NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT PAPERS 39 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE WAR NAVAL Influence without Boots on the Ground Seaborne Crisis Response NEWPORT PAPERS NEWPORT N ES AV T A A L T W S A D R E C T I O L N L U E E G H E T I VIRIBU OR A S CT MARI VI 39 Larissa Forster U.S. GOV ERN MENT Cover OF FI CIAL EDI TION NO TICE This per spective ae rial view of New port, Rhode Island, drawn and pub lished by Galt & Hoy of New York, circa 1878, is found in the Amer i can Mem ory On line Map Collec tions: 1500–2003, of the Li brary of Con gress Ge og ra phy and Map Di vi sion, Wash ing ton, D.C. The map may be viewed at http://hdl.loc.gov/ loc.gmd/g3774n.pm008790. Use of ISBN Pre fix This is the Offi cial U.S. Govern ment edi tion of this pub li ca tion and is herein iden ti fied to cer tify its au then tic ity. ISBN 978-1-935352-03-7 is for this U.S. Gov ern ment Print ing Of fice Of fi cial Edi tion only. 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For Sale by the Super in ten dent of Doc u ments, U.S. Gov ern ment Print ing Of fice Internet: bookstore. gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800 Fax: (202) 512-2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Wash ing ton, DC 20402-00001 ISBN: 978-1-935352-03-7 NP_39InsideCovers spread Friday,May 25, 2012 12:50:05 PM Influence without Boots on the Ground Seaborne Crisis Response Larissa Forster NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS Newport, Rhode Island meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 23, 2013 1:23 PM This thesis was accepted as a doctoral dissertation by the Faculty of Arts of the University of Zurich in the fall semester 2010 on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel and Prof. Dr. Peter Dombrowski (U.S. Naval War College). Naval War College The Newport Papers are extended research projects that Newport, Rhode Island the Director, the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies, and the Center for Naval Warfare Studies President of the Naval War College consider of particular Newport Paper Thirty-Nine interest to policy makers, scholars, and analysts. January 2013 The views expressed in the Newport Papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of President, Naval War College the Naval War College or the Department of the Navy. Rear Adm. John N. Christenson, USN Correspondence concerning the Newport Papers may be Provost addressed to the Director of the Naval War College Press. Amb. Mary Ann Peters To request additional copies, back copies, or subscriptions Dean of Naval Warfare Studies to the series, please either write the President (Code 32S), Robert C. Rubel Naval War College, 686 Cushing Road, Newport, RI 02841-1207, or contact the Press staff at the telephone, fax, Naval War College Press or e-mail addresses given. Director: Dr. Carnes Lord Reproduction and printing are subject to the Copyright Managing Editor: Pelham G. Boyer Act of 1976 and applicable treaties of the United States. This document may be freely reproduced for academic or Telephone: 401.841.2236 other noncommercial use; however, it is requested that Fax: 401.841.1071 reproductions credit the author and Newport Papers series DSN exchange: 841 and that the Press editorial office be informed. To obtain E-mail: [email protected] permission to reproduce this publication for commercial Web: www.usnwc.edu/press purposes, contact the Press editorial office. Twitter: http://twitter.com/NavalWarCollege ISSN 1544-6824 Printed in the United States of America ISBN 978-1-935352-03-7 meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 23, 2013 1:23 PM Contents List of Figures v List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ix Acknowledgments xiii Foreword, by Peter Dombrowski xv Introduction: Military Interventions and the Deployment of Naval Forces 1 CHAPTER ONE Navies Are Able to Do Things That Armies Can’t: The Difference between the U.S. Navy and Other U.S. Armed Forces 13 CHAPTER TWO Just Enough Force? A Theoretical Framework for Seaborne Crisis Response 57 CHAPTER THREE Uncharted Waters: Data on U.S. Naval Activity Short of War 95 CHAPTER FOUR We Move on the Seas That We Control, Part I: Assessing the Empirical Evidence— Crisis Characteristics and Actors 125 CHAPTER FIVE We Move on the Seas That We Control, Part II: Assessing the Empirical Evidence— U.S. Involvement and Crisis Outcomes 149 Conclusion 