The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018: Much Ado About Nothing?
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Peter Nassif FOKUS | 4/2018 The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018: Much Ado about Nothing? On 6 May 2018, Lebanon went to the polls humanitarian support for Syrian refugees Political and Security Challenges to elect a new parliament for the first time as well as political support for neighboring in nine years. These elections stand out host countries.3 More important was the The parliament’s elections were postponed for the largest reform in voting laws in CEDRE4 donor conference that was held in 2013 and 2014 because of security Lebanese history, the influence of regional in Paris on 6 April, where 11 billion USD con cerns. During the time, the Syrian War tensions, but also a civil society challen- in credits and grants were pledged to Le- was raging in the Lebanese-Syrian border ging the old guard. After much anticipa- banon during election season – a country region, while the rise of ISIS and frequent tion, the general elections changed less with a gross public debt of almost 80 billi- car bombings in Hezbollah’s southern the political landscape than many people on USD5 and the fifth-highest debt-to-GDP Beirut neighborhoods led to a general had hoped. The results demonstrated that ratio worldwide.6 sense of insecurity. The Syrian government Lebanese voters and political parties are was losing ground and the Lebanese Shiite still far away from running and voting on A Peculiar Political System Hezbollah militia had joined the conflict in policy-based solutions to tackle the socio- 2012 to fight alongside the regime. It took economic challenges facing the country. Lebanon is a consociational democracy until mid-2014 for the Lebanese and Syrian that relies on a system of proportional army with Hezbollah to secure the border Since their last election in 2009, the par- sectarian representation.7 Based on a late region, although pockets of ISIS remained liament had extended its mandate three Ottoman power-sharing formula,8 each in Lebanon until summer 2017. times before agreeing to hold elections of the 18 acknowledged religious sects in in 2018. The delays were so extensive that Lebanon enjoy access to the government: Security is not the only concern in Leba- the last parliament was elected in a diffe- the 128 seats in Parliament are distributed non: the incapability of the Lebanese rent regional context – before the “Arab between sects in accordance with their government to agree on basic infrastruc- Spring” and the Syrian War. Revolutions size of population. After Lebanon’s inde- ture projects led to major crisis in the have reshaped Tunisia and Egypt, while pendence in 1943, a power-sharing deal summer of 2015. Beirut’s main landfill was Syria, Iraq and Yemen plunged into gru- based on the census of 1936 gave the lar- closed without having an alternative at esome wars and experienced the rise and gest sect (Christian Maronite) the Presiden- hand, because political actors could not fall of the Islamic State. In recent months, cy, the second largest group (Sunni Islam) agree on a plan that would benefit them the Trump administration, Israel and Saudi the Prime Minister, and the third (Shia Is- all. Organized waste management became Arabia have been increasingly escalating lam) the Speaker of Parliament. No official impossible for the next eight months, their campaign against Iran, with the US census has taken place since 1936, but the during which municipalities had to store withdrawing from the Iran Deal (JCPOA)1 Taif Agreement of 1989 that ended the Le- waste within the city, often in residential two days after the Lebanese elections. banese Civil War (1975-1990) strengthened neighborhoods – if garbage was collec- the role of the Prime Minister and Speaker ted at all. The notorious corruption and Internally, Lebanon is closely affected by of Parliament in relation to the Presidency. incompetence of the Lebanese political neighboring Syria where the war has pro- Most militias were disarmed after the war, system sparked protests in the summer of duced an outflow of 5.6 million refugees, but Syria continued to occupy Lebanon for 2015 that grew from the garbage crisis to with around 1.5 million refugees living in another 15 years, effectively controlling overall contempt for the government and Lebanon,2 rendering it the country with the country through political proxies and political system. The protest movement the highest count of refugees per capita. its military force. This included the support was able to mobilize and quickly organize Interestingly, the war and refugee crisis of Hezbollah, keeping the group in arms the civil society, surprising the established did not play a large role during election and shielded from accountability. Still, political class. This became apparent in the campaigns – partly because of the lack of virtually all major political parties today municipal elections of May 2016, where feasible solutions and partly because of a