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Vehicle Concept Exploration and Avionics Architecture Design for a Fast Package Delivery System by Dylan F

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Vehicle Concept Exploration and Avionics Architecture Design for a Fast Package Delivery System by Dylan F Vehicle Concept Exploration and Avionics Architecture Design for a Fast Package Delivery System by Dylan F. Glas S.B., Aeronautics and Astronautics (1997) Massachusetts Institute of Technology S.B., Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (1997) Massachusetts Institute of Technology Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ENGINEERING IN AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2000 @ Dylan F. Glas, 2000. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. A uthor.................. ............. .......... / Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics May 14, 2000 Certified by............ ........ ...... R. John Hansman, Jr. Professor, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor Certified by ......... Charles Boppe Senior Lecturer, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor Accepted by .................... .................................. Nesbitt Hagood MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE Chairman, Graduate Office OF TECHNOLOGY SEP 0 7 2000 LIBRARIES Vehicle Concept Exploration and Avionics Architecture Design for a Fast Package Delivery System by Dylan F. Glas Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on May 14, 2000, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ENGINEERING IN AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS Abstract Fast Package Delivery was explored as a possible commercial application of advanced reusable launch vehicle technologies. The market was divided into two distinct segments: an on-demand charter service for urgent deliveries, and a scheduled service similar to today's overnight delivery services. System reliability is a strong driver for both cases. For the on-demand case, vehicle speed is of critical importance. In order to provide on-demand service, only one customer may be served per vehicle flight. Since the price a customer will pay is highly sensitive to vehicle speed, the optimal vehicle concept was determined to be a Mach 6 hypersonic aircraft. Due to the small payload weight (200 lb) the overall vehicle size and cost are highly sensitive to equipment weight. Therefore substantial savings could be realized if the aircraft were unmanned. Flight operations would most likely be autonomous during cruise, but remotely piloted during launch and landing. Scheduled service, due to its much larger projected payload (6000 lb), is less sensitive to the weight of onboard equipment, and would not need to be unmanned. Packages from many customers would be carried at once, enabling lower prices to be charged to each customer. Lower prices mean that lower vehicle speeds would be acceptible to the customers, and so the optimal vehicle concept for scheduled service was found to be a Mach 2-3 supersonic transport. Unfortunately, due to the inherent unreliability of experimental technologies, Fast Package Deliv- ery does not appear to be a feasible application at this time. However, once supersonic and reusable launch vehicle technologies begin to mature, Fast Package Delivery should be considered as a real- istic business prospect. This paper presents the market analysis, system requirements development, vehicle concept selection, and avionics considerations for a Fast Package Delivery system. Thesis Supervisor: R. John Hansman, Jr. Title: Professor, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor: Charles Boppe Title: Senior Lecturer, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics 2 Acknowledgements Since its inception in 1997, many hands contributed to this project. First of all, I would like to thank the team: Kurt Palmer, Anand Karasi, Martin Chan, and especially Jared Martin, whose passion for Reusable Launch Vehicles carried Fast Package Delivery to the next level. This was by no means an individual effort, and I've learned a lot from all of you. Many thanks also go to the faculty advisors who helped us along the way: Pete Young, Stan Weiss, Manuel Martinez-Sanchez, Mark Spearing, and my advisor, John Hansman. Thanks most of all to Charlie Boppe, who really helped to pull the whole project together, who was there for every design meeting, and who spent countless hours going through drafts of my thesis. I would also like to acknowledge a number of individuals for their contributions to this project: " Curtis McNeal, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center * David Quin, Emery Expedite " Jeff Kobielush, UPS Sonic Air " Gary Schwartz, Draper Laboratories On a personal level, this thesis represents much more to me than the completion of a single project, or even a single degree program. This marks the end of seven years of my life spent in and around MIT, and I have many acknowledgements to give for helping me get to this point. To Lee Hasey, Joel Wexler, Joe Gooze, and Elena Ruehr, truly some of the most amazing teachers I have ever had - I can never