NREL Powerpoint Presentation Template with Dark Background

Meeting our Transportation Challenges: What Does The Future Hold?

Terry Penney, Laboratory Program Manager Advanced Vehicles and Fuel Technologies National Renewable Energy Laboratory Three Major Messages

• The big picture – There are more than 230M vehicles in the US – whatever changes occurring now in either advanced vehicles or alternative fuels, will take decades to change the fleet • Profound energy impacts coming - The impacts of existing or new energy sources, carbon, smart grid, smart growth and economic prosperity in the world will have a profound impact and will come sooner than expected • Plan and act now for the long term – tools, information and best practice examples are available everywhere – be a leader! Growth Projection: Build 200 billion sq. feet for 70 million more people by 2030 Creating ten megapolitans

Seattle

Portland Boston Chicago Pittsburgh New York City Sacramento Detroit Washington San Francisco Kansas City Las Vegas Raleigh-Durham

Phoenix Los Angeles Dallas Atlanta Tuscon San Antonio New Orleans Houston Tampa Miami

Source: Business 2.0, 11/05 “$25 Trillion Land Grab” Traffic Congestion, Delhi The “Vending Machine” solution to mass car parking lots (German engineering at the extreme) The Environment (Near-term)

• Now to 3 yrs (2012) – PHEVs from several vendors in the market – EVs from a few vendors available – Smart Grid reaches 30% of consumers – Substantial vehicle purchase incentives – Election year – Economy on up turn for last 18 months – Surge in consumer home energy monitoring equipment – Growing consumer perception of energy issues – Gasoline at $4/gal The Environment (Mid-term)

• 3-6 yrs (2012-2015) – Economic recovery plateaus (no more stimulus) – PHEVs less than 5% of sales even with incentives – EV introductions from several vendors – Charging infrastructure installed along major highways and in city centers – All gen1 HEV batteries retired (available for second use?) – Original PHEV conversion and OEM batteries degraded – Carbon Tax/Trade system in place – Smart Grid mature – 20% national RPS in place – Xcel reaches 20% renewable goal – Consumer in home energy monitoring equipment becomes common place – Social Networking on Energy use? – Gasoline at $5-6/gal in 2015 – Massive growth in other countries influencing US The Environment (Long-term)

• 2030 - 20 years • 2050 - 40 years – Full turn over of vehicle fleet from baseline year – 75% of fleet miles are electrified – 40% fleet market share of plug-ins? – Petroleum consumption 10% of – EVs at 10% fleet sales transportation – Petroleum 60% of transportation – Renewables serve 30-50% of – PEV batteries used for 5 years in grid load regionally support functions – 1.5-3C global mean temp rise - – Mass transit affects need for vehicles climate change impacts – World energy demand constrained dramatic – Wants – Several types of energy storage • Robust personal mobility system incorporated into grid – Needs – Wants • Fast charging locations with distribution upgrades • Communications infrastructure to – Needs support alternative distributed • Advanced personal mobility workplaces system to overcome congestion and consumption challenges U.S. Demand for Fuels Outstrips Supply Light-duty vehicles are driving the growth in oil demand

2007

U.S. Production gap The Environment and Oil AugDecSeptJunJan 2007200720082007

Percent of Petroleum Consumption - US 2007

5% 2% Transportation

Industrial

Residential and 24% Commercial 69% Electric Power

20 Yrs 40 Yrs

52mbpd? Now 3 Yrs6 Yrs 22mbpd? http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/update

10 The “Big” Picture…… Summary of Fuel Switching and Efficiency Pathways and Opportunities Biomass Conversion Efficient conversion Gasification, Capture, & and feedstock Sequestration development Validation of sequestration Biomass Integration with gasification processes

Carbon Fuels

Coal & Unconventional Hydrocarbons Hydrogen

Hydrogen RD&D Nuclear Cost & energy density of on-board storage & use Distribution and carbon-free production infrastructure

Electricity Vehicle Efficiency Renewable Energy Storage Advanced High performance combustion, materials and lightweight materials, systems reduced parasitic losses Systems Approach Propulsion and auxiliary systems improvements Optimization across supply, delivery, end use and intersections with other infrastructures

Increased “Cow Power” too! Biofuels are not “the only” answer

GHG Emission Reduction

-Biobutanol -HDRD Maybe the Future Can Look More Like This Auto’s in Daily use around the world… and “sneak” preview of some “advanced” designs!

• How long do cars last? • Do all cars go to the junk yard? • Creative uses for cars? • “Pimp my ride” concepts Considering Emissions?

