Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Technologies, Uses and Perspectives The CVO shall not be held responsible for any error, omission or other result made of the use of these publications and/or the use of any information contained therein. Copyright June 2012 – Corporate Vehicle Observatory. All rights reserved. Any reproduction or distribution, even partial, by any process whatsoever or on any medium whatsoever, shall not be made without the prior written consent of the CVO. Electric and Hybrid vehicles 2012 Revenge of the Electric Car Electric and Hybrid vehicles – June 2012 The criteria used for defining motors cars have considerably evolved in the last decade. The trends have accelerated in the last five years, taking us further away from the times when car manufacturers based their development on the launch of energy-consuming SUVs and other over-powered four-door saloon cars. We are now facing more frugal times. Boosted by external factors such as constant petroleum shocks, measures for limiting Context, Energy, Savings, Environment 5 CO2 emissions and other pollutants, a planetary trend is now under way: the automotive industry on the whole has been focussing on the development of virtuous, fuel-saving A changing automotive industry 11 solutions that emit low levels of polluting, silent gases while maintaining high levels of service and performance. Technology and Equipment 25 With no other choice than to radically evolve or risk encountering difficulties, some groups From plug to motor 35 owe their survival solely to the massive intervention of public finances or takeovers by competitors. This is the case of GM, which has gone bankrupt, and Chrysler which has Performance, constraints and advantages of EVs 41 been sold to Fiat, as well as other European groups such as Volvo and Saab. To face the serious problems involved in adapting their ranges, ‘‘top manufacturers’’ New Technologies to support Electric and Hybrid Vehicles 47 launched the urgent development of new motorisation systems for wider energy efficiency. The Media, Internet and EVs 51 More or less reticent or enthusiastic, depending on the make, in less than five years, all car manufacturers have followed the path opened by Toyota, Honda, Tesla, Think and Seeking new business models: Buy, Hire or Subscribe ? 59 some other innovators, that of electric- and hybrid-powered cars. Following the 2006 documentary entitled “Who killed the electric car”, which questioned What is in store for the future ? 63 what has led to the destruction of thousands of electric cars in the U.S., and more parti- cularly the disappearance of the first electric car by General Motors, Director Chris Paine Appendices 73 came back in the limelight with the launch of the documentary, “Revenge of the Electric Car”, a film based on the renewal of the electric car. For this, Chris Paine and his team conducted a survey with Nissan, General Motors and Tesla. This film revealed the stra- tegic reversal of major car manufacturers with respect to electric power. It illustrates how a new generation of vehicles has entered the market in a few years’ time, vehicles in line with their era, with the greatest energy efficiency of all times. We are truly entering a new age, one of mass production of electric and hybrid cars. It is now up to us to tailor our driving behaviour to these rather particular cars. Philippe Brendel Edito President of the Corporate Vehicle Observatory 2 www.observatoire-vehicule-entreprise.com June 2012 3 Mémento automobile des sociétés Context, Chapter 1 Energy, Savings, Environment Electric and Hybrid vehicles 2012 cle for small journeys, urban and suburban traffic, funded to connect the grid to the new wind and is the electric vehicle. solar farms. Electric propulsion has made a grand entrance into On the petrol front, the tendency will be upward. the automotive industry. Following years of R&D, And the perspectives in future years appear to the automotive channel has included the advan- be quite dark, with many technical factors being tages of electric propulsion. Energy efficiency, high added to the risks of political instability in oil-pro- level motor performance, reduced greenhouse ducing countries. emissions; reliability and silence are the advan- tages of this mode. Rising petrol price: worrisome risk factors Energy Context The forecast for the year 2012 shows prices above These past years, several alarming signals simul- 100 US dollars per barrel, with several factors taneously turned on: sustained increase in oil combined that explain this new surge in crude oil price, gas and electricity, instability in major produ- prices. cing countries, Libya, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, crisis with Iran. Continued growth for demand In 2011, the European Union oil bill amounted to As for demand, its levels prior to the 2008 crisis rapidly-changing automotive market • Thirdly, the consequences of this same pollution 402 billion dollars, against 280 billion in 2010. This have been reached, possibly exceeding