Peter Nassif

FOKUS | 4/2018

The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018: Much Ado about Nothing?

On 6 May 2018, went to the polls humanitarian support for Syrian refugees Political and Security Challenges to elect a new parliament for the first time as well as political support for neighboring in nine years. These elections stand out host countries.3 More important was the The parliament’s elections were postponed for the largest reform in voting laws in CEDRE4 donor conference that was held in 2013 and 2014 because of security Lebanese history, the influence of regional in Paris on 6 April, where 11 billion USD con­cerns. During the time, the Syrian War tensions, but also a civil society challen- in credits and grants were pledged to Le- was raging in the Lebanese-Syrian border ging the old guard. After much anticipa- banon during election season – a country region, while the rise of ISIS and frequent tion, the general elections changed less with a gross public debt of almost 80 billi- car bombings in ’s southern the political landscape than many people on USD5 and the fifth-highest debt-to-GDP Beirut neighborhoods led to a general had hoped. The results demonstrated that ratio worldwide.6 sense of insecurity. The Syrian government Lebanese voters and political parties are was losing ground and the Lebanese Shiite still far away from running and voting on A Peculiar Political System Hezbollah militia had joined the conflict in policy-based solutions to tackle the socio- 2012 to fight alongside the regime. It took economic challenges facing the country. Lebanon is a consociational democracy until mid-2014 for the Lebanese and Syrian that relies on a system of proportional army with Hezbollah to secure the border Since their last election in 2009, the par- sectarian representation.7 Based on a late region, although pockets of ISIS remained liament had extended its mandate three Ottoman power-sharing formula,8 each in Lebanon until summer 2017. times before agreeing to hold elections of the 18 acknowledged religious sects in in 2018. The delays were so extensive that Lebanon enjoy access to the government: Security is not the only concern in Leba­ the last parliament was elected in a diffe- the 128 seats in Parliament are distributed non: the incapability of the Lebanese rent regional context – before the “Arab between sects in accordance with their government to agree on basic infrastruc- Spring” and the Syrian War. Revolutions size of population. After Lebanon’s inde- ture projects led to major crisis in the have reshaped Tunisia and Egypt, while pendence in 1943, a power-sharing deal summer of 2015. Beirut’s main landfill was , Iraq and Yemen plunged into gru- based on the census of 1936 gave the lar- closed without having an alternative at esome wars and experienced the rise and gest sect (Christian Maronite) the Presiden- hand, because political actors could not fall of the Islamic State. In recent months, cy, the second largest group (Sunni Islam) agree on a plan that would benefit them the Trump administration, Israel and Saudi the Prime Minister, and the third (Shia Is- all. Organized waste management became Arabia have been increasingly escalating lam) the Speaker of Parliament. No official impossible for the next eight months, their campaign against Iran, with the US census has taken place since 1936, but the during which municipalities had to store withdrawing from the Iran Deal (JCPOA)1 of 1989 that ended the Le- waste within the city, often in residential two days after the Lebanese elections. banese Civil War (1975-1990) strengthened neighborhoods – if garbage was collec- the role of the Prime Minister and Speaker ted at all. The notorious corruption and Internally, Lebanon is closely affected by of Parliament in relation to the Presidency. incompetence of the Lebanese political neighboring Syria where the war has pro- Most militias were disarmed after the war, system sparked protests in the summer of duced an outflow of 5.6 million refugees, but Syria continued to occupy Lebanon for 2015 that grew from the garbage crisis to with around 1.5 million refugees living in another 15 years, effectively controlling overall contempt for the government and Lebanon,2 rendering it the country with the country through political proxies and political system. The protest movement the highest count of refugees per capita. its military force. This included the support was able to mobilize and quickly organize Interestingly, the war and refugee crisis of Hezbollah, keeping the group in arms the civil society, surprising the established did not play a large role during election and shielded from accountability. Still, political