REPORT Foundation for Dictatorship in Somaliland
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Tracking Conflict Worldwide
8/4/2020 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group CRISISWATCH Tracking Conflict Worldwide CrisisWatch is our global conict tracker, a tool designed to help decision- makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. Learn more about CrisisWatch July 2020 Global Overview JULY 2020 Trends for Last Month July 2020 Outlook for This Month Deteriorated Situations August 2020 Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, Conflict Risk Alerts Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Yemen, Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Iraq, Libya Tunisia Resolution Opportunities Improved Situations Afghanistan None https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/print?t=Crisiswatch+July+2020&crisiswatch=14628&date=July+2020 1/51 8/4/2020 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conict tracker highlights deteriorations in July in 11 countries and conict situations, the overwhelming majority of them in Africa. In Ethiopia, the killing of popular Oromo singer Hachalu Hundessa sparked a wave of protests, which left over 200 dead. In Sudan, the government struggled to advance the transitional agenda amid continuing delays in nalising a peace accord with rebel groups and escalating deadly violence in Darfur. In South Sudan, intercommunal violence surged in the east, while the partnership between President Salva Kiir and VP Riek Machar suffered setbacks. In Mali, clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces in the capital Bamako killed at least 14 people. Looking ahead to August, CrisisWatch warns of three conict risks. In Libya, Egypt took preparatory steps toward a direct military intervention, which could escalate the war dramatically, while heavy clashes in Yemen’s north between the government and the Huthis could intensify. -
Political Settlement in Somaliland: a Gendered Perspective
The Bartlett Development Planning Unit Political Settlement in Somaliland: A gendered perspective Michael Walls, Marie-Luise Schueller and Amina-Bahja Ekman with Amina-Milgo Mohamoud Warsame, Suad Ibrahim Abdi, Kinzi Hussein Kowden, Haroon Ahmed Yusuf and Omer Eid Qalonbi March 2017 dpu Development Planning Unit Political Settlement in Somaliland: A gendered perspective By Michael Walls, Marie-Luise Schueller and Amina-Bahja Ekman with Amina-Milgo Mohamoud Warsame, Suad Ibrahim Abdi, Kinzi Hussein Kowden, Haroon Ahmed Yusuf and Omer Eid Qalonbi UCL Ethical Approval Project ID: 8171/001 Cover photo: © Kate Stanworth, Hargeysa, 2016 Financial support from ESRC and DFID is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not necessarily those of ESRC or DFID. Political Settlement in Somaliland: A gendered perspective Michael Walls, Marie-Luise Schueller and Amina-Bahja Ekman with Amina-Milgo Mohamoud Warsame, Suad Ibrahim Abdi, Kinzi Hussein Kowden, Haroon Ahmed Yusuf and Omer Eid Qalonbi March 2017 dpu Development Planning Unit 2 Political Settlement in Somaliland: A gendered perspective About the authors Michael Walls is a Senior Lecturer at University College London’s (UCL) Bartlett Development Planning Unit (DPU) and, for the past thirteen years, his research has focused on the political economy of the Somali Horn of Africa, including the evolving political settlement in Somaliland. He was part of the coordination team for international election observations to Somaliland elections in 2005, 2010 and 2012, as well as for the 2016/17 voter registration process. Marie-Luise Schueller is the Policy and Campaigns Manager at Progressio where she works on issues of gender and governance concerning Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa. -
Assessing the 2017 Somaliland Presidential Election by Dr Adan
CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................ 2 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 3 Somaliland Elections ........................................................................................... 4 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 5 November 2017 presidential election................................................................... 7 Citizens’ concerns ................................................................................................................. 7 Citizens’ expectations ........................................................................................................... 9 Election dynamics ............................................................................................... 9 NEC as a key actor ................................................................................................................. 9 Political parties: views on electoral process ....................................................................... 10 The Media ........................................................................................................................... 13 Civil society actors ............................................................................................................... 14 International election observers ........................................................................................ -
