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Democratic National Committee Congressional Campaign Analysis

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Democratic National Committee Congressional Campaign Analysis II. COng:=essional District At-1arg-e Seat - Rep. Jim Santini (D) (78%) - nay rml for Governor. If so, Lt. G:N. PDse will rml for this seat. 11-7-77 III. State of the Party '!he State Party will be effective in the grassroots aspect of ~gn. Did a good job of coordinating the phone banks, registration drives, etc., in 1916, will fill this role in 1978 rather than a major noney role. NEW HAMPSHIRE 1. Governor Meldrim Thompson R (58%) If he runs for reelection (instead of U.S. Senate) he may have liberal Republican primary opposition. The Democratic opposition so far: Hugh Gallen, automobile dealer, came in 3rd in the gubernatorial primary in 1974 and 1976, moderate Democrat; Silvio Dupuis, former mayor of Manchester, strongest in the field against Thompson, good candidate, but his family is STRONGLY opposed to his running; Clesson Blaisbell, State Senator, pro-state income tax platform, unknown; Dell Downing, · Senate: Minority leader, unknown; Bob Preston, State Senator, unknown; and Dick Stanton, mayor of Manchester, unknown. If Thompson doesn't run for reelection about 10 Republicans will run for his seat. If Thompson does run for reelection he must be considered a strong favorite. l 7/11/77 NEW HAMPSHIRE Thomas McIntyre (D) - is seeldng a fourth tenn. He has no clear cut opposition at this date but several Republicans are looking. McIntyre has strong labor support and has done his hom:work. He is perceived as low keyed and has not had a hard fought race in years. However, the DurkinlWyman race left its mark on all N.H. politicos and McIntyre is getting ready to do battle. '!be ~2!lchester Union Leader and its pistol-totingjJublisher W1ll1am Loeb want to see (Governor) Meldrim Thomson in the U.S. Senate. Thompson would Jil<:e to oppose Senator Durldn but may not be able to wait. He is ultra-conservative, nationally mown, and the darling of the union leaders. Thompson would not have either money or name recognition problems and would be a tough oppOnel'1.t. If Thorr:pson runs, look for substantial help from the R.N.C. and conservative money. Sane lesser known Republicans are looking to run and would make it much easier for McIntyre if Thompson should pass. They are Senate President Alf Jacobson, a well financed liberal, and Governor f s councilor Lou j)'i"'lfne­ sandra, a m::xierate. No recent polls have been taken. The party is united and wants to hold onto its three Federal-offices. 7/11/77 NEW HAMPSHIRE III. House Both First District Congressman Norm D'Amours (D)(69%) and Second Dictrict Congressman James Cleveland (R)(6l%) appear to be fairly safe. 7/11/77 NEW HAMPSHIRE IV. State of the Party The Democritic Party wants Thompson out of office. He is their number one target and they will actively work for his defeat. Thompson seems to be moving for re­ election one last time with the hope of facing Durkin in a 1980 Senate race. ( 7/11/77 NEW JER3EY Senator Clifford Case (R) -- '!he issue is whether Senator Clifford Case will run for reelection. As usual them are rmors indicating l::oth that he will run and that he won't run. case has been SQIlEf..mat evasive. Thus far his policy seems to be keeping his opti<XlS open as ImJdl as pcssible. l-bst cbservers, including m:::st high ranking Ce:rocrats in NeH' Jersey, agree that Case is unbeatable. He is ilrm:nsely popular with the voters, has been reelected a ntmber of ti.rres, and has dale nothing whidl would haIln his standing with the voters of New Jersey. Possible Democratic dlallengers: A nurri:ler of r::emxrats have indicated that they might be interested in running for the Senate seat: P!:bert PDe}who was defeated in the Gubematorial prirrary by G:>ve.mor Byme/has suggested that he might run. Too, Congressman Jim Florio, who also ran in the Gubematorial primaJ::y, has indicated that he is considering running for the Senate. Although Florio finished fourth in the Gubematorial pri.mal:y he is regarded by New Jersey politia:s as a rising star of the r::enocratic party. Jarres Shue, a well knaYIl, wealthy m:m who is not presently in govenmEl1t is said to have designs on the Senate seat. It is agreed by nost c::bservers that ncne of these potential r:enocratic candidates could defeat Case. Ihem is, however, one potential Cerrocratic candidate who might beat Case; fo:tlIEr basketball player Bill Bradley is gearing up for a run at the S""enate seat. Our source made it very clear that Bradley wants this to be kept absolutely