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limited wars PRECLUDING ESCALATION limited wars NEW PERSPECTIVE a prime necessity, it was not in the former Chief of the Army overall national interest to escalate Staff, among others, have the conflict to other fronts along articulated the belief that the Line of Control (LoC) and the there is clear strategic international border with Pakistan space for a conventional as the conflict may have spun out of conflict below the control and risked crossing nuclear nuclear threshold red lines. Hence, India fought only because nuclear weapons a limited, localised war to evict are not weapons of Pakistani intruders. At the same warfighting. They are Limited Wars Dr Rajiv Nayan time, the Indian military planners political weapons whose did not hesitate to use overwhelming sole purpose is to deter The writer is a Senior Research artillery firepower and punitive the use and the threat of Associate at the Institute for ground strikes by the Indian Air use of nuclear weapons Defence Studies and Analyses Force on the home side of the LoC by India’s nuclear armed (IDSA), New Delhi since 1993, to support the ground offensive in adversaries. in South Asia: where he specialises in export the Kargil sector. Simultaneously, Against the Nuclear Backdrop control, non-proliferation Pakistan was deterred from Hence, it is now well and arms control. He was a escalating the conflict by skilfully accepted in India that Another civilian perspective on the issue of Limited Visiting Research Fellow at stage-managing the movement of future wars in the Indian Japan Institute of International Affairs, Tokyo, where he the Army’s strategic reserves and context are likely to be wars in South Asia. Though the writer rules out a published his monograph - combat squadrons of the Indian Air limited wars. These will Non-Proliferation Issues in Force towards the western border be predominantly land limited Nuclear war as an obvious absurdity, his South Asia. and by deploying the Indian Navy’s battles that will spin out Eastern Fleet in the Arabian Sea to of ongoing conflicts on land like the Centre for Land Warfare Studies view on a conventional conflict against a backdrop present Pakistan with a fait accompli. proxy war being waged by Pakistan (CLAWS), New Delhi, Maj Gen In 1953, Ralf Lapp’s technical Thus, a clear and concise, though against India in Jammu and Kashmir G D Bakshi (Retd) has recommended of nuclear symmetry is more nuanced. work was the first published limited, national aim was achieved and the half-century old military that “primacy must be given to literature which analysed the through limited military objectives stand-off along the Line of Control air power and naval power in a possibility of nuclear weapons in a localised conflict that employed (LoC). A limited border conflict limited war over projection of land in limited war. However, the maximum available ground and air between India and China due to the power responses.” He emphasises most popular and authoritative firepower and succeeded beyond unresolved territorial and boundary deterrence by punishment primarily work was produced by expectations. dispute cannot be ruled out despite through air and naval power and Bernard Brodie in 1954. He the ongoing rapprochement between recommends a graduated response argued for limited and tactical It is now well accepted in the two countries. strategy. role of nuclear weapons in war in India that future wars in the Europe to scuttle the communist Indian context are likely to be Conventional war in future is likely After the 2001-02 military advantage in the region limited wars. These will be to be a point somewhere midway standoff and India’s frustration at predominantly land battles that on a continuum that encompasses not being able to launch a swift will spin out of ongoing conflicts the present conflict along the LoC military response, the Indian Army on land like the proxy war being and the AGPL with Pakistan, as also began to look for a new doctrine waged by Pakistan against India Pakistan’s ongoing proxy war and that would enable the country to in Jammu and Kashmir and a possible border conflict along the achieve its political and military aims the half-century old military LAC with China. Since it is likely to in a short war without running the stand-off along the Line of spin out of ongoing conflicts on land, risk of crossing Pakistan’s nuclear Control (LoC) it will be predominantly a land battle. red lines. The Indian doctrine for Gaining, occupying and holding limited war must emphasise massive Speaking at the Institute territory and evicting the enemy from asymmetries of firepower to achieve for Defence Studies and Analyses, any Indian territory occupied by destruction and degradation of the New Delhi, seminar on Limited War him will remain important military adversary’s war waging potential on January 6, 2000, former Defence objectives. It is well recognised