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Consumer Borrowing After Regulations on Mortgages Norwegian School of Economics Bergen, Spring 2019 Consumer Borrowing after Regulations on Mortgages: An empirical analysis of the impact of stricter residential mortgage regulations on the use of consumer credit loans in Norway. Thomas Jebsen and Hanne Tveit Supervisor: Maximilian Rohrer Master Thesis in Financial Economy NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS This thesis was written as a part of the Master of Science in Economics and Business Administration at NHH. Please note that neither the institution nor the examiners are responsible − through the approval of this thesis − for the theories and methods used, or results and conclusions drawn in this work. Abstract Over the past six years, consumer credit loans have grown at twice the rate of mortgage loans. Yet, policymakers have up to now only manifested regulations on lending practices for residential mortgage loans. In this thesis, we investigate how consumer credit borrowing has changed in regard to house prices in the event of the policy shifts in 2015 and 2017. Drawing on data from a bank offering consumer credit loans and a consumer loan-agent, we find that consumer credit loans increased with house prices in contrast to pre-regulation in which house prices impacted consumer credit loans negatively. By using the difference-in-difference method, our results show that the effect is more prominent in areas where higher educated people reside as well as in the areas outside the four largest cities in Norway. The results are consistent with arguments that people substitute low-cost mortgages with high-cost consumer credit loans. Hence, the empirical findings are inconsistent with the regulation`s goal of reducing household debt in Norway. 2 Acknowledgements We would like to express our sincerest gratitude to those who were critical in making this thesis possible. Firstly, we especially wish to express our gratitude towards our supervisor, Maximilan Rohrer for good guidance and feedback throughout our work with this thesis. Secondly, we thank the people working in the bank for providing us with consumer loan data, as well as two anonymous people from the loan agent providing us with application data. Both firms made it possible to conduct our analyses. Thirdly, we would like to thank Anders Lund at Norsk Eiendomsverdi for providing us with house indexes on both borough and county level. We are also grateful for NAV for providing unemployment data as well as the four municipalities of Bergen, Oslo, Stavanger and Trondheim for providing us with geographical data. Additionally, we appreciate the help from everyone else we have been in contact with. A few of these persons and institutions are: Morten Sæthre, Erling Røed Larsen, Norges Bank and Statistics Norway. Lastly, we would like to say thank you to our friends and families for the support throughout this process. 3 Table of contents 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. MOTIVATIONAL BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................... 4 2.1. REGULATION ON REQUIREMENTS FOR RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LOANS IN NORWAY ............................ 4 2.2. REGULATIONS ON CONSUMER LOANS ..................................................................................................... 6 2.3. CENTRAL DEBT REGISTRY ...................................................................................................................... 7 3. HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT .......................................................................................................... 7 3.1.1. Borrowing after regulations on mortgage loans. ............................................................................. 7 3.1.2. Consumer borrowing after regulations on unsecured loans. ........................................................... 8 3.1.3. Effects of financial literacy ............................................................................................................... 8 3.1.4. Effects on cities and districts ............................................................................................................ 9 3.2. HYPOTHESIS ........................................................................................................................................... 9 4. DATA ....................................................................................................................................................... 10 4.1. DESCRIPTION OF DATA ......................................................................................................................... 10 4.2. TRANSFORMATION OF DATA ................................................................................................................. 14 4.3. DATA QUALITY ..................................................................................................................................... 16 4.3.1. Validity and reliability .................................................................................................................... 16 4.3.2. Coverage ......................................................................................................................................... 16 4.3.3. Measurement bias ........................................................................................................................... 17 5. THE NORWEGIAN CONSUMER CREDIT MARKET ................................................................... 17 5.1. UNIQUE FEATURES OF THE NORWEGIAN MARKET ................................................................................ 18 5.1.1. Enforcement agency ........................................................................................................................ 18 5.1.2. Credit scoring ................................................................................................................................. 18 5.2. CUSTOMERS OF CONSUMER CREDIT LOANS .......................................................................................... 19 5.2.1. Gender ............................................................................................................................................ 19 5.2.2. Age .................................................................................................................................................. 19 5.2.3. Income ............................................................................................................................................. 20 5.2.4. Purpose ........................................................................................................................................... 21 6. RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IN NORWAY ................................................................................ 21 6.1. DEVELOPMENT OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IN NORWAY ................................................................. 21 6.1.1. BSU ................................................................................................................................................. 22 7. RESEARCH DESIGN ........................................................................................................................... 23 7.1. FIXED EFFECTS REGRESSION ................................................................................................................. 23 7.1.1. Fixed individual effects ................................................................................................................... 23 7.1.2. Fixed time effects ............................................................................................................................ 23 7.1.3. Fixed effects model ......................................................................................................................... 24 7.1.4. Pooled OLS ..................................................................................................................................... 25 4 7.2. DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS ................................................................................................ 25 7.2.1. Difference-in-difference model ....................................................................................................... 25 7.2.2. Education as treatment group ........................................................................................................ 26 7.2.3. Cities as treatment group ................................................................................................................ 28 7.2.4. Difference-in-difference assumptions ............................................................................................. 28 8. VARIABLE SELECTION ..................................................................................................................... 30 8.1. DEPENDENT VARIABLE ........................................................................................................................ 31 8.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLE ...................................................................................................................... 32 8.3. CONTROL VARIABLES ........................................................................................................................... 32 8.3.1. Weighted average education ........................................................................................................... 33 8.3.2. Male percentage ............................................................................................................................
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