secret because he does not want to bec:xJIte involved in the gubematorial race, (Byme and Bradley are not and never have been close) • Bradley wishes to make his announcerrent in either Noverrber or I:ec:errber. Bradley is very popular with people in New Jersey, and the r::e.rrocratic party leaders would love to have him run. If Bradley dces enter the ,race, and it seems relatively sure that he will, 5p:0.l­ lation is that Case will net run. case is old and would have a v-e.ry tough ca:rrpaign against Bradley. SOurces in the Se.'1ate believe that Case w-ould not want to enter sudl a difficult race. If Case dces not run, the likely PepubliC2Il candidate is M3.tthetl Rinaldo, who is a Netl Jersey Congressman. Rinaldo is well-liked and well­ Iesp:ct...od. Hcweve.r, it is agreed that he would be a sacrificial larb if he w"eI'e ~led to run against Bradley. 'n1e New Jersey State party is $185,000 in debt. 'n1ey have not had, until recently, a State party office. Jim Dugan, foncer State party d1.a.i..l:man, was not effective in unifying the party during his tenure. M:Jst of the political paver has rested in the hands of the County dlail::Iren. Dugan has bee.'1 replaced by Pidlard "Dick" Cbffee, who at one tirre wolked for Covemor Byme and is new his Carrpaign M3nager. M:Jst Cerrocrats in New Jersey are pleased by Coffee's election and anticipate a rejuvenation of the party under his leadership. 'lhe initial goal is t"w~ pronged: reduce the Party's deficit and to get Covemor Byme reelected. Ihe sUCf""Oss of l::oth these c::b jecti'V'eS will affect their ability to assist in the Senate race. ll. Q:mgressional District 9th COngresSional "District - Harold Hollenbeck (R) (54%) H:>llenbeck w:>n by defeating the incumbent Heru:y Helstoski. Three other candidates of th: Independent and Lil:ertarial Parties ran but have 00 impact on the race. Hbllen1:eck's victory can be largely attril:uted to Helstoski's ~g indict:m:nt. This district is traditionally DemXratic. A probable rarocratic candidate for this seat is AI Burstein, a State Assemblyrcan of 6-8 years, fran Tenafly, New Jersey. He has th: support of lal:x:>r and is well received by the public. He is described as a "liberals liberal". His only liability may be that he appears too intellectual fran t.irre to t.irre. Burstein w:>uld need financial supp::>rt. He considered running aginst Helstoski. 7th COngressional District - Andrew Maguire (D) (57%) W:>n by defeating Jarres Sheehan in 1976. The 7th has a large number of registered Republicans due to a redistricting naneuver by the Republicans. M3.guire is regarded to be seriously oonsidering the Senate seat which may be vacated by Senator Case. If M3.guire runs for the Senate, the District ~d need a strong Dercocratic candidate to h:>ld the seat. M3.guire does not have a large financial base. If Maguire stays in the 7th as Congressrran, he will be a slight favorite for reelection. 12th Congressional District - Matt Rinaldo (R) (73%) ~. ; Rinaldo may run for Senate if Case retires. If this is an open seat amId be w:>n by the Dercocrats based on the district I s past voting patterns. 13th COngressional District - Helen ~yner (D) (51%) She w:>n by defeating William E. Schluter. The district was first created in 1972. ~yner will undoubtedly run again in 1978 and while her p::>pularity has grown, she will face stiff Republican opp::>sition in a district that was created by and for a Republican by the Republican Legislature of that t..irre. In addition, Meyner is one of 17 Dercocratic u. S • Representatives included in a National Republican Congressional Cornnittee - "National Drive to C'efeat Liberal Dercocrats". She has the supp::>rt of laror but may need SatE help financially. No Dercocratic challenge is expected. 14th Congressional District - Joseph LeFante (D) (50%) An untraditionally Dem:x:ratic district but hJtly contested by G.O.P. in 1976. 15th Congressional District -Edward Patten (D) (59%) Patten is a veteran Derrocrat who might be regarded as vulnerable by the Republicans, especially considering his 1972 tough reelection fight and his old age - 72. 7-11-77 III. State of the party The New Jersey State Party needs a strong Chainran. The party has had to deso1ve its fonnal operation because of indebtedness ($180, 000) • Congressional ItlEml:ers cannot expect Imlch if any assistance from the State Party. until recently, the State Party has not even had an office arrl no'st of the p::>litical ~ has reste3. in the hands of the Cbtmty Chainran. The new State Chainran, Richard "Dick" Coffee, is a forner Brendan Byrne staffer and current Byrne Campaign Manager.
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