Let’s move across country! Public School Bus – 10 seater! Advanced Vehicles and Fuels Options Hydrogen Conventional Hybrid Electric Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles—ICE Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles or Fuel Cell

Corn Ethanol, Cellulosic Ethanol Electricity Hydrogen from Grid from Natural Biodiesel, Fischer-Tropsch Diesel Gas Distributed Natural Gas other Petrochemicals Renewable Renewable Electricity Hydrogen The Latest “Buzz” - PHEVs Renewable Fuels for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Communication Solar Wind

Utility Interface

Energy Storage Biofuels

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Consumption Benefits of PHEV Technology Tied to Usage Pattern

PHEV Benefits Efficiency in Charge-Sustaining Mode Petroleum Displacement in Charge-Depleting Mode

Conventional ~10-35%

~35-70% Hybrid

Consumption Plug-In Hybrid Distance

24 Charge-Depleting Mode Charge-Sustaining Mode PHEVs with Renewables Provide CO2 Benefits Power Plant-Specific PHEV Emissions in 2010 PHEV 20 – 12,000 Annual Miles 500

450 e/mile) 2 CO

400 (g

350

300 Emissions

Gas 250

200

150 Greenhouse

100 Wheels

‐ 50 to ‐ ‐ Well CC CC CC GT GT

SPC CCS

Coal Coal IGCC

‐ Adv Vehicle Vehicle Nuclear Nuclear

Adv 2010 2010 Biomass 2010 2010

Old

with

‐

New ‐ ‐

PHEV Renewables Adv Old Old New New ‐ ‐ 2010 ‐ IGCC ‐ PHEV Hybrid PHEV 2010 ‐ ‐ PHEV ‐ ‐ Central ‐ ‐ PHEV PHEV PHEV PHEV PHEV PHEV Conventional PHEV PHEV PHEV PHEV

Gasoline Well‐to‐Tank Gasoline Tank‐to‐Wheels Electricity Well‐to‐Wheels

Environmental Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Study. EPRI, 2007. Importance of V2G

• Offset the high cost of energy storage systems for PHEVs • Ability to access a stranded resource and use it to, – Reduce cost of electricity

CO2 from PHEVs – Expand renewable generation with Renewables — Increase grid flexibility and reliability — Achieve CO2 benefits of renewables fuels in transportation

26 EPRI/NRDC PHEV Impacts Study The ORNL PHEV Choice Model supported the Sentech PHEV Market Introduction Study

PHEV PROJECTED SALES

4,000,000 CRNT PLCY 6.1 6.2 phev 3,500,000 6.2 all 6.3hi 1c 6.3hi 5c 6.3hi 10c 3,000,000 6.3hi 100c 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 city 2,500,000 6.7 suburb 6.8 6.9 $450 6.9 $300 2,000,000 6.9 $150

1,500,000

PHEV SALES PHEV SALES (CUMULATIVE) 1M in 2015 1,000,000

500,000

0 27 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 The ORNL PHEV Choice Model was modified to accommodate an advanced gasoline vehicle and a PHEV20.

100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

70.0%

10. Hydrogen Fuel Cell PHEV40 60.0% 8. Hydrogen Fuel Cell PHEV10

8. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Hybrid 50.0% 7. Gasoline PHEV20

6. Gasoline PHEV40 40.0% 5. Gasoline PHEV10

Sales Share Sales 3. Gasoline HEV 30.0% 2. Diesel CI ICE

20.0% 4. Advanced Gasoline SI ICE 1. Gasoline SI ICE

10.0%

0.0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 28 Calendar Year Electric Vehicle Grid Integration focuses on the interface, integration, and interoperability of electrified vehicles, energy storage systems, and the evolving smart, renewable grid. Recent PHEV Announcements Real Soon……..

• With gas at $2/gallon, that number is down to one-quarter (4¢ vs 8¢) and plug-ins will be here soon • (Prius left in 2010? , Chevy Volt right in 2010) Opel Flextreme concept Ford’s new “Fusion” $27,270 base price hybrid 41 mpg city, 36 mpg highway

Not a PHEV but a competitor to Toyota’s HEV Camry with “Prius” like mileage Toyota’s Concepts

Solar Powered iQ

PHEV Fisker’s Sunset PHEV

(~$90K, high performance, 50 mi EV range) BYD’s 60 mile PHEV ~$22,000 (only available in China) Tesla Roadster

~$100K, pure electric 200mi range And More to Come: Chrysler beyond NEVs….

Dodge ZEO

Chrysler ecoVoyager VW 1-Liter Car (100 Kilometers per Liter--That’s 235 mpg) More than 22,000 Sold Mitsubishi EV – “MIEV”

47 kW electric motor, 330V Li battery pack, 80 mi range Subaru Stella

• Four Passenger 50 mph, 50-mile range Italy’s new electric vehicle – B zero Fiat’s “Phylla” REVA-NXG (India)

• Two Passenger 75 mph, 124-mile range Some niche lower cost EVs…..

