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Farley Gmu 0883E 10681.Pdf Making Program/Budget Decisions about the Future of the Navy: How Senior Flag Officers Work with Political Appointees and Career Civilian Executives inside the Navy Headquarters A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Robin Lee Farley Master of Public Policy Harvard Kennedy School, 1989 Bachelor of Arts University of California, Berkeley, 1986 Director: Ann Baker, Professor Department of Public Policy Summer Semester 2014 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright: 2014 Robin Lee Farley All Right Reserved ii DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my wife Karyn Barlow, and our two wonderful children Emma Grace Farley and William Robert Barlow Farley who all endured countless hours outside the house, or quiet inside, while “dad’s doing his dissertation.” iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project would never have been completed were it not for the support and encouragement of my wife, my family and friends and my co-workers. I would especially like to recognize the anonymous contribution of the dedicated public servants who agreed to participate in this study and by sharing their experiences of working together making decisions about the future Navy, helped contribute to a more thorough understanding about how the Department of the Navy headquarters actually works. I would like to acknowledge the support of my supervisor and co-workers at CNIC. They kept the proverbial trains running while I took time off to finish this project. Finally, I would like to thank the members of my Committee and Professor Baker, my Committee Chair for her endless patience, understanding and faith that gave me confidence when I was at the point of giving up and whose gentle but firm guidance was instrumental in bringing this project to completion. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations .......................................................................................................... x Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Introduction, Problem Statement and Research Questions ............................... 4 Introduction and Research Questions .............................................................................. 4 The US Navy ................................................................................................................... 8 The Navy Deployment Cycle .................................................................................... 10 The Navy’s Problem Today ....................................................................................... 11 This Study ..................................................................................................................... 15 Method .......................................................................................................................... 15 The Actors ..................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2: Background: The DoD Decision Making Environment .................................. 22 Background: How much is enough? ............................................................................. 24 Unrestrained Requirements: Navy Planning ............................................................. 24 The Honest Broker: Building the Program Objectives Memorandum (POM) .......... 27 Pricing the POM and Balancing the Books: The Navy Budget Review Process ...... 30 Final Decisions: The OSD/OMB Program and Budget Review ............................... 33 Spending Money: The Execution Process ................................................................. 35 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 35 Chapter 3: Literature ......................................................................................................... 38 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 38 Complexity Theory ....................................................................................................... 38 v Self-Organization....................................................................................................... 40 Evolution and Improvement ...................................................................................... 43 Complex Adaptive Systems....................................................................................... 46 Organizational Learning ................................................................................................ 52 Rational Choice ............................................................................................................. 55 Essence of Decision ................................................................................................... 57 Capability versus Cost ................................................................................................... 60 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 4: Method and Research Question ...................................................................... 64 Phase I: Grounded Theory Interviews ........................................................................... 66 Phase II: Analyzing Outcome-based Data .................................................................... 74 The Investigator as the Instrument ................................................................................ 79 Chapter 5: Findings ........................................................................................................... 82 Findings ......................................................................................................................... 82 1. Who makes decisions does not appear to have much effect on the long-term trajectory of future Navy ............................................................................................... 85 1.1 The Chief of Naval Operations is the most influential actor ............................... 85 1.2 No one can easily oppose the Chief ..................................................................... 92 1.3 Deputies are institutionally handicapped ............................................................. 95 1.4 The system handles most decisions ..................................................................... 99 1.5 Getting leadership’s attention is difficult .......................................................... 104 1.6 The institution can successfully resist most changes ......................................... 107 Summary .................................................................................................................. 113 2. The analytical processes that support decision making have changed over the last twenty-five years ......................................................................................................... 114 2.1 The focus is on the near term............................................................................. 116 2.2 Analytical processes are invented to handle specific problems ........................ 117 2.3 Increasingly, the process interferes with “good” analysis ................................. 122 2.4 Difficult decisions are never made early ........................................................... 124 vi 2.5 Analysts resort to “Salami Slicing” ................................................................... 126 2.6 The fiscal and strategic environment shape the boundaries of the choices ....... 129 Summary .................................................................................................................. 130 Chapter 6: Analysis, Interpretation and Synthesis of Findings....................................... 132 Complex Adaptive Systems and the “Spend Everything” Rule .................................. 140 “Spend everything” depends on how much money the Navy gets from Congress ..... 145 Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................. 150 Limits of the Research ................................................................................................. 152 Recommendation ......................................................................................................... 154 Conclusion and Next Steps ......................................................................................... 156 Next Steps ................................................................................................................ 158 Appendix: Human Subjects Research Board Materials .................................................. 160 References ....................................................................................................................... 166 Biography ........................................................................................................................ 172 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Cost of the Fleet vs. Size of the Fleet ................................................................
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