About the Authors

Mahmoud Hamad holds a joint appointment as an assistant professor of politics and international relations at both Drake University (USA) and Cairo University (Egypt). His teaching and research interests focus on Middle East politics, comparative judicial politics, civil–military relations, as well as religion and politics. His most recent publication is Egypt’s Litigious Transition: Judicial Intervention and the Muddied Road to Democracy (Atlantic Council, May 2013). He is the author of Generals and Judges in the Making of Modern Egypt (forthcoming).

Khalil al-Anani is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. He is an expert on Islamist movements, Egyptian politics, and democratization in the Middle East. He was a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, and a senior scholar at Al-Ahram Foundation in Cairo. He is the author of many books in both Arabic and English, including Unpacking the Muslim Brotherhood: Religion, Identity, and Politics (forthcoming).

Nathan J. Brown is a nonresident senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program. He is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, and a distinguished scholar and author of six well-received books on Arab politics. Brown brings his special expertise on Islamist movements, Palestinian politics, and Arab law and constitutionalism to the Endowment. Brown’s latest book, When Victory Is Not an Option: Islamist Movements and Semiauthoritarianism in the Arab World, was published by Cornell University Press in early 2012. His current work focuses on Islamist movements and their role in politics in the Arab world.

Mohamed Daadaoui is an associate professor of Political Science at Oklahoma City University. He is the author of Moroccan Monarchy and the Islamist Chal- lenge: Maintaining Makhzen Power (Palgrave, 2011). Daadaoui is author of a blog on Maghreb/North African politics called Maghreb Blog: http://maghreblog. blogspot.com.

Vincent Durac lectures in the School of Politics and International Relations in University College Dublin and is a visiting lecturer in Bethlehem University, Palestine. He is co-author of Civil Society and Democratization in the Arab World and has published articles in a number of journals including the British Journal 224 A BOUT THE A UTHORS of Middle Eastern Studies, Mediterranean Politics,andtheJournal of North African Studies.

Kevin Koehler is a postdoctoral fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College, London. His research focuses on different regime trajectories in the Arab Spring with special attention to political–military relations as well as party building and electoral politics.

Manal Omar serves as director of Iraq, Iran, and North Africa Programs at the Center for Conﬂict Management at USIP. Previously, she was regional program manager for the Middle East for Oxfam, Great Britain, where she responded to humanitarian crises in Palestine and Lebanon. Omar has extensive experience in the Middle East. She worked with the Women for Women International as the regional coordinator for Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sudan. Omar’s activities have been proﬁled by the Washington Times,theLos Angeles Times, the BBC, NPR, Glamour,theLondon Times,andNewsweek. Her articles and opinion pieces have appeared in the Guardian,theWashington Post, Azizah Magazine,andIslamica Magazine.

Hesham Sallam is a doctoral candidate in government at Georgetown University and co-editor of Jadaliyya ezine (www.Jadaliyya.com). He is currently a fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. Sallam is former program specialist at the US Institute of Peace. His research focuses on Islamist movements and the politics of economic reform in the Arab World. Sallam’s research has previously received the support of the Social Science Research Council and the US Institute of Peace. Past institutional afﬁl- iations include Middle East Institute, Asharq Al-Awsat, and the World Security Institute.

Kıvanç Ulusoy is an associate professor of Politics at the Istanbul University. He was previously a Fulbright Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School (2012– 2013) and Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence (2003–2004) and Fellow at the Madrid Diplomatic School (1996–1997). His areas of research include regime change and democratization, Turkish politics and Turkey-EU relations, and Spanish politics. One of his recent publications is “The European Impact on State-Religion Relations in Turkey: Political Islam, Alevis and Non-Muslim Minorities,” Australian Journal of Political Science, 46:3, (2011).

Reidar Visser is a research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. He holds a doctorate in middle-eastern studies from the University of Oxford. He specializes in the history of the state system of the modern Middle East, regionalist movements, the politics of city states, and historiography in politics. He is the author of Basra, The Failed Gulf State: Separatism and Nationalism in Southern Iraq (Lit-Verlag, 2005). A BOUT THE A UTHORS 225

Jana Warkotsch is a PhD researcher at the European University Institute in Florence. In her research she compares the dynamics of protest mobilization dur- ing the Arab Spring in Egypt and Tunisia from a historical political economy perspective.

