Tijuana & :

Lower Country Risk

& Local Security Successes

November 2011

Lowering Competitive Risks – Locating in

Deciding where to establish your company internationally should always include an objective analysis of various risks – using facts, independent assessments, and the real experiences of business visitors, investors, and international officials to a region – not sensational hearsay or questionable media reports.

Tijuana – only minutes from Downtown , and the “The level of security second-largest city on the West Coast of North America coordination among federal, (with nearly 1.7 million residents) is the focus of this state and municipal analysis. The goal: to provide some fact-based context authorities in Baja has been about this major metropolitan area to help potential impressive, as has been investors understand why – in 2011 – Tijuana is still cooperation with U.S. Mexico’s leading city for nearshore operations, with over counterparts.”2 560 maquiladora (IMMEX) manufacturing companies1. — U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Also critical: to highlight the significant progress that Anthony Wayne, Sept. 2011 Tijuana and have made in addressing public security challenges – with success that even U.S. officials (like new U.S. Ambassdor Anthony Wayne, quoted at right2) and some media now acknowledge.

Baja California & Tijuana Rebounding

Independent data collected by Reforma (one of Mexico’s major newspapers) and analyzed by the University of San Diego’s Trans-Border Institute (TBI), shows that Baja California has achieved major security improvements throughout 2011. As seen in TBI’s map data at right, from January to August of 2011 the vast majority of security incidents and violence in Mexico (dark blue) now occur 500 or more miles from Tijuana3. Source: USD’s Trans-Border Institute In fact, Tijuana’s investment in security Total Crime Incidents: Tijuana equipment, personnel improvements and training, (2006-YTD 2011, Secretaría de Seguridad and close coordination with State and Federal Pública del Estado de BC) officials (including agencies within the U.S. 7,500 government), have resulted in a 31.6% reduction 6,000 in total crimes within the City since well- publicized peaks in 2008 (see graph at right). 4,500 3,000 These security successes in Tijuana and Baja California have been notable enough that the 1,500 Peak2008

Washington Post commented in October 2011 0

of the City’s ―turnaround‖, and ―recovery‖4.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006

2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2010

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Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

www.Tijuana-EDC.com || [email protected] Call us toll free from the US & Canada: 1-888-TIJU-EDC || ph (011-52) 664-681-8344 | fax (011-52) 664-681-8788 The Facts: Putting Tijuana’s Security into Context

Like all of Mexico, Tijuana has received a significant amount of negative media coverage about security. Often lost in these reports, however, was the fact that criminals were fighting amongst themselves (or law enforcement), and that neither business visitors nor investors were a focus – as even the U.S. State Department acknowledged: ―…[M]ost victims of violence are Mexican citizens associated with criminal activity5.‖

More recently, the media has overlooked the effect 1H-2011 City Homicide Rates of a sustained and serious effort to regain security – Jan-Jun 2011, per 100K population resulting in a 36% decline in homicides in the City *New Orleans, LA 31.12 of Tijuana during the first six-months of 2011 *Flint, MI 28.31 versus 20106. As seen in the comparison at right, *Detroit, MI 24.24 using verified data directly from city police St. Louis, MO 21.61 departments in the U.S. (and independent media Baltimore, MD 16.27 Tijuana, BC sources for three cities)7, the facts are clear: 16.24 Oakland, CA 13.56 despite sensational media accounts, Tijuana’s Dayton, OH 12.01 homicide rate during the first-half of 2011 had Washington DC 9.14 dropped below or was similar to several major 0 10 20 30 40 Sources: Municipal police departments, unless noted with "*" which cities in the United States. indicates regional media reports; 2010 Census used for population Tijuana’s return as a more secure community has contributed to a notable increase in business visitors to Tijuana. While previous surveys have Business Visitor Visas shown an average of 30,000-40,000 business- Issued in Tijuana related trips are made by Southern California- (Otay Mesa & San Ysidro/Puerta residents into Tijuana each month8, in 2011 there México, Jan.-Sept.) 18,000 has also been a 46.5% increase in the number of Business Visitor Visas issued by Mexican 15,000 immigration authorities at Tijuana’s Ports of 12,000 9 Entry compared to the same period in 2009 . 9,000 6,000 One reason that business visits are on the increase: 15,569 3,000 12,430 Tijuana is easy to get to. This proximity is also, in 10,627 fact, a security benefit – as investors and business 0 Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep visitors are often in Tijuana for daytime hours and 2009 2010 2011 have only a short drive to cross back into the U.S. Source: Mexico's Instituto Nacional de Migración to be with their family – something not possible at non-border or offshore locations.

