360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market Opportunities and New Business Models
Sarwant Singh Partner, Frost & Sullivan Agenda
Future Urban Mobility and Society Trends and Its Implications to Personal Mobility, and Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology Roadmap and Infrastructure Trends
Global EV Market Size and Forecasts – PVs, LCVs and 2 Wheelers
Business Model Analysis of Key Industry Stakeholders (Utilities, charging station and other market participants)
London Case Study
Discussions
2 Definitions
3 Definitions – Electric Vehicles
Battery Electric Vehicles: Electric vehicles (EVs) use electric motors instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) to propel a vehicle. The electric power is derived from a battery of one of several chemistries including lead acid, nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-ion).
Neighbourhood Plug-in Hybrid High-Performance City Electric Vehicles Extended-range Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Electric Vehicles EVs (E-REVs) (NEVs) (CEVs) (PHEVs) (HPEVs)
NEV is a US DOT A city car is a These vehicles have A plug-in hybrid These are sporty classification for European classification an internal combustion electric vehicle (PHEV) PHEVs or battery vehicles weighing less for small and light engine (ICE) or other has an internal electric vehicles with than 3,000 lbs (GVW) vehicles intended for secondary source combustion engine top speeds exceeding and having a top speed use in urban areas connected in a series (ICE) with a motor 100 mph and driving of 25 mph. NEVs are although capable of configuration to a along with a battery range exceeding 100 generally restricted to operating in mixed city- generator to supply the connected in parallel to miles. The price of operate on streets with highway environment. batteries. The drive the ICE. They are these vehicles is a speed limit of 35 mph In Japan, city cars are range and speeds are generally regarded as expected to approach or less. called kei cars. comparable to IC full hybrids with bigger or exceed $100,000. engine vehicles. motor/battery and a plug to recharge.
GEM e2, e4, e6; REVA Smart EV, Th!nk City, Chevy Volt, Opel Toyota Prius PHEV, Tesla, Venturi Fetish, G-Wiz i; ZENN; ZAP BMW Mini and others Ampera and others Ford Fusion PHEV, etc Lightning GT, etc and others
4 Definitions – Charging Stations
Home Semi-Public Public charging Charging charging
Vehicle charging at users residences, Vehicle charging at office workplaces The non-residential and non- in their garages, drive ways and at which are including in/outdoor office workplace charging including on apartment complexes as well as street garages, commercial complex parking streets, private garages, supermarket garages, etc. These too are also residential spaces. Generally it is garages etc. Expected to be a similar to home charging, which is expected to be slow charging (Level 1) combination of fast charging (Level 2) expected to be mostly slow charging and can be used to charge EVs and rapid charging (Level 3) for quick (level 1) apart form this they maybe top-ups of battery power. Charging at overnight. Home charging takes 8 to fast charging (level 2) portable ones 12 hours for complete battery charging also. Its takes 2 to 3 hours for this level is with in few minutes
Definitions complete charge
Residential, Work place charging Workplaces, Residential apartments Town centers, high streets, tourist (including car club bays), Leisure attractions, Residential areas Efficient Building Systems Utility Communications centers and sports facilities, Retail (including car club bays) Internet Renewables
PV Consumer Portal & Building EMS outlets, Community facilities,
Advanced Distribution Metering Control Dynamic Operations Interface Systems Underground and Over ground rail Control M616-18 Plug-In Hybrids stations, Parks and other green Smart Distributed End-Use Data Generation Devices Management & Storage spaces, Education facilities
5 Definitions – Various Charging Station Levels
Level 1 (Slow Level 2 (Fast DC - DC Charging Inductive Charging Charging) Charging) (Rapid Charging)
Level 1/Slow Charging Level 2/Fast charging is This type of charging Method of recharging a battery with out connecting method uses a standard typically described as the employees direct current it to a charging station is by 240V AC branch circuit that “preferred” method for the from the source to get the inductive charging. With this technology, electrical is the lowest common EVs charging both for vehicles battery to be energy is transferred by a voltage level found in both private and public facilities charged to a certain degree process called Inductive residential and commercial charging. This process and specifies a 240V AC, with out converting into an uses magnetic forces to buildings. Typical amp single phase branch circuit alternate current . transfer electrical power ratings for these receptacles from a transmitter to a are 13 or 16 amps. receiver, without the use of
cables or connections Definitions
Source: Frost & Sullivan M616-18
6 Urbanisation Trend and Its Impact on New Mobility Business Models
7 Urbanisation to Be-Redefined in Future And Will Lead to Development of Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS Urban area with more than 10 Region within the perimeter The area alongside the million inhabitants and GDP formed by the combination of transport corridor connecting (PPP) more than 100 billion two or more closely located two or more major cities or USD. major cities or megacities, business districts or over 15 million popuation megacities. Urban area encompasses the areas of the suburbs and the EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- outer business activity hubs. Pretoria region called “Jo- Shenhzen-Guangzhou in China Toria” (Population 120 Million) EXAMPLE: Greater Tokyo, Greater New York, Greater Mumbai
8 Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded - Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities
1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities
Living areas expanding well outside of the peninsular loop in
Creation of the historic centre and districts San Francisco
2000s Suburbanisation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road • Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for 2015s Network City “double income, no kids” households. cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt. • Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery. • „Green wave‟ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries). Third suburban area and cities along the highways cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl working areas in third and second belt.