Somaliland Opinion Survey
International Republican Institute Survey of Somaliland Public Opinion – Baki District June 29 – July 4, 2013 Methodology • The fieldwork was conducted from June 29–July 4, 2013 by Data and Research Solutions, a survey research company located in Hargeisa, Somaliland. • Questionnaire design, sample design, analysis of the data and overall supervision of the project was performed by Bob Carpenter of Chesapeake Beach Consulting, an international opinion research and consulting firm. • The population studied was registered voters in Baki District (16+). A representative random sample was designed based on the number of individuals who cast ballots in the November 2012 local elections. • Enumeration areas within each sub-district were randomly selected from a list of established polling centers; households within each sampling point were then identified using a random walk method and a skip pattern; respondents were randomly chosen using a Kish grid. • The sample size was 496. The questionnaire was offered in Somali language only. • The total number of registered voters casting ballots in the 2012 local elections in the sample universe is equal to 17,408 (SOURCE: Somaliland National Elections Commission). The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 4.5 percent. Please note that the margin of error for subsets (i.e. clans/age/education/etc.) is significantly higher and should be treated as indicative only. • The overall response rate (defined as the number of successful interviews divided by eligible houses visited) is 86 percent. To complete -
Somaliland 2021 Special Pre-Election Report-FINAL UPDATED
A VOTE FOR CHANGE: Somaliland’s Two Decades Old Electoral Democracy May 2021 cademy for Peace and Development kaademiga Nabadda iyo Horumarka 1 A Vote for Change: Somaliland’s Two Decades Old Electoral Democracy Contents 1. Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 2 2. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3 3. Background ...................................................................................................................... 4 4. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 5 5. Politics of Extension: Formal Rules of the Game ........................................................... 6 6. The Eastern Factor: Creating More Inclusive Politics .................................................... 9 Context .............................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Table 1: Regional Distribution of Votes in Somaliland’s elections (2002-2017). ............................. 9 Table 2: Seat Distribution between Isaaq and Non-Isaaq communities, 1960, 1998, 2005 ..... 10 What has changed now? ....................................................................................................................................... 10 7. The Elephant in the Room: Informal -
Assessing Political Legitimacy Amidst International Intervention in Haiti in Comparative Perspective
UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO Ph.D. Programme in Political Studies 32nd Cohort GRADUATE SCHOOL IN SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES Ph.D. Dissertation Unpacking Peacebuilding – Assessing Political Legitimacy Amidst International Intervention In Haiti In Comparative Perspective Mariana dos Santos Parra Academic Year 2018-2019 UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO Ph.D. Programme In Political Studies 32nd Cohort GRADUATE SCHOOL IN SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES Ph.D. Dissertation Unpacking Peacebuilding – Assessing Political Legitimacy Amidst International Intervention In Haiti In Comparative Perspective Mariana dos Santos Parra Supervisor: Prof. Fabrizio Coticchia Director: Prof. Matteo Jessoula Academic Year 2018-2019 To the people of Haiti, especially to those who daily resist and struggle to survive, to those who dream and struggle for a better future, despite the many forces that conspire against it. 3 Acknowledgments I am grateful, first of all, to my grandmother Amparo de Jesus (in memoriam), as her love and education made me who I am. To my husband Raphael, who was always there for me, in moments of happiness and insight, and in the dark hours of doubt, insecurity and confusion. He was there to support me and to make me laugh when there was nothing else to do. I thank my supervisor, Fabrizio Coticchia, for the constant support, for challenging me to deliver my best. I thank my advisor during the visiting research period at the University of Bremen, Klaus Schlichte, for our fruitful intellectual exchanges, and for his moral support, which was very important and meaningful for me, in the midst of my constant moves, and the permanent feeling of being an outsider. -
Normative Standing: De Facto State Identity and International Legitimation
