REF0044

Written evidence submitted by TravelWatch

Introduction London TravelWatch is the official body set up by Parliament to provide a voice for London’s travelling public including the users of all forms of public transport and its streets.

We promote integrated transport policies and press for better public transport, with higher standards of quality, performance and accessibility. We liaise with transport operators, providers, regulators and local authorities.

Our aim in all that we do is for a better travel experience for all those living, working or visiting London and its surrounding region. London is both unique and critically important to the UK, with 70% of passenger rail journeys starting, finishing or passing through London just one example of why having a good public transport system in London matters to the whole of the UK.

Key points  This pandemic has shown that London’s transport network needs to be more responsive to changing situations. It needs to be able to reallocate resources to the core areas, where the need is greatest. This may mean refocusing investment into outer London and orbital journeys rather than travel into the centre.  By the end of 2021/22 TfL are forecasting 80% of usual demand but it is too soon to know how realistic this forecast is. Therefore the financial model for funding Transport in London must be more resilient and less reliant on fares revenue.  There is a real risk that private car use will continue to rise and contribute to the dual problems of congestion and rising emissions. It is essential that potential solutions and decisions around road-space allocation promote active travel, but importantly include public transport, such as the prioritisation of the bus on London’s roads, as a key feature alongside walking and cycling.

The Inquiry

London TravelWatch welcomes the House of Commons Transport Select Committee’s inquiry.

1. The use of public transport and the way that people choose to travel, both locally and for longer domestic journeys

Predicting the near future, let alone the long term implications of the pandemic, on the way people travel is difficult. However, there is good data for how Londoners travelled pre-pandemic (TfL’s London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS)1) and surveys

1 London Travel Demand Survey, TfL https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/planning-for- the-future/consultations-and-surveys REF0044

tracking sentiment and reported travel (Transport Focus weekly tracker poll2). The DfT has published the statistics of transport use since the start of the pandemic3.

London TravelWatch has access to Network Rail’s major stations footfall survey. The Transport Technology Forum publishes Traffic counts (motor vehicles and bicycles) 4 collated from local authority counters. TfL has a comprehensive quarterly cycle count5 dating back to 2014.

TfL’s LTDS is a good statistic and reports mode shares for London residents. Although this is only a partial picture because long distance commuting from beyond the London boundary by non-London residents is not reported, it nevertheless indicates the orders of magnitude of the different modes. The charts below are derived from the LTDS data. It is also worthy of note that this survey has highlighted that trip making (trips per person) has been declining for a number of years.

2 Transport Focus Data hub https://transportfocusdatahub.org.uk/manager/Storyboard/ 3 Transport Focus Data hub 4 Transport Technology Forum, https://www.ttf.uk.net 5 TfL cycle counts, https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/travel-in-london-reports REF0044

Tr an sp ort Fo cu s’ we ekl y tra ck er pol l is a nat ion al poll of 2,000 people and can be split by region, so London results are available, which give some indication of differences between the capital and the UK as a whole.

Throughout the pandemic London TravelWatch has been considering the impacts on London’s transport users. The major drivers for change include the following but of course at this stage it is difficult to predict the scale of the impact of each.

Working from home We know this is a short term change, but survey results suggest there is likely to be a longer term impact. Throughout the pandemic Londoners have consistently said that they intend to work at home more often in the future. More Londoners say this than people in other parts of the country, and that figure has been rising. It is now 69%6.

Furlough and unemployment Both furlough and unemployment have meant less travel demand. These factors may be with us for a good while.

Population change There are newspaper reports7 of homeowners making life changing decisions to move out of the city, though these people may be replaced by those that want to move in. Underlying population growth will play its part.

6 Transport Focus Tracker Survey, 18 September 2020 7 https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/leaving-london-after-lockdown-righmove-home- buying-a138196.html REF0044

Staying local People are not commuting into the centre, many are staying local, potentially spending more time in their local streets and public spaces.