9 Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New“Sustainable” Cities
Evolution of Megacities: Key Smart Cities (Global), 2009 - 2025
Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Göteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Songdo Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen Vancouver St Davids Seattle Toronto Freiburg Portland Paris Dongtan Changsha Treasure Island Destiny Barcelona Meixi Lake Coyote Springs Khajuraho Arcosanti Babcock Ranch Pune Singapore City Bogota Kochi
Waitakere, N.Z. Curitiba Cape Town Masdar Moreland, Australia
Legend Cities built from scratch Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
M5A9-18 10 CASE STUDY: Amsterdam: A Creative Economy Working Towards
Deploying Smarter Technologies To Achieve A 40% Reduction Of CO2 Emissions From 1990 Levels
SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE
• 39% commute by bicycle • 400+ Km of dedicated cycle route • To familiarise electric bicycle taxis
• 200 charging stations by 2012; • 10,000 EVs By 2015 • 1200 homes to feature smart meters • ITO tower is testing the use of smart • Encourage car sharing and energy management systems. meters and energy efficient appliances to • 14% reduction in energy use is cut energy consumption. expected of this smart meter project • Design aesthetics of building absorb • Cheaper parking slots at natural light and air from the environment P+R public transit stations to thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC park cars and board trains SMART PUBLIC SPACE use to minimum.
***** SMART COMMUTE to WORK • Yearly reduction of parking x spaces and increase of tariffs inside the city. • 30 kmph speed limits on 80% • Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrow of roads inside the city - shopping street downtown is to feature • 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce makes bicycles faster by energy efficient street lighting, atleast 50% on a A-B trip. home to work car miles by 10% by 2012. • Sustainable tram stops with solar • Incentive/free bicycles to employees powered displays and billboards • 154 shore power connections • Free & protected bike parks at offices to • Solar powered garbage bins with built to charge inland cargo vessels encourage cycle use. in compacters will be installed on this and river crusiers to be street • Work from home if necessary installed by 2012
11 New Mobility Model - Car Sharing in Europe Germany, UK and Switzerland are the 3 biggest markets for Car-Sharing membership in Europe at present; 1 in 3 cars bought new by a CSO will be an EV after 2012
Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in Europe, 2009 - 2025
Carsharing Members in 2009
> 80,000
15,000 – 80,000
<15,000 • City Car Club
• Sunfleet • Streetcar • City Car Club • Zipcar 2016 Potential • Connect • Greenwheels • Hertz Delebilen • Gocar • Wheels4all • Cambio • Stadtmobil About €3.5 billion in • Greenwheels revenues • Cambio • Car2go • Okigo Mob • Denzel Mobility • Caisse Commune More than 5.5 million Carsharing • Mobility • Connect members • Mobizen
• Car Sharing Italia More than 77,000 vehicles in • Avancar • Car City Club carsharing fleet
Note: Others include Spain, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal Source: Frost & Sullivan
12 Mobility Integrators (MI) to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split
Telecom Operators The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Operators Transport Solution Integrating
Rail Bus Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple Online Mobility Carsharing Booking Agencies:
Long Distance Mobility Mobility Bikes Integrator
Short Distance Urban Mobility MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer Technology mobility-based Payment Engine Solutions Provider applications (apps) on smart phones.