Investment in Security Infrastructure

While Tijuana’s overall security situation in 2011 is by some measures comparable to other U.S. and international business cities, the City Government, along with State and Federal agencies, continues to invest in technology, equipment and personnel.

www.Tijuana-EDC.com || [email protected] Call us toll free from the US & Canada: 1-888-TIJU-EDC || ph (011-52) 664-681-8344 | fax (011-52) 664-681-8788 In addition to a state-of-the-art Centro de Control y Mando – Command and Control Center (pictured on previous page) with 60 real-time video screens, there are over 400 high-resolution CCTV cameras spread throughout Tijuana’s industrial, commercial, and residential areas; 67 sound detectors; over 1,940 “Emergency Buttons” in businesses, tourism and Monthly Salary: Municipal Police shopping centers that allow the public to sound Selected Cities 2011 or *2010, pesos alarms that help direct City police to potential - 6,000 12,000 18,000 criminal activities; a mobile security Control Center; Tijuana, Baja CA. 14,949 and over 500 new police vehicles to increase patrol *Guadalajara, Jal. 9,167 10 coverage and reduce response times . *Chihuahua, Chih. 8,930 *Monterrey Municipio, NL. 8,774

Beyond technology, there have also been efforts to Silao, Guan. 8,351 further professionalize Tijuana’s municipal security García, NL. 7,759 services – including not only a thorough review and *Distrito Federal, DF 6,486 screening process of police personnel, but also Piedras Negras, Coah. 6,328 training and increased pay that now place Tijuana as Matamoros, Tam. 6,011 having the highest-salaried municipal police force in Mexico (an important investment to improve *Guaymas, Son. 5,900 Source: Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de morale and the quality of their work). Seguridad Pública, October 2011; amounts in MXN pesos/mo.

Tijuana: Lowering the Competitive Risk for Your Business Tijuana’s and Mexico’s economic stability and competitiveness don’t sell newspapers or draw hits on the internet, but they are facts – and also part of what investors consider when assessing today’s turbulent global economy. In fact, understanding how Tijuana can leverage Mexico’s benefits in a nearshore environment just “next door” to California and under NAFTA’s protective legal framework is a key element of any careful risk assessment – so how do Mexico and Tijuana rank today? In 2010, Deloitte and the U.S. Council on Competitiveness ranked Mexico #7 in their assessment of 10 factors for global manufacturing competitiveness, noting, “Proximity to the United States has boosted Mexico’s manufacturing potential and has helped position it firmly in the top rankings of the most competitive manufacturing locations.”11 Mexico also moved up to #38 in IMD’s 2011 World Competitiveness Yearbook12, above the Philippines (#41), Brazil (#44), and Colombia (#46). Worried about global financial turmoil? Moody’s has stated that “…Mexico is considered to be one of the countries better positioned to confront an adverse global macroeconomic environment…”13, and in August 2011, Fitch Ratings gave Tijuana an AA- rating (only two cities in Mexico were rated higher)14.

