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Limited Nuclear War SCIENTIFIC Established 1 845 AME RI CAN November 1976 Volume 23 5 Number 5 Limited Nuclear War The U.S. may be committing itself to preparing for a war limited to attacks on military bases, with relatively few civilian casualties. Would the casualties really be few, and could the war stay limited? by Sidney D. Drell and Frank von Hippel or more than a decade U.S. strate­ that a flexible capability would make inger supported his advocacy of such a F gic policy has been dominated by the possibility of a U.S. nuclear attack counterforce capability by suggesting the recognition and acceptance of more credible and would thus increase that a counterforce strike against the a few simple facts: We and the Russians the leverage provided by U.S. nuclear U.S. might result in "hundreds of thou­ are each other's nuclear hostages; in the forces in international confrontations. sands" of civilian casualties "as opposed event of nuclear war neither this country Since 1974 Schlesinger and other de­ to tens and hundreds of millions," which nor the U.S.S.R. would be able to de­ fense spokesmen have emphasized what could result from an all-out nuclear ex­ fend itself against virtual annihilation; they now seem to regard as two neces­ change. Several senators were skeptical even if one side were to initiate the war sary new ingredients of a flexible-re­ that a militarily significant strike could with a massive preemptive attack, the sponse strategy. One is the development cause so few casualties; Senator Clifford other would retain an "assured destruc­ of intercontinental ballistic missiles P. Case of New Jersey in particular tion" capability, the ability to devas­ (ICBM's) capable of destroying "hard­ asked that the basis for the casualty cal­ tate the attacker. In one form or another ened" Russian military targets, such as culations be further explained. In Sep­ this recognition has underlain most of missiles emplaced in blast-resistant un­ tember, Schlesinger returned with De­ the past quarter century of mutual de­ derground silos. The other is a major partment of Defense computer calcula­ terrence. expansion of the civil defense program, tions on the consequences of limited nu­ It has also been recognized, however, which has been largely inactive since the clear war. The figures indicated that if that nuclear weapons might be launched early 1960's. The purpose of the civil extensive civil defense protection were with restraint on both sides, with less defense program would be to improve available and taken advantage of, a Rus­ than devastating results. President Nix­ the credibility of the U.S. limited-nucle­ sian attack on all 1.054 Minuteman and on emphasized in 1970 the importance ar-war posture by protecting the civilian Titan ICBM's, with one one-megaton of having options other than "massive population from the effects of limited warhead targeted on each silo, would retaliation" for replying to a small (and Russian nuclear attacks. The new em­ cause about 800,000 civilian deaths. possibly accidental) attack. That formu­ phases give more weight to achieving a Schlesinger concluded from this that lation of flexible response was nothing capability for fighting and "winning" a "the likelihood of limited nuclear at­ new. U.S. leaders have for many years limited nuclear war. tacks cannot be challenged on the as­ had the option of launching a limited This proposed shift in strategy and the sumption that massive civilian fatalities nuclear attack rather than an all-out weapons-development and civil defense and injuries would result." one. The requirements of flexible re­ measures being sought to support it Some senators were still skeptical. sponse were expanded, however, by for­ have come under attack on two broad and the Congressional Office of Tech­ mer Secretary of Defense James R. grounds. First, detailed calculations nology Assessment (OTA) was asked to Schlesinger in Congressional testimony based on the properties of nuclear weap­ review the Defense Department calcula­ on March 4, 1974. According to his for­ ons of the coming decade suggest that tions. An expert panel including one of mulation, the U.S. should include in its the casualties from any militarily signifi­ the present authors (Drell) reported flexible-response repertory the possibili­ cant nuclear counterforce strike would back in February, 1975, that "the casu­ ty of replying to a limited nuclear attack be so devastatingly high that this con­ alties calculated were substantially too with selected strikes, notably "counter­ cept of limited nuclear war loses mean­ low for the attacks in question as a result force" strikes targeted against enemy ing. Second, a counterforce strategy of a lack of attention to intermediate military installations. Schlesinger ar­ founded on the ability to destroy ene­ and long-term effects" of the nuclear ex­ gued that such strikes would be qualita­ my ICBM's increases the chances of nu­ plosions. Pointing out that the Russian tively different from intentional