THE CRISIS IN LEBANON: A TEST OF CONSOCIATIONAL THEORY BY ROBERT G. CHALOUHI A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNCIL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 1978 Copyright 1978 by Robert G. Chalouhi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my thanks to the members of my committee, especially to my adviser, Dr. Keith Legg, to whom I am deeply indebted for his invaluable assistance and guidance. This work is dedicated to my parents, brother, sister and families for continued encouragement and support and great confidence in me; to my parents-in-law for their kindness and concern; and especially to my wife Janie for her patient and skillful typing of this manuscript and for her much- needed energy and enthusiasm. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii LIST OF TABLES vii ABSTRACT ix CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1 Applicability of the Model 5 Problems of System Change 8 Assumption of Subcultural Isolation and Uniformity 11 The Consociational Model Applied to Lebanon 12 Notes 22 CHAPTER II THE BEGINNINGS OF CONSOCIATIONALISM: LEBANON IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE. 25 The Phoenicians 27 The Birth of Islam 29 The Crusaders 31 The Ottoman Empire 33 Bashir II and the Role of External Powers 38 The Qaim Maqamiya 41 The Mutasarrif iyah: Confessional Representation Institutionalized. 4 6 The French Mandate, 1918-1943: The Consolidation of Consociational Principles 52 Notes 63 CHAPTER III: THE OPERATION OF THE LEBANESE POLITICAL SYSTEM 72 Confessionalism and Proportionality: Nominal Actors and Formal Rules . 72 The National Pact 79 The Formal Institutions 82 Political Clientelism: "Real" Actors and Informal Rules The Politics of Preferment and Patronage 92 Notes 95 CHAPTER IV: CONSOCIATIONALISM PUT TO THE TEST: LEBANON IN THE FIFTIES AND SIXTIES. 98 Elite Disunity 99 The "Rosewater" Revolution of 1952 . 99 President Chamoun and the the Crisis of 1958 104 Policy Causes and Consequences 109 The Crisis Proper: No Victor, No Vanquished 118 Shihab: 1958-1964 . 126 External and Internal Issues in the 1958 Crisis 130 Violation of Consociational Principles . 134 Notes 140 CHAPTER V: BREAKDOWN OF CONSOCIATIONAL PRINCIPLES-- THE INTERNAL FACTOR 146 Social Mobilization 148 Uneven Economic Development 151 The Principle of Proportionality 158 The Lebanese Economy 163 Planning and the Governmental Role .... 173 Notes 183 CHAPTER VI: THE EXTERNAL FACTOR — THE PALESTINIANS 187 Emergence of the Palestinian Resistance. 192 The 1969 Clashes 197 The Christian Response 202 Slide toward Civil War 205 Notes 214 CHAPTER VII: THE 1975-76 CIVIL WAR 220 Notes 231 CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUSION 233 Revision of the Consociational Model . 242 Social Mobilization 243 The Elite Cartel 245 The Palestinian Dimension 249 Notes 252 APPENDIX A: The Cairo Agreement 253 APPENDIX B: Composition of Opposing Forces in Lebanese Civil War, 1975-76 255 APPENDIX C: Lebanese Political Parties 257 BIBLIOGRAPHY 263 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 2 75 LIST OF TABLES Table Page I DISTRIBUTION OF THE MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL ADMINISTRATIVE COUNCIL BY SECT AND REGION .... 47 II CENSUS OF LEBANESE POPULATION TAKEN IN 1932. 59 III NUMBER OF DEPUTIES WHO SERVED IN PARLIAMENTS FIVE OR MORE TIMES: 1926-1972 75 IV PARLIAMENTARY MEMBERSHIP OF PARTIES IN LEBANON: 1951-1972 78 V ESTIMATED POPULATION OF LEBANON IN 19 5 6 80 VI DISTRICTS AND SECTARIAN DISTRIBUTION SINCE 1960 . 84 VII DISTRIBUTION OF PARLIAMENTARY SEATS BY SECTS: 1947-1972 85 VIII SECTARIAN PATTERNS OF CABINET STRUCTURES: 1943-1961 86 IX DISTRIBUTION OF MEMBERS IN NEW PARLIAMENT .... 129 X SEATS WON BY POLITICAL PARTIES IN 1960 130 XI SELECTED INDICATORS OF SOCIAL MOBILIZATION IN LEBANON 149 XII SOCIAL MOBILIZATION BY REGION IN LEBANON 150 XIII INCOME DISTRIBUTION, 1959 153 XIV INCOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SECTS 15 3 XV DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE OF BUSINESSMEN IN EACH SECTOR BY CITIZENSHIP AND BY RELIGION 155 XVI EDUCATIONAL STATUS OF WIFE AND HUSBAND, FAMILY INCOME, AND HUSBANDS ' S OCCUPATION BY RELIGIOUS GROUP: LEBANON, 19 71 156 XVII DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY RATE WITH REGARD TO AFFILIATION: LEBANON, 1971 160 XVIII NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN AND NUMBER OF LIVING CHILDREN PER 1,000 MARRIED WOMEN BY RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND WIFE'S AGE: LEBANON, 1971 161 XIX ORIGINS OF NET NATIONAL PRODUCT, 1950-1966. 166 XX TRADE AND FINANCE SECTORS AS % OF NET NATIONAL PRODUCT 1954-1966 167 XXI NATIONAL INCOME 1950 AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1972 BY SECTOR 169 XXII PERCENTAGE GROWTH OF SECTORS BETWEEN 19 5 AND 19 72 . 