them in is now in progress. Ever-increasingly on human health. Polluting particles emanating surge owes much to the weakening of the Euro 2012 (88.1 million barrels/day according to Wood pressing economic and environmental from the combustion of fossil products are harm- against the dollar. It seems inevitable that the price Mackenzie Ltd.). constraints are inciting users to move ful to mankind. of a litre of petrol reaches 2 euros in the near future. towards less-polluting and energy-hungry vehicles Aat a lower operating cost. The consequences of the Fukushima catastrophe Constraints for Drivers on nuclear security, the scheduled shutdown of This market upheaval is due to several factors: Now in a state of alert, at a crossroads of deep nuclear power plants, by higher cost of production, change, it is necessary to take more constraining, or entail electricity costs increase. • Firstly, the absolutely unavoidable increase in even drastic measures following these observations. the price of fossil energies linked to their rarefac- In Europe, every source is increasing: tion. We have entered into a world where petrol Economic and political decision-makers are aware is scarce and costly. While the sharp contraction of the handicaps and nuisances caused by thermal • Petrol: +22% since January 2010: drivers pay of demand due to the world financial crisis has vehicles. They have already begun to make deci- the highest price: in one year time fuels prices lowered prices over several months, the situation sions, limiting the emissions of pollutants (Law on have soared (+22% for unleaded petrol, +8% for has since then been reversed. The rates of fossil air of 30 December 1996), with restrictions for traf- diesel), in the wake of crude prices on the world energies have begun their inexorable ascent. fic in cities, speed limits, urban tolls, and a bonus/ markets. malus insurance system. • Secondly, the degraded climate. The emission of • Electricity: since 2010, the price of Kilowatt polluting and greenhouse effect gases is modifying Today, given the reality of techniques and the eco- hours has increased by just over 6%. The trend atmospheric protection conditions, thus seriously nomy, in order to bring a sustainable response to will be upward sharply in the coming years. The compromising the future of living organisms. environmental constraints, the most efficient vehi- grid is closed to breaking, nuclear is aging and huge infrastructure investments will have to be 6 www.observatoire-vehicule-entreprise.com June 2012 7 Electric and Hybrid vehicles 2012 This demand is highly supported by that of emer- water under pressure per day, this technique made ging countries such as China and India. absolutely necessary by the tank structure. Discoveries down It is therefore a pipeline that brings seawater, from a distance of 160km into the desert to extract petroleum. Discoveries have been receding considerably for several years now, and the situation has not rever- What an enormous project, covering square kilo- sed itself despite the gigantic technological means metres, the scale of which is comparable with rolled out. the extraction site in bituminous sands of Alberta, Canada. For production purposes, this deposit Upturn in production costs must be kept constantly under pressure and gene- rate high production costs, involving a sales price The exploitation of resources is ever more costly, that is much higher than in the past. thus requiring tens of billions of dollars in investment per exploitation. Two examples of this are the deep Ageing of installations and offshore and new production units in Saudi Arabia. age pyramid of employees Deep offshore Another factor, which has been rarely explained, also affects the investments needed to continue to The consequences of the explosion of the Deepwa- produce petroleum: the ageing of existing instal- ter Horizon petrol platform in the Gulf of Mexico in lations and the age pyramid of qualified staff cur- April 2010 included the setting up of safety mea- rently active in the industry. sures that affect the industry on the whole. The US Commission in charge of investigating the causes We owe this analysis to one of the most “listened of the catastrophe recommended, on 11 January to” experts in the field, Matthew R. Simmons, who 2011, the creation of an independent agency in died on 8 August 2010. He was the President and charge of the safety of offshore exploitation. The Executive Director of one of the largest petroleum experts report did not mince its word: “The imme- investment banks, Simmons & Company Interna- diate causes of the explosion can be found in a se- tional. At his last conferences, he raised a crucial ries of identifiable mistakes on the part of BP, Halli- point: The petroleum production and transport burton and Transocean, which reveal such failures system is ill. It has been affected by the ageing of in risk management that there is good reason to employees and by the deterioration of refining and doubt the safety culture of the whole industry”.