Wayne State University Wayne State University Dissertations 1-2-2013 Pathways To Civil War Susumu Suzuki Wayne State University, Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/oa_dissertations Recommended Citation Suzuki, Susumu, "Pathways To Civil War" (2013). Wayne State University Dissertations. Paper 799. This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@WayneState. It has been accepted for inclusion in Wayne State University Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@WayneState. PATHWAYS TO CIVIL WAR: A STUDY OF MULTIPLE PATHS TOWARD CIVIL WAR by SUSUMU SUZUKI DISSERTATION Submitted to the Graduate School of Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY 2013 MAJOR: POLITICAL SCIENCE Approved by: ________________________________________ Advisor Date ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ________________________________________ © COPYRIGHGT BY SUSUMU SUZUKI 2013 All Rights Reserved DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my parents, Sakae and Kazuko Suzuki, who have been a constant source of teaching and support. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful to Dr. Frederic S. Pearson, my dissertation advisor and collaborator, and Dr. Volker Krause, my longtime mentor, collaborator, and friend. Without their intellectual challenges, timely guidance, and robust support, I would be never able to complete my project. I also would like to express my gratitude to Drs. Timothy A. Carter, Kevin Deegan-Krause, and Pariedeau Mars who served as my dissertation committee member and gave countless suggestions and encouragement. I want to extend my acknowledgements to Drs. (late) J. David Singer (JDS), Daniel Geller, Marie Olson Lounsbery, and Kofi Nisa-Pepra. My thanks are due to many individuals who affiliate with the Uppsala University’s Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) in Sweden, the Peace Research Institute-Oslo’s (PRIO) Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW) in Norway, and the Correlates of War (CoW) Project in the United States and elsewhere for providing me various technical supports and consultations on data collection. I also thank my mentors and friends in Japan, specifically Mrs. Kozo Mukaiyama, Jun Sakurada, Masahiko Suzuki, and Toru Ugajin, for their wonderful friendship and uninterrupted encouragement. My brother’s family deserves my sincere appreciation due to my long-term absence from home in Fukushima, Japan. Lastly, I would like to acknowledge the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, the Department of Political Science, the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, and the Graduate School, as well as the undergraduate research and creative project program at Wayne State University for a number of financial and institutional supports to my work presented in this volume and elsewhere. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Dedication………………………………………………………………………………………... ii Acknowledgements...…………………………………………………………………………….iii Lists of Tables…………………………………………………………………………………....vii Lists of Figures………………………………………………………………………………….viii Chapter 1: Introduction...………………………………………………………………………....1 1.1 The Puzzles…………………………………………………………………………….….1 1.2 What are the Puzzles in Puzzles? ....................................................................................... 4 1.3 Introducing a Process Approach to Understanding Multiple Paths toward Civil War…..10 1.3.1 Limits of Disaggregation, Micro-Level, and Dyadic Approaches……………………….10 1.3.2 A Process Approach to Understanding Multiple Paths toward Civil War…….................12 1.4 Roadmaps for the Study………………………………………………………….............21 Chapter 2: What Is A Civil War? Conceptual Analysis and Theoretical Implications……..…...30 2.1 Do we all know what a civil war is? If so, what is it? …………………………..30 2.2 Defining civil War ………………………………………………………………37 2.3 Classifying civil War…………………………………………………………….44 2.3.1 Ethnic vs. Non-ethnic War…………………………………………….………....46 2.3.2 Guerrilla vs. Conventional Warfare ...………………...…………………............53 2.3.3 Summary…………………………………………………………………………56 2.4 Civil Wars and Other Forms of Collective Violence ..…………………………..57 2.5 Concluding Remarks………………………………………………………….....64 Chapter 3: Explaining Patterns of Conflict Escalation: Is There A Single Theory of Conflict Escalation?..........…........................................72 3.1 Searching Certain Patterns of Conflict Escalation....…………………………….72 iv 3.2 Existing Explanations of Patterns of Conflict Escalation or Paths to Civil War...77 3.3 An Alternative Explanation: Uncertainty and Civil War.………………………..86 Chapter 4: Testing Conflict Escalation to Civil War…………………………………………...103 4.