Technology Evolution
MOBILE 2.0 WEB 2.0 Source: Frost & Sullivan *The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
13 Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology Roadmap and Infrastructure Trends
14 Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap (Global), 2008-2015 - Charging Times to Drop to <30 Minutes by 2015
Electric Vehicle Market: Technology and Product Roadmap for Electric Vehicles (Global), 2005-2015
Driving Distance/charge-up to 55 Up to 125 Miles 190 + Miles Miles
Charge Time – 6 to 8 hrs < 1 hour < 15 minutes
Battery Capacity – up to 16kWh Up to 50 kWh 75 kWh + performance Motor Power- Up to 70 kW 70 kW – 250 kW
Slow charging - onboard
re Fast charging – mostly off board
Battery Swapping Infrastructu
Market for Extended-Range Electric Vehicles: Technology Roadmap for Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
ELECTRIC RANGE Up to 40 miles Up to 100 miles
BATTERY CAPACITY 7kWh – 15kWh 16kWh – 25kWh
MOTOR POWER 50kW – 70kW 70kW – 140kW
CHARGING TIME 2 – 6 hrs 15 mins – 2 hrs Source: Frost Sullivan & Source: 2005 2010 2015 2020
15 Current EV Range (50-80 Miles) Limits Developments Of Infrastructure to Metropolitan Areas.
PRESENT DEVELOPMENTS WITH RESPECT TO ELECTRIC CHARGING STATIONS (2008 - 2015), World
Normal Charging Spots Pub. & Pvt. Parking Place 50+ Fast Charging Spots • Special EV parking space Mile Post • Free charging from charging outlet
10
Car Dealers, Public Building Commercial Facilities • Current strategic locations for fast • E.g., Dept. Stores, hotels, 25 malls charging • Special parking lot for EV • 15 min. charge to yield 60 miles range next to handicap Home provision • Normal charging by nigh time • Free charge (1-2 hrs) discounted electricity using AC outlet • Special charging plug at home Source: Frost & Sullivan • Improved range extension will see charging points extend beyond city limits to urban and sub-urban areas with emphasis on both normal and fast charging stations
16 Future Developments in Electric Charging Stations (2013 on) : Target Focus on Parking Lots With Over 30 Minute Journey Stops
50+
Corporate Offices / Independent Houses
10
Long Duration Stay • Multiplexes, railway stations are strategic spots where consumer Highway - Motels / Dining “Park & Pickup” interval s are • High potential of fast charging ideal for 80% charge stations seen to extend range of • Conventional charging stations EV‟s preferred over fast charging Short-Medium Duration Stay • Battery Swapping stations likely • Dining & Restaurants, Golf courses, to gain ground as well movie theatres Normal Charging Spots Fast Charging Spots • Fast charging stations attractive Mile Post
• EV Range extension will see the rise of urban/sub-urban consumers using EV • Fast charging stations seen across strategic locations on highways like motels, dining centres etc
Source: Frost & Sullivan
17 European EV Charging Station Facts- With exception of Norway, most countries today have less than 1000 charging stations installed
Germany France U.K. Spain
Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2010 – ~694 2010 - ~270 2010– ~544 2010 - 56 Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2017- Number of charging stations 2017- ~250K 2017- ~330K ~400K 2017- ~220K
Netherlands Italy
2017- Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2010– ~120 2010– ~45 ~ 2 Million Installed Base Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2017- ~148K 2017- ~45000 Austria Switzerland Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2010– ~50 2010 - ~667 Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2017- ~20000 2017- ~39000 Sweden Norway Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2010– ~240 2010– ~2000 Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2017- ~60000 2017-. ~185K Belgium Finland Demark Portugal
Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2010– ~50 2010– ~55 2010– ~(30 to 50) 2010– ~40 Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations Number of charging stations 2017- ~84000 2017- ~57000 2017- ~30000 2017- ~1000 Source: Frost & Sullivan
