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The MENARA Booklet for the Humanitarian Sector (Eds.) Sala Cristina Cristina & Quero Jordi the MENARA Booklet For Jordi Quero & Cristina Sala (Eds.) the MENARA MENARA the The HumanitarianSector booklet for the MENARA booklet for The Humanitarian Sector Jordi Quero & Cristina Sala (Eds.) © 2019 CIDOB Editors: Jordi Quero & Cristina Sala CIDOB Elisabets, 12 08001 Barcelona Tel.: 933 026 495 www.cidob.org [email protected] Print: Book-Print S.A. ISBN: 978-84-92511-61-7 Legal Deposit: B 6220-2019 Design and layout: Joan Antoni Balcells Barcelona, February 2019 Cover image Mustafa Khayat. Syrian refugee camp, Karkosik Erbil. https://www.flickr.com/photos/mustafakhayat/11876961544/in/album-72157639625717426/ Foreword ..................................................................................................................... 4 Jordi Quero & Cristina Sala Notes on contributors ............................................................................................... 5 Military factors in the MENA region: Challenging trends ..................................... 7 Sven Biscop & Julien Sassel Armed conflicts and the erosion of the state: The cases of Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria ...................................................................................................... 17 Virginie Collombier, Maria-Louise Clausen, Hiba Hassan, Helle Malmvig, Jan Pêt Khorto Militarization and militia-ization dynamics of armed group proliferation in Egypt and Libya .................................................................................................. 28 Rasmus Boserup & Virginie Collombier Demographic and economic material factors in the MENA region ................. 40 Musa McKee, Martin Keulertz, Negar Habibi, Mark Mulligan & Eckart Woertz Environmental factors in the MENA region: A SWOT analysis .......................... 46 Mark Mulligan, Martin Keulertz & Musa McKee The governance of migration and border controls in the European-North African context ................................................................. 51 Jean Pierre Cassarino & Raffaella A. Del Sarto The implications of the Syrian War for new regional orders in the Middle East ... 59 Rami G. Khouri Turkey’s response to and management of the Syrian refugee crisis ................ 68 Sabiha Senyücel & Gülşah Dark Critique of the Syrian refugee crisis response: The case of Lebanon .............. 75 Rabih Shibli & Carmen Geha Palestine and the Arab-Israeli conflict: 100 years of regional relevance and international failure ....................................................................... 80 Karim Makdisi The Gaza equation: The regional dimension of a local conflict ........................ 88 Andrea Dessì & Lorenzo Kamel Jihadist groups in North Africa and the Sahel: Between disintegration, reconfiguration and resilence ................................................................................ 94 Djalil Lounnas ANNEX 1. Analysis of the MENARA fact-finding missions ............................... 100 Mustafa Kaymaz, Anna Busquets & Eduard Soler i Lecha the MENARA Project for The Humanitarian Sector The MENARA Booklets are a series of publications, created under the MENARA Project framework, which provide insights on the Middle East and North Africa regional order. These Booklets translate scholarly-sound- ed research into helpful insights for practitioners, including humanitarian agencies; development agencies and NGOs; the private sector; and aca- demia. In each of the four Booklets you may find a compendium of articles and extracts covering the most pressing issues for your field of expertise. The MENARA Booklet for the Humanitarian Sector provides you state- of-the-art and thoughtful analysis which may help your organization to better address challenges and inform your daily decisions. It includes our researchers’ main ideas on topics like demographic, economic and envi- ronmental factors shaping violence in the region; militarization and armed group proliferation; the erosion of the authoritarian state; Turkey’s and Lebanon’s responses to refugee movements; and regional implications of the situation in Gaza, the Syrian and Yemeni wars and the post-conflict scenario in Libya. All these, read together, would offer a comprehensive picture of the most critical elements affecting the humanitarian reality of the region. Under the framework of the MENARA Project, fourteen research insti- tutions have been carrying out fieldwork in the last three years to improve our understanding of the Middle East and North Africa amid a shifting context. It has studied the geopolitical order in the making, identified the driving forces behind it, shed light on bottom-up dynamics and assessed the implications of these processes on the EU and its policies