class. This became apparent in the campaigns – partly because of the lack of virtually all major political parties today municipal elections of May 2016, where feasible solutions and partly because of a had a military wing during the war. After the civil society that formed in the previ- tacit agreement among parties to avoid commanding militias (or the army) during ous summer earned considerable votes in this path. An important aspect was the the war, today’s party leaders maintain several districts – particularly Beirut, where buildup of major international conferences their power through a system of patro­ they won 40% on specific seats. Due to the where Lebanon wanted to give a positi- nage and sectarianism. majority-based electoral system at the time, ve image and avoid populist campaign the votes where not enough to win any rhetoric: On 24 and 25 April 2018, the seats, but they demonstrated that the civil Brussels II conference was held to secure society was a force to be reckoned with.9

1 The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018

FOKUS | 4/2018

The Lebanese Game of Chess interests. Instead, the move weakened running against them in other areas. the KSA’s position in Lebanon and with it Other implications include: First, indepen- At the same time, a political crisis had that of its ally Hariri, while Hezbollah and dents and popular candidates could no been looming: the Lebanese President’s President Aoun were praised for keeping longer rely on their own weight but rather term had run out in May 2014 with no calm, uniting the country and solving the had to attach their candidacy to strong successor in place and the Parliament’s crisis diplomatically. lists that expected to win seats. Second, two main blocks were in a deadlock over because the system no longer follows a whom to elect. It wasn’t until early 2016 Changing the Electoral Law winner-takes-all approach, the seats of that the rival Christian parties Lebanese each sect gained considerable weight, Forces (LF) and ’s Free Patriotic Before 2018, elections in Lebanon were even in areas that were traditionally seen Movement (FPM) came to an agreement based on an old majority-based electoral as strongholds of a particular sect and that secured the Presidency for Michel law that followed a winner-takes-all logic. In their respective parties. Third, the diaspora Aoun. Having initially pushed for a diffe- an attempt to avoid the deadlock produced vote opened the elections to a completely rent candidate, , Sunni leader by previous elections, the law was changed new ecosystem of Lebanese nationals. and son of the late Prime Minister Rafik to a more proportional voting system. Since Lebanese citizens living abroad are Hariri, was forced to agree on the deal believed to amount to roughly the same that would also make him the new Prime The Lebanese parties primarily repre- size as inside Lebanon, this may have Minister. As such he led a government that sent religious sects and family relations, considerable impact if enough diaspo- included almost all major parties, inclu- although minor ideological differences ra Lebanese choose to take part in the ding Hezbollah –, which Hariri opposes on may still occur, particularly within the elections.12 a political and sectarian level. Amid a regi- sects. Hence, parties very rarely engage onal rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, their constituents on the level of ideology The 2018 Election Outcome Hezbollah enjoys the strong support of or political programs. The pronounced Iran, while Hariri is seen as Saudi Arabia’s sectarian identity of Lebanese voters and After nine years without elections, there man in Lebanon.10 In October 2016, a party loyalty is passed on within fami- was a general mood of excitement, and national agreement was reached when lies and over generations. Shifts in voter although the candidate registration Michel Aoun’s election ended a 29-month alignment are unlikely because parties was not cheap (ca. 4400€),13 close to a vacuum in the presidency. The new nati- focus on religious rhetoric, clientelism and thousand candidates signed up to run for onal unity government was finally able to family affiliations instead of a program- office, including a record number of 86 sign a series of pressing is­sues into laws matic platform. This would make it nearly women (in 2009 only 12). For a parliament and completely overhaul the electoral law impossible for political parties to escape that had only four women – all represen- for parliamentary elections, which was an the deadlock in the political system by ting powerful men (the wife, daughter or outstanding issue regarding the political changing their programmatic