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Losing the Battle, Winning the War: Legislative Candidacy in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes

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Losing the Battle, Winning the War: Legislative Candidacy in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes LOSING THE BATTLE, WINNING THE WAR: LEGISLATIVE CANDIDACY IN ELECTORAL AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES By KEITH R. WEGHORST A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2015 ⃝c 2015 Keith R. Weghorst To my parents Mtoto umleyavyo ndivyo akuavyo And to Kristin Kuoa ni arusi, kuishi wawili ni ngoma ACKNOWLEDGMENTS My first acknowledgments are to those who were willing to invest their time and effort into shaping my research project. Thanks to Staffan I. Lindberg for his mentorship, from coursework and co-authorship to my apprenticeship on the grill at Friday \Firesites." Thanks to Michael Bernhard whose sharp wit has taught me to think on my feet. His guidance to think outside of myself and my project has helped me become a better scholar. I appreciate both of them for their patience while I finished this dissertation. Thanks also to Ben Smith, one of my first instructors at University of Florida and the reason I will always be able to explain my dissertation to my grandmother. Coursework with Bryon Moraski and Ken Wald also shaped this dissertation. In addition to the great faculty in the Political Science department, the Center for African Studies at the University of Florida is a tremendous resource and I am grateful for the opportunity to have been a member of the community. It is truly a one-of-a-kind home for scholars of Africa and a blessing to have shared seminars and talks with so many magnates in the study of Africa. Tremendous gratitude is owed to Leo Villalon and Todd Leedy, who led the center during my time in Gainesville. Much of what I learned at the University of Florida can be attributed to my fellow graduate student colleagues, many of whom read previous drafts and provided valuable comments and insight. I also would like to thank Will Reno and Katrina Daly Thompson. It is Will's mentorship that first exposed me to politics in Africa and Katrina's knowledge of Tanzania that set me down the path of this dissertation project. At critical times of doubt, they both gave me confidence in pursuing a PhD in Political Science. I have been been hosted by several other academic institutions while completing my dissertation. New York University's Wilf Family Department of Politics welcomed me into their academic community while I prepared dissertation grant applications. I benefited greatly from the stimulating environment of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame, where I was a visiting scholar during the 2012-2013 academic year. In 4 Tanzania, I was supported over the years but a number of institutions, including the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at University of Dar es Salaam under the guidance of Max Mmuya and Benson Bana, the International Law and Policy Institute supervised by Kjetil Tronvoll, and the State University of Zanzibar under Vice Chancellor Dr. Idris Ahmada Rai. I am grateful to be in the Political Science department at Vanderbilt University as a Pre/Post-doctoral Research Fellow and for the support of my current colleagues here as I reached the penultimate stages of my dissertation. When carrying out enumerator training for a survey project, I often describe my role in the research exercise as one of a coach. I do play an important role in preparing them to \take the field,” but ultimately the success of the research project rests with them. The completion of this dissertation is due to a team of dedicated research assistants, field enumerators, and collaborators I have worked with from 2009 to 2014. Survey enumerators for household surveys in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014 were (ordered alphabetically by surname) Salum Mkubwa Abdullah, Awatif Ghalib Awadh, Richard Emil, Gora Akida Haji, Dhamir Kombo Hamad, Abdulla Kheir Hassan, Aziza Said Hussein, Saada Salum Issa, Salim Ali Juma, Matrona Kabyemela, Shara Jafar Khamis, Cyprian Kilangi, Seif Mabaad Makungu, Patrick Mpiri, Mathias Marko, Arka Mayombo, Esther Mgasha, Msabah Masoud Msabah, Tamima Is-Hak Mzee, Joseph Potino, Frolence Rutechura, Juma Ali Simai, and Tamasha Juma Therea. Silas Bwire, Victor Kingu, Innocent J. Kisanyage, Edward M. Makabayo, Bonifasia Mapunda, and Aminata Saguti carried out the party-based candidate/non-candidate surveys and are commended for their hard work covering a substantial portion of Tanzania's mainland to implement the surveys. I would like especially acknowledge Abdallah Ali Abeid, Richard Alphonce, Fidel Dassan, Riziki Pembe Juma, Paul Loisulic, and Deman Yusuph for their efforts in interviewing Tanzanian legislators, a task which required