Luciano Zaccara is a visiting assistant professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar; director at the Observatory on Politics and Elections in Arab and Muslim countries (OPEMAM), Spain; and honorary fellow at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, Exeter University, UK. He has a PhD in Arab and Islamic Studies, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Spain, and BA in Political Science, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina. References

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Abu–Ismail, Hazem Salah, 42 Morocco and, 89–94, 101 Abul Fetouh, Abdel Moneim, 42 PJD and, 101 Aden, 111, 115, 124 Tunisia and, 9–12, 26 Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 157, 162, Turkey and, 180–3 171–3 Assad, Bashar al, 209, 211 al–Adl wal Ihsane, 101–3 Assembly of Experts, 154–5, al–Anani, Khalil, 203–18, 223 157–62, 165 Al–Asala Party, 41, 49 Ataturkism, 190 Al–Awa, Mohamed Selim, 42 authoritarianism Al–Badawi, Al–Sayyid, 49 Arab Spring and, 5–8, 11, 91–3, Alevis, 186, 196 203–4, 217 Algeria, 89, 96, 183, 209–10 competitive authoritarian al–Hashemi, Tareq, 145–6, 151 regimes, 174 Ali, Khaled, 42 democratization and, 1, 3, 6–8, Allawi, Ayad, 137, 147, 150 11–14, 36, 204, 213 al–Nahda Party, 27 Egypt and, 36–8, 61–3 Al–Nour Party, 41, 49, 59 elections and, 37–8, 204, 206 Al–Qaeda, 139 hybrid regimes and, 37, 180–1 al–Samarraie, Ayyad, 143, 146 institutionalization and, 11–12 al–Senussi, Idris al–Mahdi, 70 Iran and, 153–6, 158, 173–4 al–Shura, Majlis, 115 Iraq and, 134–5 Al–Sisi, Abdel Fattah, 43, 46 Libya and, 85 Al–Tagammu Party, 41 Morocco and, 89–95, 99 Al–Wafd Party, 41, 49 public sphere and, 5 Al–Wasat Party, 41, 59 semi–authoritarianism, 158 Ammar, Rachid, 16, 211 Tunisia and, 24, 30 Arab League, 42 Turkey and, 180–2, 184–5, Arab Spring 187, 197 democratization and, 203, 205, 216 Yemen and, 117–18 economy and, 207 future of, 218 Ba’ath National Party, 117 Iran and, 171–4 basiji, 165 Iraq and, 146, 150 Ben Ali, 10, 14–19, 24–6, 29, 96, Islamists and, 214 121, 211 limitations of, 91–4 Benkirane, ‘Abdelilah, 100, 103 240 I NDEX

Bermeo, Nancy, 183 democratization bin Shamlan, Faisal, 115, 119–20 actor–oriented, 12 Boua’zizi, Mohammed, 104 Egypt and, 35–9, 46–63 Bourguiba, Habib, 211 elections and, 35–9, 46–58, 206 Bremer, Paul, 135–7 gradual, 12 Broad Fundamentalist Alliance (BFA), hybrid regimes and, 2 168–9 Iran and, 154, 158, 166, 174 Brown, Nathan J., 1–8, 223 Libya and, 84 Building and Development Party, 41 MENA region and, 11–12 Morocco and, 91 Carapico, Sheila, 110 third wave of, 11–12 Chalabi, Ahmad, 142 transition to, 12–13, 203–5, 210, Chebbi, Nejib, 21 213–14 civil society organizations (CSOs), 77, Tunisia and, 11 83–4 Turkey and, 180–6, 190–1, 194–8 clientelism, 11, 92–4, 166 Diamond, Larry, 37, 156, 213, 218 Diyanet, 185, 187 Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), 135–6 Douma, Ahmed, 61 Durac, Vincent, 109–28, 223–4 Combs–Schilling, Elaine, 98 Comoros, 209 Constitutional Union (UC), 101 Ecevit, Bülent, 189–90, 197 corruption Egypt elections and contingent consent, Egypt and, 59, 213, 216 51–8 Libya and, 72, 76, 86 elections and democratization Morocco and, 89–90, 96, 100–1, contingent consent and, 37 103, 105 democracy and, 36 Turkey and, 180–1, 191–3, elections as democracy, 46–51 195, 208 as vehicles for ejecting incumbent Yemen and, 118, 120 parties, 37–8 coups as vehicles for societal Arab monarchies and, 91 democratization, 38–9 coup–prooﬁng, 209–10 elections as democracy, 46–51 democratization and, 207–12 elections as vehicles for societal Egypt and, 43, 46, 59–60, 214 democratization, 61–2 Tunisia and, 29 incumbent ejection via elections, Turkey and, 179, 183, 188–94, 196 58–61 Yemen and, 110 January 25 Revolution, 35, 44, 56–7, 59–60, 214–15 Daadaoui, Mohamed, 89–105, 223 legacy of limited political Dahl, Robert, A., 36 contestation, 53–5 Demirel, Suleyman, 190, 197 overview of revolution, 35–6 Democratic Left Party (DSP), 179, political context of elections 190, 194 Al–Selmi document 40–1 Democratic Party (DP, Turkey), 187 constitutional crisis, 44–5 I NDEX 241