attacks clear war. strike postulated by the Defense Depart­ on population centers, reducing the ment was "evidently not designed to probability that a limited nuclear war n his testimony before a subcommit­ maximize destruction of U.S. ICBM's," would escalate into a massive exchange I tee of the Senate Committee on For­ the panel insisted that a real Russian ef­ resulting in large civilian casualties, and eign Relations in March, 1974, Schles- fort to cause maximum damage to U.S. 27 © 1976 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC MINUTEMAN III missile combat-crew commander's console con­ ground) is that of the Command Data Buffer system, which makes trols the launching of a flight of 10 missiles. The keyboard (fore- possible the resetting of targets in on-board computers in 36 minutes. - II MINUTEMAN II console shown here is that of the deputy combat­ centers. The U.S. has 450 Minuteman II's and 550 Minuteman Ill's, crew commander. The consoles are in underground launch-control the latter with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. 28 © 1976 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC strategic forces with weapons currently ties alone would be between 50,000 and lower. For such targets it is radioactive deployed or under development would 100,000 per one-megaton warhead ex­ fallout that would account for most of in fact "inflict massive damage on U.S. ploded high enough so that local radio­ the civilian casualties, and the fallout society." The panel raised specific ques­ active fallout would not be a hazard. from a Russian attack on a Minuteman tions about some of the assumptions un­ For military targets in places with a base could be lethal many hundreds of derlying the Defense Department's cal­ low population density, casualties from miles downwind. Considering the weap­ culations, and it also asked for estimates these immediate effects would be much ons that are deployed today or are likely of the probable degree of damage to U.S. military targets for postulated at­ tacks. This is a critical point, since it would be specious and misleading to calculate a low casualty figure for some imagined trivial-and therefore unlike­ ly-counterforce attack. In response to the panel's critique De­ fense Department analysts tested the sensitivity of their calculations to the as­ sumptions challenged by the panel and estimated the effectiveness of various possible Russian strikes. In what follows we shall consider these issues and some of the underlying technical factors. We shall draw in part on the Defense De­ partment's results, which were reported in July, 1975, and also on an indepen­ dent analysis, produced by Henry C. Kelly of the staff of the Office of Tech­ nology Assessment in collaboration with Richard L. Garwin and one of us (von Hippel), presented to the Commit­ tee on Foreign Relations that Septem­ ber. What emerges is this: Strikes caus­ ing relatively few casualties would be militarily insignificant; strikes inflicting appreciable damage on U.S. strategic forces would cause very large civilian casualties; even the most comprehen­ sive counterforce attack that was postu­ lated would leave the U.S. with such massive retaliatory capability as to make the counterforce strategy appear to be ineffective from the Russian point 10 MILES of view. CAUSE EFFECT We begin by examining the tech­ niques for calculating the civilian THERMAL BURNS AND FIRES, POSSIBLE FIRE STORM casualties resulting from a nuclear at­ RADIATION tack. Casualty levels depend sensitively CASUALTIES FROM BUILDING COLLAPSE BLAST on many factors, such as the nature of AND FLYING GLASS the attack, weather conditions and civil � NUCLEAR defense protection. The basic physics of RADIATION DEATHS warhead effects, however, is fairly well � RADIATION established and widely known; it is set forth most comprehensively in The F;!­ IMMEDIATE EFFECTS of a nuclear explosion are due to the initial nuclear radiation, the feets of Nuclear Weapons, a publication air blast and the thermal radiation. The approximate radii at which the various effects would of the Department of Defense and the be significant are given here for a one-megaton nuclear warhead exploded near the surface. Atomic Energy Commission, edited by Samuel Glasstone, that was published originally in 1957 and in revised form DOSE (IN REMS) in 1962. IF DELIVERED IF DELIVERED EFFECT For a low-altitude nuclear explosion OVER ONE WEEK OVER ONE MONTH releasing the energy equivalent of a mil­ THRESHOLD FOR 150 200 lion tons (one megaton) of TNT the im­ RADIATION ILLNESS mediate effects of blast, heat and nu­ clear radiation would extend over an 250 350 5 PERCENT MAY DIE area around ground zero with a radius of about 10 miles. At military targets 450 600 50 PERCENT MAY DIE near populated places, such as naval shipyards, missile-submarine bases and some command centers, the Defense BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS of nuclear radiation vary with the rate at which a dose isdelivered.
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