Munich Personal RePEc Archive A Drought-Induced African Slave Trade? Boxell, Levi Stanford University 3 March 2016 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69853/ MPRA Paper No. 69853, posted 06 Mar 2016 12:59 UTC A Drought-Induced African Slave Trade?∗ Levi Boxell† Stanford University First Version: June 6, 2015 This Version: March 4, 2016 Abstract Historians have frequently suggested that droughts helped facilitate the African slave trade. By introducing a previously unused dataset on historical rainfall levels in Africa, I provide the first empirical answer to this hypothesis. I demonstrate how negative rainfall shocks and long-run shifts in the mean level of rainfall increased the number of slaves exported from a given region and can have persistent effects on the level of development today. Using a simple economic model of an individual’s decision to participate in the slave trade, along with observed empirical heterogeneity and historical anecdotes, I argue that consumption smoothing and labor allocation adjustments are the primary causal mechanisms for the negative relationship between droughts and slave exports. These findings contribute to our understanding of the process of selection into the African slave trade and have policy implications for contemporary human trafficking and slavery. JEL Classification: N37, N57, O15, Q54 Keywords: slave trade, climate, droughts, consumption smoothing, human trafficking ∗Acknowledgments: I would like to thank Jiwon Choi, John T. Dalton, James Fenske, Matthew Gentzkow, Namrata Kala, Andres Shahidinejad, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Michael Wong for their comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are mine. †SIEPR, Stanford University (Email:
[email protected]) 1 1 Introduction The African slave trade significantly altered modern economic and cultural outcomes (Nunn, 2008).