limited PRECLUDING ESCALATION limited wars NEW PERSPECTIVE

a prime necessity, it was not in the former Chief of the Army overall national interest to escalate , among others, have the conflict to other fronts along articulated the belief that the Line of Control (LoC) and the there is clear strategic international border with Pakistan space for a conventional as the conflict may have spun out of conflict below the control and risked crossing nuclear nuclear threshold red lines. Hence, fought only because nuclear a limited, localised to evict are not weapons of Pakistani intruders. At the same warfighting. They are Limited Wars Dr Rajiv Nayan time, the Indian planners political weapons whose did not hesitate to use overwhelming sole purpose is to deter The writer is a Senior Research firepower and punitive the use and the threat of Associate at the Institute for ground strikes by the Indian Air use of nuclear weapons Defence Studies and Analyses Force on the home side of the LoC by India’s nuclear armed (IDSA), New Delhi since 1993, where he specialises in export to support the ground in adversaries. in South Asia: the Kargil sector. Simultaneously, Against the Nuclear Backdrop control, non-proliferation Pakistan was deterred from Hence, it is now well and arms control. He was a escalating the conflict by skilfully accepted in India that Another civilian perspective on the issue of Limited Visiting Research Fellow at stage-managing the movement of future wars in the Indian Japan Institute of International Affairs, Tokyo, where he the Army’s strategic reserves and context are likely to be wars in South Asia. Though the writer rules out a published his monograph - combat squadrons of the Indian Air limited wars. These will Non-Proliferation Issues in Force towards the western border be predominantly land limited Nuclear war as an obvious absurdity, his South Asia. and by deploying the Indian ’s that will spin out Eastern Fleet in the Arabian Sea to of ongoing conflicts on land like the Centre for Land Warfare Studies view on a conventional conflict against a backdrop present Pakistan with a fait accompli. being waged by Pakistan (CLAWS), New Delhi, Maj Gen In 1953, Ralf Lapp’s technical Thus, a clear and concise, though against India in Jammu and Kashmir G D Bakshi (Retd) has recommended of nuclear symmetry is more nuanced. work was the first published limited, national aim was achieved and the half-century old military that “primacy must be given to literature which analysed the through limited military objectives stand-off along the Line of Control air power and naval power in a possibility of nuclear weapons in a localised conflict that employed (LoC). A limited border conflict limited war over projection of land in limited war. However, the maximum available ground and air between India and due to the power responses.” He emphasises most popular and authoritative firepower and succeeded beyond unresolved territorial and boundary deterrence by punishment primarily work was produced by expectations. dispute cannot be ruled out despite through air and naval power and Bernard Brodie in 1954. He the ongoing rapprochement between recommends a graduated response argued for limited and tactical It is now well accepted in the two countries. strategy. role of nuclear weapons in war in India that future wars in the Europe to scuttle the communist Indian context are likely to be Conventional war in future is likely After the 2001-02 military advantage in the region limited wars. These will be to be a point somewhere midway standoff and India’s frustration at predominantly land battles that on a continuum that encompasses not being able to launch a swift will spin out of ongoing conflicts the present conflict along the LoC military response, the Indian Army on land like the proxy war being and the AGPL with Pakistan, as also began to look for a new doctrine waged by Pakistan against India Pakistan’s ongoing proxy war and that would enable the country to in Jammu and Kashmir and a possible border conflict along the achieve its political and military aims the half-century old military LAC with China. Since it is likely to in a short war without running the stand-off along the Line of spin out of ongoing conflicts on land, risk of crossing Pakistan’s nuclear Control (LoC) it will be predominantly a land . red lines. The Indian doctrine for Gaining, occupying and holding limited war must emphasise massive Speaking at the Institute territory and evicting the enemy from asymmetries of firepower to achieve for Defence Studies and Analyses, any Indian territory occupied by destruction and degradation of the New Delhi, seminar on Limited War him will remain important military adversary’s war waging potential on January 6, 2000, former Defence objectives. It is well recognised that in a strategic context that precludes Minister Mr George Fernandes had it will not be possible to conduct a destruction and paralysis through expressed the view that conventional successful land campaign without large-scale manoeuvre. However, it war can still be fought and that covert overwhelming and sustained needs to be clearly recognised that proxy wars are not the only option. support from the Indian Air Force while future wars on the Indian “Conventional war remains feasible, by way of air-to-ground strikes by sub-continent may be fought though with definite limitations, if fighter ground attack (FGA) aircraft as limited wars, larger conflicts escalation across the nuclear threshold in the contact, immediate depth and cannot be ruled out. Planning and is to be avoided.” Most Indian the deep strike battles. Only a joint preparation for war and future force analysts are convinced that the advent Air-Land campaign can possibly structures must take this reality into of nuclear weapons has not ruled out achieve the military objectives account. The nation must remain the feasibility of limited war. Late of limited war in the Indian prepared to eliminate threats across Mr K Subrahmanyam, Air Cmde context. In his excellent book the entire spectrum of conflict. Jasjit Singh and General V P Malik, on Limited War written for the

