REF0044 Written evidence submitted by London TravelWatch Introduction London TravelWatch is the official body set up by Parliament to provide a voice for London’s travelling public including the users of all forms of public transport and its streets. We promote integrated transport policies and press for better public transport, with higher standards of quality, performance and accessibility. We liaise with transport operators, providers, regulators and local authorities. Our aim in all that we do is for a better travel experience for all those living, working or visiting London and its surrounding region. London is both unique and critically important to the UK, with 70% of passenger rail journeys starting, finishing or passing through London just one example of why having a good public transport system in London matters to the whole of the UK. Key points This pandemic has shown that London’s transport network needs to be more responsive to changing situations. It needs to be able to reallocate resources to the core areas, where the need is greatest. This may mean refocusing investment into outer London and orbital journeys rather than travel into the centre. By the end of 2021/22 TfL are forecasting 80% of usual demand but it is too soon to know how realistic this forecast is. Therefore the financial model for funding Transport in London must be more resilient and less reliant on fares revenue. There is a real risk that private car use will continue to rise and contribute to the dual problems of congestion and rising emissions. It is essential that potential solutions and decisions around road-space allocation promote active travel, but importantly include public transport, such as the prioritisation of the bus on London’s roads, as a key feature alongside walking and cycling. The Inquiry London TravelWatch welcomes the House of Commons Transport Select Committee’s inquiry. 1. The use of public transport and the way that people choose to travel, both locally and for longer domestic journeys Predicting the near future, let alone the long term implications of the pandemic, on the way people travel is difficult. However, there is good data for how Londoners travelled pre-pandemic (TfL’s London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS)1) and surveys 1 London Travel Demand Survey, TfL https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/planning-for- the-future/consultations-and-surveys REF0044 tracking sentiment and reported travel (Transport Focus weekly tracker poll2). The DfT has published the statistics of transport use since the start of the pandemic3. London TravelWatch has access to Network Rail’s major stations footfall survey. The Transport Technology Forum publishes Traffic counts (motor vehicles and bicycles) 4 collated from local authority counters. TfL has a comprehensive quarterly cycle count5 dating back to 2014. TfL’s LTDS is a good statistic and reports mode shares for London residents. Although this is only a partial picture because long distance commuting from beyond the London boundary by non-London residents is not reported, it nevertheless indicates the orders of magnitude of the different modes. The charts below are derived from the LTDS data. It is also worthy of note that this survey has highlighted that trip making (trips per person) has been declining for a number of years. 2 Transport Focus Data hub https://transportfocusdatahub.org.uk/manager/Storyboard/ 3 Transport Focus Data hub 4 Transport Technology Forum, https://www.ttf.uk.net 5 TfL cycle counts, https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/travel-in-london-reports REF0044 Tr an sp ort Fo cu s’ we ekl y tra ck er pol l is a nat ion al poll of 2,000 people and can be split by region, so London results are available, which give some indication of differences between the capital and the UK as a whole. Throughout the pandemic London TravelWatch has been considering the impacts on London’s transport users. The major drivers for change include the following but of course at this stage it is difficult to predict the scale of the impact of each. Working from home We know this is a short term change, but survey results suggest there is likely to be a longer term impact. Throughout the pandemic Londoners have consistently said that they intend to work at home more often in the future. More Londoners say this than people in other parts of the country, and that figure has been rising. It is now 69%6. Furlough and unemployment Both furlough and unemployment have meant less travel demand. These factors may be with us for a good while. Population change There are newspaper reports7 of homeowners making life changing decisions to move out of the city, though these people may be replaced by those that want to move in. Underlying population growth will play its part. 6 Transport Focus Tracker Survey, 18 September 2020 7 https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/leaving-london-after-lockdown-righmove-home- buying-a138196.html REF0044 Staying local People are not commuting into the centre, many are staying local, potentially spending more time in their local streets and public spaces. Fear of public transport The biggest short term determinant of people’s unwillingness to travel stems from the fear of transmission of the virus in the closed confines of public transport vehicles, along with industry and government messaging. That said, it has been reported that weekend and leisure travel has held up better and is returning, for example many people have travelled to the seaside on the train.8 The messaging and the confidence of the rail industry that its services are safe is growing, although messaging is not yet definitive enough to convince passengers. Fares and the cost of travel The absolute and relative cost of travel is important to personal budgets and the finances of the transport industry, but it also has an influence on travel behaviour and modal choice. If public transport fares rise relative to private car then it will be used less. An example of this would be the proposed removal of free bus travel for under 18s in London (Zipcard), which although intended to encourage walking and cycling will also make public transport less price competitive compared to the use of the private car by families. Online shopping Online shopping has become more popular during the pandemic. Shopping is a significant journey purpose and so its decline will continue to affect travel demand. Additionally, light van traffic is a growing proportion of road9 traffic Public Transport Demand If public transport demand at peak hours does not recover to its pre-Covid peak, then demand will be more evenly spread through the day. To meet this change services will need to become more consistent across the day and week. In addition, with a dispersal where people live, improving connectivity and transport interchange will become much more important. These changes will mean a reform of fares and better promotion of services. It is uncertain whether people will work and visit in central London in numbers anything like before. This may well affect rents, businesses and employment, and will have an effect on the provision of transport. Public transport will need to meet the needs of transport users as they change and a more flexible and responsive approach to planning services will be key. 8 Great Western Railway, https://www.gwr.com/ 9DfT published transport use during coronavirus: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use- during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic?utm_source=7eccbfbd-64c0-4d48-adeb- 993e7c7c5355&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=daily REF0044 Long term implications All of the above factors and more will lead to a change in travel demand both in terms of volume and geographically. The capacity of public transport networks and the roads to respond to these changes will partly shape how we live and travel in the future. The following is commentary on the possible impacts. Walking has the highest modal share. If more journeys become more local, walking is likely to increase locally, but less so as part of a linked trip, say to the station. It is a space efficient10 and active mode with local implications for changes to accommodate more walking. Private car use has been encouraged as a way of safely travelling, but it is not space efficient and its growth will have many negative impacts on other users of the road, particularly bus passengers if journey times become further extended, but also on cyclists and pedestrians in terms of safety (perceived and real). This is an issue London has struggled with and will continue to do so. There is a consensus amongst policy makers that roads pricing would be the mechanism to tackle this issue, but to date there has been no political consensus on this. Bus services have been the most popular public transport mode in London during the pandemic. Use is back up to 57% of pre-pandemic levels. Fear of using the underground, the demographic of bus users and their occupations, and the local nature of bus services may have led to this. In the longer term bus services will respond to demand quickly. This may well mean a reduction of services in the centre and more services in outer London. Express and orbital services are proposed for consideration though there are cost and operational implications. The response of TfL and its bus operators to the return to school has been reasonably successful with little deterioration in satisfaction seen in the Transport Focus tracker poll11. Bus services have the most potential of all the public transport networks, but they must be given priority on London’s streets if they are to do this.