Quo vadis Germany - the readjustment of German multilateral relations in the 20s of the 21st century Germany is facing a historic Bundestag Nevertheless, in the shadow of this long election. After 16 years and thus four, period of stability, the fragmentation full legislatures, Angela Merkel will no of the German party landscape has longer enter the race as the CDU / CSU's continued to develop. The appeal of top candidate. For the first time since Germany's two major parties, the CDU/ the end of the Second World War, there CSU and the SPD, has steadily declined. will be no office bonus in this election. For the first time since the Second World Ingo Leven The relevance of such an incumbency War, these two political forces in the Director Polling and bonus is illustrated by the fact that in centre have combined less than 60% of Strategy the 18 federal elections since 1953, the the members of the 16 German Landtag incumbent Chancellor has only been since 2019 (see Figure 1). Kantar Public Germany voted out of office three times (Kurz Georg Kiesinger in 1969, Helmut Kohl in 1998, Gerhard Schröder in 2005). Upcoming federal elections between stability and change over time German States Members of Parliament: new currents becoming part of the political system 100 90 CD + SD AfD 80 NPD Liberals 70 Green Party 60 Left 50 40 30 20 10 German State Members of Parliament (in %) Parliament (in of Members State German 0 In two federal states, these two parties Whether the Greens will be able to from the centre of the party spectrum hold their own in the autumn elections do not currently have the Prime Minister remains to be seen, given the high (Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens in volatility of the polls and the government Baden-Württemberg and Bodo Ramelow policies that will have to be implemented of the Left in Thuringia). For the federal by then - the focus will be on dealing election this autumn, the Greens are with the corona pandemic. In any case, a putting Annalena Baerbock into the race turning point is looming in Germany:the as their top candidate for Chancellor, post-Merkel era. The central question whose party is now after her nomination is in which direction Germany foreign at least in a neck-and-neck race for policy will continue to develop. first place with the CDU/CSU in the Sunday polls. Only once in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany has a party other than the CDU/CSU and SPD nominated a candidate for Chancellor (FDP 2002 with Guido Westerwelle). 1 This study was conducted by Kantar Public on behalf of the German Marshall Fund as an online study in 11 countries. The sample consisted of n=1,000 people aged 18 and over in the UK, USA, France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Canada, Spain and the Netherlands. The fieldwork covered the period from 29 March to 13 April. 1 Germany: an anchor of future stability in multilateral cooperation? Which country is most influential in Europe? Studies such as «Transatlantic Trends The upcoming Bundestag elections 2021»1 by Kantar Public for the German can have a significant influence on this Marshall Fund make it clear that current positioning. Among the possible Germany has been able to assert itself coalition options, the so-called German as an influential anchor of stability in coalition2 of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP multilateral relations during Angela is most likely to stand for a "carry on" Merkel’s 16 years of continuity as Federal after the Merkel era. Out of the many Chancellor. Even if the population in other possible coalition options, the the countries participating in the study Left's participation in government in ascribes little influence to the European a Red-Red-Green alliance stands out. Union in the concert of the great powers With its fundamental criticism of NATO USA, Russia and China - China has as a sabre-rattling and war-mongering outstripped Russia in many countries - institution, it repeatedly calls this Germany is seen as playing a strong role form of transatlantic cooperation into within Europe. It is noteworthy that this question. Here it is open to what extent is especially the view of the populations the Left is prepared to give up such within the European countries radical positions for participation participating in this study. Here, the influence of Germany’s persistent in the federal government. After European and global policy is seen all, it is not to be expected that more than in the two North American the other two parties in such a countries, the USA and Canada (see government coalition will move Figure 2). towards this position in the coalition negotiations. 2 The name comes from the fact that the political colours of the parties involved in this coalition correspond to the colours of the national flag. 2 Germany’s role in the EU - engine of change, but what’s the destination? In the current times, everything is In view of the fact that the vaccination At the same time, of course, vaccines focused on the fight against the rate in the EU, at almost 40%, is are still a scarce commodity worldwide coronavirus pandemic. In the process, currently more than three times and thus also nationally. Already at the much has been done primarily at higher than worldwide (see Figure 3), beginning of this year, when announcing the level of nation states - or even such accusations raise the question the necessary restrictive measures, the more regionally. Regional lockdown of whether it would really have been German federal government appealed measures, equipping national health sensible for the EU to strive for an even for perseverance, pointing out that the systems and national border closures more regional special path here and imminent vaccination campaign would with sometimes even more restrictions thus exacerbate the worldwide shortage bring about the big turnaround towards on movement regionally or even locally of vaccines. The guiding idea behind the more relief. However, the expectations on the ground are all issues that have joint procurement of vaccines at the that had been built up could not be rarely been addressed in a coordinated EU level was to avoid special national fulfilled in such a short time. With refe- way at the European level. A prominent approaches and thus a race for scarce rence to the EU as the body responsible counterexample is the EU-wide vaccines among the EU countries. for the purchase of vaccines, a culprit procurement of COVID-19 vaccines. was quickly found who could not be lo- The EU Commission has come under cated in the domestic political wrangling criticism for this, especially in Germany. of an election year in Germany. This Compared to countries such as Israel, has always been very convenient at the the USA or the UK, the vaccination point in Germany. At the same time, campaign in the EU countries has been national politicians from different par- slower to gain momentum due to the ties wanted to stage themselves as the still scarce vaccines. movers and shakers in the pandemic. 3 Thus, changes in the vaccination order In this context, it is remarkable that the This also has to do with the fact that in a are hastily announced, although not image of the EU among the German large number of countries, the popu- all people from particularly vulnerable population has not (yet) suffered any lations attest that there was solidarity groups have yet received a vaccination lasting damage. Half (50%) of Germans between the EU member states in offer. Or preliminary contracts for still rate the EU positively. This is not only dealing with the Corona pandemic. It Russian vaccines that have not yet slightly above the current EU average is remarkable that in Germany (35%) been approved are agreed with media (48%) but also slightly above the value as well as in France (34%) it is far less attention. The fact that none of this for Germany from last summer (47%). frequently assessed in this way. Against contributes to overcoming the Corona This image of the EU is very remarkable this background, it is not surprising that pandemic is, however, of secondary overall. Indeed, we have to look back almost three quarters of Europeans importance in such staging. more than a decade at the EU level to (74%) would like the EU to have more find a comparable number of people competences in future comparable That such a national discussion is who rated the EU so positively back then crises. In Germany, too, a broad majority not without consequences, however, (2009). (65%) sees it this way. becomes apparent when looking at the image of the EU. The current Eurobarometer survey3 conducted by Kantar Public for the EU in the 27 Member States shows that, across all 27 countries, only just under half of the population (48%) is aware of measures taken at EU level against the Corona pandemic. Given the strong public focus in Germany on the procurement of Corona vaccines at the EU level, it is not surprising that the figure in Germany is significantly higher at almost two- thirds (63%). To the same extent, it is not surprising that satisfaction with these measures among people who can identify measures at the EU level is significantly lower in Germany (35%) than the EU average (48%) due to the policy of blame shifting. 3 The survey of the current Eurobarometer was conducted in the period from 16 March to 12 April in the 27 member countries in compliance with national pandemic regulations.