78 January 2012 Defence AND security alert January 2012 Defence AND security alert 79 limited wars NEW PERSPECTIVE

outh Asia is the region that by Western nuclear theologians However, the most popular and war and the terrible destruction between India and Pakistan, because through a very small amount of has been witnessing state- and their Indian counterparts has authoritative work was produced it would bring to the civilised of the latter’s acquisition of nuclear nuclear weapons. Interestingly, this Ssponsored for been shielding Pakistani terrorists. by Bernard Brodie in 1954. He world.” weapons and South Asia becoming logic has been adopted by countries decades. The prevalence of enduring For years, this kind of thinking argued for limited and tactical role a nuclear flashpoint of the world, it like India and China by calling it and recurring terrorist violence allowed Pakistan to keep its anti- of nuclear weapons in war in Europe What is the guarantee that has been reiterated time and again by a ‘minimum retaliating strike’ or orchestrated by Pakistan has been India terror operation intact. The to scuttle the communist advantage nuclear exchange will not take Pervez Musharraf and his officials credible minimum deterrence. Even forcing the international community Pakistani blackmail took hundreds in the region, though the NATO place in a future war because that a nuclear exchange in case of some US nuclear whiz-kids and to chalk out a strategy to counter of innocent lives. However, time and council ruled out its possibility in it did not take place the last an India-Pakistan conflict can go policy-makers have acknowledged terrorism. However, the western again, the strategic community is Europe. time? out of control and as a result no this possibility. And a nuclear campaign for counter-terrorism made put under pressure to explore war sensible person from either side will weapons strike on NATO forces the biggest terrorist state - Pakistan - as an option to end terror strikes of The attempt to marry nuclear Contemporary writers on limited allow this to happen. For them, it is may lead to a different kind of a partner. As a result, counter-terror Pakistan. 26/11 provided yet another weapons with limited war was war are also struggling to define an unthinkable situation. India can psychological impact on Western activities could not act on the source occasion to ponder over the issue. made by the US government and understand limited war. The feel confident about the thinking public opinion and policy-making. of terrorism not only in Pakistan but Is a limited war under the nuclear as early as 1948. It started plethora of literature is confusing capability of the current ruling class Thus, such understanding of also all over the world. Admittedly, shadow impossible? The answer Project Vista at the California the policy and strategic communities of Pakistan, which is well aware of Pakistani inaction can be used to in the past months, the leader of the is no. The entire formulation of Institute of Technology to both. On South Asia, too, we witness the disastrous consequences that predict the future nuclear behaviour counter-terror campaign appeared the impossibility of limited war in explore the role of tactical writings arguing the possibility may result if it introduces nuclear of Pakistan in a conflict with India sending some signals, if not action, the nuclear atmosphere is based nuclear weapons for limited and impossibility of a limited war weapons in a conflict. as well. to Pakistan. This signal has yet not on limited and lopsided facts. The warfare in the nuclear age. In India, the generated enough confidence and nuclear world has a very short Cold Start doctrine is discussed to There can be some apprehensions Another argument is that if hope among people suffering from history and often complex history. Throughout the and promote the idea of a limited war; about the lunatic fringe or Pakistan feels or fears that its terror for decades. even after the end of it, writings and Pakistan, it seems, is putting an non-rational or jihadi elements, existence is under threat, it may The first problem of all these reports from both the governmental emphasis on tactical weapons to which have infiltrated the Pakistani use nuclear weapons. But this does Quite frequently, victims of theoretical formulations is the and non-governmental organisations send a different signal on limited nuclear establishment. Some not hold much ground as an Indian terror are asked to make peace conceptualisation of limited continued to come arguing for and war. may argue that these elements operation is unlikely to have the with terrorists in South Asia. In the war. Some writings of the early against the use of nuclear weapons may manoeuvre the Pakistani objective of permanent occupation region, the victim of terror, India, cold war period generally referred for a limited war. In 1957, James King Based on the cold war experience, government to get nuclear weapons or a merger of Pakistan with India. is advised to enter into dialogue the World Wars as the real wars and debunked the thesis that a nuclear the international community and introduced in the conflict. This Yes, Pakistani existence may come with Pakistan. The understanding all the wars fought at the relatively war can be kept limited. Later, he even analysts in strategic studies argument can be nullified if under threat when it introduces is that it will broker peace and end lower scale as limited wars. Some was joined by Bernard Brodie and assume that a conventional war one looks at the current conflict nuclear weapons in a conventional terrorism. The experience explains of the writings considered the much later in the 1960s onwards between two nuclear armed between the NATO forces led by conflict because it will then be otherwise. After