Fear of public transport The biggest short term determinant of people’s unwillingness to travel stems from the fear of transmission of the virus in the closed confines of public transport vehicles, along with industry and government messaging. That said, it has been reported that weekend and leisure travel has held up better and is returning, for example many people have travelled to the seaside on the train.8 The messaging and the confidence of the rail industry that its services are safe is growing, although messaging is not yet definitive enough to convince passengers.

Fares and the cost of travel The absolute and relative cost of travel is important to personal budgets and the finances of the transport industry, but it also has an influence on travel behaviour and modal choice. If public transport fares rise relative to private car then it will be used less. An example of this would be the proposed removal of free bus travel for under 18s in London (Zipcard), which although intended to encourage walking and cycling will also make public transport less price competitive compared to the use of the private car by families.

Online shopping Online shopping has become more popular during the pandemic. Shopping is a significant journey purpose and so its decline will continue to affect travel demand. Additionally, light van traffic is a growing proportion of road9 traffic

Public Transport Demand If public transport demand at peak hours does not recover to its pre-Covid peak, then demand will be more evenly spread through the day. To meet this change services will need to become more consistent across the day and week. In addition, with a dispersal where people live, improving connectivity and transport interchange will become much more important. These changes will mean a reform of fares and better promotion of services.

It is uncertain whether people will work and visit in central London in numbers anything like before. This may well affect rents, businesses and employment, and will have an effect on the provision of transport. Public transport will need to meet the needs of transport users as they change and a more flexible and responsive approach to planning services will be key.

8 Great Western Railway, https://www.gwr.com/ 9DfT published transport use during coronavirus: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use- during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic?utm_source=7eccbfbd-64c0-4d48-adeb- 993e7c7c5355&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=daily REF0044

Long term implications

All of the above factors and more will lead to a change in travel demand both in terms of volume and geographically. The capacity of public transport networks and the roads to respond to these changes will partly shape how we live and travel in the future. The following is commentary on the possible impacts.

Walking has the highest modal share. If more journeys become more local, walking is likely to increase locally, but less so as part of a linked trip, say to the station. It is a space efficient10 and active mode with local implications for changes to accommodate more walking.

Private car use has been encouraged as a way of safely travelling, but it is not space efficient and its growth will have many negative impacts on other users of the road, particularly bus passengers if journey times become further extended, but also on cyclists and pedestrians in terms of safety (perceived and real). This is an issue London has struggled with and will continue to do so. There is a consensus amongst policy makers that roads pricing would be the mechanism to tackle this issue, but to date there has been no political consensus on this.

Bus services have been the most popular public transport mode in London during the pandemic. Use is back up to 57% of pre-pandemic levels. Fear of using the underground, the demographic of bus users and their occupations, and the local nature of bus services may have led to this. In the longer term bus services will respond to demand quickly. This may well mean a reduction of services in the centre and more services in outer London. Express and orbital services are proposed for consideration though there are cost and operational implications. The response of TfL and its bus operators to the return to school has been reasonably successful with little deterioration in satisfaction seen in the Transport Focus tracker poll11.

Bus services have the most potential of all the public transport networks, but they must be given priority on London’s streets if they are to do this. Shashi Verma, TfL’s Chief Technology Officer and Director of Strategy said earlier this summer that buses ‘are the biggest bulk transport in London, and they deserve having priority over everything else’12. The recent implementation of a trial of 24/7 bus lanes on TfL’s roads and the Bishopsgate scheme creating a bus/cycle corridor are welcome. It must be recognised that bus is by far the most important public transport network using the roads, is used by everyone and is the most efficient user of road space. More needs to be done to prioritise buses and a better balance needs to be drawn between the allocation of road space for different modes. Operator costs, which continue to be particularly important, can also be reduced by bus lanes and bus priority schemes, which enable buses to run more reliably.