thank them enough for their hard work and the inspiration they have given me. To my a cappella group, the Toons, an incredibly talented and passionate group of individuals. They really provided the fire that kept me going through the difficult times. To Hiroshi Ishii at the MIT Media Lab, and to James Kessler at Sapient, whose leadership and encouragement helped me to achieve more than I ever thought I could, and whose wise advice continues to guide me through life. To Ben, Teddy, Chris, Johnny, Radu, Peter Ju, KIP, Peter Finin, and the other brothers of Phi Kappa Theta at MIT, for all the friendship, energy, challenging ideas, and opportunities they have given me. To my sister Robin, who means more to me than I can really put into words. To the 281 crew - Marcel, Heather, Heidi, Joel, and Rebecca - for their unique perspectives, late-night conversations, hilarious good times, and so many other memories. And finally, I must thank my parents for all the knowledge, patience, love, and wisdom that they've given me over the years. 3 Contents 1 Introduction 9 1.1 Fast Package Delivery (FPD) ..... ........... .... 9 1.2 Related Research Projects ................... ... 10 1.2.1 Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS) ..... 10 1.2.2 Boeing's Suborbital Freight Delivery Concept Exploration . 10 1.2.3 X-Prize Contenders ....... ...... ....... 10 2 Market Predictions 11 2.1 The Packages .... ..... ...... ..... ...... ... 11 2.1.1 Time-Critical Packages .. ..... ..... ..... ... 11 2.1.2 Perishables .. ....... ....... ...... .... 12 2.1.3 High Value-per-Pound Items ...... ...... .... 13 2.2 The Projections ... ........ ....... ....... ... 13 2.3 The Problem .... ........ ....... ....... ... 17 2.3.1 Scheduled Service . ...... ....... ....... 18 2.3.2 On-Demand Service . ....... ....... ...... 22 3 System Requirements 25 3.1 Introduction. ........ ....... ........ ..... 25 3.2 Customer Needs ....... ....... ........ ..... 25 3.3 System Tools: Quality Function Deployment ....... .... 27 3.3.1 QFD Analysis for Scheduled Service .. ...... .... 28 3.3.2 QFD Analysis for On-Demand Service . ...... .... 35 4 Concept Selection 40 4.1 Vehicle Concepts .......... ........... ...... 40 4.1.1 Initial Concepts .. ........... .......... 40 4.1.2 Final Concepts .... ....... ....... ...... 41 4 4.2 Comparison Study --- -- --- 49 4.2.1 Scoring the Concepts .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 50 4.2.2 Scheduled Service Concept .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 53 4.2.3 On-Demand Service Concept . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 53 5 Scheduled Service 56 5.1 Overview . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- -- -- - . - -- . 56 5.2 Vehicle Solutions .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- . -. .. 56 5.3 Scheduling .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - -- . .. .. .. .. 57 5.4 Challenges . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- -. - -- -- . .. .. .. 57 6 On-Demand Service 59 6.1 Overview .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 59 6.2 Vehicle Layout . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 60 6.3 M ission Profile .. .. .. .. .. .. - -- . -- - - . .. .. .. .. .. 61 6.4 Propulsion System .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 62 6.5 Thermal Analysis .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 63 6.6 M aterials .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- - -- - . .. - -- -- - -- . 64 6.7 Avionics . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - - -- -- - - . - - -- - . .. .. .. 64 6.8 Further Research .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - . -- -- - - . .. .. 65 7 Avionics Architecture 66 7.1 Overview . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- -. .. .. .. 66 7.2 Assumptions . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - . - -- - -- -- - . 66 7.3 Safety Considerations .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - - . - -- . .. .. 67 7.4 Components .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - -- -- . .. .. .. 68 7.4.1 Air Data .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - - -- . -- - . .. .. 68 7.4.2 Navigation . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- -. - - . .. .. .. 70 7.4.3 Video .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - -- - -- -- - -- -- - -- -- - 71 7.4.4 Communication .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - -- - . - -- -- -- -- .. 71 7.4.5 Propulsion .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -- -- . - -- -- - -- -- . 72 7.4.6 Electrical Power . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 73 7.4.7 Other actuators . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - . .. - . - - . 74 7.5 Processing . .. .. .. .. .. .. -- -. - . - -- - -- -- - -- -- - -- - 74 7.5.1 Flight Control System . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - . .. 74 7.5.2 State Estimator . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 76 7.5.3 Guidance Module .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - -- - -- - - . 77 5 7.5.4 GCS Command Relay ---- 77 7.5.5 M ission
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