Quo vadis - the readjustment of German multilateral relations in the 20s of the 21st century

Germany is facing a historic Nevertheless, in the shadow of this long election. After 16 years and thus four, period of stability, the fragmentation full legislatures, will no of the landscape has longer enter the race as the CDU / CSU's continued to develop. The appeal of top candidate. For the first time since Germany's two major parties, the CDU/ the end of the Second World War, there CSU and the SPD, has steadily declined. will be no office bonus in this election. For the first time since the Second World Ingo Leven The relevance of such an incumbency War, these two political forces in the Director Polling and bonus is illustrated by the fact that in centre have combined less than 60% of Strategy the 18 federal elections since 1953, the the members of the 16 German incumbent Chancellor has only been since 2019 (see Figure 1). Kantar Public Germany voted out of office three times (Kurz Georg Kiesinger in 1969, Helmut Kohl in 1998, Gerhard Schröder in 2005).

Upcoming federal elections between stability and change over time German States Members of Parliament: new currents becoming part of the political system

100

90 CD + SD AfD 80 NPD Liberals 70 Green Party 60 Left

50

40

30

20

10 German State Members of Parliament (in %) Parliament (in of Members State German

0

In two federal states, these two parties Whether the Greens will be able to from the centre of the party spectrum hold their own in the autumn elections do not currently have the Prime Minister remains to be seen, given the high ( of the Greens in volatility of the polls and the government Baden-Württemberg and policies that will have to be implemented of in ). For the federal by then - the focus will be on dealing election this autumn, the Greens are with the corona pandemic. In any case, a putting into the race turning point is looming in Germany:the as their top candidate for Chancellor, post-Merkel era. The central question whose party is now after her nomination is in which direction Germany foreign at least in a neck-and-neck race for policy will continue to develop. first place with the CDU/CSU in the Sunday polls. Only once in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany has a party other than the CDU/CSU and SPD nominated a candidate for Chancellor (FDP 2002 with ).

1 This study was conducted by Kantar Public on behalf of the German Marshall Fund as an online study in 11 countries. The sample consisted of n=1,000 people aged 18 and over in the UK, USA, France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Canada, Spain and the Netherlands. The fieldwork covered the period from 29 March to 13 April. 1 Germany: an anchor of future stability in multilateral cooperation?

Which country is most influential in Europe?

Studies such as «Transatlantic Trends The upcoming Bundestag elections 2021»1 by Kantar Public for the German can have a significant influence on this Marshall Fund make it clear that current positioning. Among the possible Germany has been able to assert itself coalition options, the so-called German as an influential anchor of stability in coalition2 of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP multilateral relations during Angela is most likely to stand for a "carry on" Merkel’s 16 years of continuity as Federal after the Merkel era. Out of the many Chancellor. Even if the population in other possible coalition options, the the countries participating in the study Left's participation in government in ascribes little influence to the European a Red-Red-Green alliance stands out. Union in the concert of the great powers With its fundamental criticism of NATO USA, Russia and China - China has as a sabre-rattling and war-mongering outstripped Russia in many countries - institution, it repeatedly calls this Germany is seen as playing a strong role form of transatlantic cooperation into within Europe. It is noteworthy that this question. Here it is open to what extent is especially the view of the populations the Left is prepared to give up such within the European countries radical positions for participation participating in this study. Here, the influence of Germany’s persistent in the federal government. After European and global policy is seen all, it is not to be expected that more than in the two North American the other two parties in such a countries, the USA and Canada (see government coalition will move Figure 2). towards this position in the coalition negotiations.

2 The name comes from the fact that the political colours of the parties involved in this coalition correspond to the colours of the national flag. 2 Germany’s role in the EU - engine of change, but what’s the destination?