that in a strategic context that precludes Minister Mr George Fernandes had it will not be possible to conduct a destruction and paralysis through expressed the view that conventional successful land campaign without large-scale manoeuvre. However, it war can still be fought and that covert overwhelming and sustained needs to be clearly recognised that proxy wars are not the only option. support from the Indian Air Force while future wars on the Indian “Conventional war remains feasible, by way of air-to-ground strikes by sub-continent may be fought though with definite limitations, if fighter ground attack (FGA) aircraft as limited wars, larger conflicts escalation across the nuclear threshold in the contact, immediate depth and cannot be ruled out. Planning and is to be avoided.” Most Indian the deep strike battles. Only a joint preparation for war and future force analysts are convinced that the advent Air-Land campaign can possibly structures must take this reality into of nuclear weapons has not ruled out achieve the military objectives account. The nation must remain the feasibility of limited war. Late of limited war in the Indian prepared to eliminate threats across Mr K Subrahmanyam, Air Cmde context. In his excellent book the entire spectrum of conflict. Jasjit Singh and General V P Malik, on Limited War written for the 78 January 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT January 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT 79 limited wars NEW PERSPECTIVE outh Asia is the region that by Western nuclear theologians However, the most popular and war and the terrible destruction between India and Pakistan, because through a very small amount of has been witnessing state- and their Indian counterparts has authoritative work was produced it would bring to the civilised of the latter’s acquisition of nuclear nuclear weapons. Interestingly, this Ssponsored terrorism for been shielding Pakistani terrorists. by Bernard Brodie in 1954. He world.” weapons and South Asia becoming logic has been adopted by countries decades. The prevalence of enduring For years, this kind of thinking argued for limited and tactical role a nuclear flashpoint of the world, it like India and China by calling it and recurring terrorist violence allowed Pakistan to keep its anti- of nuclear weapons in war in Europe What is the guarantee that has been reiterated time and again by a ‘minimum retaliating strike’ or orchestrated by Pakistan has been India terror operation intact. The to scuttle the communist advantage nuclear exchange will not take Pervez Musharraf and his officials credible minimum deterrence. Even forcing the international community Pakistani blackmail took hundreds in the region, though the NATO place in a future war because that a nuclear exchange in case of some US nuclear whiz-kids and to chalk out a strategy to counter of innocent lives. However, time and council ruled out its possibility in it did not take place the last an India-Pakistan conflict can go policy-makers have acknowledged terrorism. However, the western again, the strategic community is Europe. time? out of control and as a result no this possibility. And a nuclear campaign for counter-terrorism made put under pressure to explore war sensible person from either side will weapons strike on NATO forces the biggest terrorist state - Pakistan - as an option to end terror strikes of The attempt to marry nuclear Contemporary writers on limited allow this to happen. For them, it is may lead to a different kind of a partner. As a result, counter-terror Pakistan. 26/11 provided yet another weapons with limited war was war are also struggling to define an unthinkable situation. India can psychological impact on Western activities could not act on the source occasion to ponder over the issue. made by the US government and understand limited war. The feel confident about the thinking public opinion and policy-making. of terrorism not only in Pakistan but Is a limited war under the nuclear as early as 1948. It started plethora of literature is confusing capability of the current ruling class Thus, such understanding of also all over the world. Admittedly, shadow impossible? The answer Project Vista at the California the policy and strategic communities of Pakistan, which is well aware of Pakistani inaction can be used to in the past months, the leader of the is no. The entire formulation of Institute of Technology to both. On South Asia, too, we witness the disastrous consequences that predict the future nuclear behaviour counter-terror campaign appeared the impossibility of limited war in explore the role of tactical writings arguing the possibility may result if it introduces nuclear of Pakistan in a conflict with India sending some signals, if not action, the nuclear atmosphere is based nuclear weapons for limited and impossibility of a limited war weapons in a conflict.

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