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The Future of the Drone Economy

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The Future of the Drone Economy The Future of the Drone Economy A comprehensive analysis of the economic potential, market opportunities, and strategic considerations in the drone economy A Report From Levitate Capital 1 Disclaimer The information contained herein is intended for general informational purposes only, does not take into account the reader’s specific circumstances, and may not reflect the latest developments. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources, which although believed to be accurate, has not been independently verified by Levitate Capital. Further, certain information (including forward-looking statements and economic and market information) has been obtained from published sources and/or prepared by third parties and in certain cases has not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Levitate Capital does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Levitate Capital does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Levitate Capital LLC disclaims, to the fullest extent, any liability for the accuracy and completeness of the information in this document and for any acts and omissions made on such information. Levitate Capital has invested in a few companies mentioned in this paper, including but not limited to: Dedrone, Elroy Air, Matternet, Shield AI, Skydio, Skyports, and Volocopter. 2 Executive Summary $ Billions 90 40 15 2020 2025 2030 Global Market Fastest Growth The global drone Enterprise will economy will grow remain the fastest from $15B to $90B growing segment by 2030 until 2025. Logistics will become the fastest after 2025 Largest Segment Largest Region Defense will Asia-Pacific will remain the largest remain the largest segment until non-defense 2024. Enterprise market through will become the 2030 largest after 2024 3 Contents Executive Summary 2 At a Glance 5 Purpose 7 Timelines 8 Introduction 10 1 Defense 11 1.1 Large Drones 14 1.2 Micro Drones 18 1.3 Defense Counter-Drone 22 2 Enterprise 31 2.1 Construction 40 2.2 Built Inspection 47 2.3 Agriculture 57 2.4 Enterprise Counter-Drone 65 4 2.5 Oil & Gas 72 2.6 Real Estate 79 2.7 Utilities 83 2.8 Mining 93 2.9 Professional Videography 97 3 Consumer 104 4 Public Safety 112 4.1 Law Enforcement 114 4.2 Firefighting 121 5 Logistics 125 6 Passenger Transportation 138 7 Conclusion 150 8 About Us 157 9 Acknowledgements 158 10 Appendix 159 5 Market Forecast at a Glance Defense Enterprise Consumer Market 29 Size $ Billion 17 16 11 8 5 3 3 4 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 Public Safety Logistics Passenger Market 33 Size $ Billion 3 5 3 2 0.7 <0.1 <0.1 0.1 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 6 Geography Forecast at a Glance The U.S. will remain the largest market for aerial drones when defense spending is included 7 Purpose This report addresses three topics to help stakeholders navigate uncertainty in the drone economy: Value of the drone economy Pragmatic forecast and analysis of the market for drones by segments that show the most economic potential 1 Factors influencing the drone economy Overview of the uses of drone technology by industry, forces that define how the market evolves, and trends that provide growth opportunities 2 Strategies for success in the drone economy Guidance on how drone economy stakeholders can create or capture value 3 8 Regulatory Timeline This report assumes a steady regulatory progression from the Federal Aviation Administration* August: Released October: Launched June: Announced Part 135 guidelines for Tactical UAS Integration Pilot certification to allow BVLOS** waivers to enable Program to test BVLOS BVLOS flights over people public safety agencies to operations with industry and at night operate BVLOS flights in emergencies 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 August: Released September: Rolled October: Granted UPS January: Required ADS-B Part 107 to enable out LAANC to enable on all aircraft within 30 commercial drone on-demand drone flight Flight Forward first miles of major airports operations approvals basic Part 135 operation certificate enabling BVLOS deliveries with an unlimited number of drone pilots Roll out standards for drone Establish airworthiness Establish guidelines integration into national airspace standards for drones of for BVLOS operations to allow interactions with certain mass and without a waiver to controllers and crewed aircraft capabilities to operate long allow long-range and distance under FAA rules urban applications 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026+ Roll out requirements Approve commercial drone Establish guidelines Begin electric propulsion for autonomous flight for remote ID flights above 400 ft to and airframe certifications allow long-distance transit to enable repetitive for human transport surveying missions operations without a pilot *Regulatory references and assumptions in this report centers around the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) because of the agency’s outsized