constitutional referendum elections, presidential aftermath, 45–6 Egypt, 4, 38–43, 46–50, 53, 58–61 legislative elections and Iran, 155–6, 158, 160–7, 171–4 aftermath, 41–2 Islamist parties and, 214 military and, 43–4 Tunisia, 22 Muslim Brotherhood and, 44 Yemen, 115–17, 119–20, presidential elections, 42–3 122–3, 127 referendum and March 30 Elham, G. Hossein, 171 constitutional declaration, Emirate of Cyrenaica, 70 39–40 Erbakan, Necmettin, 188, 190, political rules, 55–6 192–3, 195, 197 revolution and democracy, 56–8 Erdogan, Recep Tayyip, 183, 208 Egyptian Social Democratic Party, 41 Eta’at, Javad, 160 elections European Union (EU), 194–6 in Arab societies, 3–5 Executives of Construction Party, 167 authoritarianism and, 6–7, 37–8, 204, 206 Felicity Party (SP), 194 as catalysts of moderation, 182–3 Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), 41–2 contingent consent and, 37, 51–8 Free Egyptians Party, 41, 49 democracy and, 36, 46–51 Friaa, Ahmed, 15 democratic transition and, 204–6, 214–15, 218 Gathering of National Independents Egypt and, 35–63 (RNI), 101 ejecting incumbent parties, 37–8, gerrymandering, 100 58–61 Ghannouchi, Mohamed, 5–16, 218 GNC and, 76–9 Gramsci, Antonio, 98 Iran and, 153–69, 173–75 Grira, Ridha, 15 Iraq and, 133–51 Gul, Abdullah, 183 Libya and, 68–9, 71, 76–9, 85–7 Gulen movement, 197 Morocco and, 90, 98–105 Gulf Cooperation Council societal democratization and, 38–9, (GCC), 123 61–2 Tunisia and, 9–12, 14–15, 17–23, Haddad–Adel, Gholam Ali, 168, 171 26, 30 Hadi, Abd Rabbo Mansour, 109, 115, Turkey and, 179–96 123–4, 126 ugliness with, 6–8 Haji Youseﬁ, Amir Mohammad, 172 Yemen and, 109–21, 127 Hamdi, Hechmi, 27 elections, legislative Heper, Metin, 190 Arab Spring and, 212 High National Election Commission Egypt, 35, 40–2, 45–8, 50–1, (HNEC), 76–7, 84 53–6, 58, 61 Hizb al–Haqq, 117 Iran, 155–65, 167–9 Houthi movement, 118–22, 124 Islamist parties and, 188, 213 Hussein, Saddam, 118, 135 Morocco, 90, 98–100, 103–5 hybrid regimes, 37, 153–5, 174, Yemen, 112 180–2, 204, 206 242 I NDEX internally displaced persons PDP and, 21 (IDPs), 82 PJD and, 100–4 Iran Tunisia and, 15, 19–21, 27 consequences of factionalist party Turkey and, 180, 182–3, 187–9, system, 166–71 191–7 Council of Guardians role in Yemen and, 113, 121, 125, 127 political and electoral systems, see also Islah; Muslim Brotherhood 159–66 Israel, 119, 136, 173, 182 electoral turnout in, 165 impact of Arab Spring, 171–3 Jafar, Mustapha Ben, 22 list system in legislative Jannati, Ahmad, 163 elections, 168 January Front, 15 nature of regime type, 154–6 Jebali, Hamadi, 22 overview, 153 Jibril,Mahmoud,86 relevance of elections, 156–9 jihadists, 216 Iraq Johnsen, Gregory, 119–20 constitutional referendum of 2005, Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), 117–23 138–9 Jordan, 2–3, 7, 89, 92–3, 217 democratic past, 134–5 Justice and Development Party (AKP), electoral politics, 146–9 179, 183, 194–7, 208, 210 January 2005 elections, 135–8 Justice Party (AP), 187–8 overview, 133–4 parliamentary elections of Kani, Mahdavi, 159, 171 December 2005, 139–41 Karl, Terry Lynn, 14 parliamentary elections of March Karman, Tawwakol, 121 2010, 143–6 Karpat, Kemal, 189 provincial elections of January Karrubi, Mehdi, 162 2009, 141–3 Katouzian, Hamid Reza, 171 Iraqi Islamic Party, 137, 139 Kemal, Mustafa, 179–81, 183–6 Iraqiyya Party, 137–40, 144–7, see also Kemalism 149–51 Kemalism, 179–81, 183–91, 193–7, Islah, 113–21, 124, 128 208, 212 Islamic Awakening, 172–3 see also Kemal, Mustafa Islamic Bloc, 49 Khamenei, Ali, 155, 159, 162, 171–2 Islamic Republican Party, 167 Khatami, Mohammad, 157, 162, 174 Islamism Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah, 155, Al–Nahda and, 15, 19–20, 27 158–9, 167 Al–Selmi document and, 40 King Hamad, 91 democratic conundrum of, 214–18 King Hassan II, 96, 102 Egypt and, 40–5, 49, 52, 54, King Idris, 70–2 62, 213 King Mohammed VI, 91, 96, 102 Iraq and, 137–8, 143, 147 Koehler, Kevin, 9–30, 224 Libya and, 73, 80 Kurds, 135, 137–41, 143–51, 186, Morocco and, 4, 90, 93, 96, 190–1, 193–6 98–104 Kuwait, 3, 6–7, 217 I NDEX 243 laicism, 184–5 Mubarak, Hosni, 35–9, 42–4, 46–9, Lariyani, Ali, 171 51, 53–63, 121, 207, 210, Libya 212–13, 217 democratic transition, 75–6 multiparty systems, 3, 17–19, 37, 95, drafting of constitution, 79–81 183–5, 187, 196 GNC elections, 76–9 Muslim Brotherhood historical roots of political Al–Selmi document and, 40–1 environment, 69–70 constitutional crisis and, 44–6, independence and democratic 52–3 transition, 70–2 Egypt and, 29, 40–6, 58–62, 214, justice system and rule of law, 216–18 81–2 elections and, 41–3, 49–50, overview, 67–9 53–6, 119 political and civic culture, 84–6 Islah and, 117 Qaddaﬁ’s regime and changes in military and, 43–4 political culture, 72–5 Turkey and, 210 security environment, 82–4 Yemen and, 119 Lijphart, Arend, 133 Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 42, 50, 113, 117 Mahmoud, Abdel Meguid, 44–5 National Constituent Assembly Majles Shura–e Islami, 157 (NCA), 9, 20–4, 26 Maliki, Nuri al, 141–51 National Democratic Party (NDP), Mauretania, 209 35, 47, 54, 58 Melkert, Ad, 143 National Dialogue Conference MENA (Middle East and North (NDC), 124–8 Africa) region, 10–12, 19, 101, National Order Party (MNP), 188 104, 173 National Salvation Front (NSF), 52–3 Mestiri, Ahmed, 18 National Salvation Party (NSP), 188 Moin, Mostafa, 162 National Transitional Council (NTC), Morocco 75–8, 81, 83, 85 Arab Spring and exercise of National Trust Party (NTP), monarchical advantage, 96–8 168–70 legislative elections (2011), 99–100 Nationalist Action Party (MHP), 179, limitations of Arab Spring, 91–3 190, 194 monarchy, 93–6 Netherlands, 136 overview, 89–90 PJD’s electoral victory, 100–4 Obama, Barack, 150 Morsi, Mohamed, 35, 42–6, 52–3, O’Donnell, Guillermo, 13–14, 37, 56–63, 210, 213–14, 216, 218 204–5 Motahari, Ali, 171 OHAL, 190 Motherland Party (ANAP), 179, oil, 71–2, 79, 115, 120, 141, 188 190, 194 Omar, Jarallah, 117 Mousa, Amr, 42 Omar, Manal, 67–87, 224 Mousavi, Mir Hussein, 162, 172 Özal, Turgut, 190, 197 244 I NDEX