Reducing Risk: Mexico & Tijuana’s Rankings

Mexico #7 of 26 on the Deloitte/USCoC 2010 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Mexico #38 of 59 on IMD’s 2011 World Competitiveness Yearbook Tijuana rated AA- for Municipal Public Finances by FitchRatings

www.Tijuana-EDC.com || [email protected] Call us toll free from the US & Canada: 1-888-TIJU-EDC || ph (011-52) 664-681-8344 | fax (011-52) 664-681-8788 Tijuana: Looking Forward

Three years after the peak of security challenges in “My visit to Tijuana vividly showed 2008, Tijuana is regaining its place as a major, low- what a wide-ranging and productive risk and high-return investment destination in relationship we have with Mexico… North America – as seen by the growth of new President Obama has said that the fates of the United States and Mexico companies like Siliken (solar) and expansions at are more intertwined than ever companies like Greatbatch, Samsung, and others. before. What I saw in Tijuana During the first-half of 2011, in fact, Tijuana’s definitely supports that statement.” IMMEX/maquiladora industry grew by over 10,000 employees – the largest IMMEX employment — Arturo Valenzuela, increase for any city in Mexico15. former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs As has been shown with data from agencies and April 8, 2011 institutions on both sides of the border, the combination of better security technologies, the further professionalization of law enforcement personnel, and increased coordination with authorities in both Mexico and the U.S. has resulted in significant reductions in crime in this dynamic city to levels similar to some locations in the U.S. – a situation that presents both low levels of risk for investors and visitors, as well as a trend that will likely support continued growth and innovation in Tijuana’s economy.

For more information about this Analysis, or about the City of Tijuana, please contact the Tijuana Economic Development Corporation.

1 Website of Mexico’s official statistical agency, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, accessed October 2011 (http://dgcnesyp.inegi.org.mx/cgi-win/bdieintsi.exe/NIVR2501100070#ARBOL) 2 Embassy of the United States Mexico City, Press Releases, Sept. 2011 http://mexico.usembassy.gov/press-releases/ep110930- bajagob.html, accessed October 4, 2011 3 University of San Diego’s Trans-Border Institute, Mapping Project, Justice in Mexico Project, http://www.sandiego.edu/peacestudies/tbi/projects/current_projects/mapping_project.php , accessed October 2011 4 Anne-Marie O’Connor, “In Tijuana, taking a risk on a turnaround”, Washington Post (Oct. 8, 2011), http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/in-tijuana-taking-a-risk-on-a-turnaround/2011/10/05/gIQARhsSWL_story.html 5 U.S. State Department website, accessed October 2011 (http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5440.html ) 6 Analysis of Tijuana homicide trends by Crossborder Group Inc., using data provided by Baja California Procuraduria General de Justicia del Estado (PGJE). 7 Calculations made by Crossborder Group Inc., using city-level homicide data from January-June 2011 obtained directly from websites of the police departments of Washington DC; Dayton, OH; Oakland, CA; Baltimore, MD; and St. Louis, MO. As homicide data is either not available or delayed from the cities of Detroit, MI; Flint, MI; and New Orleans, LA, data was based on regional media accounts and/or crime tracking websites. Rates were calculated for only the first-half of 2011, using 2010 population data from the U.S. or Mexico Census (as appropriate). 8 Estimates based on at-border survey data collected in 2008 and 2009 by Crossborder Group Inc. (www.CrossborderBusiness.com), for Southern California-residing individuals that selected “business” as their primary reason for visiting Tijuana. 9 Crossborder Group Inc. analysis of INAMI visa data, 2009-2011YTD (http://www.inm.gob.mx/) 10 Crossborder Group Inc. analysis of data provided by the City of Tijuana, October 2011. 11 U.S. Council on Competitiveness and Deloitte, 2010 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (http://www.compete.org/publications/detail/1378/2010-global-manufacturing-competitiveness-index), p. 19 12 IMD World Competitiveness Center, 2011 World Competitiveness Yearbook (http://www.imd.org/research/publications/wcy/World-Competitiveness-Yearbook-Results/#/ , accessed October 2011) 13 Moody’s Investors Service, “Mexico’s sovereign rating stable despite U.S. negative outlook” (August 18, 2011). 14 Fitch México, Finanzas Públicas, Municipios – Listado de Calificaciones (August 31, 2011) 15 Crossborder Group analysis of INEGI data for IMMEX industries (January-June 2011)

www.Tijuana-EDC.com || [email protected] Call us toll free from the US & Canada: 1-888-TIJU-EDC || ph (011-52) 664-681-8344 | fax (011-52) 664-681-8788