MIBC Moscow-City June 2016
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RESEARCH MIBC Moscow-City June 2016 1 MIBC MOSCOW-CiTY JUNE 2016 RESEARCH Demand Office buildings delivered and under construction on the territory of MIBC Moscow-City The occupiers of Moscow-City are MIBC Moscow-City transnational companies, owning the whole Northern Tower Federation Tower (West) towers (Transneft JSC, VTB Group) as well 2-nd Krasnogvardeyskiy ln. Federation Tower (East) as companies leasing small representative Renaissance Mercury City Moscow Towers plot №20 Moscow-City is the largest investment project in Moscow based on offices (less than 1 thousand sq m). А the concept of the developed areas of the world business capitals, Vystavochniy ln. А comprising office, residential, retail and hotel components. Today public non-profit organizations, major А Grand Tower oil companies and commercial organizations 1-st Krasnogvardeyskiy ln. А mainly of Russian origin display a keen А interest in Moscow-City. These companies g n i Vystavochnaya r took advantage of the current market t А r А o conditions to consolidate their offices and p Delovoy s А n Center a optimize the rental costs. Nevertheless, the r T Supply Evolution Tower share of foreign tenants reached 60% at d А r - Vystavochnaya . 3 b the initial stage of the MIBC Moscow-City MezhdunarodnayMezhdunarodnaya a А m Russia Tower was projected to be the tallest their projects. The trend of office component e Today 11 buildings comprising office 4 B a development. - А ay t k building in Europe located at #17–18 plots reduction in favor of the increase of the areas h s premises are delivered with 905,5 thousand n ОКО K ne r А s of Moscow-City, but its construction was for apartments is actively spreading in the a re sq m GLA of offices. Class A office supply s p n А no Tower 2000 The companies of financial and banking o s refused in April 2009 by Moscow authorities. current market. Imperia business high-rise ra in Moscow-City holds about 20% of the g K v А sectors are the most common occupiers Eurasia Tower a The restart of the construction at these plots (phase II) is an example of such a conversion r Moscow Class A stock. d e А (circa 30%). The share of companies y was decided in 2012. The commissioning of of the assets at the initial stage of the project. sk Empire business iQ-quarter iy Renaissance Moscow Towers multifunctional operating in the field of mining, processing ln high-rise (phase II) В Federation Tower (East), IQ-quarter and . complex (replacing the original project) is and transportation of oil and gas is 14%. Renaissance Moscow Towers are currently The office space volume of Moscow-City City Point Naberezhnaya Tower Capital City Empire planned on 2019. business high-rise under construction. The development of will reach about 1.3 million sq m upon The companies with state participation Moscow-City should have been initially construction completion. Approximately occupy about half (47%) of delivered office completed in 2007, but the pace of 2014–2015 events has negatively influenced 160 thousand sq m of office space in Class А Class В Office area, sq m space. Lease and purchase transactions construction was slow and some projects were the economy and the office market in delivered projects are now available for А Completed B Completed completed by these companies have become revised or put on hold during the 2008-2009 particular: developers faced a decline in lease and purchase, 80% are in shell & core > 50,000 20,000–50,000 < 20,000 more common due to the desire to avoid А Under construction B Under construction crisis. The construction of Federation Tower demand for office space and as a result were condition. rental costs. (East) started in 2007 still has not finished. forced to reconsider the current concepts of Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Office buildings delivered and under construction on the territory of MIBC Moscow-City Offices 154.0 GBA, sq m Appartments 79.1 GLA, sq m Hotel Retail gallery Tower 2000 Evolution Empire Empire business City Point Capital City Naberzhnaya Tower IQ-quarter Eurasia Federation Mercury City Grand Tower OKO Renaissance Northern MFC business high-rise high-rise (phase II) Moscow Towers Tower Plot #0 Plot #2, 3 Plot #4 Plot #4 Plot #6, 7, 8 Plot #9 Plot #10 Plot #11 Plot #12 Plot #13 Plot #14 Plot #15 Plot #16 Plot #17, 18 Plot #19 Plot #20 F F F F F F Delivery date 2001 2015 2011 2018 2013 2008, 2009 2004, 2005, 2007 2017 2014 2007, 2016 2013 2019 2014 2018 2008 2018 Developer Promstroy Snegiri Federation Tower Renaissance Noerthern Tekhinvest Development MosCityGroup Solvers Estate Tashir Capital Group ENKA Hals-Development MosCityGroup (ex. Mirax Group, Potok) Mercury Development Grand Titul Capital Group Development Tower Solvers Estate 61.1 26.2 154.0 79.1 186.0 125.2 105.0 75.0 27.2 278.5 81.1 265.6 155.9 228.0 75.2 186.0 125.2 148.1 174.0 87.6 250.7 110.0 357.0 136.8 135.0 60.7 179.0 2 3 MIBC MOSCOW-CITY JUNE 2016 RESEARCH The vacancy rate fell down over the past Share of Russian and foreign companies- MIBC Moscow-City key indicators two years from 44% in 2014 to 18.6% as tenants in MIBC Moscow-City