Parti Democrate Progressiste (PDP), secularism, 20, 22–3, 41, 62, 137–41, 19, 21, 25–6 143–4, 147, 149, 180–1, Party of Authenticity and Modernity, 183–97, 214 100–1 Schedler, Andreas, 37, 156–7 Party of Justice and Development Schumpeter, Joseph, 36 (PJD), 90, 93, 100–5 security, 25, 47–8, 51, 53, 60–1, 69, Party of Progress and Socialism 76, 79, 81–4, 86–7, 101, (PPS), 100 110–11, 118, 122–4, 140, 145, pasdaran, 165 159, 173, 190, 193–4 People’s Democratic Republic of Shafiq, Ahmed, 38, 42–3, 58–9 Yemen (PDRY). see Yemen Shahroudi, Mahmud Hashemi, 159 Political Parties’ Committee, 46–7 Sharia, 80, 102 Polyarchy (Schumpeter), 36 Shiites, 91, 135–45, 147–51, populism, 21, 27, 30, 184, 189, 186, 211 191, 208 Shura Council, 41, 45, 48, 50, Przeworski, Adam, 13, 37 56, 112 single–party systems, 6, 17, 22, 184, Qaddafi, Muammar, 67–9, 72–5, 79, 186–7, 196 81–2, 85–6 Social Democratic Movement Qalibaf, Bagher, 171 (MDS), 101 Qatar, 151 Stability Front (SF), 171 Quran, 187, 193 Suleiman, Omar, 39, 42 Sunnis, 91, 135, 137–41, 143–4, 147, Rafsanjani, Hashemi, 159 149, 151, 179, 184, 188–9, Rassemblement Constituionnel 196, 211 Democratique (RCD), 15–19 Supreme Commission for Elections Reformist Alliance (RA), 169–70 and Referenda (SCER), 112 Resistance Front (RF), 171 Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Revolution Continues Alliance (SCAF), 39–43, 46, 48, 50–1, (RCA), 50 54–5, 60, 210 Rezaei, Mohsen, 171 Syria, 89, 209–11 Risha, Ahmad Abu, 143 rituals of power, 94, 98, 105 Tachau, Frank, 186 Rustow, Dankwart A. Tamarod Campaign, 46, 57 Tantawi, Mohamed Hussein, 39, Sabahi, Hamdeen, 42 41, 43 Salafi, 20, 41–2, 49, 216 Tehrani, Morteza, 171 Salah, Ahmed Ben, 17 terrorism, 74, 123, 126, 139, 145, Salahaddin, 137–8, 149 151, 195 Salahdine, Mohamed, 94 True Path Party (DPY), 190 Salih, Ali Abdallah, 109–11, 114–28 Tun i s i a Sallam, Hesham, 35–63, 224 electoral politics and political Saudi Arabia, 96, 122–3, 126–7, regimes in MENA and, 10–14 143, 146 emergence of elite compromise in, Schmitter, Philippe, 13–14, 37, 204 14–24 I NDEX 245

