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SCENES European Transport Scenarios ST 97-RS-2277

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SCENES European Transport Scenarios ST 97-RS-2277 Final Report for Publication SCENES European Transport Scenarios ST 97-RS-2277 Project ME&P (UK) co-ordinator Partners: Institut für Wirstschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung (DE) Institut National de Recherche sur les Transport et leur Sécurité (FR) Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research, TNO (NL) LT Consultants Ltd (FI) TRT Trasporti e Territorio Srl (IT) Közlekedéstudományi Intézet RT (HU) NEA Transport research and training (NL) ISIS SA (FR) Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft und Raumfahrt (DE) Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (ES) Marcial Echenique y Compañia (ES) Centro Studi sui Sistemi Transporto S.p.A (IT) University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics (PL) University of Leeds, ITS (UK) Niezaleny Osrodek Badan Ekonomkznych (PL) National Technical University of Athens (GR) École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH) Project Duration: 01/01/98 to 31/03/01 Date: April 2002 PROJECT FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION UNDER THE TRANSPORT RTD PROGRAMME OF THE 4th FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME SCENES Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS THE SCENES CONSORTIUM VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VIII PART A - OBJECTIVES 1 PART B - MEANS USED TO ACHIEVE THE PROJECT OBJECTIVES 2 PART C - SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT 6 WORK AREA 10 7 1 INTRODUCTION TO WA 10 7 2 THE SCENES INTERNET DATABASE 9 2.1 Contents of the SCENES Internet Database 9 2.2 Functionality 11 2.3 Data Availability in the SCENES Internet Database 13 2.4 Specific Problem Areas in Setting up a Regional Pan European Information System 15 2.5 Summary and outlook 16 3 DRIVERS OF TRANSPORT DEMAND 17 3.1 Generation of forecasts 17 3.2 Central and Eastern European countries 17 3.3 Demand/ supply interaction 19 3.4 Regulatory systems 23 3.5 Changes in trends 30 3.6 Institutional aspects 42 4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS OF WORK AREA 10 56 WORK AREA 11 59 5 INTRODUCTION TO WA 11 59 5.1 SCENES Model Structure - Overview 60 6 PASSENGER MODEL STRUCTURE AND CALIBRATION 62 6.1 Passenger Model Structure 62 6.2 Passenger Model Validation 64 7 FREIGHT MODEL STRUCTURE AND CALIBRATION 67 7.1 Freight Model Structure 67 7.2 Freight Model Validation 69 7.3 Road Network Flows 71 8 FORECAST SCENARIOS FOR 2020 73 8.1 Transport Scenarios 75 8.2 SCENES 2020 Passenger Forecasts 79 8.3 SCENES 2020 Freight Forecasts 89 8.4 Combined 2020 Model Network Flows 96 WORK AREA 12 98 9 INTRODUCTION TO WA 12 98 10 EXTERNAL SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT 100 10.1 Implications of Behavioural Changes on the Definition of “Global” Scenarios 100 10.2 European Spatial Development Scenarios 110 10.3 Behavioural and Structural Change Scenarios 119 11 TRANSPORT POLICY SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT 130 11.1 A Combined Infrastructure/pricing Scenario Applied to the TINA Corridors 130 11.2 Policy Scenario for the Transalpine Freight Transport System 134 11.3 East West Case Study 140 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS 143 12 THE ROLES AND INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF THE TOOLS DEVELOPED 143 i SCENES Final Report 12.1 The Role of the SCENES European Model 143 12.2 The Roles of the Detailed Models 145 13 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 147 13.1 External and Policy Scenarios 147 13.2 Methodological developments 148 14 REFERENCES & BIBLIOGRAPHY 150 APPENDIX 1 PROJECT DELIVERABLES 157 APPENDIX 2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 158 ii SCENES Final Report List of Tables Table 2.1 Regions available in the SCENES Internet Database ..........................................................10 Table 6.1 Scenes passenger model structure........................................................................................63 Table 6.2 Modelled Passenger Travel – 1995 EU Domestic (billion pkm / year) ...............................65 Table 6.3 1995 EU Domestic Modelled / ‘Observed’ passenger km values........................................65 Table 6.4 Modelled Passenger Travel – 1995 CEEC8 Domestic (billion pkm / year) ........................66 Table 6.5 1995 CEEC Domestic Modelled / ‘Observed’ passenger km values...................................66 Table 7.1 Correspondence between Industries and Freight Flows ......................................................68 Table 7.2 SCENES Transport flows & standard freight classifications ..............................................68 Table 7.3 Total national+international freight traffic by country, 1995 (‘000 tonnes/year)................69 Table 7.4 Domestic freight traffic by country (‘000 Tonnes / year)....................................................70 Table 7.5 Observed/Modelled freight on national