AEROSPACE AMERICA 5
May 2012 MAY 2012
Human space exploration A GLOBAL QUEST
Snaring a piece of the sky Hypersonic transport…30 years and holding A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS AA-layout-SPACE0111_Layout 1 4/10/12 12:23 PM Page 2
Soyuz and Long March set the pace
THE LAUNCH SERVICES INDUSTRY CON- Russia’s Proton, Europe’s Ariane 5, the have emerged as the most prolific tinued to grow last year, posting 79 at- U.S. Atlas V, the Ukraine’s Zenit, the space launch programs in the world, by tempted orbital launch missions. That U.S. Delta IV and Delta II, Japan’s far. Together they account for 34% of all total surpassed the 75 missions in each H-2, the U.S. Minotaur and space shut- the launches attempted during the past of the previous two years and repre- tle, and India’s PSLV. By contrast, the three years; we project that this domi- sents more launches than at any time 12 most active vehicles accounted for nance will continue—and probably ex- since 2000, when 87 were attempted. 88% of all attempted launches in each pand—for the foreseeable future. But although the number of launches of 2009 and 2010. increased, there was far less diversity The rising trend in launch activity Commercial expansion for Soyuz in terms of the rockets used. In 2009 concentration is apparent for the three While Soyuz has consistently ranked and again in 2010, 21 different launch most active rockets, which accounted among the leading rockets for dec- vehicle models were employed, com- for 40% of all launches in 2009, 52% in ades, most of its business traditionally pared to only 18 in 2011. 2010, and 53% in 2011. But it is partic- has focused on launching civil satel- [Note that for the sake of simplic- ularly noticeable for the two most ac- lites and capsules for the Rosaviakos- ity, we count all the Long March mod- tive vehicles, which accounted for mos, the Russian space agency, or mil- els as one and break out the Zenits 29% of launches in 2009, 36% in 2010, itary satellites for Russia’s ministry of into either land-launched or sea- and 44% in 2011. defense. This started to change dra- launched models.] It is clear that the top two rockets matically in 1999, when the Soyuz be- In other words, last year’s launch are increasingly driving the launch ser- gan to be used for launching Global- activities were slightly more concen- vices market. In 2009, it was Soyuz star mobile communications satellites trated, with 92% of all launches under- and Proton. In 2010 and again last to LEO. That year, seven Soyuz vehi- taken by the 12 most active rockets— year it was Long March and Soyuz. cles successfully launched Globalstar Russia’s Soyuz, China’s Long March, In short, Soyuz and Long March satellites, in batches of five. Over the past decade, Soyuz has been used most often to launch Soyuz manned crew transport capsules to the ISS and Progress unmanned resupply capsules—increasingly so, given the drawdown of the space shuttle pro- gram. During this time, however, Ari- anespace has invested in helping to develop the Soyuz 2.1a and 2.1b and in marketing them commercially. In 2010, Soyuz was again being used to launch Globalstars. On October 19 of that year, a Soyuz 2.1a successfully launched six Globalstars from Tyura- tam, Kazakhstan. On July 16, 2011, a 2.1a launched six Globalstars, this time from Ariane- space’s main launch facilities at Kou- rou, French Guiana. The first Soyuz 2.1b from Kourou followed on Octo- ber 21. That mission carried two Gal- ileo navigation satellites for ESA. On December 17, another 2.1a lifted off from Kourou, carrying small French and Chilean imaging satellites, fol- lowed by a 2.1a with six Globalstars Soyuz (left) and Long March are increasingly driving the launch services market. from Tyuratam.
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and the advantage of three different launch sites (Plesetsk, Tyuratam, and Kourou), Soyuz’s growth potential is considerable. The only launch vehicle program that stands to outpace Soyuz is China Great Wall Industry’s Long March, which consists of just under a dozen rocket models that are either active or under development.
Rapid rise of Long March Although not a major player in the commercial market, Long March has been one of the most successful launch vehicle programs during the past five years. Throughout much of its history, it averaged no more than two to three missions per year. However, Long March launch rates began growing to four to five missions annually over the past decade, as China’s national space program no- ticeably expanded and built many The Soyuz lifts off on its inaugural flight from the spaceport in French Guiana. more spacecraft. These included com- munications and scientific satellites, Between Arianespace’s investment hard to recall the last time any rocket exploratory probes, and capsules, to- in and commercial marketing of Soyuz posted 19 or more launches, but the gether with the first series of demon- and the readiness of the Globalstar feat has certainly not been matched stration Beidou navigation satellites. program to use the vehicle for launch- this century. You might have to go The Chinese government also be- ing most of its satellites, Soyuz has back to the early 1990s or 1980s to the gan making a greater effort to market grown to become the industry’s most days of the Soviet Union. commercially successful medium-sized While more than 80% of Soyuz launch vehicle. It thoroughly domi- launches were for the Russian govern- nates the medium-lift segment of the ment last year, there is a trend toward market, especially now that Boeing’s more commercial customers, such as Delta II is so overpriced (more than Globalstar. About 40% of the satellites $100 million per mission) that it is es- launched by Soyuz rockets last year sentially uncompetitive. were commercial, including the two Soyuz’s growing commercial busi- Galileos. A few Soyuz launchers have ness—along with its already substantial already been contracted by ESA to civil and military activity—accounts for carry Galileo satellites, as well as by the vehicle’s 19 launches in 2011. It is O3b Networks for its constellation of eight broadband communications LAUNCH MISSIONS BY MONTH satellites at medium Earth orbit. January 4 We expect Soyuz to maintain its February 5 near monopoly of the medium-lift March 3 launch market for the foreseeable fu- April 6 ture. The only U.S. rockets that may May 5 eventually provide some competition June 7 are Space Exploration Technologies’ July 8 August 7 medium to heavy Falcon 9 and Orbital September 7 Sciences’ medium Antares (formerly October 9 known as Taurus II). November 9 With a diverse customer base, the The Falcon 9, along with the Antares, may be December 9 marketing prowess of Arianespace, the only U.S. competition for the Soyuz.
