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Tokyo Seimitsu (7729) 7 November 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Telecommunications Equipment (Semiconductor Equipment (Japan)) Tokyo Seimitsu (7729) Rating NEUTRAL Price (04 Nov 16, ¥) 2,763 INITIATION Target Price (¥) 2,740 Chg to TP (%) -0.8 Market cap (¥ bn) 114.49 (US$ 1.11) SPE solid but machine tools sales weak Enterprise value (¥ bn) 82.63 Number of shares (mn) 41.44 ■ Initiating coverage: We initiate coverage of Tokyo Seimitsu with a ¥2,740 target Free float (%) 75.0 price (potential return −0.8%) and NEUTRAL rating. The company holds around 52-week price range 2,904–1,972 60% of the global market for probers used for examining the electrical *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each characteristics of semiconductors. Its share price has been firm, buoyed by analyst's or each team's respective sector. ¹Target price is for 12 months. expected demand growth for probers, due mainly to investment in DRAM process Research Analysts migration at the SPE segment, which generates 55% of OP. We think SPE Yoshiyasu Takemura demand will remain firm, especially for memory, but that machine tool orders will 81 3 4550 7358 likely be low at the metrology business. We expect FY3/17 results to beat [email protected] guidance but fall slightly behind the I/B/E/S consensus. The stock is fairly valued Hideyuki Maekawa in our view. 81 3 4550 9723 ■ Investment case: We forecast FY3/17 OP of ¥12.5bn (−5% YoY, guidance [email protected] ¥11.5bn), with ¥12.6bn in FY3/18 and ¥14.5bn in FY3/19. We think FY3/17 OP will slightly miss the I/B/E/S consensus but beat guidance. We find the stock to be fairly valued. At the SPE segment, we think demand growth arising from investment in memory, which should account for around 40% of FY3/17 sales, will drive sales growth, but that profits will decline due to the stronger yen and higher R&D costs. We believe profits will return to growth from FY3/18, due to higher volume of semiconductor shipments and capex. At the metrology business, we expect profits to continue their fall through FY3/18 due to sluggish machine tool orders stemming from the risk of a slowdown in automotive capex. ■ Catalysts/risks: Upside catalysts: (1) fresh demand for probers due to growth in production of LP DDR4 DRAM, (2) fresh demand arising from investment related to fan-out wafer-level packaging, and (3) machine tool orders rebounding to YoY growth. Downside risks: (1) lower capex due to deterioration in semiconductor prices and (2) loss of share to OSATs. ■ Valuation: We base our target price on a P/B of 1.33x applied to our FY3/17E BPS of ¥2,058. The P/B valuation is equal to the stock’s average TOPIX-relative P/B of 1.04x since the I/B/E/S consensus shifted from red ink to profits on 20 May 2010 multiplied by the current TOPIX P/B of 1.28x. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Pr ice (LH S) Reb ased Rel (RH S) Year 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E Sales (¥ bn) 70.3 69.5 69.6 73.7 3 ,5 0 0 1 3 0 Operating profit (¥ bn) 13.2 12.5 12.6 14.5 Recurring profit (¥ bn) 13.2 12.4 12.5 14.4 2 ,5 0 0 1 0 5 Net income (¥ bn) 9.7 9.2 9.3 10.6 EPS (¥) 234.6 223.4 224.7 257.2 IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 223.1 245.6 261.9 1 ,5 0 0 8 0 EPS growth (%) 7.6 (4.8) 0.6 14.4 Jan - 1 5 Ju l- 1 5 Jan - 1 6 Ju l- 1 6 P/E (x) 9.4 12.4 12.3 10.7 The price relative chart measures performance against the Dividend yield (%) 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8 TOPIX which closed at 1,347.04 on 04-Nov-2016 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 5.4 5.1 4.3 On 04-Nov-2016 the spot exchange rate was P/B (x) 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 ¥103.12/US$1 ROE(%) 12.7 11.3 10.5 11.2 Performance 1M 3M 12M Net debt/equity (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Absolute (%) -0.8 18.9 0.4 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Relative (%) -0.7 13.7 13.7 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 7 November 2016 Tokyo Seimitsu (7729) Price (04 Nov 2016): ¥2763.0 (upside: -0.83%); Rating: NEUTRAL; Target Price: ¥2,740; Analyst: Yoshiyasu Takemura Income statement (¥ bn) 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E Key ratios 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E Sales 70.3 69.5 69.6 73.7 Growth (%) EBITDA 15.5 15.2 15.3 17.2 Sales 5.8 (1.1) 0.2 5.8 Operating profit 13.2 12.5 12.6 14.5 Operating profit 9.1 (5.4) 0.6 14.9 Recurring profit 13.2 12.4 12.5 14.4 EPS 7.6 (4.8) 0.6 14.4 Extraordinary gain & loss 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Margins (%) Profit before tax 13.2 12.4 12.5 14.4 Gross margin 40.0 41.0 41.0 41.5 Net income 9.7 9.2 9.3 10.6 EBITDA margin 22.1 21.9 22.0 23.3 Cash flow (¥ bn) 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E OP margin 18.8 18.0 18.1 19.6 Operating cash flow 7.2 13.9 12.0 11.3 DuPont analysis