In the current times, everything is In view of the fact that the vaccination At the same time, of course, vaccines focused on the fight against the rate in the EU, at almost 40%, is are still a scarce commodity worldwide coronavirus pandemic. In the process, currently more than three times and thus also nationally. Already at the much has been done primarily at higher than worldwide (see Figure 3), beginning of this year, when announcing the level of nation states - or even such accusations raise the question the necessary restrictive measures, the more regionally. Regional lockdown of whether it would really have been German federal government appealed measures, equipping national health sensible for the EU to strive for an even for perseverance, pointing out that the systems and national border closures more regional special path here and imminent vaccination campaign would with sometimes even more restrictions thus exacerbate the worldwide shortage bring about the big turnaround towards on movement regionally or even locally of vaccines. The guiding idea behind the more relief. However, the expectations on the ground are all issues that have joint procurement of vaccines at the that had been built up could not be rarely been addressed in a coordinated EU level was to avoid special national fulfilled in such a short time. With refe- way at the European level. A prominent approaches and thus a race for scarce rence to the EU as the body responsible counterexample is the EU-wide vaccines among the EU countries. for the purchase of vaccines, a culprit procurement of COVID-19 vaccines. was quickly found who could not be lo- The EU Commission has come under cated in the domestic political wrangling criticism for this, especially in Germany. of an election year in Germany. This Compared to countries such as Israel, has always been very convenient at the the USA or the UK, the vaccination point in Germany. At the same time, campaign in the EU countries has been national politicians from different par- slower to gain momentum due to the ties wanted to stage themselves as the still scarce vaccines. movers and shakers in the pandemic.

3 Thus, changes in the vaccination order In this context, it is remarkable that the This also has to do with the fact that in a are hastily announced, although not image of the EU among the German large number of countries, the popu- all people from particularly vulnerable population has not (yet) suffered any lations attest that there was solidarity groups have yet received a vaccination lasting damage. Half (50%) of Germans between the EU member states in offer. Or preliminary contracts for still rate the EU positively. This is not only dealing with the Corona pandemic. It Russian vaccines that have not yet slightly above the current EU average is remarkable that in Germany (35%) been approved are agreed with media (48%) but also slightly above the value as well as in France (34%) it is far less attention. The fact that none of this for Germany from last summer (47%). frequently assessed in this way. Against contributes to overcoming the Corona This image of the EU is very remarkable this background, it is not surprising that pandemic is, however, of secondary overall. Indeed, we have to look back almost three quarters of Europeans importance in such staging. more than a decade at the EU level to (74%) would like the EU to have more find a comparable number of people competences in future comparable That such a national discussion is who rated the EU so positively back then crises. In Germany, too, a broad majority not without consequences, however, (2009). (65%) sees it this way. becomes apparent when looking at the image of the EU. The current Eurobarometer survey3 conducted by Kantar Public for the EU in the 27 Member States shows that, across all 27 countries, only just under half of the population (48%) is aware of measures taken at EU level against the Corona pandemic. Given the strong public focus in Germany on the procurement of Corona vaccines at the EU level, it is not surprising that the figure in Germany is significantly higher at almost two- thirds (63%). To the same extent, it is not surprising that satisfaction with these measures among people who can identify measures at the EU level is significantly lower in Germany (35%) than the EU average (48%) due to the policy of blame shifting.

3 The survey of the current Eurobarometer was conducted in the period from 16 March to 12 April in the 27 member countries in compliance with national pandemic regulations. In eleven countries this was possible with personal interviews on site. In eleven countries, too, only online interviews formed the basis, while in five countries a mixed model had to be used. The results presented for the EU27 are based on a weighting that takes into account the population figures of the respective countries. 4 Acceleration of climate protection as an international policy issue in the 20s

One such next crisis could be the Among the following issues, which do you think are the three most important consequences of climate change that issues for transatlantic cooperation? will only become visible in the longer term as global warming increases.

A look at the Kantar Public study for the German Marshall Fund shows that even in times of the Corona pandemic, the populations of the countries involved attach great importance to combating global climate change. Only in Poland and Turkey does this task does not land among the top two priorities.

And the results of the new Eurobarometer also make it clear that besides public health care, which is at the centre of political spending in times of the Corona pandemic, it is above all support for the economy and the fight against climate change that set the political agenda.

This means that, unlike in the past, economic recovery needs do not lead to the postponement of environmental protection measures. With the basic idea of a Green Deal with the goal of making Europe the first continent to become climate neutral by 2050 and the integration of this goal into the reconstruction fund NextGenerationEU, which, with a volume of 750 billion euros as the largest economic stimulus package of all time in Europe, is to get the recovery of societies after the effects of the Corona pandemic underway, the foundations are to be laid for a future green, digital and resilient EU.