181 APPENDIX A Crisis Summaries (online only) APPENDIX B Data (online only) Bibliography 193 meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 23, 2013 1:23 PM iv the newport papers About the Author 211 The Newport Papers 213 meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 23, 2013 1:23 PM List of Figures FIGURE 1 Major Capstone Documents since 1970 21 FIGURE 2 Major Documents and Core Missions 22 FIGURE 3 Crisis Model 1 and 2: Crisis Part of War and Peace and Crisis Part of Peace 24 FIGURE 4 Deterrence Capabilities by U.S. Armed Forces 45 FIGURE 5 Armed Suasion 67 FIGURE 6 Conceptualization of the Theoretical Context of Gunboat Diplomacy 73 FIGURE 7 USN Force Combinations Pyramid 78 FIGURE 8 CNA III USN Service Combinations 101 FIGURE 9 Three Naval Combination Variables 111 FIGURE 10 Naval Involvement Binary and USN- USMC Team & USN with Other Forces 113 FIGURE 11 USN and Other Forces Combinations 114 FIGURE 12 Naval Strength 114 FIGURE 13A Time Line of Naval Involvement 115 FIGURE 13B Time Line of Naval Involvement, Servicetype2 115 FIGURE 14 Geographic Location & Content of U.S. Activity 118 FIGURE 15 Crisis Characteristics Model 1 125 FIGURE 16 Crisis Characteristics Model 2 126 FIGURE 17 Crisis Characteristics Frequencies 127 FIGURE 18 Model Crisis Characteristics 1a: Servicetype2, Stepwise Multinomial Regression 128 meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 29, 2013 4:29 PM vi the newport papers FIGURE 19 Model Crisis Characteristics 1b: USNUSMCTEam, Stepwise Multinomial Regression 130 FIGURE 20 Model Crisis Characteristics 2: Servicetype1, Stepwise Multinomial Regression 134 FIGURE 21 Crisis Actor Model 1 136 FIGURE 22 Crisis Actor Model 2 137 FIGURE 23 Crisis Actor Model 3 137 FIGURE 24 Crisis Actors Frequencies 137 FIGURE 25 Model Actor Characteristics 1: Servicetype2, Stepwise Multinomial Regression 138 FIGURE 26 Model Actor Characteristics 2: Servicetype1, Stepwise Multinomial Regression 140 FIGURE 27 U.S. Involvement Model 1 149 FIGURE 28 U.S. Involvement Model 2 150 FIGURE 29 U.S. Involvement Model 3 150 FIGURE 30 U.S. Involvement Model 4 150 FIGURE 31 U.S. Involvement Model 5 150 FIGURE 32 U.S. Involvement Model 6 150 FIGURE 33 U.S. Involvement Frequencies 152 FIGURE 34 Model U.S. Involvement H3b: Effectiveness 153 FIGURE 35 Model U.S. Involvement H3c: Most Effective Activity 155 FIGURE 36 Model U.S. Involvement H3d: Abatement 158 FIGURE 37 U.S. Involvement H3a: Content of Activity 160 FIGURE 38 U.S. Involvement H3e: Actor 162 meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 29, 2013 4:29 PM influence without boots on the ground vii FIGure 39 Frequency of Number of CVs Deployed and USN-USMC Deployments per Year 163 FIGure 40 Multivariate Regression Outputs 164 FIGure 41 Crisis Outcome Model 1 164 FIGure 42 Crisis Outcome Model 2 165 FIGure 43 Crisis Outcome Model 3 165 FIGure 44 Crisis Outcome Model 4 165 FIGure 45 Crisis Outcome Frequencies 166 FIGure 46 Model Crisis Outcome H4a: Content 167 FIGure 47 Model Crisis Outcome H4b: Agreement 169 FIGure 48 Model Crisis Outcome H4d: Satisfaction 172 FIGure 49 Model Crisis Outcome H4e: Attitude/ Satisfaction Mix 173 FIGure 50 Hypotheses Results Overview 182 meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 23, 2013 1:23 PM List of Acronyms and Abbreviations A AMP amphibious AOR area of responsibility APS Africa Partnership Station ARG amphibious ready group ASBM antiship ballistic missile ATF amphibious task force C CNA Center for Naval Analyses CNO Chief of Naval Operations CONUS continental United States COW Correlates of War CS21 “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower” CT counterterrorism CV aircraft carrier CVBG carrier battle group CVN aircraft carrier, nuclear-powered D DoD Department of Defense DR disaster relief E ESG expeditionary strike group F FY fiscal year G GFS Global Fleet Station GMP Global Maritime Partnership meyers$:___WIP from C 032812:_Newport Papers:_NP39:_InDesign:01 NP_39 FrontMatter.indd January 23, 2013 1:23 PM x the newport papers GPS Global Positioning System GWOT global war on terror H HA humanitarian assistance I ICB International Crisis Behavior Project IMI International Military Interventions IW irregular warfare L LCS littoral combat ship M MARG Mediterranean Amphibious Ready Group MDA maritime domain awareness MEU(SOC) Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable) MID Militarized Interstate Disputes MIO maritime