The New Pioneers Rand Simberg

2 2 The New Pioneers Rand Simberg

ot long ago, the notion of any for the private industry, to (at a mini- entity other than a govern- mum) soothe investors’ qualms. But Nment putting a payload—let no one was yet seriously proposing alone a human being—into space private human spaceflight—the idea seemed absurd to most people. After was still only to provide alternate all, the space race had been between means of launching commercial or governments, and everyone knew government satellites. Even many in that it took billions upon billions the launch industry couldn’t fathom of dollars, and a market for even then the Rocketeers: How a Visionary Band of Business putting peo- rockets often Leaders, Engineers, and Pilots Is Boldly ple into space, failed. Who Privatizing Space other than from in the private By Michael Belfiore NASA, which sector could Harper Collins ~ 320 pp. ~ $26.95 (cloth) had the space afford such an shuttle for get- outlay on such a risky venture for ting its astronauts there. Given the such a seemingly small return? As a doubts about the market and the con- result of this understandable skepti- cerns about affordability and safety, cism, in the early 1980s, the first few it’s not surprising that the notion of commercial launch startup compa- private manned spaceflight suffered nies had to persuade both investors from what many in the emerging and government regulators that they commercial space industry called had serious and credible plans for “the giggle factor.” building private rockets. But in the last few years, the giggle In 1984, the U.S. government factor has rapidly evaporated. First, acknowledged that there was poten- a team led by engineer and entre- tial for a private launch industry preneur Burt Rutan won the $10 when Congress, at the behest of this million Ansari X-Prize in 2004 by new class of entrepreneurs and the putting a man into space with two Reagan administration, passed the consecutive flights in as many weeks. Commercial Space Launch Act. For Next Rutan’s team made a deal with the first time, the government rec- Richard Branson, the billionaire who ognized the necessity of providing a founded Virgin Records, then Virgin predictable regulatory environment Airlines, and now Virgin Galactic

Spacelines—which quickly took mil- mine at the Rotary Rocket company). lions of dollars of deposits from Binnie’s experience, as relayed by prospective private space travelers. Belfiore, reads like a brochure for one The new interest from investors and of the new space travel companies: the readiness of customers to fly in space have reinvigorated a private The instant the howling of the spaceflight industry that had grown engine cut off, Binnie could take his eyes off the display that had moribund in the early part of the commanded his attention since new millennium after the prospec- the drop, let his hands float from tive commercial satellite market col- the controls, and just enjoy the lapsed in the wake of the dot-com view. And what a view it was! bust. In fact, many of the investors Ahead was the fathomless black in this resurgence of private space void of space. He almost felt it as were themselves dot-com million- much as saw it: a “vast presence, aires who had either gotten out looming and yawning through before the bubble burst (such as the spaceship’s little windows,” Elon Musk of PayPal) or who had full of “menace and mystery.” survived it and thrived (such as Jeff Bezos of Amazon and Paul Allen Belfiore, who clearly spent con- of Microsoft, the latter of whom siderable time visiting a number of underwrote Rutan’s prize-winning the so-called “NewSpace” companies achievement). and talking to their founders and This new manned spaceflight employees, provides backgrounds industry is now comprehensive- and histories of the industry and ly chronicled for the first time by its leaders. While Burt Rutan was freelance journalist Michael Belfiore, fairly well known even before he a frequent contributor to Popular won the X-Prize for projects such Science. Rocketeers gives a behind-the- as his innovative kit planes of the scenes look at several of the new space 1970s and his design of the aircraft companies, most of which formed in that performed the first non-stop trip the 1990s and are only now hitting around the world, Belfiore also spot- their stride, and a few of which are of lights other, less-known pioneers. the new millennium, including Musk’s He tells the stories of Jeff Greason, Space Exploration Technologies and the CEO and one of the founders of Bezos’s Blue Origin. Belfiore vividly XCOR Aerospace, a Caltech whiz depicts the spaceflights themselves, kid who was the youngest project as described to him by participants manager at Intel; Chuck Lauer, real- like Brian Binnie, the pilot of Rutan’s estate developer and marketer for SpaceShipOne during the winning X- space tourism vehicles and hotels; Prize flight (and a former colleague of Tim Pickens, self-educated rocket