5 The current positioning of the German parties

A federal government led by the Greens Table 1: Status on the election programme for the upcoming Bundestag can also be expected to have its own elections of the parties currently represented in the Bundestag momentum. The fight against global climate change, under the slogan «protecting the basis of life”4, would Party Status Date Finalisation Comment certainly form a focal point of future German global and European policy CDU/CSU In Preparation tbd tbd and make Germany a driving force in the efforts to establish fundamental, effective and globally binding rules. SPD Published May 9th, 2021 Already done But it is not only relations with Poland, representative of other Eastern European countries that (have to) AfD Published May 20th, 2021 Already done rely even more on coal as an energy source, that controversial issues in the implementation of climate protection goals would occur for a FDP Decided May 17th, 2021 Already done Official federal government led by the Greens. publication Rejecting nuclear energy is one of the pending core contents of the German Greens, so France’s energy policy orientation with Left Draft February 8th, June 20th, a large share of nuclear energy in the 2021 2021 national energy mix could well lead to new tensions with its neighbour west of Greens Draft March 19th, June 13th, 2021 the Rhine. 2021 But this is not the only area of controversy. NATO’s 2% target is rejected by the Greens as an arbitrary With regard to relations with Russia, the As expected, the FDP’s election target5. However, this is not a rejection AfD formulates positions that clearly manifesto contains liberal counter- of multilateralism. Rather, the Greens go against the majority opinion of positions to such economic regulatory stand for a deepening of value- sanctioning Russia for, among other interventions. With freedom and oriented international cooperation. things, the occupation of Crimea, human rights worldwide14, however, Accordingly, their participation while at the same time appealing the Free Democrats also set the tone in government would stand for a to a significant part of the German for a value-oriented deepening of deepening in a variety of policy areas population with sentences like these: international cooperation. Within the (including human rights6, gender «The AfD advocates the lifting of framework of a German foreign, justice). EU sanctions and the expansion of security and development policy economic relations with Russia”9. from a single mould15, the FDP wants The right-wing AfD positions itself to ensure that Germany invests three as a counterpart to the Greens With this positioning towards per cent of its gross domestic product with a deep scepticism towards Russia, the AfD is also travelling in in international security (3D - defence, deepening international cooperation. the realms of the Left, which calls development and diplomacy) in the This positioning culminated in for the dissolution of NATO and its sense of a networked approach, thus the formulation of the campaign replacement by a collective security fulfilling the commitments it made in programme for the upcoming system with the participa-tion of Russia, NATO, consolidating its development Bundestag elections when, after a which has disarmament as a central policy and strengthening its diplomacy16. lively debate at the party conference, goal10. But overall, the differences in a majority decided that Germany views on international cooperation should leave the European Union predominate here. However, the left’s and consider the foundation of a anti-militarist stance is not a general new European economic and interest rejection of multilateralism. The community necessary7. A possible goal of implementing social justice withdrawal of Germany from the WHO worldwide11 is linked to a deepening is also anchored in the programme8. of international cooperation, including globalising labour law12 and a supply chain law worthy of its name13.