18 European Growth forecast: Cumulative number of various charging levels is in the range of 1.8 to 2 million by 2017
Electric Vehicles Charging infrastructure: Points growth analysis (Europe), 2011 - 2017
2 1% Level 1 Level 2 2% DC - DC Charging Inductive Charging
2% 43% 2% 37% 2% 37% 1
Millions 61% 71% 39% 61% 39% 31% 2009 2010 2011 1% 25% 54% 1% 61% 23% 67% 1% 74% 25% 76% 73% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: Base numbers are rounded for all years Source: Frost and Sullivan
M616-18 19 Global Market Size and Forecasts
20 Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis: Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 million in Frost & Sullivan Scenario by 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017 3,000 Includes all types of PEVs (LSVs, MSVs and free-way speed vehicles) 2,600
2,200
1,800 Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio
1,400 Units ('000) Units
1,000 Year
600
200
-200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2020 Scenario's 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (% of Total Car Sales) Optimistic 23,100 123,800 289,500 665,000 1060,400 1,714,500 2,220,300 3,202,000 10-12 Scenario Frost &Sullivan 16,500 72,000 193,000 453,000 792,000 1,287,500 1,736,000 2,203,000 5-7 Scenario Conservative 13,500 35,600 82,500 150,300 195,100 300,500 450,000 670,000 3-4 Scenario Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan N948-18 21 EV Breakdown By Region - CEVs to Account for 69% Share In Europe; NA to Witness More PHEVs with a 35% Share
EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2017
2.2 Million
1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 22% 28% 35% 6% 8%
11%
69%
4,500 10% 60% Unit Shipments Unit
2% 22% 1% 4% 49% 5% 20% 11% 83% 64% 7% 63% 7% 2017 2009 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan
M6AO - 18 DRAFT 22 Electric Vehicle Market Breakdown by OEMs: Renault Nissan likely to account for 22% of the market share by 2017 with Renault Fluence expected to be one of the top selling models
Electric Vehicle Market: Market share breakdown by OEMs (Europe), 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Top 10 Electric Vehicles (Europe), 2017
Note: All figures are rounded; Source: Frost & Sullivan
M6AO - 18 DRAFT 23 Chinese OEMs to launch over 30 EV Models in Next 3 Years
Electric Vehicle Market: Actual and Expected Electric Vehicle Models (China), 2009-2015
2009 2010 2011 2012
A00 13 Beni EV QQ3 EV M1 EV i-car M1e Yueyue EV 320EV F0 EV Mpe A00 EV Oula EK-1 EK-2 Chana Chery Chery Dongfeng FAW JAC Lifan BYD FAW SAIC Great Wall Geely Geely
A0 2 Yuexiang EV Zhonghua EV Chana Brilliance
A 7 F3DM 620EV Haima EV Zhixiang plug-in 550 plug-in Saibao EV Heyue plug-in BYD Lifan FAW Chana SAIC Hafei JAC
B 2 F6DM BE 701 BYD BAW
MPV 3 E6 premacy EV Shuaike EV BYD FAW Dongfeng
5 SUV Odin EV Ruiqi EV 2008 EV Midi EV Tiggo EV Dongfeng Dongfeng Zhongtai BAW Chery 1 10 9 12 Sum
Source : Frost & Sullivan
24 Electric 2 Wheelers – eBicycle, eScooter and eMotor Bike Market Worth Over 25M Units Worldwide
• Over 20 million electric 2 wheelers sold globally in 2008 • Modest growth expected globally with 22 million sales forecast by 2010
Regenerative braking Motor driven by torque functionality in high end sensor on pedal models
Vectrix Electric Scooter Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped Hub motor driven purely by throttle
Lead Acid / NiMH Battery
• Regenerative Braking* • 60 Volt lead acid battery • 125 Volt NiMH battery • Range – 35 km / 50 km* • Charging time – 7 hours • Charging time – 2 hours • Max speed – 70 kph • Acceleration (0 – 80 kph) – 6.8s • Range – 80 km • Max speed – 100 kph • Range – 110 km @ 40 kph
25 Electric Commercial Vehicles will be concentrated more towards depot based delivery vehicles with fixed payload and work schedule cycle.