FALL 2007 ~ 89 Copyright 2007. All rights reserved. See www.TheNewAtlantis.com for more information. RAND SIMBERG mechanic with his own rocket-pow- sitting around. So design it the ered bicycle and pickup truck, and a best you can do in that two-day major contributor to SpaceShipOne’s period, and when you come in the engine; and many others. This is next time, we’ll have one sitting a book not about just rockets and on your desk.”... rocket planes, but about visionaries “So we redesigned it,” Schneider told me, “and the next time I’d and their dreams. come, Shoomp!, it had evolved to Many of Belfiore’s vignettes the thing I and some of the other accentuate the difference between fellows here designed.” what you might call the government modus operandi, with its risk The point is not so much that aversion and cautious analysis, and NASA’s way is wrong and Bigelow’s that of the entrepreneur in a hurry. right, as that, with so many new play- He describes the design process at ers doing so many things in parallel, Bigelow Aerospace: this burgeoning industry is much more likely to find new approach- Putting preliminary designs into physical form isn’t exact- es and innovation. The NewSpace ly the norm in aerospace engi- approach has much more in common neering, and it took some get- with the proliferation of aircraft con- ting used to for Schneider. At cepts in the 1920s and 30s than it NASA, Schneider explained to does with the monoculture of NASA’s me, “We would sit down and do bureaucratic approach. all the engineering first before we ever cut any metal, period.” elfiore was born too late to recall When Schneider joined Bigelow BNASA’s glory days firsthand— Aerospace as a consultant, he was he was an infant when the last Apollo amazed by Bigelow’s insistence astronauts walked on the Moon— on producing a machined part for but he was still a space enthusiast every revision of a design—and from an early age. As he explains in the skill with which Bigelow’s the book’s preface, he got hooked on machinists turned them out in science fiction, and particularly the short order....Schneider told Big- work of Robert Heinlein. The reader elow that he planned to “go ahead of Belfiore’s book gets the sense and design it right the first time” that his youthful passion for space before spending a lot of time machining parts that weren’t ulti- has been rekindled. In his eagerness mately going to be used. But Big- to delve into this new and exciting elow would have none of it. “Well, industry, Belfiore seems to have I’m not used to that,” he said. “I almost “gone native” in his enthusi- have to keep these guys busy out asm and lost an objective, reportorial there because I don’t want them distance. The most notable example

90 ~ THE NEW ATLANTIS Copyright 2007. All rights reserved. See www.TheNewAtlantis.com for more information. THE NEW PIONEERS is his description of the vision of Bob energy by beaming it from space to Bigelow, a Las Vegas hotelier who is the ground. To be sure, SPS is an developing inflatable space facilities interesting concept, but there is no for sale or rent as hotels or space reason why he should focus on it research labs: to the exclusion of other potential future off-planet activities. While it is At forty-five feet long and quite plausible to imagine large-scale twenty-two feet in diameter, the human traffic to and from space, and BA-330 would have more habitable volume than anything ever even a vast amount of activity in lunar launched into space in one piece. orbit, SPS is itself a step beyond that These two mockups, linked end in terms of required technologies— to end by a docking module as and other terrestrial energy solu- they might be in orbit, enclosed tions (such as nuclear power or more an interior volume larger than effective ground-based collection of that of the then-current configu- solar energy) are likely to come to ration of the International Space the fore long before beamed space Station. power becomes practical. Moreover, I found myself tearing up. “That if beaming power from space becomes is awe-inspiring,” I breathed. This practical, there are many architec- guy was actually building real tures more likely than the one Belfiore hardware, not just turning out the computer-generated concept describes, which is of 1970s vintage images that aerospace companies and based on outdated technologies. seemed to love so much. Big- (I can say this with some authority, elow made no comment to my having been a project manager of SPS little exclamation, though this studies at a major aerospace compa- was surely the reaction that he’d ny.) It would have been far better had hoped for. Belfiore spent more time imagining and describing the range of potential Belfiore concludes his book with a new activities and businesses that projection of the state of the solar sys- will be enabled by low-cost access to tem in the year 2034. The first part space—such as lunar tourism, asteroid of this account is reasonable—rocket mining, and private space exploration planes are providing fast trips from to other bodies and planets—instead point to point on Earth; private enter- of ending the book on this misguided prise and foreign competition have and obsolete note. finally chased NASA out of the market for delivering people to low Earth n a field as dynamic as this one, orbit. But then Belfiore digresses into Iany book about such recent his- a description of solar power satellites tory can be quickly overtaken by (SPS) providing abundant “green” events. Already since its publication

