SECTOR UPDATE REPORT MNC Sekuritas Research Division | November, 6 2018
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR UPDATE Serene, Until The Moment is Back
3Q18 Result: Positive Performance, while New Contracts still Below Target The construction players reported a positive performance along 3Q18. Revenues were observed to increase an average by 20.67% YoY (vs 61.30% YoY in 3Q17), reflecting 64.03%/63.00% of the MNCS/Consensus target. Meanwhile, average net income increased to 18.76% YoY (vs 96.22% YoY in 3Q17), reflecting 63.86%/58.27% of the MNCS/Consensus target. Although it continues to grow, we assess the performance of the construction sector beginning to slow down, as a result of few contracts secured in 3Q18 only 39.47% of the companies target. Construction companies are thus currently focusing on projects acquired in a previous period.
Threats and Opportunity in Political Year Historically, incumbent tends to indulge in populist expenditures ahead of general elections. In doing so, it reveals a tendency to starve the infrastructure budget, shifting funds to the subsidy budget–particularly energy subsidies, which were observed to increase by 90.83% YoY in FY07- FY08 and 53.16% YoY in FY12-FY13. Infrastructure development tends to trend downward and stagnate in a political year, as indicated by a -5.74% YoY decrease in new contract value during the FY09 election. However, the value of new contracts was observed to recover gradually post- election, up by 10.59%/48.66% YoY in FY10/FY11 YoY, reviving attractiveness of the construction sector. The same trend occurred in FY17, where new contract value stagnate by 1.27% YoY. Thus we project new contract growth to stagnate in FY18E to FY19F, with just +0.15% YoY in FY19F, as there will be an election in FY19F. New contract value is expected to rise again in FY20F/FY21F, along with the development of infrastructure as an economic driver.
Funding issues Persist a Main Focus Funding is still a major challenge in the construction sector, as the APBN has not been able to raise cash for all PSN projects, signifying money has to be sought from three institutions: 1) Government, with a portion of 12.50%; 2) SOEs at 29.97%; 3) The private sector at 57.51%. In its effort to realize PSN construction, the Government has set aside IDR525 trillion in funds from the state budget.
NEUTRAL Recommendations with Selected Stock: PTPP and WSBP We consider that construction sector growth will be relatively limited from FY18E until 1H19F, due to: 1) Limited infrastructure funding ahead of elections; 2) FDI, as one of the funding sources, not having shown a significant increase; 3) Volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate. We thus maintain a NEUTRAL rating for the construction sector, with PTPP (BUY TP; IDR 2,050) and WSBP (BUY TP; IDR 500) as top picks.
Market Cap P/E (x) PBV (x) Target Price Ticker Rec. (IDR bn) FY18E FY19F FY18E FY19F (IDR) ADHI 4,629.10 7.03 8.89 0.71 0.67 BUY 1,740 Research Associate PTPP 8,896.85 5.39 5.25 0.56 0.51 BUY 2,050
Muhamad Rudy Setiawan WIKA 10,853.64 8.30 6.27 0.78 0.71 BUY 1,850 [email protected] WSKT 20,700.22 4.67 4.85 1.61 1.33 BUY 2,115 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52317 WSBP 8,453.57 6.68 5.84 0.98 0.84 BUY 500 Sources: Bloomberg, MNCS (as of November 5 2018)
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Positive Performance, The construction players reported a positive performance along 3Q18. Revenues were while New Contracts observed to increase an average by 20.67% YoY (vs 61.30% YoY in 3Q17), reflecting still Below Target 64.03%/63.00% of the MNCS/Consensus target. ACST led the highest 3Q18 revenue growth at 40.54% YoY, followed by WIKA (32.30% YoY), WSKT (26.98% YoY), WSBP (8.53% YoY) and ADHI (8.23% YoY). Meanwhile, PTPP reported the lowest growth compared to peers at just 7.45% YoY. Furthermore, average net income increased to 18.76% YoY (vs 96.22% in 3Q17), reflecting 63.86%/58.27% of the MNCS/Consensus target. ADHI booked high net profit growth compared to others 63.61% YoY in 3Q18, followed by WSKT (43.83% YoY), WIKA (26.05% YoY) and WSBP (7.23% YoY). While PTPP and ACST net profit slid by -11.65%/-16.50% YoY, due to increase interest expenses, to 94.98%/302.18% YoY respectively in 3Q18. Although it continues to grow, we assess the performance of the construction sector beginning to slow down, as a result of few contracts secured in 3Q18 only 39.47% of the companies target. Furthermore, top-line and bottom-line growth in 3Q18 were uninspiring compared to previous period 3Q17 top-line and bottom-line averages grew 61.30%/96.22% YoY.