influence on global aviation safety regulations. **Acronyms and key terms listed throughout this report are defined in the appendix section 9 Technology Development Timeline This report assumes continuous development in drone aircraft technology Ubiquitous and improved autonomous flight for system Build out of distribution failure responses, dynamic hubs to load and receive routing, and human and goods from drones machine handoffs 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Initial introductions of Battery energy density 5G enterprise drones Roll out of UTM solutions of 400 Wh/kg and integration with crewed air traffic control Battery energy density First commercial operations of of 500 Wh/kg passenger eVTOLs 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Initial build-out of vertiport network infrastructure for transporting people and cargo 10 Introduction Stakeholders—government officials, regulators, drone companies, corporate adopters, and investors—must understand how the drone landscape is evolving if they want to expand the current uses of the technology and create and capture additional value. To date, many market forecasts for price. The history of most emerging drones have been overly bullish; technologies suggests that this lack of moreover, many predictions of drones' differentiation is unsustainable. Prices transformation of our skies have been will fall, margins will compress, and the overhyped. The economic opportunity industry will consolidate behind those for drone technology is large, but companies that provide the most stakeholders must consider the tethers innovative, sticky, and value-added of regulatory uncertainty, technological products and services. barriers, and community acceptance that ground them. This report identifies the challenges drones are solving, highlights The still nascent, $15 billion global opportunities and roadblocks affecting drone economy has the potential to their adoption, and forecasts their more than double in the next five years. economic potential. The report also At present, hundreds of small and provides a pragmatic analysis of how to medium-sized drone companies are strategize in the drone economy, employ competing without sufficient drones effectively, and invest in drone differentiation in their offerings and technologies. Image from: FLIR; Black Hornet 11 1 Defense Market Size Year 2020 2025 2030 Progressive 23.0 14 $ 14.0 Billion 17.0 Base 11.5 11.0 Conservative 8.1 9.0 12 1 Defense As a result of growth in worldwide defense spending and the race to develop air superiority, the defense sector will remain the largest market and source of innovation for drones over the next four years. Uncrewed aerial vehicles have reshaped The growth in U.S. drone spending modern warfare by allowing militaries to corresponds with the migration of engage enemies precisely and gather artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics intelligence without endangering the from Silicon Valley into the defense lives of their solders. The U.S. sector. Over the next decade, AI will add Department of Defense (DoD) has been new functionality to legacy platforms the primary customer for multimillion- and enable humans to use robotic dollar drones, and continued U.S. systems to enhance troop safety and defense spending will account for decision making. Future DoD spending roughly 40% of the entire drone market will eventually fund fleets of in 2020. autonomous assets across all branches of the military. Image from: Shield AI; Nova 2 13 1 Defense U.S. military spending on autonomous systems is growing. From reconnaissance to weapon and R&D is likely to increase over the delivery, the future of military aircraft next decade, despite the ongoing wind- will be increasingly autonomous. U.S. down of the MQ-9 Reaper and defense spending on drone procurement retirement of the MQ-1 Predator fleets. U.S. defense spending on autonomous systems has increased by an average of 7.6% per year. Procurement spending on uncrewed systems has grown by 70% over the past six years, from $5.4 billion in FY2013 to $9.1 billion in FY2020. 1 Source: Wall Street Journal $ Billions 10 8 6 4 2 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Image from: Army Times; MQ-9 Reaper 14 1.1 Defense: Large Drones Amid rising defense budgets, U.S. drone manufacturers face strong competition in the “large drone” market from companies in China and Israel. The United States is not the only nation (MALE) drones, major drone providers that is increasing defense spending. from China and Israel have increased According to the Stockholm the manufacture and export of defense International Peace Research Institute drones for foreign and domestic (SIPRI), military expenditures are on militaries. The Missile Technology the rise around the globe.2 Control Regime (MTCR) – formed in 1987 to limit the proliferation of missile Although the U.S. has the largest fleet of technology – has been interpreted as high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) limiting the export of MALE and HALE and medium-altitude, long-endurance U.S.
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