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Construction & Building Materials Sector Research | China Construction & Building Materials THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON September 7, 2012 September 7, 2012 Construction & Building Materials Another railway construction boom could emerge in China Event: Analysts Qiu Bo This week, China approved 30 urban railway transit projects by a number of local +86 755 82133390 [email protected] governments, intercity railway plans by Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia, feasibility study S0980510120021 reports on 13 subway lines in several cities, including Chengdu, Tianjin, Changchun, etc, Liu Ping +86 755 82130678 the No.1 subway line franchise project in Hangzhou and the second Gantang-Southern [email protected] Weiwu railway line project. S0980512030001 Comment: Sales Contact Another massive railway transit construction boom may occur as the number of Dan Weil Global Head of Institutional Sales and Trading projects approved this time hit a three-year high. Managing Director +852 2248 3588 [email protected] The construction of a subway project usually lasts four years. Therefore, the Chris Berney construction of projects in seven cities approved in 2009 is drawing to an end, and it Managing Director is necessary to launch a new batch of projects to improve urban construction. On the +852 2248 3568 [email protected] other hand, we believe the NDRC’s latest move is also an important measure the government takes to stabilise economic growth. Roger Chiman Managing Director +852 2248 3598 [email protected] The investment in the 30 railway transit projects totals RMB427.8 billion and most of these projects are scheduled to be completed over 2012-15. In terms of investment Andrew Collier Director amount, Guangzhou tops all other cities, as the NDRC approved the Guangzhou +852 2248 3528 [email protected] government to construct seven subway lines with anticipated investment amount of RMB124.1 billion. Three subway lines will be constructed in Shenyang, with Joe Chan Director anticipated investment amount of over RMB60 billion. +852 2248 3578 [email protected] Developers must provide 40% of initial capital (non-debt capital) for these projects, Cancy Kong versus 25% for the projects approved before, and most of the initial capital will be Vice President +852 2248 3538 financed by local government revenue. [email protected] Gary Wong Associate The NDRC has approved multiple ways to finance the projects besides fiscal support +852 2248 3548 [email protected] from local governments. We believe as local governments are suffering from a capital crunch, more projects will be financed through other channels in the future. Ma Ning Associate +852 2248 3536 [email protected] Approval of railway transit construction projects underscores the government’s intention to promote infrastructure investment amid the continuing economic slowdown. Since 2H 2011, China’s infrastructure investment kept slowing down, with investment in railway, highway and urban constructions suffering y-o-y decline in 1H 2012. Given the worrisome economic condition, we believe the government’s move to accelerate For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1 Bespoke translation by Guosen Securities (HK) strictly for use by its clients only. Construction & Building Materials September 7, 2012 | China THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON September 7, 2012 approvals for railway transit projects signals it will promote infrastructure investment. As such, we believe infrastructure investment will pick up in 2H 2012. We suggest paying attention to central government-owned construction companies with attractive valuations. Two types of companies will benefit from the construction boom of urban railway projects. First, infrastructure-listed companies, including China Railway Group (601390.CH), China Railway Construction (601186.CH), China Railway Erju (600528.CH), China State Construction Engineering (601668.CH), Shanghai Tunnel Engineering (600820.CH), Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering (002060.CH) and Hongrun Construction Group (002062.CH) will be major beneficiaries. Second, listed decoration companies, including Zhejiang Yasha Decoration (002375.CH) and SZ Grandland Decoration (002482.CH) are also set to benefit. ased on the optimistic outlook for infrastructure investment, we suggest investors to pay special attention to China State Construction Engineering (6016 CH and Sinoh dro roup 01 .CH), given their strong fundamentals and significant valuation advantages. Meanwhile, China Railway Group (601390.CH), China Railway Construction (601186.CH), and China Railway Erju(600528.CH) could also bring attractive trading