territories by mode 1995 (tkm*106/annum)..........70 Table 7.6 STREAMS 1994 / SCENES 1995 EU road network km by flow / capacity ratio...............71 Table 7.7 Percent of EU road network km by road traffic flow (2-way) and road type ......................72 Table 8.1 SCENES 2020 External Scenario – Population and Employment.......................................73 Table 8.2 SCENES 2020 External Scenario – Car Ownership levels..................................................74 Table 8.3 SCENES 2020 External Scenario – GDP (% pa growth) ....................................................74 Table 8.4 Transport cost Scenarios for CTP SCENES runs (% per annum, 1995-2010) ....................76 Table 8.5 Percent per annum real cost changes in Italian international freight transport by mode .....78 Table 8.6 Comparisons of past trend and previous projects assumptions (% change/year) ................79 Table 8.7 Freight Transport Scenarios (% per annum transport cost change, 1995-2020)..................79 Table 8.8 EU Domestic plus intra-EU international passenger travel, 2020 (109 person-km/annum) 80 Table 8.9 CEEC Domestic passenger travel, 2020 109 person-km / annum........................................82 Table 8.10 CEEC Growth in Domestic passenger travel by country, person km % pa, 1995-2020.....83 Table 8.11 Country level trip rates, 1995 and 2020 trips / person / year ..............................................83 Table 8.12 Country level Domestic Average Trips Distances, 1995 and 2020 Scenarios (km/trip).....84 Table 8.13 Basic Modal Split, 1995 and 2020 Scenarios (% all trips), EU & CEEC ...........................84 Table 8.14 Total freight tonnages by movement, 1995 & 2020 (‘000 / annum)...................................89 Table 8.15 Growth in freight tonnes lifted by Transport Flow: 1995-2020 % per annum....................90 Table 8.16 Modal share of tonnes lifted (% tonnes), 1995 and 2020 Scenarios ...................................91 Table 8.17 Proportion of network km by transport flow, combined 2-way flow, 1995 & 2020...........96 Table 10.1 Passenger exogenous/endogenous factors, implications on behavioural trends................103 Table 10.2 Freight exogenous/endogenous factors, their implications on behavioural trends............105 Table 10.3 Effect of the Unrestricted compared to the Quality of Life scenario for 16 trends...........124 Table 10.4 Spatial structure of the journeys in 1995 and for each scenario in 2020...........................128 Table 10.5 Effects on household car ownership of income growth and car purchase prices..............129 iii SCENES Final Report List of Figures Figure 2.1: Example for data available in the SCENES Internet Database...........................................11 Figure 2.2: Screenshot - Formation of the regions in hierarchical level and by a certain NUTS level.12 Figure 2.3: Screenshot - Mask for formulating select conditions .........................................................12 Figure 2.4: Screenshot - Detailed information about the data presented above every table .................13 Figure 2.5: Data availability by countries .............................................................................................14 Figure 2.6: Data availability by indicators ............................................................................................15 Figure 3.1: Forecasts for GDP growth rates by countries .....................................................................18 Figure 3.2: Interrelations between demand and supply in transport .....................................................19 Figure 3.3: Concept of the dynamic supply-demand-interaction scheme .............................................21 Figure 3.4: Development of demand/supply for a dynamic demand/supply interaction scheme..........21 Figure 3.5: Impact mechanism in ASTRA............................................................................................22 Figure 3.6: Change in trend...................................................................................................................31 Figure 3.7: Correlation between GDP and (road) freight transport performance/ volume ...................35 Figure 3.8: Development of demand for air transport from Germany to specific destinations.............36 Figure 3.9: Trips (all modes) in French urban areas .............................................................................36 Figure 3.10: Mobility time budgets in French urban areas ...................................................................37 Figure 3.11: Evolution of transport intensities related to total freight transport performance..............38 Figure 3.12: Development of road freight versus rail freight................................................................39 Figure 3.13: Development of passenger rail performance in relation to GDP per capita .....................39 Figure 3.14: Evolution of car ownership...............................................................................................40 Figure 3.15:
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