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Weekly Economic Indicators 11th June 2021 Statistics Department Central Bank of Sri Lanka Highlights of the Week Real Sector During the first four months of 2021, domestic tea production increased in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year owing to favourable weather conditions and healthy prices. Production of rubber also increased in response to high market prices while coconut production increased considerably due to the lagged effect of favourable weather conditions prevailed during latter part of 2020. During the period under review (05.06.2021 to 11.06.2021), crude oil prices remained considerably volatile. Prices declined mainly due to a sharp growth in US crude inventories, but towards the end of the week, prices increased with the optimism on strong economic demand after US unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since the first wave of COVID-19 in the US last year. Overall, both Brent and WTI prices increased by US dollars 0.67 per barrel during the period. Monetary Sector Weekly AWPR for the week ending 11th June 2021 increased by 1 bp to 5.64 per cent compared to the previous week. The reserve money decreased compared to the previous week mainly due to the decrease in currency in circulation and deposits held by the commercial banks with the Central Bank. The total outstanding market liquidity was a surplus of Rs. 109.996 bn by the end of this week, compared to a surplus of Rs. 104.803 bn by the end of last week. By 11th June 2021, the All Share Price Index (ASPI) increased by 0.57 per cent to 7,610.30 points and the S&P SL 20 Index increased by 0.67 per cent to 3,067.03 points, compared to the index values of last week. External Sector During the year up to 11th June 2021, the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated against the US dollar by 6.7 per cent. Given the cross currency exchange rate movements, the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated against the pound sterling by 10.1 per cent, the Indian rupee by 6.9 per cent, the Euro by 5.7 per cent and the Japanese yen by 1.0 per cent during this period. The gross official reserves were estimated at US dollars 4,018.1 mn as at end May 2021. Real Sector 1.1 Price Indices May Month NCPI(2013=100) Year Ago NCPI - Year-on-Year % 2021 Ago 10 2020 National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - Headline 140.3 138.8 134.2 2021 Monthly Change % 1.1 (0.1) 0.4 6 Annual Average Change % 3.9 3.9 4.7 Per cent Per Year - on - Year Change % 4.5 3.9 4.0 2 National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - Core 142.5 141.3 138.1 Annual Average Change % 3.0 3.0 4.4 -2 J F M A M J Jy A S O N D Year - on - Year Change % 3.2 3.0 2.9 Month April Month CCPI(2013=100) Year Ago 2021 Ago CCPI - Year-on-Year % Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) - Headline 138.8 138.9 133.6 8 2020 Monthly Change % (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 2021 Annual Average Change % 3.9 4.0 4.8 6 Year - on - Year Change % 3.9 4.1 5.2 Per cent 4 Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) - Core 141.3 141.1 137.2 3.0 3.0 4.7 Annual Average Change % 2 Year - on - Year Change % 3.0 3.1 3.1 J F M A M J Jy A S O N D Month Source: Department of Census and Statistics 1.2 Prices 1.2.1 Pettah Market Average Wholesale Prices Average Retail Prices Food Item Week Month Year This Week Month This Week Year Ago Ago Ago Ago Week Ago Ago Rs./kg Rs./kg Rice Samba 140.00 140.00 145.00 96.00 145.00 145.00 146.50 98.00 Kekulu (Red) 98.00 98.00 98.00 90.20 105.00 105.00 105.75 93.00 Vegetables Beans 165.00 131.67 121.25 118.00 220.00 163.33 162.50 154.00 Cabbage 115.00 100.00 87.50 80.00 155.00 140.00 120.00 140.00 Carrot 150.00 126.67 108.75 140.00 200.00 153.33 135.00 180.00 Tomato 110.00 106.67 98.13 125.00 155.00 150.00 127.50 156.00 Pumpkin 40.00 33.33 30.83 29.