10 TfL’s Roads Taskforce Report, 2013, https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/roads- task-force 11 TF poll of bus satisfaction: https://transportfocusdatahub.org.uk/manager/Storyboard 12 https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/buses-deserve-priority-over-everything-else-london-roads- 24-hour-bus-lane-tfl-a4506966.html REF0044

London Underground has fared less well than the bus in attracting back patronage. It is at about 37% in mid-September 2020. There may be a greater fear of using the Underground following the images of overcrowding widely shown during the early days of the lockdown. But the demographic of its users and the longer distance nature, focussing on journeys to central London will have played a part. Unlike bus the Underground can’t easily adapt to changing demand, particularly spatial changes. Its costs are largely fixed and unavoidable. Significantly, unlike bus, it contributes to TfL’s income and supports other services.

National Rail footfall at the major London termini is at about 30% of the same time last year. The issues are similar to those of the . Train operators are, however, reporting rising demand at the weekend for leisure travel that indicates the decline in commuting may not all be about fear of travel.

Cycle is presently a small mode. Pre-pandemic it accounted for around 2.5% of all trips. During lockdown and after there were significant rises in cycling levels reported, particularly at weekends and on hot days13, though there has been a recent decrease in response to less clement weather. Nevertheless, there is potential for growth in the long term, perhaps building on the pandemic Streetspace interventions and particularly if there remains more local activity and trip making rather than longer journeys across the City.

The focus on cycling by TfL and Government has led to huge changes to London’s streets and some difficulties for users. This has alerted those representing disabled groups of the potential impacts of such schemes14. They are now playing catch-up in order to get their voice heard.

There is also the continuing challenge of road space allocation and the impacts of cycling schemes on bus performance where bus priority is lost and general motor traffic becomes more congested. Again, the 24/7 bus trials and the Bishopsgate bus/cycle corridors scheme may demonstrate how bus/cycle facilities can provide for more and safer cycling alongside Low Traffic Neighbourhood schemes.

Dock-less cycle and scooter schemes have a potential to offer some short distance alternative transport. However, this must be balanced with enforcement against misuse on pavements, and poor parking when not in use, where previous experience has been detrimental to the needs of pedestrians and people with reduced mobility.

Taxi and private hire vehicles The growth of mobility apps such as Uber and Gett has (alongside car clubs and good public transport) allowed many people in densely populated urban areas to choose not to own a private car. However, this has also led to congestion in ‘Honey Pot’ areas such as central London and airports. This

13 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52564351 14 Transport for All, https://www.transportforall.org.uk/files/streetscapestfatraveltalkreportjune2020.pdf REF0044

highlights the need for reform of existing Taxi and Private Hire legislation to bring it in line with modern passenger needs.

Motorcycles The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a previous trend in the increasing use of motorcycles and other powered two-wheelers for food and other deliveries. Whilst some of this usage may result in fewer private car journeys, some of it will be diverted from other modes. Motorcyclists are amongst the highest risk group in road injury statistics.

2. Central and local governmental transport priorities and finances and funding for transport

For the most part, transport is a local matter. Decisions are often best made at a local level.

TfL is in the unique position where it does not receive any direct government funding for day to day services. Covid-19 has shown how fragile it is for a transport provider to have to rely so heavily on fare box revenue (London relies on fares for 72% of its income, compared to 38% in Paris and New York15). The fragility of TfL’s funding model was demonstrated when they had to seek a bailout from the Government as Tube and bus usage fell to under 5% and under 20% of usual volumes respectively.

Whilst fewer people are expected to travel into central London for work each day, more people will be moving around in the areas where they live. This trend needs to be reflected in TfL’s spending priorities, with more attention being paid to schemes that will help people to get around in outer London, whether that be on foot, by bike or on the bus. The Government needs to recognise this by ensuring that part-time commuters have access to part time season tickets.