Electric Commercial Vehicles Market: Overview of suitability (Europe 2010) Electrification Attractiveness
High ( 4% ~ 10% of total CV market @ 2015) Postal Vans Urban Refuse Trucks Super Market (< 60 miles) Ports Usage This implies immediate opportunity and target for City Councils Transit Bus electric vehicles Utilities
Medium (1% ~ 4 % of total CV market @ 2015) Intra Urban Parcel Vans This signifies an expanding opportunity gained by (<150 miles) Logistics early adopters experience and challenges can be
Range Distribution overcome but require substantial investment
Highway Low (<1% of total CV market @ 2015) (> 150 miles) Medium to Long Haul This represents the size of opportunity and electrification will need to overcome considerable technical and market challenges LCV MCV HCV
Type of Commercial Vehicle
Urban Intra-Urban Highway Usage lies in an urban Usage lies in an urban and intra- Usage mostly lies in highway environment with frequent stop urban distribution. May have routes long haulage with heavy and go combined with fixed load stop and go routes loads
Source: Frost & Sullivan
26 Who is an EV Customer : Strategies differ by different markets and OEMs
NA Drivers who use their vehicle for more leisurely activities generally park short times between trips, while those that use the vehicle to commute park for longer overall. Q6 Average distance per day / Q5 trips per day & Q8 time spent parking / Q5 trips per day Size of bubble Q3 - percent of people that use vehicle for that activity
3
Commuting to and from w ork, 15.5 mi 2.75 Supermarket/ Retail shopping, 15.0 mi 2.5 To use w hile at w ork such as
visiting clients, 16.9 mi day) 2.25 Leisure driving, 15.9 mi Taking & picking kids up from Recreational activities, school, 13.6 mi 2 14.9 mi
Others, 15.6 mi Average parkingtime between Average trip (total parkingtime (excluding home) tripsper / 1.75 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average miles per trip (average per day / trips per day)
Base : Total interviews N=1,766 * Bubble size represents % of respondents who use their vehicle for each activity
27 Business Model Analysis of Key Industry Stakeholders and Key Opportunities
28 Electric Vehicle Industry Value Chain Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields
Integrators Utilities (e.g. Better OEMs Place)
Charging System/Battery Station Government Manufacturers Manufacturers
29 Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
Telematics & Charging Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity other value Stations
added services Services
• Manufacturing & • Battery Leasing • Energy • Subscription • Data Aggregator ( Sales Model Subscription based Energy working with other Packages service Scheme partners) • Installation & • Refurbishing • Extended E- Maintenance • Battery mobility solution • Recycling management • Charge Payment e.g. vehicle sharing • Load Management services Program / Subscription based • Battery 2nd life services • investment in • E-Mobility IT • Offering After- renewable energy Platform Sales services – • Battery such as wind farms • Revenues from Swapping value added and gain carbon Streams credits services • V2V and V2G • Extend to other • Market green Communication
Possible Revenue Revenue Possible E-mobility solutions such as • Premium revenues • Premium revenues solutions Solar panels to E- via Renewable via Peak Power Vs Mobility client base • Added value Energy Vs Non Off Peak Charging service (POIs, Renewable Energy • Premium revenues Diagnostics, etc) • Premium revenues • Battery • Recycling and via Renewable via Peak Power Vs Integration Refurbishing Energy Vs Non Off Peak Charging Renewable Energy
• Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging Source: Frost & Sullivan
30 EV Business Models Will Have to Compete With The Internal Combustion Engine Cost Ownership Structure
Small Segment Low/Medium Segment
•Toyota Yaris •Vauxhall Corsa Citroen C2 •Toyota Prius •Ford Focus •VW Golf Exampl es Capital Investment = €13,573 Capital Investment = €22,142
~ €4,000 € 6,308 152 80 152 275 226 131 468 317 1,125
1,197
2,891 1,445 ~ €900 €1,000 154 154 349 349 722 114 1,313 114 329 329
Standing Charges Running Standing Charges
Running Running Vehicle Costs per Running per Vehicle Average Annual Annual Standing and Average Cost per Vehicle Cost
Cycle 3 years 3 years Period
~ €29,000 ~ €44,000
Cost Target Target
Average Average Cost of finance (Interest) Depreciation Fuel Insurance Maintenance Tax Assistance membership Parking charge Congestion charge Replacement parts Tyres Source: RAC
31 Business Models Analysis: Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of EVs; The Rest 25% Sold Traditionally
Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4
TYPE Energy Package Maintenance Package Part Subsidy Full Subsidy
COVER Partial battery Energy Package+ Maintenance Maintenance Package+ lease + Electricity Insurance+ Maintenance Package+ Discount 100% Discount
ENERGY Monthly Bill Flat: Max 1250 Flat: 15,500 Flat: ~18,500 miles/month miles/year miles/year
CONTRACT NA NA 4 years 7 years
SUBSIDY NA NA 50% car price Free car
MONTHLY Up to $225 Up to $500 $750- $1100 ~ $1350- $2250 LEASE Source: Better Place, Frost & Sullivan
Other Possible Leasing models
Flexible Mileage Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go
Flexible Contract The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease Note : Values that have been dealt here are an European perspective converted into US$ at today‟s exchange rate.
