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MIBC Moscow-City December 2016 MIBC Moscow-City December 2016 Research MIBC Moscow-City December 2016 MIBC MOSCOW-CiTY DECEMBER 2016 RESEARCH Demand The occupiers of Moscow-City are MIBC Moscow-City transnational companies, owning the whole MIBC Moscow-City key indicators dynamics towers (Transneft JSC, VTB Group) as well thousand sq m % as companies leasing small representative 250 50 Moscow-City is the largest investment project in Moscow based on offices (less than 1 thousand sq m). the concept of the developed areas of the world business capitals, 44% comprising office, residential, retail and hotel components. Today public non-profit organizations, major oil companies and commercial organizations mainly of Russian origin display a keen 200 40 interest in Moscow-City. These companies took advantage of the current market conditions to consolidate their offices and Supply optimize the rental costs. Nevertheless, the 150 28% 30 share of foreign tenants reached 60% at 25% Today 11 buildings comprising office to be the tallest building in Europe located reduction in favor of the increase of the areas the initial stage of the MIBC Moscow-City premises are delivered with 905,5 thousand at #17–18 plots of Moscow-City, but its for apartments is actively spreading in the development. 22% 21% sq m GLA of offices. Class A office supply construction was refused in April 2009 current market. Imperia business high-rise 20% 100 20 in Moscow-City holds about 20% of the by Moscow authorities. The restart of the (phase II) is an example of such a conversion The companies of financial and banking construction at these plots was decided in of the assets at the initial stage of the project. Moscow Class A stock. sectors are the most common occupiers 12% 15% 2012. The commissioning of Neva Towers (circa 30%). The share of companies 12% Federation Tower (East), IQ-quarter and Neva multifunctional complex (replacing the The office space volume of Moscow-City operating in the field of mining, processing Towers are currently under construction. The original project) is planned on 2018. will reach about 1.3 million sq m upon and transportation of oil and gas is 14%. 50 10 development of Moscow-City should have construction completion. Approximately been initially completed in 2007, but the 2014–2015 events has negatively influenced 190 thousand sq m of office space in The companies with state participation pace of construction was slow and some the economy and the office market in delivered projects are now available for occupy about half (47%) of delivered office projects were revised or put on hold during particular: developers faced a decline in lease and purchase, 70% are in shell & core space. Lease and purchase transactions 0 0 the 2008-2009 crisis. The construction of demand for office space and as a result were condition. completed by these companies have become 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Federation Tower (East) started in 2007 still forced to reconsider the current concepts of more common due to the desire to avoid Take-up volume New delivery volume Vacancy rate has not finished. Russia Tower was projected their projects. The trend of office component rental costs. Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Office buildings delivered and under construction on the territory of MIBC Moscow-City Offices 154.0 GBA, sq m Appartments 79.1 GLA, sq m Hotel Retail gallery Tower 2000 Evolution Empire Empire business City Point Capital City Naberzhnaya Tower IQ-quarter Eurasia Federation Mercury City Grand Tower OKO ОКО Neva Towers Northern MFC business high-rise high-rise (phase II) (phase II) Tower Plot #0 Plot #2, 3 Plot #4 Plot #4 Plot #6, 7, 8 Plot #9 Plot #10 Plot #11 Plot #12 Plot #13 Plot #14 Plot #15 Plot #16 Plot #16B Plot #17, 18 Plot #19 Plot #20 F F F F F F F Delivery date 2001 2015 2011 2018 2013 2008, 2009 2004, 2005, 2007 2017 2014 2007, 2016 2013 2019 2014 2017 2018 2008 2019 Developer Promstroy Snegiri Federation Tower Renaissance Noerthern Tekhinvest Development MosCityGroup Solvers Estate Tashir Capital Group ENKA Hals-Development MosCityGroup (ex. Mirax Group, Potok) Mercury Development Grand Titul Capital Group Capital Group Development Tower Solvers Estate 61.1 26.2 154.0 79.1 186.0 125.2 105.0 75.0 27.2 278.5 81.1 265.6 155.9 228.0 75.2 186.0 125.2 148.1 174.0 87.6 250.7 110.0 23.4 21.0 357.0 136.8 135.0 60.7 179.0 2 3 MIBC MOSCOW-CiTY DECEMBER 2016 RESEARCH Office buildings delivered and under construction on the territory of MIBC Moscow-City Class А (delivered) Neva Towers Class А (under construction) Class В Plot #20 Northern Tower OKO (phase II) Grand Tower Mercury City The vacancy rate fell down over the past two years from 44% in 2014 to 20.9% as of Federation Empire business December 2016 due to the completion of a OKO Tower high-rise number of major transactions. The amount of vacant space may reach 240,000 sq m after Eurasia IQ-quarter office building delivery. Tower City Point Evolution Tower MIBC Moscow-City has become a unique business cluster with central location owing IQ-quarter Empire business to the reduced development activity and the high-rise (phase II) restrictions imposed by the city authorities Capital City for the construction of commercial real estate Naberezhnaya Tower in the central part of Moscow. Moreover, Tower 2000 landlords offer large office units available for lease (over 10-15 thousand sq m). In case of Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 market recovery the central business districts may experience a shortage of large units in quality buildings. Number of vacant office blocks in terms Tenant mix of condition and size Attractive business conditions combined with the high quality of projects contribute VTB Group to the gradual occupancy of Moscow-City 4% 76% 5% offices. This is reflected in the commercial Shell & Core 5% policy of some landlords not willing to adjust Fitted Out the asking rents downwards after attracting 6% 33% anchor tenants. 9% 10% Share of Russian and foreign companies- 14% tenants in MIBC Moscow-City 14% 87% Transneft 33 Banking / Finance / Investment 28% Oil and energy industry B2B* 22 TMT** 19 19 Non-profit organisations 72% Manufacturing Real estate / Construction FMCG*** 7 Pharmaceutical Russian companies 4 2 2 * Legal / Consulting Foreign companies 2,000–3,000 1,000–2,000 500–1,000 < 500 ** Technology / Media / Telecommunication *** Fast moving consumer goods Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 Source: Knight Frank Research, 2016 4 MIBC MOSCOW-CiTY DECEMBER 2016 RESEARCH Commercial terms Office stock, vacancy rate and rental rates in key business districts in Moscow Rental rates in Moscow offices denominated in USD have displayed downward trend from 786.4 211.4 thousand Office stock volume thousand 2012. The greatest decrease in commercial 786.4 sq m sq m terms was recorded in Moscow-City offices thousand sq m 20.8% Vacant area 17.8% in comparison with other business districts as here USD rates fell by 43% in 2013-2015. Occupied aria 20.2% Class А Class B More dynamic reduction of rates was due 554.4 thousand to the high competition, which, in turn, was sq m caused by an excess of supply. During this 445.1 period there were circa 540 thousand sq m 19.9% thousand sq m available for lease and purchase in delivered 382.4 thousand and under construction buildings (51% of the sq m 15.1% 311.5 total volume). The high vacancy of 2014 was 12.3% thousand a result of the maximum delivery of office sq m space in the MIBC Moscow-City history, while 211.4 181.1 29.4% thousand such delivery was not supported by demand. thousand sq m sq m 11.5% 119.1 thousand 18.3% The record amount of vacant office sq m 14.9% space accelerated the formation of RUR denominated market in the business district. The landlords started to change commercial MIBC Moscow-City Paveletskiy Leningradskiy Belorusskiy terms in order to minimize the vacant space business district business district business district by fixing the exchange rates or currency Class А Class А Class А Class А band as well as reducing asking rental 28,000–38,000 RUR/sq m/year 18,500–33,000 RUR/sq m/year 16,000–25,000 RUR/sq m/year 22,500–42,000 RUR/sq m/year rates. About 85% of office space available 600–750 USD/sq m/year 500–700 USD/sq m/year 450–550 USD/sq m/year 550–700 USD/sq m/year for lease in Moscow-City is offered in RUR, Class B Class B Class B Class B 18,000–20,500 RUR/sq m/year 17,000–23,000 RUR/sq m/year 11,000–22,500 RUR/sq m/year 17,000–22,000 RUR/sq m/year while, for example, in the Paveletskiy and Leningradskiy and Belorusskiy business districts the share of Class A office space offered in local currency is about 60–70%. Asking rental rates* for office premises in MIBC Moscow-City Today, the average asking RUR rental rate in Class А Class B delivered office buildings of Moscow-City is 27,802 RUR/sq m/year (triple net), and USD/sq m/year RUR/sq m/year USD/sq m/year RUR/sq m/year the rates vary significantly in the range of Fitted-out 600–750 34,000–38,000 – 18,000–20,500 18,000–32,000 RUR/sq m/year.
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