Exhibit 01. MNCS Forecast vs Consensus
Revenue (IDR bn) Growth Achievement Avg.3yrs Net Income (IDR bn) Growth Achievement Avg.3yrs Company 9M18 9M17 3Q18 2Q18 YoY QoQ MNCS Cons 9M15-9M17 9M18 9M17 3Q18 2Q18 YoY QoQ MNCS Cons 9M15-9M17
ADHI 9,432 8,715 3,349 2,941 8.23% 13.89% 45.77% 51.96% 55.55% 336 205 123 139 63.61% -11.90% 51.96% 43.29% 35.46%
ACST 2,734 1,945 1,075 925 40.54% 16.18% 80.78% 74.77% 66.34% 93 111 19 35 -16.50% -43.59% 50.83% 44.25% 54.02%
PTPP 14,787 13,762 5,280 5,824 7.45% -9.34% 56.48% 55.15% 63.87% 875 990 395 324 -11.65% 22.02% 53.75% 51.45% 58.26%
WIKA 21,004 15,876 8,026 6,720 32.30% 19.44% 66.50% 76.20% 59.89% 860 683 343 346 26.05% -0.82% 76.20% 55.16% 54.41%
WSBP 5,439 5,011 1,593 1,550 8.53% 2.76% 64.00% 63.09% 67.77% 885 825 736 1,470 7.23% -49.90% 70.51% 71.94% 80.83%
WSKT 36,233 28,534 13,333 10,503 26.98% 26.94% 70.65% 71.21% 58.15% 3,727 2,591 194 180 43.83% 7.98% 89.20% 83.56% 55.62%
Source : Company, MNCS Exhibit 02. New Contract Achievement in 3Q18
3Q18 2018E
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 IDRBn 66.09% 30,000 44.23%
20,000 49.57% 16.66%
8.13% 52.11% 10,000
0 PTPP WSBP ADHI WIKA WSKT ACST
Source : Company, MNCS
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Exhibit 03. Performance Companies in 9M18
Revenue Growth Net Income Growth
70% 63.61% 60%
50% 43.83% 40.54% 40% 32.30% 26.98% 30% 26.05% 20% 8.53% 8.23% 7.45% 7.23% 10% 0% -10% -20% -11.65% -16.50% -30% ADHI ACST PTPP WIKA WSKT WSBP
Source : Company, MNCS
Exhibit 04. Earnings Cycle Trend FY15-FY18E
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E/MNCS FY18E/Cons
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% ADHI ACST PTPP WIKA WSKT WSBP average
Source : Company, MNCS
Exhibit 05. Debt to Equity Ratio in 3Q18
3
2.5 Max 2.5
2.23 2
1.5
1.35 1.34 1 0.95 0.82 0.75 0.5
0 WSKT ACST ADHI WIKA PTPP WSBP
Source : Company, MNCS
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PSN Target in FY19F, Currently, the construction players are still focusing on project acquaried in a Commitment to Realize 68 previous period. However, the Government's commitment, as displayed by the Project Committee to Accelerate Priority Infrastructure Provision (KPPIP) is to be able to complete 68 of the planned 245 National Strategy Projects (PSN). There are 30 projects in FY16-FY17, marking an investment of IDR94.81 trillion, 13 projects with an investment of IDR46.78 trillion in FY18E, and 25 projects valued at IDR118.88 trillion in FY19F.