the Mumbai attacks, of a country as the total by a number of writers. The idea countries or groups is impossible. the and Taliban / certain that India will annihilate it the prevailing tense atmosphere in war, but the from was called ‘unmitigated nonsense’. It is propounded that any conflict Al Qaeda elements. While the with its nuclear arsenal. Moreover, South Asia drew attention of the the enemy’s territory as limited However, the relevance of nuclear between two nuclear entities will United States has bombed Taliban Pakistan’s signalling through tactical international community. This war. weapons for limited war got a very either immediately or subsequently hideouts in Pakistan, there has nuclear weapons development is not focused attention and monitoring prominent name and that was escalate into a nuclear war. Is this been no nuclear retaliation going to work. It knows all the ideas of the situation forced Pakistan The alarmist situation created by Henry Kissinger. For decades, he true? Reality falsifies this hypothesis, from the ‘insane’ elements. It is were championed by the American to suspend its terror activities Western nuclear theologians and along with others kept arguing which is essentially based on limited common knowledge that for the strategic community when the temporarily. The moment the their Indian counterparts has been the significance of nuclear historical experience and erroneous Al Qaeda or Taliban forces the US had nuclear superiority. After dialogue was resumed, a series of shielding Pakistani terrorists. weapons to keep a war limited and logic. United States is currently enemy the advent of nuclear weapons celebratory terrorist attacks were For years, this kind of thinking deterrence credible and cost number one. in other countries, the moderate carried out by Pakistan-based terror allowed Pakistan to keep its anti- effective. India was forced to fight a war voice regarding the battlefield groups. India terror operation intact with Pakistan in 1999 when both the Associated with this is the issue of use of nuclear weapons started The gave another countries had gone nuclear. Pakistan the ineffectiveness of the Pakistani emerging. Many western pundits had However, the dominant dimension to the discourse on infringed upon India’s territorial nuclear arsenal in relation to the US predicted nuclear flashpoint in the understanding on the limited limited war. The war refuted the sovereignty, its regular Army fought a predominance or even attacks on Thus, we find that even a brief tense situation. Instead the tense war, during the early decades of idea that a limited war cannot war against the regular Indian Army Pakistani territory. The international history of the nuclear world situation in South Asia and tough the cold war, was in terms of use be fight in the nuclear age. The and the Indian assault combined community is already aware of the demonstrates that limited war in position of India produced a period of tactical and other battlefield Korean War was generally accepted with international pressure forced arm-twisting of Pakistan after the a nuclear age is a possibility. The of relative peace in South Asia. The weapons for limited effect. In as a limited war by all standards. Pakistan to withdraw its Army from 9/11 incident that has led to the Pakistani nuclear blackmail is to end traditional western position stands fact, the attempt to marry nuclear Even the involvement of the two the territory under Indian control. tumbling of the entire terror strategy and for this, war as an option should defeated. Similarly, Traditional weapons with limited war was made hostile groups did not make it a India did not use nuclear weapons and policy that Pakistan pursued be kept in mind. In the South Asian Western Pundits on South Asia by the US government as early as . In fact, later declassified when its territorial integrity was through the Taliban. Neither the context, all the western theology instantly rule out a limited war 1948. It started Project Vista at the documents and other writings reveal infringed, nor did Pakistan do so Pakistani military regime nor has been proved wrong. Already, in a nuclear condition now. They California Institute of Technology to that MacArthur wanted to make the when faced with defeat. the civilian government has had a limited war was fought in the predict catastrophe. An all out war. explore the role of tactical nuclear war total because in his thinking the courage to stand up to US region. The Korean experience also Quite interestingly, some of them weapons for limited warfare. there is nothing called limited war; Another question that comes up belligerence. demonstrated that the complacency had planned war in a nuclearised The effort continued in the later according to him, there should here is what is the guarantee that arising out of the possession of atmosphere during the cold war. The years. be either total peace or total war. nuclear exchange will not take place Here, some may argue that this nuclear weapons leaves armed forces plan had to fight not only limited However, President Truman later in a future war because it did not take is because the United States is a unprepared or under prepared. war in the nuclear shadow but also In 1953, Ralf Lapp’s technical work wrote about the Korean War that place the last time? Notwithstanding formidable power with powerful India should also not fall in this nuclear war. was the first published literature “Every decision I made in connection Pervez Musharraf’s book In the Line war machinery. In fact, the logic kind of situation which leaves it which analysed the possibility of with the Korean conflict had this one of Fire and some of his officials’ of deterrence also underlines the unprepared. The alarmist situation created nuclear weapons in limited war. aim in mind; to prevent a third world statements indicating military parity threshold of ‘unacceptable damage’

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