Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections

A Graphical Story

SÖREN HOLMBERG Senior Professor Former Research Director of the Swedish National Election Studies Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg December 2020 US Presidential Elections 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 2008 percent 2012 percent Barack Obama (Democrat) 52,9 Barack Obama (Democrat) 51,0 John McCain (Republican) 45,7 Mitt Romney (Republican) 47,2 Ralph Nader (Independent) 0,6 Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 1,0 Bob Barr (Libertarian) 0,4 Jill Stein (Greens) 0,4 Cynthia McKinney (Greens) 0,1 Others 0,4 Others 0,3 100,0 100,0

2016 percent 2020 percent Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 48,2 Joe Biden (Democrat) 51,4 Donald Trump (Republican) 46,1 Donald Trump (Republican) 46,8 Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 3,3 Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1,2 Jill Stein (Greens) 1,1 Howie Hawkins (Greens) 0,3 Evan McMullin (Independent) 0,5 Others 0,3 Others 0,8 100,0 100,0 Estimated Turn-Out 2008: 131,3 million voters; eligible voters 213 million; turn-out per cent 61.6% Estimated Turn-Out 2012: 129,1 million voters; eligible voters 222 million; turn-out per cent 58,2% Estimated Turn-Out 2016: 136,7 million voters; eligible voters 230,9 million; turn-out per cent 59,2% Estimated Turn-Out 2020: 158,5 million voters; eligible voters 239,3 million; turn-out percent 66,2% Turn-Out in US Presidential Elections % 100

70 66,2 62,3 63,8 62,8 62,5 61,6 60,2 58,1 60,1 58,2 59,2 60 56,2 54,8 54,2 55,2 54,2 52,2 52,8 51,7 50

0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Source: Stanley and Niemi: Vital Statistics in American Politics and McDonald: US Election Project. The turn-out figures represent the percentage of the eligible electorate that cast votes in presidential elections. Regional Voting per cent Democrats

% 70 60 59 60 57 56 North 54 55 58 59 53 East 49 50 47 47 46 51 44 43 45 42 46 South 44 40 42 43 41 41 41 36 30

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Difference Northeast-South -3 -2 +11 +8 +6 +9 +14 +14 +14 -- -- +12 +16 +16 +12

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2008; averaged official election results for 7 Southern and 9 Northeastern states in 2008, 2012 and 2016. Edison’s published exit polling data in 2012 and 2016 did not contain any regional breakdowns, but did so in 2020 Gender per cent Democrats

% 60 56 54 54 55 55 54 51 Women 50 49 50 45 44 45 Men 50 49 48 45 40 43 43 44 41 41 41 36 37 30

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Difference Women-Men ±0 +9 +7 +8 +4 +11 +11 +7 +6 +10 +13 +8

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. Age per cent Democrats

% 70 66 60 60 60 Under 30 54 55 51 53 51 49 50 50 44 47 65+ 47 47 48 48 40 46 46 45 40 43 45 41 39 30

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Difference Young-Old +4 +3 +1 -2 -7 +5 -3 +8 +20 +15 +10 +13

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. Ethnic Group per cent Democrats

% 100 95 90 93 89 88 89 90 85 86 83 83 84 87 Blacks 80

70 76 69 72 71 65 Hispanic 67 60 63 66 61 61 56 50 53 41 White 40 47 43 43 43 40 39 41 39 30 36 35 37

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Difference Black-White +36 +49 +54 +46 +44 +41 +47 +47 +52 +54 +52 +46

Jews 64 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 78 69 71 68 Asians ------56 62 73 65 61

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. The result for Jews in 2020 comes from AP VoteCast. Religion per cent Democrats

% 60 54 53 54 49 50 52 Catholics 50 47 47 46 45 45 44 44 42 42 41 40 40 39 40 38 41 35 36 39 Protestants 32 36 34 34 White 30 31 33 33 32 Protestants 30 27 27 26 24 White Born 20 23 24 21 21 Again Christians 18 16 10

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Jews 64 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 78 69 71 68 Weekly Church Goers 36 - 39 39 43 39 41 -

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. The result for Jews in 2020 comes from AP VoteCast. Marital Status per cent Democrats

% 70 65 62 60 57 58 58 57 55 Unmarried 53 51 50 47 Married 47 46 40 44 44 44 42 42 42 40 38 30

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Difference - - +9 +11 +11 +13 +13 +16 +18 +20 +11 +12 Unmarried-Married

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. Gays/Lesbians per cent Democrats

