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Permanent Alliance Permanent Alliance: A Case Study on the Impact of US-Israeli Relations on US-Iranian Relations By Katharine Chance Senior Honors Thesis Submitted to the Department of Political Science University of California, San Diego 2019-2020 Abstract This thesis analyzes the development of a permanent alliance and its impact on other relationships in the system. Though an alliance serves to balance against a mutual security threat, the maintenance of an alliance has the potential to destabilize the system. The long-term commitment and continued joint strategic interests of two states will evolve into a permanent alliance. Despite the perceived benefits of the alliance, the smaller state will continuously entangle the dominant state in heightened levels of commitment against its own regional security threats until those threats become permanent adversaries of the dominant state. This paper illustrates these developments through U.S-Israeli relations and its impact on U.S.-Iranians relations. This case can be expanded to other permanent alliances in the Middle East and beyond to better understand potential obstacles to regional stability. 2 Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………...…….....2 1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………..4 2 Theory…………………………………………………………………….……...7 2.1 Balance of Power………………………………………...…....………………..7 2.2 Defining an Alliance……………………………………………..……………..8 2.3 Failure of the Balance of Power…………………………………...…...……..11 2.4 Commitments in an Alliance…………………………………………………..15 2.5 Heightened Commitment and Small State Influence……………………...…..17 2.6 Perpetual Commitment Against an Ally’s Adversary…………………..……..22 2.7. Permanent Adversary from a Permanent Alliance…………………..……….24 3 Middle Eastern System………………………………………………………..27 3.1 Defining the Middle Eastern System…………………………………..….…..27 3.2 Background on the Middle Eastern System………………………..………….29 4 U.S. Foreign Policy…………………………………………………………….38 5 The United States and Israel…………………………………………………..61 5.1 Alliance Formation ……………………………………………………61 5.2. Commitments to the Alliance…………………………………………..63 5.3 Heightened Commitment and Small State Influence…………………...71 5.4 The Rebalance and Increased Small State Influence………………..…76 5.5 High Small State Influence and Firming against Iran………………....88 5.6 The Possible Change under Obama……………………………………96 5.7 Solidified Adversary under Trump …………………………………… 98 6 The United States and Iran………………………………..…………………101 6.1 Iranian Relations………………………………………...……………101 6.2 Background on Iran………………………………………..…………102 6.3 Alliance Formation and Commitment……………………………...…105 6.4 The Iranian Revolution…………………………………..……………113 6.5 Attempts to Restore Relations…………………………..….…………117 6.6 Uncertainty and Increasing Threat to Israel………………………….125 6.7 Permanent Adversary…………………………………………………127 7 Conclusion……………………………………………………………….……137 9.1 Future Study………………………………………………..…………137 9.2 Implications…………………………………………..………..…...…138 Bibliography……………………………………………………………….……140 3 1 Introduction The United States prided itself on “friendship with all nations—entangling alliances with none.”1 In line with Washington’s Farewell Address of 1796, U.S. policymakers sought to “steer clear of permanent alliance, with any part of the world.”2 In this warning to future policymakers, he did not disavow the formation of alliances, but rather expressed a hesitation towards any long- standing ties to any particular nation. Through long-standing ties, a nation was prevented from being truly free and was, “in some degree a slave.” Looking back at the last two centuries of U.S. foreign policy, has the U.S. steered clear of permanent alliances? As the U.S. sought a greater role in the international system, alliances produced influence over smaller states and cooperation among great powers. Through a growing system of alliances, the U.S. expanded its economic capabilities and produced stability within its sphere of influence. Out of two World Wars and into the Cold War, the U.S. dove into strategic alliances throughout the developing world and tightened its existing partnerships. In a competition for alliances, the U.S. committed to protect the interests of smaller states in an effort to combat the Soviet threat. As the Soviet Union diminished, new threats emerged that threatened the United States’ system of alliances. In the Middle East, the United States committed to a War on Terror and deepened its commitments to its regional allies. Today, the United States maintains alliances throughout the world. These alliances are permanent as long as the interests remain the same. 1 Jefferson, Thomas. “First Inaugural Address, Vol. 33: 17 February to 30 April 1801.” The Papers of Thomas Jefferson Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Pub. 2006. P. 148-152. 