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 58.00 Snake Gourd 120.00 120.00 91.25 116.00 160.00 160.00 120.00 152.00 Brinjal 150.00 106.67 83.75 116.00 200.00 146.67 120.00 160.00 Other Foods Red Onion (Local) 269.17 321.67 248.75 263.00 320.00 350.00 260.00 298.00 Big Onion (Imported) 77.38 80.17 65.67 58.50 100.00 100.00 82.92 74.00 Potato (Local) 140.25 156.67 130.75 172.00 160.00 178.33 145.00 200.00 Dried Chilli (Imported) 470.63 505.00 502.50 396.00 530.00 550.00 547.50 446.00 Dhal 189.50 185.00 185.63 140.00 205.00 190.83 193.38 150.00 Egg - White (Each) 15.50 15.50 12.88 18.30 16.00 16.33 13.88 19.30 Coconut (Each) 80.00 81.25 n.a. 63.50 93.00 87.67 68.38 77.50 Green Chilli 215.00 138.33 95.83 182.00 262.50 176.67 130.00 232.00 Lime 120.00 113.33 95.00 490.00 150.00 146.67 127.50 585.00 Fish (a) Kelawalla 612.50 623.33 642.50 512.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. 812.00 Balaya 355.00 480.00 347.50 346.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. 446.00 Salaya 160.00 206.67 157.50 234.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. 296.00 Hurulla 475.00 566.67 513.33 550.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. 650.00 (a) In Peliyagoda Fisheries Trade Centre, retail trade activities were not carried out since 21st October 2020. n.a. - not available 1 Narahenpita Economic Centre-Retail Prices (b) Beans 2020 2020 400 350.00 Brinjal 2021 2021 350 300.00 300 250.00 250 200.00 Rs./kg 200 Rs./kg 150 150.00 100 100.00 50 50.00 Week Week Rice - Samba Fish - Kelawalla 155.00 2020 1700.00 145.00 2021 1500.00 135.00 1300.00 125.00 1100.00 Rs./kg 115.00 Rs./kg 900.00 105.00 700.00 2020 95.00 500.00 2021 85.00 300.00 Week Week Potato (Local) Coconut 100.00 420 370 80.00 320 60.00 Rs./kg 270 220 2020 Rs/Each 2020 40.00 170 2021 2021 120 20.00 Week Week 1.2.2 Dambulla Market 1.2.3 Narahenpita Economic Centre Average Prices - This Week Average Retail Prices Item (Rs./kg) Item (Rs./kg) Wholesale Retail (a) This Week (b) Week Ago (b) Rice Rice Samba 150.00 n.a. Samba n.a. n.a. Kekulu (Red) 105.00 n.a. Kekulu (Red) n.a. n.a. Vegetables Vegetables Beans 135.00 n.a. Beans n.a. n.a. Cabbage 100.00 n.a. Cabbage n.a. n.a. Carrot 134.00 n.a. Carrot n.a. n.a. Tomato 100.00 n.a. Tomato n.a. n.a. Pumpkin 46.50 n.a. Pumpkin n.a. n.a. Snake Gourd 95.00 n.a. Snake Gourd n.a. n.a. Brinjal 117.50 n.a. Brinjal n.a. n.a. Ash Plantain 30.50 n.a. Ash Plantain n.a. n.a. Other Foods Other Foods Red Onion (Local) 215.00 n.a. Red Onion (Local) n.a. n.a. Big Onion (Imported) 86.50 n.a. Big Onion (Imported) n.a. n.a. Potato (Local) 136.50 n.a. Potato (Local) n.a. n.a. Dried Chilli (Imported) 505.00 n.a. Potato (Imported) n.a. n.a. Coconut (Each) 65.50 n.a. Dried Chilli (Imported) n.a. n.a. 1.2.4 Marandagahamula Market Dhal n.a. n.a. Sugar - White n.a. n.a. Average Wholesale Price of Rice Egg - White (Each) n.a. n.a. Coconut (Each) n.a. n.a. Item This Week Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago Green Chilli n.a. n.a. (Rs./kg) Fish Samba 147.25 146.75 141.75 95.10 Kelawalla n.a. n.a. Kekulu (White) 109.00 107.00 99.88 88.80 Balaya n.a. n.a. Kekulu (Red) 99.50 98.25 96.88 90.80 Salaya n.a. n.a. Nadu 116.00 113.00 112.50 93.00 Hurulla n.a. n.a. (a) Retail prices of Dambulla market were not available in this week. (b) Retail prices of Narahenpita market were not available in this week and last week. n.a. - not available 1 1.3 GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant (2010) Prices - Growth Rates in value added terms 2019 2020 Item % Change Real GDP Annual (a)(b) Annual (a) 3rd Qtr (a)(b) 4th Qtr (a) 6.0 Agriculture 1.0 (2.4) 3.1 1.3 -4.1 Industry 2.6 (6.9) 0.6 1.3 1.4 2 2 1 4 3 1 4 3 1 4 3 -2.0 2 ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q ' Q Services 2.2 (1.5) 2.1 1.9 ' Q 2.7 15' Q1 15' Q4 16' Q3 17 18' Q3 19 20 20 15 15 16 16' Q2 16 17' Q1 17 17' Q4 18 18' Q2 18 19' Q1 19 19' Q4 20' Q2 20' Q3 Taxes less subsidies on 2.4 (8.0) (2.9) (0.8) -10.0 3.4 products GDP 2.3 (3.6) 1.3 1.3 -18.0 Quarter 2.0 (a) Provisional (b) Revised Source: Department of Census and Statistics 1.4 Agricultural Production 2020 2021 Tea Production Item Unit (a) (b) %Change Jan - Apr Jan - Apr 300 Tea (Mn kg) 74.5 103.4 38.8 .