orientation. sister of another politician), this could have process in Lebanon. Instead, the system itself needs to be chan- been an important step towards more ged, thus parties agreed on changing the gender balance. Furthermore, the large In late 2017 however, Lebanon was once voting system. amount of young and alternative candida- again reminded of how closely its fate is tes gave hope to the civil society and those tied to the regional rivalry between Saudi In 2017, a consensus was reached that demanding a change. Arabia and Iran: Saudi King Salman and his opened the elections to the Lebanese son, Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), had diaspora and switched the voting from The outcome however was a rather sobe- opposed that Hariri governed together a majority to a proportional system. ring experience on several levels. Voter with Hezbollah – an actor who is actively However, it kept in place the sectarian turnout was surprisingly low – down to fighting Saudi interests in Syria, Iraq and restrictions and made use of serious 49% from 54% in 2009. Established parties Yemen. Hariri, who also holds the Saudi manipulations regarding the design of blamed this on the complicated new citizenship, unexpectedly resigned from the voting districts as well as defining the electoral law, but the general frustration the Prime Ministry while on a trip to Saudi exact number of seats and their sects. The with the Lebanese political system is high: Arabia in November 2017. The episode was law’s requirement for candidates to run in the elections witnessed 800,000 first-time resolved when France got involved and fixed lists was regarded as helpful to push voters,14 but only 3% of the Lebanese Hariri was allowed to leave the KSA, only to parties to agree on a coherent policy that youth is “satisfied with the way democracy return to Lebanon and annul his resigna- would bring them together in the list.11 is exercised in Lebanon.”15 Similarly, the tion. The standoff was generally consi- Instead, fixed lists lead parties to abandon participation of diaspora in the voting dered to have been created by MBS who political platforms more than ever, in favor did not live up to the expectations: of the allegedly pressured Hariri into resignation of combining parties and candidates to approximately 4 million Lebanese citizens to dissolve the Lebanese government form lists that accumulate a maximum of abroad,16 only 83 thousand registered17 and plunge the country into a chaos that votes. Established parties joined lists with and just over half of them actually voted.18 would isolate Hezbollah, benefiting Saudi allies and rivals in some districts, while

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Because the threshold is calculated based independents won enough seats to render trated their ability to compromise on poli- on the actual votes, a low turnout could it one of the largest factions of 40 seats. To- cy as long they can secure mutual benefits. help underdog lists if they united enough gether with their main Christian ally, Presi- The new government’s priorities will be to voters around it. This worked well in dent Aoun’s FPM and their block who won combat Lebanon’s immense debt and find the predominantly Christian East Beirut 29 seats (including two of Aoun’s sons-in- ways to rescue the economy. (), where the civil society’s united law), Hezbollah and their partners can now list “Koulluna Watani” was able to win a lead the biggest coalition in parliament. Outlook seat – their only election victory and one This has led international observers to of just three newly elected female MPs.19 declare the elections a landslide victory for While the Hezbollah-led camp has made Another female candidate of the same list Hezbollah.23 Israeli Minister Naftali Bennett considerable gains, the outcome also and area, Joumana Haddad, was initially even declared “Hezbollah equals Lebanon”, holds some risks for the party. Having believed to have won but this was myste- suggesting “Israel will not differentiate bet- framed itself as an apolitical resistance mo- riously overturned in the official results.20 ween…Lebanon and Hezbollah, and will vement that operates outside Lebanon’s In most districts however, alternative lists view Lebanon as responsible for any action corrupt political system, Hezbollah’s elec­ damaged each other as they dispersed from within its territory.”24 Lebanese poli- tion gains now push the party towards votes among several lists, usually failing ticians and media were quick to reject this taking more responsibility to tackle socio- to pass the threshold. The civil society ran notion25 but power has certainly shifted economic and