Normative Standing: De Facto State Identity and International Legitimation Sebastian Tadeusz Klich August 2018 A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The Australian National University © Copyright by Sebastian Tadeusz Klich 2018 All Rights Reserved DECLARATION Unless otherwise acknowledged in the text, this thesis represents the original research of the author. The total word count for this thesis, excluding footnotes, bibliography, and appendices, is 74,244 words. Sebastian Klich 16 August 2018 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, under the leadership of Distinguished Professor Amin Saikal, provided institutional support and a vibrant intellectual environment for this research which greatly stimulated my growth as an aspiring scholar. I owe an unrepayable debt to my two supervisors. Associate Professor Mathew Gray's resolute support, often irrespective of time and physical location, has been invaluable. His belief in me and the research project, and his judicious incisive guidance have required nothing less than the best that I could give. Dr Kirill Nourzhanov became my supervisor in the later stages of the thesis and has been a thoughtful and stalwart bastion of scholarly standards with humour and grace in the collegial den. I am also greatly indebted to several other distinguished academics, who have provided key advice and guidance at crucial stages in the development and implementation of this project. Professor Nina Caspersen at the University of York in the United Kingdom, Associate Professor Jacinta O’Hagan, Director of the Graduate Centre in Governance and International Affairs at the University of Queensland, and Dr Mathew Davies, Director of the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs in the Department of International Relations at ANU, have all assisted with generous time and insights on relevant theories and gave valued feedback on sectional drafts. -
Somaliland at the Crossroads: Protecting the Fragile Stability
ISSUE 5 | OCTOBER 2015 East Africa Report Somaliland at the crossroads Protecting a fragile stability Simon Allison Summary In a confl ict-prone region, Somaliland is a rare success story. Although the international community has not recognised the independence of this self-declared republic, the territory functions with complete autonomy. Over the last 24 years, it has built a functioning democracy and relatively strong institutions of government; a particularly impressive achievement in comparison to the repeated failures of Mogadishu-based administrations. This progress, however, remains fragile. Somaliland’s continued stability is by no means guaranteed. It faces several challenges, both internal and external, which it must overcome if it is to continue its promising development – and if it is to have any chance of receiving the international recognition that is its holy grail. With presidential elections coming up, this report examines what those challenges are. SOMALILAND OCCUPIES A strange place in the hierarchy of the international community – if, that is, it can be said to be part of the international community at all. It has all the trappings of a state – the fl ag, the national anthem, the presidency and the parliament, the armed forces and the central bank – but is not considered to be a state. In this, its position is roughly analogous to the likes of Taiwan or Western Sahara, which operate in a similar diplomatic limbo. Offi cially, Somaliland is part of Somalia, and should answer to the Somali Federal Government based in Mogadishu. It has not done so since 1991, and Somalia is not strong enough to press its claim. -
2020: Human Rights Report
SOMALIA 2020 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Somalia is a federal parliamentary republic led by President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo,” whom the bicameral parliament elected in 2017. Farmaajo is the country’s second president since the Federal Government of Somalia was founded in 2012. The federal parliament consists of the 275-member House of the People and the 54-member Upper House. The country’s last parliamentary elections took place from October 2016 to January 2017. Caucuses selected House of the People members, with seats distributed according to clan affiliation and a power-sharing formula. State assemblies elected Upper House members. The parliamentary electoral process was widely viewed as marred by corruption, but the two houses of parliament elected President Farmaajo in a process viewed as fair and transparent. The government of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland controlled its jurisdiction. The 2012 provisional federal constitution states federal police, overseen by civilian leadership in the Ministry of Internal Security, have responsibility for law enforcement and maintenance of order within the country. Many parts of the country remained outside government control, with the insurgent Islamist group al- Shabaab contesting government control. The African Union Mission in Somalia, under civilian African Union leadership, and the Somali National Army, under civilian leadership in the Ministry of Defense, are the primary internal security providers. Civilian authorities did not always maintain effective -
BTI 2020 Country Report — Somalia