32 The Overview of Current Business Models of Vehicles in the Market: Outright Sales and leasing concept preferred by key players
Business Model Nissan Leaf PSA C-Zero Th!nk iMEV
Outright • GB£28,990 (Before • Upfront payment left • €29,500 (Before • £28,990 (Before Purchase Price rebate, inl. VAT) to Consumers rebate, excl. VAT) – rebate, inl. VAT) • Will use €5,000 rebate GB£23k in UK
Basic 1. Outright 2. Leasing 1. Leasing 1. Outright 2. Leasing 1. Outright 2. Leasing Purchase Purchase Business Purchase -£399/m; 4yr -€499/month; 4yr contract -€554/m;5yr -No contract contract (10% announcements Packages -Vehicle + Battery residual value) yet -Access to Charge Station -Telematics (Specific -€510/m;5yr - £300 inc. VAT – Assistance) contract (15% 3yrs/ 37,500 -IT Telematics -Navigation residual value) under MSP -Maintenance -IT Telematics and Service -Add. Fee for info. On status of battery (>1/day) -Maintenance -Monthly utility and Service Bill -No charge stations -Vehicle returned to dealer post contract period
Warranty • 7 yr Battery Warranty • 5 yr Battery Warranty • 5 yr Battery Warranty • 5 yr / 62,500Kms Conditions Battery Warranty
Residual Value • Vehicle: 60% after 3 yrs • Vehicle: 55% after 3 yrs • Vehicle + Battery : • Vehicle: 60% after 3 yrs 15% after 5 yrs • Battery: 15% after 8 yrs • Battery: 15% after 8 yrs • Battery : 15% after 8 yrs
Source: Frost & Sullivan
M682-18 33 Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside Selling Energy
Source Of Revenue Generation Calculated over 5 years (based on certain assumptions)
1. Revenues from Selling Electricity €300Mn - €400Mn
2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations €500Mn - €700Mn
3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations €300Mn - €500Mn
4. Revenues from Other Sources (Solar panels and other retailing, Advertising, Load Balancing, Garage Referrals, Data Downloads etc) € 450Mn - € 650Mn
TOTAL: €1.5 bn - €2 bn
Capital Investment Includes: (1st yr) New Energy Capacity €48Mn - €50Mn Command and control centre
Network Recurring Cost Charging Station Purchase Cost €640Mn - €650Mn Fixed & Operating Cost Installation and Maintenance cost Logistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing and Labour Cost
M682-18 34 Total Cost Of Ownership Analysis for Fleets: Fuel costs are the predominant elements of vehicles Cost Of Ownership in Utility companies, Public Sector and Business Delivery Services
Question: Please estimate how much you spend on the following per month (Euros)
€645 €627
€546
€435 €396
€265
56% 63%
27% 53% 63% 28%
Builing & Bus Delivery Car Rental Public Sector Postal Utility Maintenance
Fuel Maintenance Financing Leasing Insurance Road TaxRoad Congestion Others
• Interestingly, fuel amounts for up to 2/3 of fleet running costs across businesses interviewed with Business Delivery and Public sector seeing it take up the largest share of their Cost of Ownership * Based on 93 Interviews with Fleet Drivers who are • EV‟s should aim to address the Fuel and Road Taxing costs for businesses involved in the choice and running costs of their vehicle
M35F-18 35 Telematics and E-Mobility IT Platform for Electric Vehicles
36 eMobility IT platform : Number of Mission Critical Elements needs to be Monitored through a Communication Platform at the Charging End
Billing Data Utility Provider Mapping
Vehicle Identification Number Charging Preferences Mapping
Vehicle Charging Location Vehicle 2 Grid Communication Key Elements Parking Incentives/Information to be Billing Information Captured Dynamic Electricity Rates Battery Monitoring
Grid Demand Management Battery State of Charge
Vehicle Charging Duration Offering Renewable Options
• Supporting utility is • Billing is another key the key backbone of feature from this this infrastructure infrastructure • Grid management, • Authenticate with load leveling/shedding security proper support are key information for billing
37 Automotive Apps: From Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value Added Development