dynamics of June 2016 due to the completion of a number of major transactions. The amount of vacant space may reach 240,000 sq m after IQ-quarter office building delivery. thousand sq m % 250 50 44% MIBC Moscow-City has become a unique 28% business cluster with central location owing 200 40 to the reduced development activity and the restrictions imposed by the city authorities 150 30 for the construction of commercial real estate 22% 25% in the central part of Moscow. Moreover, 100 20 16% landlords offer large office units available for 72% 15% lease (over 10-15 thousand sq m). In case of 500 12% 10 market recovery the central business districts may experience a shortage of large units in 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F quality buildings. Russian companies Foreign companies Take-up volume New delivery volume Attractive business conditions combined VTB Group Vacancy rate with the high quality of projects contribute 4% 78% 4% to the gradual occupancy of Moscow-City 6% offices. This is reflected in the commercial Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 33% policy of some landlords not willing to adjust 7% the asking rents downwards after attracting anchor tenants. 9% Tenant mix 9% 14% 14% 87% Transneft VTB Group 4% 78% Banking/ Finance/ Investment 4% 6% Oil and energy industry 33% 7% B2B* TMT** 9% Non-profit organisations Real estate/ Construction 9% Manufacturing 14% 14% FMCG*** 87% Pharmaceutical Transneft Banking/ Finance/ Investment *Legal/ ConsultingOil and energy industry **Technology/ Media/ Telecommunication B2B* ***Fast moving consumer goods TMT** Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Non-profit organisations Real estate/ Construction Manufacturing FMCG*** CommercialPharmaceutical terms Rental rates in Moscow offices denominated caused by an excess of supply. During this in USD have displayed downward trend from period there were circa 540 thousand sq m 2012. The greatest decrease in commercial available for lease and purchase in delivered terms was recorded in Moscow-City offices and under construction buildings (51% of the in comparison with other business districts total volume). The high vacancy of 2014 was as here USD rates fell by 43% in 2013-2015. a result of the maximum delivery of office space in the MIBC Moscow-City history, while More dynamic reduction of rates was due such delivery was not supported by demand. to the high competition, which, in turn, was 4 MIBC MOSCOW-CITY JUNE 2016 RESEARCH The record amount of vacant office Office stock, vacancy rate and rental rates in key business districts in Moscow space accelerated the formation of RUR denominated market in the business district. 421.2 The landlords started to change commercial thousand sq m 340.7 terms in order to minimize the vacant space thousand sq m 17.0% by fixing the exchange rates or currency 11.3% band as well as reducing asking rental rates. About 90% of office space available for lease 344.6 in Moscow-City is offered in RUR, while, for thousand sq m example, in the Paveletskiy and Leningradskiy 18.2% business districts the share of Class A office 171.0 space offered in local currency is about 70%, Leningradskiy thousand sq m and in Belorusskiy business district – 44%. business district 14.0% Class А 16,000–25,000 rub./sq m/year Today, the average asking RUR rental rate 450–550 $/sq m/year Belorusskiy in delivered office buildings of Moscow- 786.5 Class B thousand sq m business district City is 27,631 rub./sq m/year (triple net), 11,000–22,500 rub./sq m/year and the rates vary significantly in the range Class А 20.8% 26,500–37,100 rub./sq m/year of 20,000–33,000 rub./sq m/year. The range 600–700 $/sq m/year is mainly dependent on the storey height Class B as well as the difference in the quality of 18,000–24,000 rub./sq m/year facilities and the condition of premises 567.2 available (fitted-out or shell & core). thousand sq m 480.9 thousand sq m Asking rental rates* for office premises 28.3% 17.8% in MIBC Voscow-City 119.1 thousand sq m $/sq m/ rub./sq m/ 3.8% year year 25,600– Fitted-out 600–770 MIBC Moscow-City 28,220 Class А 20,000– 20,000–33,000 rub./sq m/year Shell & Core – 33,000 600–820 $/sq m/year Paveletskiy Class B business district 19,000 rub./sq m/year Class А 20,000–30,000 rub./sq m/year 550–720 $/sq m/year Office stock volume Dynamics of RUR and USD asking rental 786.5 480,9 Class B thousand sq m thousand sq m 10,000–23,000 rub./sq m/year rates share in MIBC Moscow-City 20.8% Vacant rate 17.8% Occupied % Class А Class B 100 Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 80 Rental rates dynamics for MIBC Moscow-City offices 60 88% 90% $/sq m/year 100% 1,400 40 1,200 1,000 873 899 866 800 20 646 600 493 450 400 12% 10% 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2014 2015 H1 2016 646 RUR USD Average weighted rental rate Rental rates range Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 * triple net – excluding operational expenses, utility bills and VAT (18%) 5 MIBC MOSCOW-CITY JUNE 2016 RESEARCH Transport infrastructure Paid parking area The public transport system of Moscow- 1 9 0 City includes the lines of the Moscow metro 5 g and suburban train connection.