Depreciation & Amortization 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 ROE (%) 12.7 11.3 10.5 11.2 Financing cash flow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit margin (%) 13.8 13.3 13.4 14.4 Issuance (retirement) of stock - - - - Sales/Assets 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Dividends paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Assets/Equity 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Investing cash flow (3.8) (4.8) (4.6) (4.6) Credit ratios (%) Capex (3.8) (4.8) (4.6) (4.6) Equity ratio 77.3 79.0 80.2 80.9 Free cash flow 3.4 9.1 7.4 6.7 Net D/E ratio Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net change in cash 3.4 9.1 7.4 6.7 Per share data (¥) Number of shares (mn) 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4 Balance sheet (¥ bn) 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E EPS 234.6 223.4 224.7 257.2 Cash & cash equivalents 27.4 33.5 37.9 41.5 BPS 1904.2 2057.6 2214.9 2394.9 Current receivable 26.0 26.3 26.7 28.7 DPS 59.0 67.0 67.4 77.2 Inventories 16.1 16.2 16.8 18.2 Dividend payout ratio (%) 25.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 Other current assets 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Current assets 72.7 78.2 83.7 90.7 Valuation (x) 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E Property, plant & equipment 22.0 23.3 24.4 25.5 P/E 9.4 12.4 12.3 10.7 Investments - - - - P/B 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Intangibles 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA 4.2 5.4 5.1 4.3 Other non-current assets 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Dividend yield (%) 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8 Total assets 101.9 107.8 114.4 122.5 FCF yield (%) 3.7 7.9 6.5 5.8 Payables 6.1 4.4 4.4 5.1 Short term debt 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Other current liabilities 13.7 15.2 15.2 15.2 Current liabilities 21.4 21.2 21.2 21.9 Long term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other non-current liabilities 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total liabilities 22.5 22.0 22.0 22.7 Shareholders' equity 78.8 85.2 91.7 99.1 Minority interests 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Tokyo Seimitsu (7729)2 7 November 2016 Table of contents Key charts 4 Investment view 5 Initiating coverage at NEUTRAL with ¥2,740 TP .....................................................5 Earnings forecasts 7 Shareholder returns ...............................................................................................11 Earnings trends 12 SPE segment 14 (1) Probers .............................................................................................................14 (2) Dicers................................................................................................................20 (3) Polish grinders ..................................................................................................22 Metrology 26 Medium-term plan 29 Valuation 30 Risks ......................................................................................................................34 Financial position 35 Financial analysis 37 Tokyo Seimitsu (7729)3 7 November 2016 Key charts Figure 2: Japan machine-tool orders and Tokyo Figure 1: OP forecasts by segment Seimitsu’s metrology orders 20,000 14,000 15,000 12,000 5,657 10,000 10,000 5,160 5,883 5,427 5,265 Y Y P 5,995 4,407 J P 4,745 8,000 J n 5,000 2,850 4,673 o 8,802 n i l 7,339 7,323 o l 6,963 7,085 i i 5,297 l l 4,454 3,828 i m 3,463 2,832 3,720 6,000 0 900 m -2,467 -5,930 4,000 (5,000) 2,000 (10,000) 08/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 13/3 14/3 15/3 16/3 17/3 18/3 19/3 0 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q CSE CSE CSE 10/3 11/3 12/3 13/3 14/3 15/3 16/3 17/3 17/3 18/3 SPE Measurement CSE CSE Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Japan machine-tool orders and Tokyo Figure 4: Japan machine-tool orders YoY and Tokyo Seimitsu’s metrology orders Seimitsu’s metrology orders YoY 450,000 9,000 80.0% 80.0% 400,000 8,000 60.0% 60.0% 350,000 7,000 40.0% 40.0% 300,000 6,000 Y Y Y 250,000 5,000 o 20.0% 20.0% o P Y Y J n 200,000 4,000 b 0.0% 0.0% 150,000 3,000 -20.0% -20.0% 100,000 2,000 50,000 1,000 -40.0% -40.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 0 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 11/3 12/3 13/3 14/3 15/3 16/3 17/317/3 18/3 19/3 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 CSE CSE CSE 03/3 04/3 05/3 06/3 07/3 08/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 13/3 14/3 15/3 16/317/3 Japan machine order YoY Measurement order YoY (right axis) Japan machine order Measurement order (right axis) Source: Japan Machine Tools Builders' Association, Company data Source: Japan Machine Tools Builders' Association, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure
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