opportunities. Guosen Securities (HK) 2 Bespoke translation by Guosen Securities (HK) strictly for use by its clients only Construction & Building Materials September 7, 2012 | China THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON September 7, 2012 Exhibit 1: Projects and schemes approved by the NDRC Length No. of Total investment Construction amount (RMB1 Note (Kilometre) stations billion) time period Changzhou No.1 Subway Line, first phase 34.02 28 21.33 2011～2016 Initial capital (non-debt capital) amounts to RMB13.46 billion, making up 40% of total investment amount. No.2 Subway Line, first phase 19.86 13 12.32 2014～2018 The Changzhou municipal government will finance the initial capital with government revenue. The remaining investment will be financed via other channels, e.g. bank loans. Xiamen No.1 Subway Line, first phase 31.5 23 20.39 2011～2016 Initial capital makes up 40% of total investment. The Xiamen municipal government will finance the initial No.2 Subway Line, first phase 25.2 19 17.62 2013～2018 capital with government revenue. The remaining ～ investment will be financed via other channels, e.g. No.3 Subway Line, first phase 18.6 16 12.36 2015 2020 bank loans. Shenyang No.4 Subway Line, first phase 32 23 16.63 2012～2016 Initial capital amounts to RMB18.311 billion, making up 30% of total investment. The Shenyang municipal No.10 Subway Line, first phase 50 33 25.21 2012～2017 government will finance the initial capital with ～ government revenue. The remaining investment will No.9Subway Line, first phase 36 29 19.20 2013 2018 be financed via other channels, e.g. bank loans. Harbin No.1 Subway Line, third phase 8 4.90 2012～2016 Initial capital amounts to RMB22.93 billion, making up 40.8% of total investment. The Harbin municipal No.2 Subway Line, first phase 26.5 16.49 2013～2018 government will finance the initial capital with ～ government revenue. The remaining investment will No.3 Subway Line 37.6 24.44 2012 2018 be financed via other channels, e.g. bank loans. Guangzhou No.8 Subway Line 15 12 11.08 2012-2015 Initial capital amounts to RMB55.845 billion, making up 45% of the total investment of RMB124.1 billion. No.13 Subway Line, first phase 28.3 11 18.24 2012-2016 The Guangzhou municipal government will finance the initial capital with government revenue. The No.14 Subway Line, first phase 51.2 13 18.91 2013-2017 remaining investment will be financed via other No.21 Subway Line, first phase 58.7 14 29.13 2013-2017 channels, e.g. bank loans. No.4 Subway Line, southern 11.7 5 5.33 2013-2017 section extension project No. 11 Subway Line 42.4 32 33.61 2014-2018 No. 14 Subway Line 21.6 5 7.80 TBD Shanghai No. 11 Subway Line, Disney 9.15 4.37 2012～2015 The adjusted length of subway lines in Shanghai Section reaches 250.55 kilometres, and total investment amount is expected to amount to RMB158.69 billion. No.8 Subway Line, third phase 6.6 2.24 2012～2015 Total investment in the newly added projects is ～ expected to reach RMB16.791 billion, RMB7.1 billion No.10 Subway Line, second 10 5.94 2012 2015 out of which will be initial capital. Shanghai municipal phase and district governments will finance the initial capital No.2 Subway Line, western 2 1.35 2012～2015 with government revenue. The remaining investment section extension project will be financed via other channels, e.g. bank loans. No.3 and No.4 Subway Lines, 2.6 2.89 2012～2015 revamp of branch lines Lanzhou No.1 Subway Line, first phase 26.6 20 17.16 2011～2016 Initial capital amounts to RMB6.3 billion, making up 27.48% of the total investment of RMB22.922 billion. No.2 Subway Line, first phase 9.4 8 5.76 2015～2020 Lanzhou municipal and district governments will finance the initial capital with government revenue. The remaining investment will be financed via other channels, e.g. bank loans. Taiyuan No.1 Subway Line, first phase 24.1 21 15.79 2014～2018 Initial capital amounts to RMB10.826 billion, making up 35% of the total investment of RMB30.929 billion. No.2 Subway Line, first phase 25.1 22 15.14 2012～2016 The Taiyuan municipal government will finance the initial capital with government revenue. Shijiazhuang No.1 Subway Line, first phase 23.9 21 16.70 2012～2016 No.2 Subway Line, first phase 16.2 17 11.52 2015～2020 No.3 Subway Line, first phase 19.5 15 13.97 2013～2018 Guosen Securities (HK) 3 Bespoke translation by Guosen Securities (HK) strictly for use by its clients only Construction & Building Materials September 7, 2012 | China THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON September 7, 2012 Inter-city railway network in coastal areas of Jiangsu Province Nanjing-Gaochun Line, Nanjing 35 0.00 2012-2015 These projects will mainly be financed by local South Station-Lukou Airport governments.
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