8.4), Massachusetts (+7.0), Wash- advantage in identification, and blue pared to states he carried with less ington (+6.7), and Connecticut states have become more “blue” in than 55 percent of the vote. The (+6.2). Democrats suffered losses or terms of a greater Democratic advan- same is true for Kerry. stayed roughly the same in party iden- tage, another sign that the electoral –Barry McMillion

Current Commentary “Stop Messing Around—Call “Campaign Finance Reform “Social Security Public Opinion Barry Bonds” Worked in 2004” Study” AEI Research Fellow John Fortier AEI Resident Scholar Norman Orn- AEI Resident Fellow Karlyn Bow- argues that baseball has not been stein says Congress should now focus man’s public opinion data on Social serious about investigating its steroid on reforming presidential fundraising. Security will be updated every week. problem. http://www.aei.org/news21985 http://www.aei.org/publicOpinion4 http://www.aei.org/publication22135

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