Exhibit 06. Project Realized in FY16-FY17
2016 Project Value (IDR Bn) Gempol Toll Road 1,470 PLBN & SP Belu 82 Juwata Airport 1,390 Fatmawati Soekarno Airport 1,670 Mutiara Airport 1,390 Matahora Airport 662 Labuan Bajo Airport 662 Terminal 3 Soekarno Hatta 4,700 Kalibaru Port 12,000 Pipe Gas Belawan 1,210 PLBN & SP Entikong 152 Sentani Airport 1,470 PLBN & SP Motamassin 128 PLBN & SP Skouw 166 Dum Paya Seunara 57 Dum Rajui 138 Dum Jatigede 4,820 Dum Bajulmati 454 Dum Nipah 213 Dum Titab 496 Total 33,330
2017 Project Value (IDR Bn) Soreang Toll Road 1,510 Mojokerto Toll Road 4,980 Road Acces Tj. Priok 6,270 Raden Inten II Airport 1,470 Field Jangkrik North East 45,500 PLBN & SP Nanga Badau 154 PLBN & SP Aruk 131 PLBN & SP Wini 130 Dum Teritip 262 Irrigation Umpu 1,078 Total 61,485
Source : KPPIP, MNCS
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Exhibit 07. Expectation Project Realized in FY18E-FY19F
2018E Project Value (IDR Bn) BECAKAYU Toll Road 7,200 Bogor Ring Road 983 Prabumulih-Kertapati Train 1,130 Tebing Tinggi - Kuala Tanjung Train 750 Sultan Babullah Airport 1,350 Tjilik Riwut Airport 323 Kupang Port 223 Irrigation Jambo 240 Irrigation Leuwigoong 300 Rehabilitation of Irrigation Area Gumbasa 159 Smelter Morowali 34,000 Marine & Fisheries Center Talaud 106 Palapa Ring Broadband Total 46,764
2019F Project Value (IDR Bn) Palapa Ring Broadband 5,840 Smelter Bantaeng 2,220 Irrigation Lematang 279 Toll Road Manado-Bitung 5,120 Toll Road Balikpapan-Samarinda 9,970 Toll Road Medan-Binjai 1,600 Toll Road Palembang-Indralaya 3,300 Toll Road Bakauheni-terbanggi 16,790 Toll Road Medan-Kualanamu-Lubuk Pakam-Tb Tinggi 4,070 Toll Road pejagan-Pemalang 6,840 Toll Road Pemalang-batang 4,080 Toll Road Batang-Semarang 11,000 Toll Road Semarang-Solo 7,440 Toll Road Solo-Ngawi 11,340 Toll Road Ngawi-Kertosono 3,830 Toll Road Kertosono-Mojokerto 5,500 Toll Road Gempol-Pasuruan 2,760 Toll Road Kunciran-Serpong 3,480 Flyover Teluk Lamong 900 Train Adi Sumarno Airport 925 Syamsuddin Noor Airport 2,310 Kertajati Airport 4,910 Ahmad Yani Airport 2,180 KEK Maloy Port 204 Makassar Airport 1,890 Total 118,778
Source : KPPIP, MNCS
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Lower Infrastructure Budget Historically incumbent tends to indulge in populist expenditures ahead of general along Pre-Election year elections. In doing so, it reveals a tendency to starve the infrastructure budget, shifting funds to the subsidy budget–particularly energy subsidies, which were observed to increase by 90.83% YoY in FY07-FY08 and 53.16% YoY in FY12-FY13. We suggest that the increase in energy subsidies has the potential to return in FY18E in line with the increase in the 2018 State Budget, reaching IDR103.4 trillion or growing by 15.08% YoY. We estimate the realization of energy subsidies will increase significantly in a range of USD65-75/barrel which supported by a +22.83% YTD rise in world crude oil prices in 1H18. This, will potentially criple other budget strategies the infrastructure budget only increased by 5.16% YoY in FY18E (vs 41% YoY in FY17) not nearly as aggressively as before.
Exhibit 08. Infrastructure Budget vs Energy Subsidies
Growth Infrastructure (RHS) Growth Energy Subsidies (RHS)
80.00 69.1 65.5
60.00 48.1 41.0
40.00
16.8 20.00 5.2 7.2 5.1 2.4 -0.8
% 0.00 -9.6 8.2 -20.00 -27.9
-40.00
-60.7 -60.00
-80.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E RAPBN 2019
Source : Ministry of Finance, MNCS
Exhibit 09. Trend of Energy Subsidies
Energy Subsidies Growth
400 90.83% 100% PRE ELECTION ELECTION PRE ELECTION PRE ELECTION
350 69.13% 80%
53.16% 52.24% 60% 300 35.63% 40%
250 23.53% 10.26%
3.64% 20% 200
-9.42% 5.16% 0% IDR IDR Trillion 150 -20%
100 -15.82% -40% -10.33% -65.16% 50 -60%
-57.59% 0 -80% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E RAPBN 2019
Source : Ministry of Finance, MNCS
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New Contracts Potentially Infrastructure development tends to trend downward and stagnate in a political year, Increased, Post-Election as indicated by a -5.74% YoY decrease in new contract value during the FY09 election. However, the value of new contracts was observed to recover gradually post -election, up by 10.59%/48.66% YoY in FY10/FY11 YoY, reviving attractiveness of the construction sector. The same trend occurred in FY17, where new contract value stagnate by 1.27% YoY. Thus we project new contract growth to stagnate in FY18E to FY19F, with just +0.15% YoY in FY19F, as there will be an election in FY19F. New contract value is expected to rise again in FY20F/FY21F, along with the development of infrastructure as an economic driver.