towards the region. All in all, analysis and ideas from fact-finding missions, interviews, stakeholders meetings and focus groups come together to offer you a valuable outcome. The extracts presented in this compilation have been modified and adapted by the editors. For the sake of accessibility, we have rid every bibliographic reference and footnote included in the original versions of the articles. For those interested in them, please check the full original ver- sions at www.menaraproject.eu. Some other minor editing changes have been introduced to make the document fully coherent (such as changes in names and number of sections and subsections or the elimination of some graphs and infographics). We have tried to respect each author’s contribu- tions, trying to be as less intrusive as possible. We hope that The MENARA Booklet for the Humanitarian Sector is use- ful and enjoyable for you. The editors 4 Jordi Quero & Cristina Sala (Eds.) Notes on contributors Sven Biscop is Director of the Europe in the World Programme at the Egmont - Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels. Rasmus Boserup is Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for Interna- tional Studies (DIIS). Anna Busquets is Information Manager at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs). Jean-Pierre Cassarino is is Senior Research Fellow at the European Neigh- bourhood Policy Chair of the College of Europe (Natolin Campus). Virginie Collombier is Part-time Professor at the European University In- stitute (EUI). Maria-Louise Clausen is a Post-doc researcher in International Security at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Gülşah Dark is a project officer of the Center for Public Policy and Democ- racy Studies (PODEM), Istanbul. Raffaella A. Del Sarto is Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS Europe) and Part-time Professor at the Robert Schuman Centre, European Uni- versity Institute (EUI). Andrea Dessì is Research Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). Carmen Geha is Assistant Professor of Public Administration at the Amer- ican University of Beirut (AUB). Negar Habibi is a PhD student in the Department of Political Economy at King’s College London. Hiba Hassan is a Yemen specialist with over 12 years of experience in ana- lyzing political and security developments. Lorenzo Kamel is Senior Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). Mustafa Kaymaz is Research Assistant at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs). Martin Keulertz is Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut (AUB). Rami G. Khouri is Visiting Professor of media studies, journalist in residence, and Senior Public Policy Fellow at the American University of Beirut (AUB). Djalil Lounnas is Assistant Professor of International Studies at Al Akha- wayn University in Ifrane, Morocco. Karim Makdisi is Associate Professor of International Politics in the De- partment of Political Studies and Public Administration at the American University of Beirut (AUB). Musa McKee is consultant for the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia in Beirut on food security, technology and social protection. 5 the MENARA Project for The Humanitarian Sector Helle Malmvig is Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Mark Mulligan is Reader in Geography at King’s College London and Se- nior Fellow of UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre. Jan Pêt Khorto is co-founder and board-member of the Syrian Cultural Institute in Denmark. Jordi Quero is Researcher at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs). Cristina Sala is Researcher at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs). Julien Sassel is a Research Intern within the Europe in the World Pro- gramme at Egmont - Royal Institute for International Relations in Brus- sels. Sabiha Senyücel is a founding member of the Center for Public Policy and Democracy Studies (PODEM), Istanbul. Rabih Shibli is the Director for the Center for Civic Engagement and Com- munity Service at the American University of Beirut (AUB). Eduard Soler i Lecha is Senior Research Fellow at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) and the Scientific Coordinator of the MENARA Project. Eckart Woertz is Senior Research Fellow at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs). 6 Jordi Quero & Cristina Sala (Eds.) Military factors in the MENA region: Challenging trends SVEN BISCOP & JULIEN SASSEL MENARA Working Papers, No. 6. (2017) EGYPT: EVOLUTION OF THE ARMED FORCES Egypt’s armed forces are among the largest in the MENA region. Next to its army, navy and air force, Egypt has an important air defence com- mand and large paramilitary forces (Central Security Forces in the Ministry of Interior, and a National Guard). As a result
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