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Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 11-13-2015 The Role of Iran Policy the Saudi-American Rift Christopher Parmly Florida International University, [email protected] DOI: 10.25148/etd.FIDC000198 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons, International Relations Commons, Military and Veterans Studies Commons, Near and Middle Eastern Studies Commons, and the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons Recommended Citation Parmly, Christopher, "The Role of Iran Policy the Saudi-American Rift" (2015). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 2301. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2301 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida THE ROLE OF IRAN POLICY IN THE SAUDI-AMERICAN RIFT. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS in INTERNATIONAL STUDIES by Christopher Parmly 2015 To: Dean John Stack Green School of International and Public Affairs This thesis, written by Christopher Parmly, and entitled The Role of Iran Policy in the Saudi-American Rift, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this thesis and recommend that it be approved. _______________________________________ Naisy Sarduy _______________________________________ Iqbal Akhtar _______________________________________ Felix Martin, Major Professor Date of Defense: November 13, 2015. The thesis of Christopher Parmly is approved. ______________________________________ Dean John Stack School of International and Public Affairs _______________________________________ Dean Lakshmi N. Reddi University Graduate School Florida International University, 2015 ii ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS THE ROLE OF IRAN POLICY IN THE SAUDI-AMERICAN RIFT by Christopher Parmly Florida International University, 2015 Miami, Florida Professor Felix Martin, Major Professor This thesis explores what effect Saudi and American policy differences towards Iran have had on their bilateral relations. It is based on the recent thaw in Iran-U.S. relations, and the critical reaction of the Saudi government towards this policy. The question has two components – first, how severe the current Saudi-American rift is, and second, to what extent it can be traced to their differences over Iran. The topic will be addressed through process-tracing methods. The thesis concludes that there is indeed a rift in Saudi-U.S. relations marked by an increasingly assertive and independent Saudi foreign policy, though its alliance with America will likely endure. It also concludes that while the thaw in relations between Iran and the U.S. on the nuclear issue was not ultimately the major factor, more general differences over Iran are one of the most significant reasons for the Saudi-U.S. rift. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE ONE – INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................1 Premise of Thesis .....................................................................................................1 Significance of the Research Project ......................................................................3 Research Question and Methodology .....................................................................5 Structure and Chapter Description ...........................................................................7 Discussion of Data Sources ..................................................................................10 TWO – HISTORICAL BACKGROUND .........................................................................19 Introduction ............................................................................................................19 Saudi Arabia – Foundation and Ideology .............................................................19 The Saudi – U.S. Relationship: Origins, Foundations, and Early Years ..............23 Iran–U.S. Relationship, and Consequences for Saudi Arabia ..............................30 The Deepening of the Saudi–U.S. Relationship: 1979 and Aftermath ..................37 Previous Major Crises in Saudi–U.S. Relations ...................................................44 Conclusion .............................................................................................................51 THREE – THE EXTENT OF THE SAUDI-AMERICAN RIFT ......................................54 Introduction ............................................................................................................54 Saudi-American Disagreements in the 21st century – Rhetoric ...........................55 Saudi-American Disagreements in the 21st Century – Policy. ............................61 The Saudi Role in the Middle Eastern Region – A Newfound Assertiveness .......69 The Saudi-American Rift – The American Perspective ........................................77 The Saudi-American Relationship – What Has Not Changed ...............................84 Conclusion ............................................................................................................88 FOUR – IRAN AND THE SAUDI-AMERICAN RIFT ...................................................92 Introduction ............................................................................................................92 Saudi-American and Iranian-American Relations, Side By Side. .......................92 Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S. – The Nuclear Crisis and Negotiation ............102 Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S. – Other Major Issues ........................................108 Saudi Arabia and the U.S. – Other Major Issues ................................................115 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................119 FIVE – THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES ...................................................................124 Introduction .........................................................................................................124 Alliance Restraint ................................................................................................124 Alliance Formation ..............................................................................................134 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................142 iv SIX – CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................145 Summary ..............................................................................................................145 The Saudi-American Rift .....................................................................................150 The Role of Iran ...................................................................................................154 LIST OF REFERENCES .................................................................................................157 v CHAPTER ONE – INTRODUCTION Premise of Thesis. The last five to six years have witnessed a remarkable thaw in relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The earliest signs of this came during the 2008 presidential campaign, when then-candidate Barack Obama first expressed a willingness to speak to Iran without preconditions, possibly offering economic inducements and a promise to stop seeking regime change in Iran, if Iran in turn were willing to make similar concessions on issues of importance to the United States. In the early years of the Obama presidency, not much progress was made along these lines, and American sanctions on Iran actually increased. However, these electoral musings were given a new substance in late 2013, when it was revealed that the American and Iranian governments had been negotiating for months in the hopes of reaching a final resolution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear program, satisfying both the American desire to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon, and the Iranian desire for an end to the sanctions regime. Despite serious criticism in both nations and from various allies, the negotiation process continued since then, finally culminating on July 14th, 2015 with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran, the United States, and the other major powers with sanctions on Iran (Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China), in which Iran agreed to severe restrictions on and inspections of its nuclear energy program in exchange for a loosening of the sanctions regime. In Saudi Arabia, however, official policy during the same time period has run in the opposite direction. As a regional rival of Iran, Saudi Arabia has long been concerned 1 about the possibility of an Iranian nuclear bomb. However, those concerns have often been expressed in very moderate terms; as a Rand Corporation report from 2009 summarized it, Saudi Arabia sought to manage the nuclear threat “through accommodation rather than confrontation,” publicly opposing a possible American military action, and calling for turning the region into a WMD-free zone.1 This policy has been dramatically altered since then: in 2009, the Saudi

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