had a military wing during the war. After the civil society that formed in the previ- tacit agreement among parties to avoid commanding militias (or the army) during ous summer earned considerable votes in this path. An important aspect was the the war, today’s party leaders maintain several districts – particularly Beirut, where buildup of major international conferences their power through a system of patro- they won 40% on specific seats. Due to the where Lebanon wanted to give a positi- nage and sectarianism. majority-based electoral system at the time, ve image and avoid populist campaign the votes where not enough to win any rhetoric: On 24 and 25 April 2018, the seats, but they demonstrated that the civil Brussels II conference was held to secure society was a force to be reckoned with.9 1 The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018 FOKUS | 4/2018 The Lebanese Game of Chess interests. Instead, the move weakened running against them in other areas. the KSA’s position in Lebanon and with it Other implications include: First, indepen- At the same time, a political crisis had that of its ally Hariri, while Hezbollah and dents and popular candidates could no been looming: the Lebanese President’s President Aoun were praised for keeping longer rely on their own weight but rather term had run out in May 2014 with no calm, uniting the country and solving the had to attach their candidacy to strong successor in place and the Parliament’s crisis diplomatically. lists that expected to win seats. Second, two main blocks were in a deadlock over because the system no longer follows a whom to elect. It wasn’t until early 2016 Changing the Electoral Law winner-takes-all approach, the seats of that the rival Christian parties Lebanese each sect gained considerable weight, Forces (LF) and Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Before 2018, elections in Lebanon were even in areas that were traditionally seen Movement (FPM) came to an agreement based on an old majority-based electoral as strongholds of a particular sect and that secured the Presidency for Michel law that followed a winner-takes-all logic. In their respective parties. Third, the diaspora Aoun. Having initially pushed for a diffe- an attempt to avoid the deadlock produced vote opened the elections to a completely rent candidate, Saad Hariri, Sunni leader by previous elections, the law was changed new ecosystem of Lebanese nationals. and son of the late Prime Minister Rafik to a more proportional voting system. Since Lebanese citizens living abroad are Hariri, was forced to agree on the deal believed to amount to roughly the same that would also make him the new Prime The Lebanese parties primarily repre- size as inside Lebanon, this may have Minister. As such he led a government that sent religious sects and family relations, considerable impact if enough diaspo- included almost all major parties, inclu- although minor ideological differences ra Lebanese choose to take part in the ding Hezbollah –, which Hariri opposes on may still occur, particularly within the elections.12 a political and sectarian level. Amid a regi- sects. Hence, parties very rarely engage onal rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, their constituents on the level of ideology The 2018 Election Outcome Hezbollah enjoys the strong support of or political programs. The pronounced Iran, while Hariri is seen as Saudi Arabia’s sectarian identity of Lebanese voters and After nine years without elections, there man in Lebanon.10 In October 2016, a party loyalty is passed on within fami- was a general mood of excitement, and national agreement was reached when lies and over generations. Shifts in voter although the candidate registration Michel Aoun’s election ended a 29-month alignment are unlikely because parties was not cheap (ca. 4400€),13 close to a vacuum in the presidency. The new nati- focus on religious rhetoric, clientelism and thousand candidates signed up to run for onal unity government was finally able to family affiliations instead of a program- office, including a record number of 86 sign a series of pressing is sues into laws matic platform. This would make it nearly women (in 2009 only 12). For a parliament and completely overhaul the electoral law impossible for political parties to escape that had only four women – all represen- for parliamentary elections, which was an the deadlock in the political system by ting powerful men (the wife, daughter or outstanding issue regarding the political changing their programmatic orientation. sister of another politician), this could have process in Lebanon. Instead, the system itself needs to be chan- been an important step towards more ged, thus parties agreed on changing the gender balance. Furthermore, the large In late 2017 however, Lebanon was once voting system. amount of young and alternative candida- again reminded of how closely its fate is tes gave hope to the civil society and those tied to the regional rivalry between Saudi In 2017, a consensus was reached that demanding a change.