FALL 2007 ~ 91 Copyright 2007. All rights reserved. See www.TheNewAtlantis.com for more information. RAND SIMBERG in mid-2007, there have been some SpaceShipTwo, the successor to the changes in the prospects of sev- rocket plane that won the X-Prize in eral of the companies described, with 2004. SpaceShipTwo is the commer- some setbacks and some advances. cial vehicle that Richard Branson’s Consider these final thoughts a brief Virgin Galactic intends to use for updated epilogue to the book. its space passenger flights. Three On the downside, Rocketplane Scaled Composites employees were Kistler (RpK) was unable to raise killed, and another three injured. the hundreds of millions of dollars With investigations underway, devel- needed to complete building the reus- opment of the motor is reportedly able orbital launch vehicle with which on hold, the (always unannounced) the company hoped to deliver cargo rollout schedule for SpaceShipTwo to the International Space Station to has been delayed, and there is uncer- satisfy the requirements of NASA’s tainty as to the future direction of Commercial Space Transportation the engine’s development. As of this Services (COTS) program. In failing writing, there has still been no public to do so, RpK missed several sched- announcement by Scaled Composites uled milestones that were necessary as to the cause of the accident, or for the company to receive progress plans for SpaceShipTwo propul- payments from the space agency under sion. According to Virgin Galactic’s the terms of its Space Act agreement. Chief Operating officer, Alex Tai, all NASA waited patiently for several options are still on the table. months but could not wait indefi- But there has been some good nitely, especially with other potential news as well. Since the book came vendors (including the other COTS out, Belfiore’s most-admired entre- winner, SpaceX) champing at the bit preneur, Bob Bigelow, has announced to get ahold of the money intended an acceleration by two years of his for RpK. In fall 2007, NASA termi- previous plans to launch his first nated the contract with RpK and inflatable habitable module. He plans reopened bidding, with an announce- to put it into orbit by 2010 on ment expected early in 2008. a Russian launch vehicle. Bigelow In another setback for the indus- claims to have made the decision try, on July 26, 2007, less than a because launch prices were going week before the release of Belfiore’s up and he wanted to save money. book, there was an explosion on a Schedule slippage is endemic, and test stand at the Mojave Airport even expected, in the space industry. (and Spaceport), where Scaled Schedule acceleration is rare—almost Composites, Burt Rutan’s company, unheard of. This is a dramatic dem- was developing the hybrid (liquid onstration of the difference between oxidizer, solid fuel) rocket motor for a government program and one on

92 ~ THE NEW ATLANTIS Copyright 2007. All rights reserved. See www.TheNewAtlantis.com for more information. THE NEW PIONEERS which private investors are spending, description of today’s emerging pri- and striving not to waste, their own vate space industry would do well to money. read Belfiore’s book. So, too, would The fast pace of change in this anyone who wants to understand the industry makes it a challenge for impulse underlying this new space even dedicated bloggers to keep up, age—the entrepreneurial spirit that let alone the authors of books. But hints at better prospects for fulfilling Rocketeers will stand the test of time the promises unmet by the old one. as a useful snapshot of a particularly exciting period in the history of the Rand Simberg is an aerospace engineer pioneering effort to open up the cos- and a consultant in space commercializa- mos not just for astronauts, but for tion, space tourism, and Internet security. the rest of us. Anyone who wants His blog, Transterrestrial Musings, can an entertaining and well-crafted be found at www.transterrestrial.com.