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LAUNCH MISSIONS BY VEHICLE Tianlian 1-1 was a civil data relay Soyuz 19 spacecraft and the Tansuo 3 (Shiyan 3) Long March 16 and BX-1 were scientific technology Proton 7 development satellites. Shenzhou 7 Ariane 5 5 was a manned space capsule—the first Atlas V 5 manned mission for the Shenzhou Zenit 4 program and the first to feature a Delta IV 3 spacewalk by a Chinese taikonaut. Delta II 3 The remaining nine satellites H-2 3 Minotaur 3 launched by Long Marches that year were for Earth observation. At least Space shuttle 3 China has begun launching commercial satellites, PSLV 2 four of those—Shijian 6E, Shijian 6F, including the Venesat 1, for foreign customers. Dnepr 1 Yaogan 4, and Yaogan 5—were de- GSLV 1 signed for military imaging missions. launched five military imaging satel- Rockot 1 Three were disaster monitoring satel- lites—three more Yaogans and the Safir 1 lites—Chuangxin 1-2, Huan Jing 1, and Tianhu 1. Sea Launch Zenit 1 Huan Jing 2. And two were meteoro- In addition, these rockets launched Taurus 1 logical—Feng Yun 3A and 2E. three Shijian scientific satellites, the The four Long March launches in Chaang’e-2 Moon probe, the Feng Long March commercially to other 2009 suggested that the previous year’s Yun 3B meteorological satellite, and countries with which it had developed record number of flights might have the Zhongxing 20A military communi- closer political and economic ties—na- been an anomaly, but that thought cations satellite. tions such as Venezuela and Nigeria. was quickly put to rest in 2010 when Had Soyuz not had such an unusu- During 2007-2008, Long March rockets the program successfully carried out a ally stellar year in 2011, Long March lofted Nigcomsat 1 and Simon Bolivar total of 15 missions. In fact, the slow- would have led the world in number 1 (Venesat 1) communications satel- down was due to an extremely un- of launches for the second consecu- lites for Nigerian Communication Sat- usual failure (the first in 13 years) by a tive year, with a total of 16—although ellite and the Venezuelan Ministry of Long March on August 31, 2009. one of those (on August 18) was a fail- Science and Technology, respectively. The problem was attributed to a ure. The program continued to benefit But by 2008, a much more diverse malfunction of the CZ-3B’s third stage, from a full manifest of Chinese civil and ambitious Chinese space program caused by a burnthrough of one of the and military satellites, including three and some initial success at marketing stage’s YF-75 engine gas generators. more Beidous, two Yaogans, a Shen- launch services abroad combined to This resulted in the placement of In- zhou, a Chuangxin, and a Tianlian, produce a record number of missions donesia’s Palapa D1 commercial com- but also three commercial satellites for for Long March. Seemingly overnight, munications satellite in a lower than foreign customers. the rocket posted 11 launches that planned orbit. With the launch of three telecom- year, matching Russia’s heavy-lift Pro- The 15 launches in 2010 set an- munications/broadcasting satellites in ton as the most prolific launch pro- other record for Long March and 2011—Paksat 1R for the Pakistan Tele- gram. Suddenly, Long March had made it the most active of all the communications Authority on August joined Soyuz, Proton, Delta II, and Ar- launch programs in the world. It sur- 11, Eutelsat W3C on October 7, and iane 5 as one of the upper-tier rockets passed both Proton and Soyuz, which Nigcomsat-1R for Nigerian Communi- in terms of activity level. had experienced one of their most cation Satellite on December 19—the In less than a decade, Long March successful launch years in recent Long March program seems finally to went from being a low-launch-rate memory, with 12 missions each. And have made a breakthrough in the in- program posting two to three missions again, nearly all those launches by ternational launch market. a year to a medium-rate one averaging Long March were for the Chinese gov- Combined with its captive and in- four to five, and finally to a high-rate ernment. The only exception to this creasingly diverse and robust domestic one with 11. The growth was fueled was the Chinasat 6A for China Satellite market, its successful penetration of almost entirely by the Chinese space Communications. emerging markets in Africa, Central program. The most common types of Chi- Asia, and South America, and more re- If you look at the 15 spacecraft nese spacecraft launched that year cently the mature and lucrative Euro- launched by Long March rockets in were civil navigation and military im- pean market, the business potential is 2008, all but two—the Simon Bolivar 1 aging satellites. Long Marches orbited perhaps more promising for Long for Venezuela and the Chinasat 9 di- five Beidou satellites for China’s pro- March than for any other launch vehi- rect TV broadcast satellite for China posed Compass navigation system, cle anywhere. Marco Cáceres Satellite Communications—were for which will consist of 35 satellites Teal Group the Chinese government. within the next decade. They also [email protected]
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