Exhibit 10. Trend of New Contract
ADHI PTPP WIKA WSKT
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source : Company, MNCS
Limited Funding is still a Funding is still a major challenge in the construction sector, as the APBN has not Main Focus been able to raise cash for all PSN projects, signifying money has to be sought from three institutions: 1) Government, with a portion of 12.50%; 2) SOEs at 29.97%; 3) The private sector at 57.51%. In its effort to realize PSN construction, the Government has set aside IDR525 trillion in funds from the state budget. Meanwhile there are serious concerns that the realization will not reach its target. In our view, factors potentialy hampering funding include: 1) Realized tax revenue of IDR900.86 trillion, or just 63.26% of the FY18E target (+16.87% YoY) in 3Q18; 2) Greater foreign debt, which grew by 6.70% YoY in 8M18; even though the debt/GDP ratio was at a reasonable 34.34% in 2Q18, the government is bound to be more selective in its policy of cranking up national debt. Based on these factors, we conclude that any increase in the infrastructure budget will be limited in FY19F.
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"Creative Financing" as a SOEs as institutions involved in infrastructure development carry out various styles of Solution to Overcoming funding: 1) RDPT Scheme (Limited Participation Funds); 2) IPO/spin off subsidiary 3) Financing Needs BUMN Fund scheme. WSKT, as the pioneer of independent funding instruments, managed by issuing RDPT to reap IDR5 trillion in proceeds from its divestment. Meanwhile, PTPP issued perpetual securities (SBP) in 4M18, where the debt-to-equity (DER) ratio was maintained at a level of 0.77x. Meanwhile ADHI spin off its hotel and TOD subsidiaries, in hopes of strengthening its capital posture through a subsidiary IPO scheme. On the other hand, several SOEs formed joint ventures as an effort to secure infrastructure funding: PT Bandha Investasi Indonesia was formed from eight companies banding together, setting funding targets of up to USD2-3 billion. We suggest working capital funding schemes for infrastructure development are likely to become increasingly creative and varied in the future, with SOE portion amounting to IDR1,258 trillion or 29.97%. Current construction company average DER ratio stands at 1.24x (3Q18 figure). Thus, construction issuers will need to maintain a leverage ratio for the future sustainability of their businesses.
FDI will be Needed for Limited funding from the Government and SOEs will be a potential obstacle to Sustainability of growth of infrastructure development. Thus, the private sector needs to be more Infrastructure Development involved, both in terms of development and funding, where it plays an important role with share ownership of IDR2,414 trillion or 57.51% of infrastructure development. Based on the BKPM, most private sector funding is still dominated by domestic investment, with a capital value of IDR13.60 trillion in 1H18, a significant increase over a previous figure of only IDR11.01 trillion in 1H17. However, the significant increase in domestic investment has not yet been matched by a corresponding increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) which was recorded at only USD108.9 million in 1H18 (vs USD81.6 million in 1H17). FDI for the construction sector only made the 18th rank. We suggest that balancing the domestic (DDI) and foreign (FDI) portions of private sector investment will be the key to success in infrastructure project development.
Exhibit 11. Infrastructure Projection Maps
Source : KPPIP
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Exchange Rate Volatility has The weakening of the Rupiah against the USD which occurred in 1H18, diving past the the potential to eat away at psychological level of IDR14,300-Rp14,500/USD, could potentially raise contract value. Margins: Contract The inexorable dependence of construction companies on imported raw materials will Renegotiation Required! inevitably raise exposure to exchange rates: raw material purchases can raise or depress margins. MNCS estimates that this potential exchange rate weakening will continue in FY19F, to close at a psychological level of IDR15,000/USD. One strategy that can be implemented by construction companies in dealing with the effects of exchange rate depreciation is to urge contract renegotiation, aiming to cut losses on ongoing project work. However, we admit that any contract renegotiation would run the risk of extending contract time, resulting in project delays. NEUTRAL Recommendation We consider that construction sector growth will be relatively confined from FY18E until for Selected Shares: PTPP 1H19F, due to: 1) Limited infrastructure funding ahead of elections; 2) FDI, a critical and WSBP funding source, as not having shown any significant increase; 3) Volatility of the Rupiah exchange rate. We thus maintain a NEUTRAL rating for the construction sector, with top picks PTPP (BUY TP; IDR 2,050) and WSBP (BUY TP; IDR 500).
