AY 2014/2017 Caged Windows of Opportunity for the Re
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GRAN SASSO SCIENCE INSTITUTE Urban Studies Doctoral Programme Cycle XXX – AY 2014/2017 Caged windows of opportunity for the reduction of “natural risks”: urban planning and governance between disasters and resilience in Italian cities PHD CANDIDATE Grazia Di Giovanni PhD Thesis submitted November 18, 2018 2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The choice of dedicating my Ph.D. research to nature-related risks is very personal. Before being admitted to the doctoral program in Urban Studies at GSSI, I took part in a large three-years research of the Department of Architecture and Design of Sapienza University (Rome) about post-earthquake reconstruction in Abruzzo. Such experience was so professionally and emotionally involving that I decided to bring forward my interests and try to give my contribution, focusing my Ph.D. path on studying the challenges of planners, administrators and policymakers addressing nature-related risks in a fragile country like Italy. I am an urban planner, trained at Sapienza faculty of Architecture: the multidisciplinary and international nature of GSSI Urban Studies Program allowed me to enlarge my knowledge and perspectives in the realm of social sciences, thinking “out of the box” of my previous education. In the same time, my personal technical background has guided my motivation and my research approach: very problem-oriented and context-dependent, focused on the role of research in “bridging” between issues, practices and policies, going beyond outdated boundaries and certainties. So many must be thanked, starting from my advisors Alessandro Coppola (GSSI, L’Aquila), Chris Zevenbergen (IHE, Delft) and Lorenzo Chelleri (UIC, Barcelona), who were my fundamental reference points for the development of this research. Lorenzo was the first at GSSI who “kicked” me out of my comfort zone, enlarging my research interests (through legendary blackboards), encouraging me to publish. Chris welcomed me at IHE, sharing his international experience and inspiring perspectives which I embraced for looking differently at my fields of research and therefore at the Italian context. Lastly, and especially: without Alessandro’s insight and guide – and irony! – this thesis would have never seen the light of day! I’m sincerely grateful. GSSI has been a welcoming environment for me: I thank the many post-doc researchers and professors that supported my work, scientifically and personally, and the ever-smiling GSSI staff. My sincere gratitude goes also to all the people interviewed for this thesis: with them, I could “break the surface” of these topics and challenge my assumptions. I thank all my family and relatives – my parents first – and my long-date friends who always believed I could do it and supported me at distance, especially Anna, Rossana, Martina, Isabella, Ilaria, Maurizio and all Musaica Band. In L’Aquila I found another home, thanks to the people I met here – particularly Chiara, Dicle, Joanne, Lucilla, Martina, Myrto and Valerio (my L’Aquila Cicerone!) – and all my Ph.D. cohort. An extraordinary thank you is dedicated to my friends&colleagues Angela, Eirini, Marco, Panos and Valeria who truly became my “Made in AQ Family” together with the mountains and the cranes that draw L’Aquila’s skyline, silent companions of my wanderings in the city. To Roberto, to whom I dedicate this work (borrowing from Eugenio Montale): Scendo milioni di scale dandoti il braccio non già perché con quattr'occhi forse si vede di più. Con te le scendo perché so che di noi due le sole vere pupille, sebbene tanto offuscate, sono le tue. 3 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS p. 9 ________________ LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS AND ITALIAN TERMS p. 11 ________________ LIST OF FIGURES p. 15 ________________ LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHS p. 17 ________________ ABSTRACT p. 19 ________________ INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND: “NATURAL” RISKS, DISASTERS, AND THE CITY p. 19 Natural phenomena and anthropic dynamics No “act of God” Urban disasters and urban resilience Disasters and windows of opportunity THIS RESEARCH p. 22 Research design and aims Geographical focus 5 ________________ PART I. NATURAL RISK, HUMAN DISASTERS p. 25 ________________ CHAPTER 1 Across the literature 1.1 NATURE-RELATED RISKS p. 25 1.2 RESILIENCE p. 30 1.3 URBAN PLANNING AND GOVERNANCE FOR RESILENCE AND RISK REDUCTION p. 34 1.4 THE SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE p. 36 p. 41 ________________ CHAPTER 2 Theoretical Framework and Methodology 2.1 DEFINING A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK p. 41 Building resilience through the disaster cycle Windows of opportunity and time compression 2.2 METHODOLOGY p. 49 ________________ PART II. EXPLORING RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION: THE ITALIAN CASE(S) p. 51 ________________ CHAPTER 3 Fragile Italy 3.1 THE SEISMIC AND HYDROGEOLOGICAL RISKS p. 52 3.2 GOVERNING RISK REDUCTION: BETWEEN REACTIVE APPROACHESAND INNOVATIONS p. 57 The normative evolution ItaliaSicura and Casa Italia: national scale attempts of innovation (with an uncertain future?) 