170 XXIII DISTRIBUTION OF THE ACTIVE LABOUR FORCE BY SECTOR 175 XXV GENERAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES OF LEBANON, 1964-1967 178 Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate Council of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy THE CRISIS IN LEBANON: A TEST OF CONSOCIATIONAL THEORY by Robert G. Chalouhi December, 1978 Chairman: Keith R. Legg Major Department: Political Science This dissertation focuses on the Lebanese political system, which prior to the destructive civil war of 1975-76, represented one of the few examples of a culturally divided, developing country that was able, for a period, to maintain a stable system of representative democracy. To study the nature of democracy in Lebanon, we used a framework provided by Arend Lijphart and his elaboration of the concept of Consociational democracy. This allowed us to examine to a more accurate degree the relationship between the country's political culture, social structure and political stability. Consociational democracy is essentially rule by an "elite cartel," where cooperation by the elite is able to circum- vent the culturally and politically fragmented society and thus maintain stability. Lebanon exhibits a complex "balance of power" system among traditional, autonomous groups in which religion represents the major line of division, allied closely with strong regional, client and family group affiliations or loyalties. Religion and politics are inextricably intertwined. It is the purpose of this study to discuss the operation of the Lebanese political system under this broad theme and in the process to suggest the underlying causes for the breakdown of the system. The introduction takes a look at the extent of applicability of Lebanon to the consociational system, surveying the literature on the subject and highlighting the shortcomings of the model. Chapter II examines the beginnings of the consociational system by surveying Lebanon in historical perspective. The next chapter looks at the operation of consociational democracy in independent Lebanon, which includes the formal institutions of the state and the all-important but less evident operation of the extensive patron-client network based on religious and family rivalries. The internal and external factors which weakened the structure in the fifties, with a specific focus on the crisis of 1958, are the concern of the next section. This conflict represented the beginning of the end for a stable consociational system in Lebanon. The next two chapters focus on the two major factors responsible for the ultimate collapse of the system. First, the internal cause involved a breakdown of elite unity, where changes could not be peacefully made to redress Moslem grievances involving preponderant Christian economic and political power. The external factor is the role of the Palestinians in Lebanon, who helped polarize the population . and add to the existing socio-economic cleavage. The final chapter presents conclusions derived from the study. The paper finds that the system could not cope, through peaceful means, with this combination of internal and external factors. The introduction of a new actor, wielding great influence on the system, upset the confessional balance. This was allied with a dissatisfied internal element, linked to the process of a change in the nature of the clientelist system. The study concludes that consociational theory proved inadequate in predicting and explaining the interaction of internal and external pressures. More attention should be focused on the conditions under which internal conflicts are exacerbated by external factors, as happened in the case of Lebanon. The measure of intensity of certain cleavages should be given more attention, as well as to the factors producing them. In this instance, the issue of support for the Palestinians sharply divided the two communities The lesser privileged Moslem elements whom modernization had not benefitted as much as it had the Christians were able to use the Palestinian guerrillas in Lebanon as a tool with which to attempt to overturn a system characterized by a Christian dominance of the elite, plus a Christian dominance of the resources of the state, which was largely a result of the role played by the clientelist network in Lebanon CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The relationship between political culture (defined as the attitudes, beliefs, values and political orientations of a people) and social structure on the one hand and the nature of the political system on the other is a highly relevant one for political scientists. One of the more interesting aspects of this subject is the relationship between a heterogeneous political culture (fragmented along racial, linguistic, regional or religious lines) and the prospects for a viable, stable democratic system. Many theorists assume that a democracy cannot operate in a society characterized by strong subcultural divisions, but rather that stability requires a homogeneous