infrastructure challenges.28 with 66 candidates – this could be seen as away from block, the Over the years, many parties have pro- an achievement in itself. The low turnout formerly strongest block in Parliament. mised major infrastructure improvements and manipulations led to a questionable and systemic reforms but Lebanon still legitimacy for some MPs: Eddy Demerjian Despite Saad Hariri’s losses, he is still the suffers from electricity shortages almost 30 won the Armenian Orthodox seat in Zahle strongest leader among Sunnis and was years after its Civil War. Another pressing with 77 votes in total, Haddad lost in Beirut instructed to form the next government issue is combating the widespread cor- by 108 votes to Antoine Pano’s 539 votes. again as Prime Minister. Similar to the ruption, one of the few hopes to help the West Beirut (Beirut II) has a Sunni majority outgoing coalition, the upcoming govern- catastrophic Lebanese economy. This issue (60%) and is a stronghold for Future Move- ment is expected to be a difficult balance was in the election programs of virtually all ment, however eight other lists went up to between most of Lebanon’s major political parties and is more pressing than ever, as challenge Hariri. This dispersion of votes, parties, many of them rivals.26 It will most LF leader Geagea remarked: particularly among Sunni and more secu- likely include the Sunni Future Movement; “I believe everyone has realized now lar voters is disadvantageous, granting the the Shia Hezbollah and Amal, LF and FPM that the ship might sink with everyone Hezbollah-backed list a surprise victory for the Christians and ’s PSP aboard.”29 of four seats although Shia are a minority for Druze. here (20%).21 Hariri’s block was expected So far, parties blamed their policy failures to lose seats to large or to rival The upcoming formation of a new govern- on rival camps blocking their efforts but Sunni groups. But with 15 seats lost in ment is expected to be difficult, despite now Hezbollah and their allies control total, the losses for Hariri were more pain- the gains made by the Hezbollah-FPM led enough seats to secure majorities on ful than expected, leaving them only 20 block. Lebanese politics are highly divided their projects. The fight against corrupti- seats. This demonstrates that the propor- on major positions such as their relation on however reaches into all fields of the tional system not only impacted the seat towards Syria or Hezbollah’s military wing. economy and politics and could alienate distribution on the intra-sectarian level There are now 14 parties represented in several key allies – especially Amal – if they but also within sects. Hariri was challenged Parliament (none has over 20 seats) and view reforms as a threat to their business from within the Sunni community, where alli­ ances­ have become frailer in recent and political interests. But failing to deliver rivals such as Fouad Makhzoumi and Najib years.27 While the general fault lines persist, solutions would not sit well with key de- Mikati’s Azm Movement won 5 seats.22 they have become less definitive. Hezbol- mographics such as the rising Shia middle The were able to almost lah and Future Movement are on different class. Marginalized in the 20th century, double their seats from eight to 15 seats, ends of the spectrum, as the rivalry of their Shia Lebanese have ascended politically picking up seats from the fellow Christian allies Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to and economically and now are more Kataeb and FPM (and in Baalbek-Hermel play out by proxy. However, their tradi- interested in rising living standards than one seat from Hezbollah). tional partners in the Lebanese political the liberation of Palestine and Syria.30 A system seem to grow increasingly tired of military confrontation with Israel could be The Hezbollah camp made considerable this rivalry and have other priorities. Some a way out of this dilemma but would bear gains, although they came less from Hez- have switched sides, while it was the rap- incredible risks for a Hezbollah that today bollah itself which gained only one new prochement between the Christian LF and has too much to lose to rush into another seat, bringing its total to 12. Rather, allies FPM that ended the Sunni-Shia deadlock war – particularly while still entangled in such as Speaker ’s Amal (3 new and enabled Aoun’s presidency in the first Syria and beyond. seats), smaller parties and pro-Hezbollah place. Lebanon’s politicians have demons­