3. The devolution of transport policy-making responsibilities and powers

Transport policy has been devolved to the Mayor of London and the . Indeed, there is a legal duty on the Mayor that requires the production of a transport strategy that the boroughs must align with, although in practice there can be different approaches. Devolution and the management and control of much of the transport networks in London has been largely successful insofar as the public transport under the control of the mayor has generally improved things for passengers. The management of London’s streets and the implications for bus services has been less successful as the nettle of road congestion has not yet been grasped.

TfL’s overall control of much of London’s transport network when the pandemic struck meant that there was good coordination of effort across the transport industry. The

15 Finance Report and Revised Budget July 2020, page 23 REF0044

Mayor and TfL were able to take a lead in operating services and messaging. This included a substantial effort to manage demand for travel following the huge reduction in available capacity and working alongside the rail industry. It is worth noting that there has been good joint working across modes and organisations.

The coordination of changes to the road network to encourage more cycling and walking has clearly been a challenge with rebounding road use coinciding with the reduction in motor traffic capacity. Here, devolution of highway authority powers to 33 boroughs makes coordination more difficult.

The London Overground network has been one of the great success stories of recent years. TfL Rail has significantly improved the operation of the services they took over. Rail passengers across London should be able to enjoy the same level of service. Devolution of control for London’s metro rail systems would be of great benefit for London. Performance, customer satisfaction, long term planning and integration with other systems would all improve.

The future of rail in London The end of rail franchising, as announced on 21st September 2020, and replacement with transitional contracts which echo the concessionary model used by TfL, is an opportunity to do better for London rail passengers. London TravelWatch takes the view that TfL are the competent body to deliver rail in the Greater London region. Local accountability and local management is preferred, as it has proven to provide a better service to London. Passenger satisfaction and passenger numbers have risen significantly since 2007 on the routes covered by the London Overground concession, which previously was regarded as a very poor operation. Our full response to the Williams Rail Review Call for Evidence can be found on our website, which16 outlines our recommendations on devolution in full.

4. The resilience of the transport system for future crises

There are lessons that can be learned from this crisis regarding the resilience of the system, though this is a very particular crisis. Staff and management can be applauded for not only keeping the transport networks going but also innovating, as described in the last section. The train operating companies, in particular, appear to be working together with each other and Network Rail with regular communication and cross industry learning. We can attest to the work of TfL’s Travel Demand Management Forum and Network Rail’s crowding conference calls, that the industry is working together purposefully. The maintenance condition of railway is important and seems to have held up, though the need for emergency repairs of some road structures in London seems to have come to a head in an unplanned manner.

16 London TravelWatch evidence: https://www.londontravelwatch.org.uk/documents/get_lob?id=4770&field=file REF0044

It is of note that the performance of the network, whilst running below full capacity, was good. This demonstrates the benefits of running services below the maximum theoretical capacity and we hope lessons can be learnt from this.

5. The decarbonisation of transport and the capability to meet net zero carbon emissions targets by 2050

London TravelWatch is primarily a consumer watchdog and as such these matters are not a focus for us. However, they are clearly important. Our policies promote the use of public transport, walking and cycling and managing demand for the private car that would make a significant contribution to decarbonisation and reduced emissions. We support the electrification of the National Rail system that would further these objectives.

6. Innovation and technological reform within transport

There has already been innovation driven by the pandemic. In particular there is now better realtime and near realtime information about busy stations and less busy trains available on TOC websites. East Midlands Railway has launched a seat finder app to allow passengers to see how busy train services are. These developments need to be kept going in the long term so that passengers can continue to benefit from them.

Dock-less cycles have started to appear on London’s streets, E-scooters are being trialled elsewhere and may well come to London. These are supported as long as the management of where they are used and parked can be assured as this is of concern to pedestrians. In London a single operational area across borough boundaries would be preferred.

The congestion charge has been raised, albeit temporarily. Roads pricing may be a more sophisticated way of managing traffic volume.

September 2020