% 80 77 76 77 72 71 70 70 66 64 60

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. Income per cent Democrats % 80 73 Under 70 63 $15 000 58 59 60 57 63 53 60 Under 57 $30 000 50 53 54 54 49 47 $100 000 40 45 44 43 41 42 and over 38 30 32 20

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Difference Under $ 30K – $100K+ -- -- +15 +11 +16 +11 +19 +6 +12

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. In 1992-2012 the under $30 000 income category was defined as $15 000 - $29 000. Education per cent Democrats % 70

58 58 62 Post Graduate 60 55 55 52 52 52 49 50 51 50 51 48 47 46 51 Some College 43 51 48 43 48 49 46 High School 39 45 46 40 42 41 43 38 35 30

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Difference Post Grad – HS -- -- -1 +7 +1 +4 +8 +6 +4 +12 +16

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. Response alternatives were more specified in 2020 than in previous years. Level of Education/Whites Only % 80 per cent Democrats 70 67

60 51 58 49 49 50 48 50 Non-college 50 47 47 44 50 42 Graduate 40 40 39 45 45 40 37 35 36 34 45 44 41 34 41 31 39 40 39 31 College 27 30 33 34 Graduate 23 32 29 27 29 20

0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Difference Non Grad +35 +14 +9 +16 +20 +4 -6 +13 +7 -6 ±0 +2 +4 -5 -5 -3 -7 -19 - - Grad ------16 -19

Source: ANES 1948-2016. White Non-Hispanic. Non-College Graduates vs. College Graduates. In 1948 No College Education vs. at least Some College Education. The (……) results for 2016 and 2020 come from the NEP/Edison exit poll. US Party Identification % 60 52 50 47 44 45 45 41 41 40 36 40 37 36 37 35 37 35 34 34 35 Democrat 32 36 Republican 30 33 29 30 28 27 28 27 28 27 28 25 25 25 26 20 23 23 23 24

0 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Independent 23 23 23 23 30 34 37 34 34 36 38 35 40 39 39 38 37 - 31 26

Source: ANES 1952 – 2016. The (…..) results for 2016 and 2020 come from the NEP/Edison exit poll. US: Independents % 45 40 39 39 40 38 38 37 37 Pure 36 35 Independents 34 34 34 35 plus Leaners 30 30

25 23 23 23 23

20 17 17 15 14 14 Democratic 15 12 11 12 11 11 12 10 Leaners 10 9 13 11 10 8 12 12 12 12 12 7 11 11 11 Republican 10 10 10 9 Leaners 5 7 6 6 6

0 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Pure 6 9 10 8 11 13 15 13 11 11 12 9 12 10 11 14 15 Independents

Source: ANES 1952-2016. Per cent pure independents is 10 per cent in face-to-face-studies in 2012 and 2016, and 16 per cent in both years in web studies. US Ideological Self-Identification Liberal Conservative % 40 37 35 35 35 35 36 36 35 35 33 34 33 33 34 33 34 33 33 33 33 35 31 31 31 32 32 31 29 29 30 30 30 30 28 31 31 29 25 28 28 28 28 26 27 27 26 27 26 27 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 27 25 24 24 25 24 25 25 20 22 23 22 15

0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mod. 36 38 38 37 37 37 40 39 40 39 37 39 37 35 37 34 39 35 35 36 36 38 38 37 37 37 37 36 39 39 39 31

Source: DKs 1 – 6%; General Social Survey, NORC 1973-2018. The (……) results for 2020 come from YouGov in late October 2020. Ideology per cent Democrats

% 100 89 86 93 90 85 84 Liberals 81 80 78 80 71 70 68 70 60 60 62 Moderates 60 57 56 50 53 54 52 51 50 47 47 40 42 30 29 20 23 20 20 17 19 18 17 17 15 Conservatives 10 15 16

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Difference Lib – Cons +42 +37 +53 +62 +50 +58 +63 +70 +69 +69 +68 +78

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2016. The results for 2020 come from YouGov in late October 2020. Party Preference per cent Democrats % 100 92 94 87 89 89 89 Democrat 90 82 84 77 77 80 75 70 67

60 52 54 49 Independent 50 45 45 43 43 43 42 38 40 35 30 30

20 13 9 8 8 10 8 9 8 10 6 6 6 6 Republican 0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Difference Dem – Rep +68 +59 +69 +74 +67 +71 +79 +83 +80 +86 +81 +88

Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP/Edison 2004-2020. www.gu.se/valforskningsprogrammet