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    List of Acronyms AAC Advisory Audit Committee BI Business Intelligence AASL Airport and Aviation Services (Sri Lanka) Limited BIA Bandaranaike International Airport ACU Asian Clearing Union BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral AD Authorised Dealer Technical and Economic Cooperation ADB Asian Development Bank BIMV Budget Implementation and Monitoring Unit AFD Agency For Development BIS Bank for International Settlements AFIT Agency For International Trade BLS Bureau of Labour Statistics AI Artificial Intelligence BMARI Bandaranaike Memorial Ayurveda Research AIID Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Institute ALMA Active Liability Management Act BMI Body Mass Index AMC Authorised Money Changers BOC Bank of Ceylon AMCCs Authorised Money Changing Companies BOI Board of Investment AML Anti-Money Laundering BOOT Build, Own, Operate and Transfer AMLO Anti-Money Laundering Office BOP Balance of Payments AMP Agriculture Sector Modernisation Project BOS Business Outlook Survey ANRPC Association of Natural Rubber Producing bpd barrels per day Countries BPM Business Process Management AOD Academy of Design BPM6 Balance of Payments Manual Sixth Edition APG Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering BPO Business Process Outsourcing API Agriculture Production Index BRIC Brazil, Russia, India and China APIs Application Programming Interfaces BRIC Budget Review and Implementation Committee APPFs Approved Pension and Provident Funds BRT Bus Rapid Transit APREA Asia Pacific Real Estate Association BSI Business Sentiment Indices APTA Asia-Pacific

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    International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 7, Issue 12, December 2017 883 ISSN 2250-3153 The Long-Run Relationship between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Behavior in Postwar Economy of Sri Lanka DHD Nadeesha * Institute of Human Resource Advancement, University of Colombo Abstract- The study investigates the dynamic relations between macroeconomics behaviour and all share price index (ASPI) performance in post war economy of Sri Lanka for the period 2009-2016, using monthly series of the corresponding variables. The study considers Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) and Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR), money supply as measure for country’s interest rates which supervise the behaviour of money market, Colombo Consumer price index as measure of inflation and exchange rates as the measure of external sector in economy of Sri Lanka. The objective was achieved by identifying the influence of macroeconomic variables on ASPI by using the statistical techniques of unit root test in order to fulfill the objective of stationary for all the macroeconomic variables and ASPI. The Johansen co-integration test was used to investigate whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the trace statistics and the maximum Eigen-value tests. The variables were found to be co-integrated with at least one co-integrating vector. Finally, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was developed to forecast the long term behaviour. The results reveal that the change in average prime Deposit rate(AWDR), inflation rate (INF), exchange rate of Britain Pounds (GBP) and Japanese Yen (JPY), Special Drawing Right (SDR) affect All Share Price Index(ASPI) while money supply and average prime lending rate (AWPR) does not influence on ASPI.