6 3.3 DISCUSSING ITALY: MISSING ISSUES (MORE THAN MISSING KNOWLEDGE) p. 64 The urban scale: the uncertain balance between laws, data and planning Rooted in reactive approaches From chronical delays towards empowering proactive approaches p. 71 ________________ CHAPTER 4 Genoa and the flood 4.1 EVER AT RISK p. 72 The flood risk governance 4.2 BISAGNO AND THE FLOODS p. 80 The urban risk in Bisagno valley One century of studies and projects The 2011 flood 4.3 “AFTER-THE-FLOOD(S)” PROJECT HISTORY p. 94 The new weather alert system 4.4 DISCUSSING GENOA: A HISTORY OF ROUND-TRIPS BETWEEN PROJECTS, STRATEGIES AND FUNDS p. 100 Reducing hazard or reducing exposure and vulnerabilities? The praxis of reactive approaches to risk reduction Accumulated delay, windows of opportunity, and technical-political gaps: “as it was, where it was”? p. 107 ________________ CHAPTER 5 L’Aquila and the earthquake 5.1 A HISTORY OF RECONSTRUCTIONS (AND PLANNING EFFORTS) p. 108 The seismic risk The planning scenario 5.2 THE 2009 EARTHQUAKE p. 112 A destroyed city, in a Seismic Crater The emergency 5.3 SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE RECONSTRUCTION: THE CITY AND REGIONAL SCALES p. 118 A new institutional framework Planning after the disaster #1: the Reconstruction Plans and the Causality Nexus Planning after the disaster #2: looking at L’Aquila Town Plan(s) 7 5.4 LOOKING INSIDE THE WORKING SITES: THE BUILDING SCALE p. 125 Building Units and Building Aggregates “Com’era Dov’era” by Law? 5.5 DISCUSSING L’AQUILA: A CAGED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY p. 137 The inconceivable challenge between restoration and transformation #1: the urban scale The inconceivable challenge between restoration and transformation #2: the building scale, the seismic risk and the reconstruction funds The time delay: the permanency of temporary solutions, while postponing long-term scenarios Changing institutional frameworks p. 147 ________________ CHAPTER 6 Discussion 6.1 THE UNDERESTIMATED ESSENTIALS: ADDRESSING HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITIES p. 147 6.2 WAITING FOR THE-DAY-AFTER: REACTIVE AND PROACTIVE APPROACHES TO RISK REDUCTION (LOOKING FOR RESILIENCE) p. 149 6.3 LOOKING CLOSELY: THE LEGACY OF THE PAST QUESTIONS THE POST-DISASTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY p. 154 The norms, the plans, the projects: missing ordinary design 6.4 BUILDING RESILIENCE: RISK REDUCTION THROUGH PLANNING, GOVERNANCE AND THE SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE p. 157 Planning, and Civil Protection Governance and the Science-Policy interface: data and actors p. 163 ________________ FINAL REMARKS: A “REVISED” DISASTER CYCLE IN THE LIGHT OF THE “WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY” CONCEPT p. 168 ________________ APPENDIX: NOTES ABOUT NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION p. 177 ________________ BIBLIOGRAPHY 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS AND ITALIAN TERMS ________________ Autorità di Bacino River Basin Authorities BwN “Building with Nature” (Interreg Program) Casa Italia National Department for the development, optimization and integration of tools for the care and enhancement of the country’s territory, urban areas and housing heritage, also addressing the safety- level and energy efficiency of the building stock Com’era dov’era “As it was, where it was” Comunità Montane Unions of mountain municipalities D. Decree DCDR. Decree of the Commissioner of the Reconstruction DLgs. Legislative Decree DM. Ministerial Decree DPCM. Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers Demanio Idrico Water courses of state property Frazioni Hamlets ItaliaSicura Mission Structure against hydrogeological instability and for the development of water infrastructures L. Law LC. Constitutional Law LR. Regional Law NBS Nature-based solutions 9 OCDPC. Ordinance of the Chief of the National Department of Civil Protection OPCM. Ordinance of the President of the Council of Ministers Perimetrazione/i perimeter/s of the Reconstruction plans Piani di Bacino Basin Management Plans Protocolli d’Intesa Public interinstitutional agreements RD. Royal Decree 10 LIST OF FIGURES ________________ CHAPTER 1 Across the literature p. 28, FIGURE 1 – The disaster management cycle. Source: Alexander (2000, p. 3), as cited by Paul (2011, p. 158). p. 31, FIGURE 2 – Literature map and conceptual network of research about urban resilience. Arrows indicate the principal connections; grey lines draft the secondary relations. Key references for each topic are listed. Elaboration of the author. p. 37, FIGURE 3 – Behavioural (a)symmetries for knowledge transfer. Adaptation of the author from Wehn and Montalvo (2018, p. 60). _______________ CHAPTER 2 Theoretical Framework and Methodology p. 42, FIGURE 4 – The disaster cycle as interpreted by the author. p. 44, FIGURE 5 – Risk (R), Shock Event (E) and Recovery (Rec) as idealised by the author according to the disaster cycle in conditions of recurrent risks. p. 45, FIGURE 6 – Event-related policy learning. Adaptation of the author from Birkland’s model (2006, p. 18). p. 48, FIGURE 7 – The knowledge-policy interface adapted to the disaster cycle. Elaboration of the author. ________________ CHAPTER 3 Fragile Italy p. 51, FIGURE 8 – Cover of Issue 48 of Urbanistica (journal of the National Istitute for Urban Planning INU), edged in black as symbol of mourning for the disasters occurred in Agrigento, Florence and Venice in 1966.