2 Hamilton, Alexander. “Draft Fragment of George Washington’s Farewell Address, c. August 1796.” Manuscripts and Archives Division, The New York Public Library. Astor, Lenox and Tilden Foundations. 4 This thesis seeks to analyze the development of permanent alliances. Alliances form to balance power in system.3 Though the balance of power produces stability in the system, the maintenance of alliances causes the balance of power to fail.4 Dominant states in the system will commit to smaller states in the system to preserve the alliances.5 This commitment comes in the form of a “payoff” through an assessment of joint strategic interests. The long-term commitment will continue as long as the joint strategic interests remain.6 This evolves the alliance into a “permanent” alliance.7 Permanent alliances will impact other states in the system. The smaller state will leverage the dominant state to heighten its commitment.8 Perceiving high benefits from the alliance, the dominant state becomes entangled in backing up the small state in its foreign policy objectives. The dominant state will commit against other states in the system that are security threats to the smaller state.9 The perpetual commitment against the other state produces permanent adversaries in the system. The state will remain a permanent adversary as long as it is identified as a security threat to the smaller state and as long as the permanent alliance remains. 3 Levy, Jack S. “Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions and Research Design.” Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate. Eds. John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman. Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Pub. 2003; Dingman, Roger V. “Theories of, and Approaches to, Alliance Politics.” Diplomacy: New Approaches in Theory, History, and Policy. New York. Pub. 1979; Modelski, George. “The Study of Alliances: A Review.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 7, no. 4. Pub. 1963; Friedman, Julian R. Alliance in International Politics. Boston. Pub. 1970; Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics Among Nations. New York: Alfred A. Knopf. Pub. 1948; Morgenthau, Hans J. “Alliances in Theory and Practice.” Alliance Policy in the Cold War. Baltimore, MD. Pub. 1959; Gulick, Edward V. Europe’s Classical Balance of Power. New York: Norton. Pub. 1955; Kaplan, Morton A. Systems and Process in International Politics. New York: John Wiley. Pub. 1957. 4 Snyder, Glenn H. “The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics.” World Politics. Vol. 36, no. 4. Pub. 1984. P 467- 468. JSTOR. www.jstor.org/stable/2010183. 5 Gaddis, John Lewis. “The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System.” International Security, vol. 10, no. 4. Pub. 1986. P 132. JSTOR. www.jstor.org/stable/2538951. 6 Snyder, Glenn H. “The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics.” World Politics. Vol. 36, no. 4. Pub. 1984. P 463. JSTOR. www.jstor.org/stable/2010183. 7 The term “permanent alliance” will be defined in the Theory section. 8 Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliance. Ithica, NY: Cornell University Press. Pub. 1987. P. 272. 9 Snyder, Glenn H. “The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics.” World Politics. Vol. 36, no. 4. Pub. 1984. P 467. JSTOR. www.jstor.org/stable/2010183. 5 This development is illustrated through the case of the United States relationship with Israel. By analyzing U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, this paper draws out U.S. objectives and interests in the region. This is followed by an analysis of U.S.-Israeli relations to examine the development of the permanent alliance and the increase in small state influence. To draw on the impact of the permanent alliance on other relationship in the system, this study analyzes the U.S-Iranian relationship from under the Shah until today. Embedded in both studies of U.S. relations is the relationship between Israel and Iran. As the Iranian regime became more hostile towards Israel and other regional allies, the U.S. stepped down attempts to normalize relations. By examining the change in relations, this thesis aims to demonstrate the impact of the U.S.- Israeli alliance on U.S.-Iranian relations. 6 2 Theory 2.1 Balance of Power Alliance literature derives from the foundational assumption that “alliances are created to provide security against threats.”10 Implicit to the assumption is that alliances are created to balance power in a system. Morgenthau argues that alliances are “a necessary function of the balance of power operating in a multiple state system.”11 Guided by this framework, scholars analyze alliances within the context of the balance of power theory.12 The balance of power is the “actual state of affairs in which power is distributed among several nations with approximate equality.” 13 At the center of this theory is the idea that “power alone can limit power.”14 This “balance” forms from
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