a delicate balance of politeness, professionalism, persistence, and patience. Special thanks are due to Yulli Jeremia, who has remained close throughout my dissertation research. Watching him transition from a 5 survey enumerator to a supervisor to leading survey implementation and embarking now on founding a research firm in Northern Tanzania gives me immense joy. His contributions to my dissertation are truly irreplaceable. This dissertation was supported by a number of internal grants from the University of Florida, including ones from the Department of Political Science, the Center for African Studies, the Graduate School, and the Graduate Student Council. I also have received financial support from the Fulbright-Hays Doctoral Dissertation Research Abroad Fellowship, the American Political Science Association's African Workshops, and the International Law and Policy Institute. In addition to the logistical and financial support from the International Law and Policy Institute, I had the opportunity to work closely with a number of engaging individuals. As the \numbers guy" on our block in Wete, Pemba|a guesthouse, really|I benefitted so much from the deep historical knowledge of the politics of Zanzibar and Tanzania which Eivind Fjeldstad, Sigrun Marie Moss, and Hajj Mohammed Hajj had to share. The finest collaborator throughout my dissertation has been Sterling Roop. His knowledge of Zanzibari politics and relationships with important politician figures there is incomparable and the success of several parts of the research strategy are due to his generous support. I also thank him for his invaluable friendship over the years, particularly during the most challenging times in the field. Njia in rafiki. My family has been unwavering in their support and understanding throughout this process. I attribute my initial interest in Africa to my mother, whose work as an artist and tapestry weaver exposed me and my siblings to the vibrant fiber arts of West Africa and how simple things often carry complex historical, social, and political meaning. Her passion inspires the personal touch of this narrative and its creativity. I credit my father for giving me the desire to \know" and to approach challenges|within a research question and in my life|through goal-oriented problem-solving. My parents' dedication to social justice has instilled in me the desire to understand the adversity that others face in their 6 lives and generate knowledge that help in part to alleviate it. Thanks also to my brother and sister, who as teachers, have shown me the value and reward of pursing a career in education. And finally, thanks to my partner in life, Kristin Michelitch. While our mutual interest in the politics of elections in Africa is why we first met, it is her desire to explore and drive to make the world a better place that inspires me every day. She has been my best friend throughout this project and I am joyful to share life's future journeys with such an adventurous, caring companion. 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ..................................... 14 LIST OF FIGURES .................................... 17 ABSTRACT ........................................ 19 CHAPTER 1 CONFRONTING THE PUZZLE .......................... 20 1.1 Introduction ................................... 20 1.2 A History of Uncompetitive Elections ..................... 23 1.3 Authoritarianism and Electoral Competition ................. 25 1.3.1 Definitions and Concepts ........................ 25 1.3.2 Why Authoritarian Leaders Hold Elections .............. 27 1.3.3 Authoritarian Elections: Exogenous Institutions? ........... 28 1.3.4 Underexplored Terrain: Legislative Elections and the Opposition .. 30 1.4 The Argument in Brief ............................. 33 1.5 Outline of Manuscript ............................. 37 2 THEORY ....................................... 45 2.1 Electoral Authoritarianism and Political Opposition ............. 45 2.1.1 Theory 1: Co-optation ......................... 46 2.1.2 Theory 2: Strategic Defection ..................... 47 2.1.3 Theory 3: Ideological Differences .................... 48 2.1.4 Ambitious Politics and the Micrologic of Legislative Candidacy ... 49 2.1.5 Original Theory: Ambition and Political Paths ............ 50 2.2 P , B, and C in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes ............... 51 2.2.1 The Probability P of Winning an Election .............. 52 2.2.1.1 Intraparty selection ...................... 54 2.2.1.2 Interparty election ...................... 59 2.2.2 Benefits (B) of Legislative Office .................... 60 2.2.3 Costs (C) of Electoral Competition .................. 63 2.2.4 Risk Aversion .............................. 65 2.3 Path, Timing, and \Nascent Ambition" as Duration ............. 67 2.4 Conclusion .................................... 68 3 RESEARCH STRATEGY:
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