• Xebra (ZAP!) 40 MPH, 25-mile range

• NmG (Myers Motors) 75 MPH, 45-mile range And other niche vehicles

• Phoenix SUV/SUT 95 MPH, 100-mile range

• Triac (Green Vehicles) 80 MPH, 100-mile range and Neighborhood Electrics….

• GEM e2 (Global Electric Motorcars 25 MPH 35-mile range

• MEGA Tilt Bed (Columbia ParCar) 25 MPH 50-mile range Honda Nissan Franco Sbarro “City Car”

18-mile electric range; 46-mpg gasoline drive; 360º rotation “Big Box” car Venturi’s “Astrolab” Venturi more serious EVs

Venturi’s Fetish

• With 4 drive wheels with active suspension, the Venturi Volage has no equivalent. “Michelin Active Wheel” technology in fact incorporates 2 electric motors per wheel (1 for suspension and 1 for drive) Aptera’s 3 wheeler Personal (one seater) “Big Wheels” And Plug-In Technology is Making it to Heavy-Duty Vehicles as Well

Overhead electrified bus stop

CHINA City of Shanghai Or Charged from Below

AC battery

Power Electronics Power Electronics battery

IC Engine Track Supply PM Synchronous Motor primary coil one-way clutch

Non-contact charge device Tokyo Haneda Airport, JAPAN Hino inductively charged HEV demo for 2007 Tokyo Motor Show State’s Renewable Portfolio Standards

WA: 15% IA: 2% by 1999 by 2020 VT: 10% ME: 40% ND: 10% by 2015 MN: 25% by 2025 + by 2012 by 2017 WI: 10% NY: 24% NH: 23.8% MT: 15% by 2015 by 2025 IL: 25%by 2013 by 2015 MA: 4% OR: 25% by 2025 by 2025 by 2009 RI: 16% NV: 20% by 2019 CT: 27% by 2020 by 2015 CO: 20% NJ:DE: 22.5% 20% by 20192020 by 2020 MD:DC: 11%9.5% by by 2022 2019 CA: 20% AZ: 15% NM: 20% by 2010 by 2025 VA:PA: 12% 8% by by 2022 2020 by 2020 NC: 12.5% by 2021 TX: 5,880 MW (~5.5%) by 2015 RPS HI: 20% by 2020 MO: 10% by 2020 RE Goal

Sources: Union of Concerned Scientists and NREL GREET: What is the Electricity Generation Mix?

Either an average generation mix, such as averages for NERC regions, or some postulated mix (e.g., specified marginal fuel such as 100% renewables) could be used to examine PHEV GHG effects

59 Wind Generation Variability Results in Dispatch Challenges

700 Each Day is a different color. Wind profile pattern in April 2007 600 −Day 29

500 −Day 9

400

−Day 5 −Day 26 300 Megawatts Average 200 −

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

-100 Hour

Smart charging has the potential to dispatch the EV load in alignment with the availability of intermittent resources such as wind

Alec Brooks (Tesla Motors), Sven Thesen (PG&E). V2G Demonstration and Evaluation Program. EVS23. (2007) Venturi Electic – solar, wind Recharge Scenario Impacts on PHEV Petroleum Consumption Benefits

Opportunity charge: connect PHEV charger to grid any time that the vehicle is parked.

No Charge Base Case assumes (PHEV20) one full charge per day

Opportunity Charge (PHEV20) Plug-in HEVs Require No New Capacity and Even Improves Utility Performance Utility Sized for Annual Peak

Peak Shaving Excess Capacity Ratio of peak to base is measure Night-time of utility charging performance of PHEVs

Hours at Load **Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the vehicles in this utility district V2G Systems Analysis with Renewables

• PHEV charge/discharge synchronized with Wind forecast error

• Large battery and market penetration preferred to reduce impact on battery life and fuel consumption

64 PHEVs Can Play a Major Role in Such a Smart Grid or Intelligrid of the Future

Source: Electric Power Research Institute. Fall 2005 EPRI Journal Movement to “smart grid”

This is obviously not “smart”! Grid Internet Sources of Value Green Grid System

System Operators Retail Utilities Home Owners

PUC Government Small Commercial Agencies Customers Peak generation RECs Demand management Distribution deferral Transmission deferral Grid regulation services Environmental & energy agendas Metering, Data Validation Marketing Content Green power Bill reduction Backup power BP Trading Monitoring & BP Solar Monitoring services Control Partner O&M services Green Grid System PV Array Weather Station Grid

System Operators Retail Utilities Home Owners

Energy Storage