BTI 2020 Country Report Somalia This report is part of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2020. It covers the period from February 1, 2017 to January 31, 2019. The BTI assesses the transformation toward democracy and a market economy as well as the quality of governance in 137 countries. More on the BTI at https://www.bti-project.org. Please cite as follows: Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2020 Country Report — Somalia. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Contact Bertelsmann Stiftung Carl-Bertelsmann-Strasse 256 33111 Gütersloh Germany Sabine Donner Phone +49 5241 81 81501 [email protected] Hauke Hartmann Phone +49 5241 81 81389 [email protected] Robert Schwarz Phone +49 5241 81 81402 [email protected] Sabine Steinkamp Phone +49 5241 81 81507 [email protected] BTI 2020 | Somalia 3 Key Indicators Population M 15.0 HDI - GDP p.c., PPP $ - Pop. growth1 % p.a. 2.8 HDI rank of 189 - Gini Index - Life expectancy years 56.7 UN Education Index - Poverty3 % - Urban population % 45.0 Gender inequality2 - Aid per capita $ 120.7 Sources (as of December 2019): The World Bank, World Development Indicators 2019 | UNDP, Human Development Report 2019. Footnotes: (1) Average annual growth rate. (2) Gender Inequality Index (GII). (3) Percentage of population living on less than $3.20 a day at 2011 international prices. Executive Summary The beginning of the review period saw a presidential election in Somalia. Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, commonly known by his nickname “Farmaajo,” was elected as new president in January 2017. -
Report on the Somaliland Presidential Election, 13Th November 2017
The Bartlett Development Planning Unit International Election Observation Mission The limits of consensus? Report on the Somaliland Presidential Election, 13th November 2017 by Michael Walls, Conrad Heine, Andrea Klingel, Carrie Goggin, Ahmed Farag, Susan Mwape with input from Rooble Mohamed and Short-Term Observers. dpu Development Planning Unit DPU http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/dpu/ If a hard copy is required, please contact the De- velopment Planning Unit (DPU) at the address at the bottom of the page. Institutions, organisations and booksellers should supply a Purchase Order when ordering a copy of this report. Where multiple copies are ordered, and the cost of postage and package is significant, the DPU may make a charge to cover costs. Copyright of this report lies with the authors and there are no restrictions on it being published elsewhere in any version or form. Graphics and layout: Luz Navarro Cover photograph: © Kate Stanworth The Bartlett The Bartlett The Bartlett Development Planning Unit | The Bartlett | University College London The Bartlett 34 Tavistock Square - London - WC1H 9EZ Tel: +44 (0)20 7679 1111 - Fax: +44 (0)20 7679 1112 - www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/dpu 1 International Election Observation Mission The limits of consensus? Report on the Somaliland Presidential Election, 13th November 2017 by Michael Walls, Conrad Heine, Andrea Klingel, Carrie Goggin, Ahmed Farag, Susan Mwape with input from Rooble Mohamed and Short-Term Observers. March 2018 Acknowledgements. We would like to express our help with transport, Saferworld (Abdijalil Dahir Afqarshe) appreciation to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office for providing additional observers, transport and for shar- (FCO) for providing the funding for the international elec- ing photographs taken by the photographer Kate Stan- tion observation mission and in particular to Rosie Tapper worth, and to the Maan-Soor Hotel for their flexibility and and Edward Prior for their support. -
Somaliland Opinion Survey
International Republican Institute Survey of Somaliland Public Opinion – Salaxley District June 29 – July 4, 2013 Methodology • The fieldwork was conducted from June 29 – July 4, 2013 by Data and Research Solutions, a survey research company located in Hargeisa, Somaliland. • Questionnaire design, sample design, analysis of the data and overall supervision of the project was performed by Bob Carpenter of Chesapeake Beach Consulting, an international opinion research and consulting firm. • The population studied was registered voters in Salaxley District (16+). A representative random sample was designed based on the number of individuals who cast ballots in the November 2012 local elections. • Enumeration areas within each sub-district were randomly selected from a list of established polling centers; households within each sampling point were then identified using a random walk method and a skip pattern; respondents were randomly chosen using a Kish grid. • The sample size was 501. The questionnaire was offered in Somali language only. • The total number of registered voters casting ballots in the 2012 local elections in the sample universe is equal to 15,902. (SOURCE: Somaliland National Election Commission). The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 4.5 percent. Please note that the margin of error for subsets (i.e. clans/age/education/etc.) is significantly higher and should be treated as indicative only. • The overall response rate (defined as the number of successful interviews divided by eligible houses visited) is 95 percent.