Exhibit 12. PE Band ADHI Exhibit 13. PE Band ACST
PE RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2 PE RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2
30.00 50.00 45.00
25.00 40.00
35.00 20.00 30.00
15.00 25.00 20.00
10.00 15.00
10.00 5.00 5.00
- - Jun/16 Jun/17 Jun/18 Jun/16 Jun/17 Jun/18 Oct/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Oct/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Apr/16 Apr/17 Apr/18 Dec/15 Feb/16 Dec/16 Feb/17 Dec/17 Feb/18 Dec/15 Feb/16 Apr/16 Dec/16 Feb/17 Apr/17 Dec/17 Feb/18 Apr/18 Aug/16 Aug/17 Aug/18 Aug/16 Aug/17 Aug/18
Exhibit 14. PE Band PTPP Exhibit 15. PE Band WIKA
PE RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2 PE RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2 35.00 35.00 30.00 30.00 25.00 25.00
20.00 20.00
15.00 15.00
10.00 10.00
5.00 5.00
- - Jun/16 Jun/17 Jun/18 Oct/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Apr/16 Apr/17 Apr/18 Dec/15 Feb/16 Dec/16 Feb/17 Dec/17 Feb/18 Aug/16 Aug/17 Aug/18 Jun/16 Jun/17 Jun/18 Oct/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Dec/15 Feb/16 Apr/16 Dec/16 Feb/17 Apr/17 Dec/17 Feb/18 Apr/18 Aug/16 Aug/17 Aug/18
Exhibit 16. PE Band WSBP Exhibit 17. PE Band WSKT
PE RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2 PE RATIO MEAN STD-1 STD-2 STD+1 STD+2
60.00 30.00
50.00 25.00
40.00 20.00
30.00 15.00 20.00
10.00 10.00
- 5.00
(10.00) - Jul/17 Jul/18 Jan/17 Jun/17 Jan/18 Jun/18 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Feb/17 Apr/17 Feb/18 Apr/18 Sep/16 Dec/16 Sep/17 Dec/17 Sep/18 Mar/17 Aug/17 Mar/18 Aug/18 Nov/16 May/17 Nov/17 May/18 Oct/15 Jun/16 Oct/16 Jun/17 Oct/17 Jun/18 Oct/18 Feb/16 Apr/16 Feb/17 Apr/17 Feb/18 Apr/18 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17 Aug/16 Aug/17 Aug/18
Source : Bloomberg, MNCS
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MNC SEKURITAS RESEARCH TEAM Thendra Crisnanda Edwin J. Sebayang I Made Adi Saputra Head of Institutional Research, Strategy Head of Retail Research, Technical, Auto, Mining Head of Fixed Income Research [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52162 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52233 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52117 Victoria Venny Tomy Zulfikar Ikhsan Hadi Santoso Telco, Toll Road, Logistics, Consumer, Poultry Research Analyst Junior Analyst of Fixed Income [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52236 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52316 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52235
Rr. Nurulita Harwaningrum Khazar Srikandi Krestanti Nugrahane Widhi Banking, Auto, Plantation Research Associate Research Associate, Plantation, Consumer [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52237 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52313 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52166
Muhamad Rudy Setiawan Sukisnawati Puspitasari Research Associate, Property, Construction Research Associate, Cement, Mining [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52317 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52307
MNC SEKURITAS EQUITY SALES TEAM
T. Heldy Arifien Okhy Ibrahim Nesya Kharismawati Head of Institution Senior Equity Institutional Sales Senior Equity Institutional Sales [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52310 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52180 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52182
Harun Nurrosyid Gilang Ramadhan Iman Hadimulya, ST Senior Equity Institutional Sales Senior Equity Institutional Sales Senior Equity Institutional Sales [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52187 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52178 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52174
Agus Eko Santoso Gina Mutiara Senior Equity Institutional Sales Junior Equity Sales [email protected] [email protected] (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52185 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52181
MNC Research Investment Ratings Guidance BUY : Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months HOLD : Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% of the next 12 months SELL : Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated : Stock is not within regular research coverage PT MNC SEKURITAS MNC Financial Center Lt. 14 – 16 Jl. Kebon Sirih No. 21 - 27, Jakarta Pusat 10340 Telp : (021) 2980 3111 Fax : (021) 3983 6899 Call Center : 1500 899
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