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………….103 4.2 Case Selection…………………………………………………………………..106 4.3 Measuring Key Variables: Definition, Measurement, and Data………………..107 4.4 Control Variables: Definition, Measurement, and Data ……………………….115 4.5 Model Specification…………………………………………………………….120 4.6 Results and Interpretation....……………………………………………………129 4.7 Concluding Remarks …………………………………………………………...154 Chapter 5: Unpacking Internal Dynamics in Civil Wars…………………………………….…172 5.1 Introduction……………………………………...……………………………...172 5.2 Case Selection and Analytical Framework..……………………………………174 5.3 Positive Case Illustration…………………….…………………………………180 5.4 Negative Case Illustration……………………..………………………………..196 5.5 A Comparison and Summary …....……………………………………………..218 Chapter 6: Conclusions: Summary and Future Research………………………………………232 6.1 Summary ……………………………………………………………………….232 6.2 Are My Findings Useful? Is there Policy-Relevant Knowledge?.......................236 6.3 Where Should We Go From Here? Future in Civil War Research……………..238 Appendix A: Bargaining Theory and Civil War (A brief introduction to the readers)…..……..243 v Appendix B: A List of Civil Wars, 1976-2000…..……………………………………………..248 Appendix C: Technical Notes to Statistical Estimation…...……………………………………250 Appendix D: Results of Robustness Tests….…………………………………………………..253 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………258 Abstract……………..…………………………………………………………………………..306 Autobiographical Statement………………………………………………………………….....308 vi LISTS OF TABLES Table 2.1 Operational Definitions of Civil War…………………………………………………35 Table 2.2 Ethnic and non-ethnic Armed conflict Onset, 1946-2004……………………………49 Table 2.3 Correlation Matrix of Collective Violence Indicators ………………………………..61 Table 2.4 Results of Multiple Logit Analysis of the Onset of Civil Conflicts (Regan and Norton 2005)…..………………………………………………………….62 Table 3.1 Summary of Four Cases.………………………………………………………………76 Table 4.1 Summary Statistics...…….………………………………………………………......116 Table 4.2 Impact of Armed Rebel Resistance on Government Repression Levels ……………130 Table 4.3 Predicted Probabilities of Government Repression Levels………………………….133 Table 4.4 Impact of Government Repression on Armed Rebel Resistance Levels…...………..136 Table 4.5 Predicted Probabilities of Armed Rebel Resistance Levels.…………………………138 Table 4.6 Effects of Government Repression and Armed Rebel Resistance on Civil War..……………………………………………………………………………141 Appendix A: A List of Civil (Intra-state) Civil Wars, 1976-2000 (chronological order).……...248 Appendix D: Table 4.7 Replication for Models 7-9 with ACD/UCDP Civil War Data……….254 Appendix D: Table 4.8 Results of Sensitivity Analyses with Different Estimators based on Model 9…………………………………………………………………………..256 vii LISTS OF FIGURES Figure 1.1Trend of Inter-state and Intra-state Armed Conflict Involvements, 1946-2004 (State-Year).……………………………………………………………………………2 Figure 1.2 Escalation of Internal Armed Conflict (Conflict Intensity)…………………………..14 Figure 1.3 an Evolutionary Conflict Process Model……………………………………………..15 Figure 1.4 Three Paths in a Dynamic Multiphase Process of Civil War (Suzuki)………………16 Figure 2.1 Comparison of CoW, PITF, and ACD datasets on Intra-state Armed Conflicts, 1976-2000 (State-Year)………………………………………………………………42 Figure 4.1 ROC Plot comparison between Models 7-9………………………………………...149 Figure 4.2 Predicted Probabilities of a Civil War Onset based on Model 9…………………....151 Figure 4.3 Predicted Probabilities of Civil War under Uncertainty…………………………….153 Figure 5.1 Trend of Fatal Attacks by Paramilitaries in Northern Ireland, 1970-2010………… 208 Appendix D: Figure 4.5 ROC Curve Plot based on Models 10-12.……………………………255 viii 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION “If there is a ‘master model’ of civil wars, we still do not know what it is” (Tarrow 2007: 596) “Much has been written on the causes of war; little has been learned about the subject” (Vasquez 2009: 3[1993:3]) 1.1 The Puzzles About forty years ago, the Correlates of War Project at the University of Michigan published Resorts to Arms (Small and Singer 1982). In the book, the authors presented a first systematic study of the frequency, intensity, and severity of civil wars across the world since 1816 and noted the importance of studying civil wars as follows: civil wars, insurgencies, and foreign interventions have come to dominate the headlines in our generation and many now play as important a role in the international community as traditional interstate war (Small and Singer 1982: 204-205). Today the devastation and human costs of civil wars on the globe have dominated daily- headlines. A study published in 2003 estimated that our generation witnessed over sixteen million deaths in 127 civil wars within 73 countries compared to three million deaths in 25 interstate wars involving 25 countries between