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    Market Update and Fund Review

    ASSET PRIVATE MY WEALTH MANAGEMENT WEALTH MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT MARKET UPDATE AND FUND REVIEW 2019 JUNE Click here for download MARKET BRIEF BY NDB WEALTH Inflation as measured by the CCPI decreased to 3.8% in June 2019 from 5.0% in May 2019, on a year on INFLATION RATE DECLINES year basis. Lower food inflation is the main catalyst driving the overall inflation lower. However, core inflation remained relatively high at 5.8% as at June 2019 (6.2% in May 2019). We expect inflation to be around 4% - 6% in 2019. Sri Lankan Rupee dips marginally for the month of June. The Sri Lankan rupee depreciated by a mere SRI LANKAN RUPEE 0.23% against the US Dollar during the quarter. It also depreciated against the Euro, Japanese Yen and DIPS MARGINALLY the Indian Rupee by 1.44%, 3.09% and 0.39% respectively during the period, while it appreciated by 2.90% against the Sterling Pound. The Central Bank concluded the second issuance of International Sovereign Bond in 2019 in June 2019. The Central Bank continued to be a net buyer of US Dollars in the second quarter of 2019, as total net purchases of US Dollars exceeded USD 138 million for the first five months of 2019. The benchmark 364-day Treasury bill rate decreased sharply by 170 basis points during the second BENCHMARK quarter to 8.70% as at June 2019. The issuance of the second sovereign bond, low credit demand, INTEREST RATE DECLINES improved liquidity in the market and lower global interest rates have been the key factors for the sharp decrease in interest rates.
  • Economic and Social Statistics

    Economic and Social Statistics

    2019 ii Central Bank of Sri Lanka Statistics Department Tel. : 2477579 Fax : 2477728 E-mail : [email protected] Web site : http://www.cbsl.gov.lk Volume XLI ISSN 1391 - 3611 ISBN 978 - 955 - 575 - 381 - 4 July 2019 Price : Rs. 300/- Printed at Central Bank Printing Press, 58, Sri Jayewardenepura Mawatha, Rajagiriya, Sri Lanka. Published by Statistics Department Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 30, Janadhipathi Mawatha, Colombo 01, Sri Lanka. iii CONTENTS 1 KEY SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Sri Lanka – Country Profile 1 4.1 Summary of National Accounts 27 1.1 Real Sector 2 4.2 GDP, GNI and Deflators (Factor Cost Prices) 1.2 Agriculture and Industry 3 1970 – 2018 28 1.3 Price and Wages 4 4.3 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Prices 1970 – 2018 29 1.4 Infrastructure 4 4.4 Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices 1.5 External Sector 5 1970 – 2018 30 1.6 Money and Interest Rates 6 4.5 Gross National Income by Industrial Origin 1.7 Money and Capital Markets 7 at Constant (2010) Prices 31 1.8 Government Finance 8 4.6 Gross National Income by Industrial Origin 1.9 Financial Institutions 8 at Current Market Prices 32 Selected Socio-Economic Indicators 4.7 Composition of Gross Domestic Product – Graphical Illustrations 9 at Current Market Prices 33 4.8 Investment and Savings 2 CLIMATE (Current Market Prices) 34 4.9 Quarterly Estimates of GDP 2.1 Mean Temperature 11 [at (2010) Constant Prices] 34 2.2 Rainfall and Rainy Days 4.10 Aggregate Demand 35 – Hydro-Catchment Areas 11 4.11 Provincial Gross Domestic Product 2.3 Rainfall and Rainy Days