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As the United States are increasing their Endnotes pressure against Iran and its allies,31 Hez- bollah is feeling the heat too. Nevertheless, 1) Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and restrictive measures, D9%84%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9 adopted on 18 October 2015, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ 22) Makhzoumi won one seat in Beirut II, Azm Move- Hezbollah is democratically elected and en/policies/sanctions/iran/jcpoa-restrictive-measures/ ment won 4 seats in Tripoli. Ministry of Interior, http:// therefore a legitimate part of the Lebane- 2) Registration was stopped in 2015, so the actual number is elections.gov.lb/getattachment/7cd8215c-5851-4f1a- b92b-aef1ae96d180/%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8% believed to be much higher than the official UNHCR number se government. The EU should critically B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%85%D8 (http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71) engage Hezbollah to limit its power – but %A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D8%A7%D- 3) Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region (Brussels II), 9%86%D9%8A%D9%87.aspx with the ultimate goal of strengthening http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international- 23) Qiblawi, Tamara: Hezbollah calls Lebanon election the Lebanese democracy, not breaking ministerial-meetings/2018/04/24-25/ gains ‘great victory’, in: CNN (07.05.18), https://edition.cnn. it. Any campaigns against the party must 4) Conférence économique pour le développement, par les com/2018/05/07/middleeast/lebanon-elections-intl/index.html 24) Reuters Staff: Israeli minister says „Lebanon equals Hez- not come at the cost of Lebanon itself: the réformes et avec les entreprises. The acronym was chosen in part to disassociate the conference from its previous three bollah“ after election, in: Reuters World News; https://www. reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-election-israel/israeli-minister- Lebanese system is not perfect but it is rounds Paris I to III) that did not hold up to expectations. https:// says-lebanon-equals-hezbollah-after-election-idUSKBN1I80FW reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/cedre-conf-rence-conomique- one of very few democratic systems in the (07.05.2018) Middle East, and its resilience to regional pour-le-d-veloppement-par-les-r-formes-et-avec-les 25) Sami Atallah: Calling into Question Hezbollah’s „Takeover“, in: 5) Blominvest Bank: Lebanon’s Gross Public Debt Ended 2017 at conflicts is worth saving. Tacit support for Featured Analysis, Lebanese Center for Policy Research; https:// $79.5B: http://blog.blominvestbank.com/24853/lebanons-gross- www.lcps-lebanon.org/featuredArticle.php?id=153 (May 2018) military campaigns or extremist groups to public-debt-ended-2017-79-5b/ 26) Perry, Tom: Lebanon’s Hariri upbeat after government talks, counterbalance Hezbollah could break the 6) IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2018): http://www.imf. rivalries surface, in: Reuters (28.05.18), https://www.reuters. org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ com/article/us-lebanon-politics/lebanons-hariri-upbeat-after- country – and open external or internal government-talks-rivalries-surface-idUSKCN1IT0Q2 ADVEC/WEOWORLD/LBN 27) Ezzedine/Uzelac: Lebanon’s elections. Whose victory? conflict would put over two million refu- 7) Kranenpohl, Uwe: Konkordanzdemokratie, Konsensusdemo- (16.05.18), https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west- gees as well as their Lebanese hosts on kratie, Verhandlungsdemokratie. Versuch einer terminologi- asia/nancy-ezzeddine-ana-uzelac/lebanon-s-elections-whose- the move towards Europe. Austria should schen und typologischen Strukturierung. In: Konkordanzdemo- victory continue aiding Lebanon by participating kratie. Ein Demokratietyp der Vergangenheit? Hrsg. von Stefan 28) Ezzedine/Uzelac: Whose victory Köppl u. Uwe Kranenpohl. Baden-Baden: Nomos 2012. p. 13–31 29) Perry/Bassam: Boosted by Lebanon vote, Geagea eyes Hez- in UNIFIL while supporting the security 8) The Règlement Organique reform of 1861 bollah and reform, in: Reuters (18.05.18), https://www.reuters. forces and a democratic political discourse, 9) For more on the municipal election of 2016, see AIES com/article/us-lebanon-election-geagea/boosted-by-lebanon- vote-geagea-eyes-hezbollah-and-reform-idUSKCN1IJ18T Fokus 04/2016, https://www.aies.at/download/2016/AIES- Austria and the EU continue to stabilize 30) Akoum, Caroline: Hezbollah Raises Portfolio Threshold Fokus-2016-04.pdf Lebanon. (21.05.18), https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1275226/ 10) Baumann, Hannes: Citizen Hariri. Lebanon’s Neoliberal hezbollah-raises-portfolios-threshold Reconstruction. London: Hurst & Co. 2016. p. 55 31) Naharnet Newsdesk: U.S. to Put ‘Unprecedented Pressure’ on The EU knows that good living conditions 11) Atallah, Sami: To be Successful, Proportional Representation Iran, Asks It to ‘Withdraw Forces’ from Syria (21.05.2018) for refugees and host communities are must be Accompanied by Party Reform, in: LCPS Featured Ana- http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/246453-u-s-to-put- unprecedented-pressure-on-iran-asks-it-to-withdraw-forces- vital; frameworks such as the Madad Fund lysis (May 2018), https://www.lcps-lebanon.org/featuredArticle. php?id=155 from-syria 32 from 2014 and now CEDRE ensure basic 12) Population numbers vary considerably: the UN puts the 32) The EU Regional Trust Fund in Response to the Syrian Crisis funding. But Lebanon’s economy will Lebanese population in 2017 at 6 million (http://data.un.org/en/ (Madad Fund) was set up in 2014 and has reached a volume not be recovered only through external iso/lb.html), the Lebanese Central Administration for Statistics’s of 1.5 billion USD to benefit refugees and host communities in Lebanon, Jordan and other countries. European Commission, funding or the eventual return of refu- most recent number from 2007 is 3.8 million people (http:// www.cas.gov.lb/index.php/key-indicators-en ). https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/neighbour- gees. Corruption and mismanagement are 13) Election Law 44, Article 45 hood/countries/syria/madad_en rooted much deeper in the system – and 14) Numbers by Ministry of Interior. This is also due to the fact 33) 18 out of top 20 Lebanese banks have major shareholders linked to political elites, see: Chaaban, Jad: I’ve got the Power. here Beirut needs European expertise but that the last elections were 9 years ago. 15) Study by LCPS and International Alert Mapping Connections between Lebanon’s Banking Sector and also the political pressure to push reforms 16) Again, numbers are highly uncertain but the diaspora is the Ruling Class (Oct 2016), in: Giza: Economic Research Forum forward. Instead of increasing neoliberal believed to be at least as large as the population in Lebanon 2016, http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/1059.pdf policies and social inequality, Lebanon can 17) http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2018/ learn from Austria, Germany and other EU Apr-27/447035-lebanese-diaspora-vote-marks-historic-first.ashx 18) http://nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/show-news/342298/ member states to adapt a social welfare 19) Lebanese Ministry of Interior: Results of the Par- system and strengthen its institutions. To liamentary Elections 2018, http://elections.gov. © Austria Institut für Europa- avoid an economic breakdown and pos- lb/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9 und Sicherheitspolitik, 2018 sible sovereign default, lending policies %8A%D8%A9/2018/%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8 %AC-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE% Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Nachdruck oder ver­ gleich­bare Verwendungen von Arbeiten des should be more conditional on austerity D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A Austria Instituts für Europa- und Sicherheitspolitik measures and combating corruption. In a 7%D9%8A%D8%AC-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8 (AIES) sind auch in Auszügen nur mit vorheriger country, where policy makers are linked %AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7% Genehmigung gestattet. Die im AIES-Fokus to bank ownership that profit from public D9%84%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9- veröffentlichten Beiträge geben ausschließlich die %D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85-2018.aspx debts,33 lenders should hold Lebanese po- Meinung der jeweiligen Autorinnen und Autoren 20) Akoum, Caroline: Accusations of Vote Rigging Emerge after wider. liticians more accountable for their socio- Lebanese Elections, in: Asharq Al-Awsat (08.05.2018), https:// economic decisions. In this regard, the EU aawsat.com/english/home/article/1261561/accusations-vote- Dr. Langweg 3, 2410 Hainburg/Donau could use conditionality tools to put more rigging-emerge-after-lebanese-elections Tel. +43 (1) 3583080 21) Annahar: Beirut II Results, https://www.annahar.com/elec- E-Mail: [email protected] pressure on the government to make it tions/district/12/%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A9- Website: www.aies.at move in the direction of reforming. %D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A7% Layout: Medienbüro Meyer

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