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Benefit & Cost Analysis for Proposed Revisions to Effluent Guidelines For United States Office of Water EPA-821-R-19-011 Environmental Protection Washington, DC 20460 November 1, 2019 Agency Benefit and Cost Analysis for Proposed Revisions to the Effluent Limitations Guidelines and Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source Category Benefit and Cost Analysis for Proposed Revisions to the Effluent Limitations Guidelines and Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source Category EPA-821-R-19-011 November 2019 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Water (4303T) Engineering and Analysis Division 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20460 BCA for Proposed Revisions to the Steam Electric Power Generating ELGs Acknowledgements and Disclaimer This report was prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Neither the United States Government nor any of its employees, contractors, subcontractors, or their employees make any warrant, expressed or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any third party’s use of or the results of such use of any information, apparatus, product, or process discussed in this report, or represents that its use by such party would not infringe on privately owned rights. BCA for Proposed Revisions to the Steam Electric Power Generating ELGs Table of Contents Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................................ i List of Figures .................................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................... xi Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Steam Electric Power Plants .................................................................................................................. 1-2 1.2 Baseline and Regulatory Options Analyzed .......................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 Analytic Framework .............................................................................................................................. 1-4 1.3.1 Constant Prices ............................................................................................................................ 1-5 1.3.2 Discount Rate and Year .............................................................................................................. 1-5 1.3.3 Period of Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 1-5 1.3.4 Annualization of future costs and benefits .................................................................................. 1-6 1.3.5 Direction of Environmental Changes and Benefits ..................................................................... 1-6 1.3.6 Population and Income Growth .................................................................................................. 1-7 1.4 Organization of the Benefit and Cost Analysis Report ......................................................................... 1-7 2 Benefits Overview ................................................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Human Health Impacts Associated with Changes in Surface Water Quality ........................................ 2-4 2.1.1 Drinking Water ........................................................................................................................... 2-4 2.1.2 Fish Consumption ....................................................................................................................... 2-6 2.1.3 Complementary Measure of Human Health Impacts .................................................................. 2-7 2.2 Ecological Impacts Associated with Changes in Surface Water Quality .............................................. 2-7 2.2.1 Changes in Surface Water Quality .............................................................................................. 2-8 2.2.2 Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Species ........................................................................ 2-9 2.2.3 Changes in Sediment Contamination .......................................................................................... 2-9 2.3 Economic Productivity ........................................................................................................................ 2-10 2.3.1 Marketability of Coal Ash for Beneficial Use .......................................................................... 2-10 2.3.2 Water Supply and Use ............................................................................................................... 2-11 2.3.3 Sedimentation Changes in Navigational Waterways ................................................................ 2-12 2.3.4 Commercial Fisheries ............................................................................................................... 2-13 2.3.5 Tourism ..................................................................................................................................... 2-13 2.3.6 Property Values ......................................................................................................................... 2-13 2.4 Changes in Air Pollution ..................................................................................................................... 2-14 EPA-821-R-19-011 i BCA for Proposed Revisions to the Steam Electric Power Generating ELGs Table of Contents 2.5 Reduced Water Withdrawals ............................................................................................................... 2-16 2.6 Summary of Benefits Categories ......................................................................................................... 2-16 3 Water Quality Effects of Regulatory Options ................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Waters Affected by Steam Electric Power Plant Discharges ................................................................ 3-1 3.2 Changes in Pollutant Loadings .............................................................................................................. 3-2 3.2.1 Timing of ELG Implementation .................................................................................................. 3-2 3.2.2 Results ......................................................................................................................................... 3-5 3.3 Water Quality Downstream from Steam Electric Power Plants ............................................................ 3-7 3.4 Overall Water Quality Changes ............................................................................................................. 3-8 3.4.1 WQI Data Sources ...................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.4.2 WQI Calculation ....................................................................................................................... 3-10 3.4.3 Baseline WQI ............................................................................................................................ 3-10 3.4.4 Estimated Changes in Water Quality (∆WQI) from the Regulatory Options ........................... 3-11 3.5 Limitations and Uncertainty ................................................................................................................ 3-12 4 Human Health Benefits from Changes in Pollutant Exposure via Drinking Water Pathways .... 4-1 4.1 Background............................................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Overview of the Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.3 Analysis Steps ....................................................................................................................................... 4-5 4.3.1 Step 1: Modeling Bromide Concentrations in Surface Water ..................................................... 4-5 4.3.2 Step 2: Modeling Changes in Trihalomethanes in Treated Water Supplies ................................ 4-5 4.3.3 Step 3: Quantifying Population Exposure and Health Effects .................................................. 4-11 4.3.4 Step 4: Quantifying the Monetary Value of Benefits ................................................................ 4-16 4.4 Results of Analysis of Human Health Benefits from Estimated Changes in Bromide Discharges Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 4-16 4.5 Additional Measures of Human Health Effects from Exposure to Steam Electric Pollutants via Drinking Water Pathway ....................................................................................................................
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