institutionalizing uncertainty, Voice of the Nation (VN), 171 12–14 Volpi, Frederic, 181 overview of revolution, 9–10 patterns of electoral participation, Warkotsch, Jana, 9–30, 225 24–9 Waterbury, John, 93–4 reforming legal framework of Welfare Party (RP), 179, 183, political participation in, 190–3, 195 17–24 Wright, John, 71 socio–economic clusters of delegations, 27–8 Yassine, Abdessalam Turk ey Yazdi, Mohammad, 159, 163, 171 coup (1980), 189–91 Yazdi, Taqi Mesbah, 171 elections as catalyst of moderation, Yemen 182–3 civil war and aftermath, 114–15 hybrid regimes of Middle East, elections (1997), 115–16 180–2 GCC initiative and post–transition local and general elections, 191–6 political change, 123–7 overview, 179–80 Hirak, 120–1 nature of Kemalist regime, 183–5 Houthi movement, 118–19 post–war trajectory of Kemalist overview, 109 regime, 185–9 parliamentary elections (1993), transition to democracy, 183–96 112–14 Turkish Constitutional Court parliamentary elections (2003), (TCC), 212 117–18 see also Kemalism post–uniﬁcation electoral politics, 109–21 Ubbad, Ali Salih, 116 presidential election (1999), Ulusoy, Kivanç, 179–98, 224 116–17 UNAMI, 143–4 presidential election (2006), Union of Popular Forces (USFP), 119–20 99–101 2011 uprising, 121–3 United Fundamentalist Front (UFF), Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), 111, 168–9, 171 113–19

Velayati, Ali, 171 Zaccara, Luciano, 153–74, 225 Virtue Party (FP), 193 Zaydi, 110, 113, 119 Visser, Reidar, 133–51, 224 Zwai tribe, 75–7