4 Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen (2021): Deutschland. Alles ist drin. Programmentwurf zur Bundestagswahl 2021. https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/2021_Wahlprogrammentwurf.pdf (Abruf am 31.05.2021): p. 7 5 ibid.: S. 134 6 ibid.; S. 123 7 Alternative für Deutschland (2021): Deutschland. Aber normal. Programm der Alternative für Deutschland für die Wahl zum 20. Deutschen Bundestag. https://cdn.afd.tools/wp-content/ uploads/sites/111/2021/05/2021-05-20-_-AfD-Bundestagswahlprogramm-2021.pdf (Abruf am 31.05.2021): S. 28 8 ibid.: S. 143 9 ibid. S. 63 10 DIE LINKE (2021): Zeit zu handeln: Für soziale Sicherheit, Frieden und Klimagerechtigkeit! Wahlprogramm der Partei DIE LINKE zur Bundestagswahl 2021. Vorgelegt von und . https://www.die-linke.de/fileadmin/download/wahlen2021/BTWP21_Entwurf_Vorsitzende.pdf (downloaded May 31st, 2021): p. 133 11 ibid.: p. 113 12 ibid.: p. 114 13 ibid.: S. 114 14 Die Freien Demokraten (2021): Nie gab es mehr zu tun. Wahlprogramm der Freien Demokraten. Programmentwurf der Freien Demokraten zur Bundestagswahl 2021. https://www.fdp.de/sites/ default/files/import/2021-04/110463-programmentwurf-nie-gab-es-mehr-zu-tun-2.pdf (downloaded May 31st, 2021) 15 ibid.: p. 57 16 ibid.: p. 57 6 The SPD’s election manifesto, on the Last but not least, the election This ultimately resulted in the contents other hand, reflects priorities of today’s programme of the CDU/CSU for for the election programme, which were EU policy. The historic decisions on the the Bundestag elections should be adopted by the CDU/CSU as a joint largest reconstruction programme in mentioned. It is remarkable that there election programme in July 2017. This the history of the European Union17 is still a blank space here. Even in the time, the CDU/CSU is later and only with NextGeneration EU is claimed by 2017 Bundestag election, the election since 30 March of this year have citizens the party, which sees it as a solidarity programme was only published in July of Germany been able to participate in achievement that mitigates the social and thus as the last programme of the the CDU campaign «Zusammenmachen consequences of the Corona crisis and parties represented in parliament. In - Dein Deutschland» (Making Together at the same time advances socio- the run-up to the last federal election, - Your Germany) at 11 thematic tables, ecological change and promotes six German congresses were held by from which content will find its way innovation18. The aim is to strengthen the party in the autumn of the previous into the election programme, which, solidarity19 and enable socio- year, the contents and results of which according to an announcement made ecological economic activity20 and were incorporated into the election at the beginning of the year, is to be expand democracy21. In this way it programme, as were a leading motion adopted by the CDU/CSU in July. should be possible that ultimately the EU of the CDU’s federal executive at its becomes the most modern democracy party congress in December of the and Europe also becomes a pioneer in previous year and statements by the climate protection22. party’s internal federal committees and networks.

17 Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (2021): Aus Respekt vor Deiner Zukunft. Das Zukunftsprogramm der SPD. Wofür wir stehen. Was uns antreibt. Wonach wir streben. https://www.spd. de/fileadmin/Dokumente/Beschluesse/Programm/SPD-Zukunftsprogramm.pdf (downloaded May 31st, 2021): p. 55 18 ibid.: p. 6 19 ibid.: p. 55 20 ibid.: p. 55 21 ibid. p. 58 22 ibid.: p. 6 7 Conclusion and outlook

In view of the many coalition options It is certain that the AfD will not form a But it is precisely such compromises that are currently being announced government. This leaves out in Germany that will be important. And not only in the run-up to the 2021 Bundestag the political force that positions itself for the Left; this ability to compromise elections, it is far too early to make in the field of foreign policy through will also be demanded of all political a final assessment of the extent to a fundamental scepticism regarding actors involved in any other government which a new federal government international cooperation and with its formation. Even if the Greens seem to could shift the balance in international pro-Russian and pro-Chinese stances have the largest arithmetical choice relations and in what direction. Rather, occupies a special role in the German of possible government constellations exciting coalition negotiations are party landscape. after the election, the main issue will in the offing in the run-up to the next be to bring together the substantive government formation in Germany. For the Left, too, the possibilities of ingredients of the different parties. While the formation of a coalition government participation are limited. If it is really possible to permanently comprising three parliamentary parties Whether it will even be enough to form "unite the best of both worlds" in failed spectacularly because of the a red-red-green federal government is government action, as the Austrian FDP after the last federal election, it not at all clear at the moment. At the government at the beginning of its term is currently impossible to tell whether same time, the extent to which the Left in office at least claimed to be able to two parliamentary parties will really be is prepared to make concessions from its do, entirely new political contents can able to form a government on the basis extreme positions on the dissolution of powerfully take shape here in Germany. of their vote shares and whether they NATO in the context of possible coalition Germany has the chance to lead the will be able to come together in terms negotiations is also open. way in the 2020s when new political of content. The CDU/CSU is currently alliances emerge from conservative, dominated by voices saying they do not liberal, ecological and social currents to want to play a junior role together with jointly tackle the political challenges the Greens. And the Greens must ask ahead. While there will certainly be themselves whether, beyond a junior role a focus on domestic issues after the in the coalition with the CDU/CSU, they Corona pandemic - buzzwords here are might not also be able to form other economic recovery and the fundamental three-party constellations under their digitalisation of society - one thing is leadership. certain about these possible alliances: The new German government will ensure that Germany will certainly remain an important partner in the context of international cooperation. With which direction of pull for which multilateral issues will largely depend on which parties the German citizens vote for on September 26th, 2021 and to what extent. 8