Remote News – Integrated 3D Car Sharing Vehicle Online radio Telematics – Navigation Vehicle Horn/Light EV Billing news, RSS eCall/bCall/T with Video Access Flash – feeds reader olling Support Security App,
Multimodal Social Diagnostics – Transport – Remote Car Interior Pre- Real time Networking – TPMS, apps for real Starter/ Condition Traffic e.g. Twitter, service/oil time Security App Information Facebook, notifications, bus/transit
Vehicle Car/Van IP TV – live tv Access – Real Time Charging Pooling – car using Dynamic POI converting Video Traffic Station and van internet, eg. Finder phone in to Feeds Locator pooling apps, .SPB TV, smart key
Car Sharing – Internet Choosing, State of Radio Emergency Reservation Vehicle Charge Turn by Turn e.g. Pandora, Assistance – and locating Locator Monitoring Navigation RadioTime App cars, App
Electric Mobility Entertainment Vehicle Access/ Telematics Navigation Security Vehicles
38 Case Study - London
39 Role of Non-Ministerial Organizations supporting E-Mobility in UK / London
Transport for London (TfL) is the local government body responsible for most aspects of TFL 1 the transport system in Greater London in England. Its role is to implement the transport strategy and to manage transport services across London
The Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV), a cross Whitehall team is dedicated to OLEV taking forward this ambitious program. Through OLEV, working with UK industry and 2 the regions, key aim is to position the UK as a world leader in the development, demonstration, manufacture and use of ultra-low carbon automotive technology.
Cenex is a delivery agency established with support from the Department for Cenex 3 Business, Innovation and Skills to promote UK market development and competitiveness in low carbon and fuel cell technologies for transport applications.
Their role is to stimulate technology-enabled innovation in the areas which offer the TSB greatest scope for boosting UK growth and productivity. Promotes , support and invest 4 in technology research, development and commercialization. Spread knowledge, bringing people together to solve problems or make new advances.
Sources: 1) tfl.gov.uk: 2) dft.gov.uk: 3) cenex.co.uk 4) inovateuk.org
40 Representative Eco-System for Electric Vehicle Infrastructure in the city of London (UK)
Charging Points Supply Side Demand Side Work Places
Incentives • Congestion Power Streets Charge Relief • Parking fee Charging Relief Equipment Vehicles • Business Fund Public Car Parks Standard Points Distribution Manufacturers Network Retailers Rapid Points Users Car Clubs
Transport Hubs Battery Swap Rental Vehicles
Leisure Facilities
Integration
Partner Car Dealers TBD Branding Information • Website Car Club/ Rental Bays • Call Centre
41 Of the announced 25,000 charging stations in London – significant proportion of this is to be integrated in workplaces across West and South regions
Sources: Mayors Office
42 Workshop - Urban Mobility 3.0: http://www.gil-global.com/urbanmobility/ Growth Opportunities in Smart Mobility Business Models, Infrastructure and Electric Vehicles– 15TH and 16TH June in House of Parliament
Unique thought leadership platform where Parliamentarians and Corporate come together to debate transport of the future Speakers include: • Senior Parliamentarians and MPs • Dr. Bernhard Blättel Director Project Mobility Services, BMW AG, Munich • Robert Henrich CEO, car2go (Subsidiary of Daimler) • Andrew Everett Head of Transport Technology Strategy Board • Isabel Dedring, Mayor of London's Environment Adviser • Michael Hurwitz, Director, Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) • Christian Schlosser, Ph.D., UN-Habitat Chief, Urban Transport Section • Others include Sixt, Zipcar, Eaton, IBM and many others
43 Discussions
44 Contacts
Sarwant Singh Practice Director Automotive & Transportation P : +44 207 915 7843 Email : [email protected]
M35F-18 45