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China's Posture in Space. Implications for Europe CHINA´S POSTURE IN SPACE IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE Report 3, June 2007 coordinated by Wolfgang Rathgeber, ESPI China Report, June 2007 1 1 This work has been made possible thanks to the following contributors: ¾ Joachim GLAUBITZ (formerly with Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin) ¾ Keith HAYWARD (Royal Aeronautical Society, London) ¾ Isabelle SOURBÈS-VERGER (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris) The texts about the regional perceptions of China in chapter 3 are based on contributions from Thomas KUNZE (Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Moscow), Ram JAKHU (McGill University, Montreal), Emmanuel PUIG (Institut d’Études Politiques de Bordeaux) and Kazuto SUZUKI (University of Tsukuba). In addition, competent advice was provided by Karl BERGQUIST (European Space Agency, Paris). Short Title: ESPI Report 3, June 2007 Editor, Publisher: ESPI European Space Policy Institute A-1030 Vienna, Schwarzenbergplatz 6 Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel.: +43 1 718 11 18 - 0 Fax - 99 Copyright: ESPI, June 2007 This report was funded, in part, through a contract with the EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA). Rights reserved - No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “source: ESPI Report 3, June 2007. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. Price: 11,00 EUR Printed by ESA/ESTEC Compilation, Layout and Design: M. A. Jakob/ESPI and Panthera.cc China Report, June 2007 2 China´s Posture in Space. Implications for Europe TABLE OF CONTENTS E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ............................................................................................. 3 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n ..................................................................................................... 7 2 . C h i n a a n d S p a c e ........................................................................................... 9 2.1. China – the Geostrategic Frame ....................................................................... 9 2.2. Chinese Goals in Space.................................................................................. 24 2.3. Annex .............................................................................................................. 35 3 . F o r e i g n P e r c e p t i o n s o f C h i n e s e S p a c e A c t i v i t i e s ............... 39 3.1. The US Perception.......................................................................................... 39 3.2. The Russian Perception.................................................................................. 44 3.3. The Japanese Perception ............................................................................... 49 3.4. The Indian Perception..................................................................................... 59 4 . T h e E u r o p e a n P e r s p e c t i v e ................................................................... 65 4.1. Background ..................................................................................................... 65 4.2. Sino-European Space Cooperation................................................................. 65 4.3. Chinese Galileo Involvement........................................................................... 69 4.4. The Chinese ASAT Test.................................................................................. 71 4.5. The Arms Embargo and US Security Concerns.............................................. 72 4.6. Scenarios for China’s and Europe’s Development.......................................... 74 4.7. Consequences for Europe............................................................................... 80 A c r o n y m s ................................................................................................................. 85 A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s ............................................................................................ 87 R e f e r e n c e s .............................................................................................................. 88 China Report, June 2007 1 China Report, June 2007 2 China´s Posture in Space. Implications for Europe Executive Summary This study treats China’s posture in space and Russia’s relation to China has become quite its implications for Europe. Chinese space close, as Russia seeks alliances with emerging activities, capacities and capabilities have countries to counter the dominant US been assessed before, both in public and in position. In addition, it appreciates the classified reports. Here, in contrast, the focus possibility to sell various goods like oil or is not on Chinese space activities as such. arms, although this has not translated into Rather, attention is paid to an important significant space cooperation with China yet. secondary effect, namely to the consequences of Chinese posture in To Japan, the economic aspect is also very space with regard to China’s global important in its interaction with China, but a interaction, putting special emphasis on complex mixture of rivalry and historically Europe. interweaved fates has led to a relation between love and hate. The level of Japanese space cooperation with China is quite low. China has a rapidly evolving economy that Relations between India and China are drives the country towards superpower evolving strongly, again supported by a status, changing the balance of power in the significant trade volume between both states. Asia-Pacific region. Its markets are relatively Cooperation in space matters has only free, but the political system is still a one materialized throughout the last years, not party rule far from Western democracy encompassing military aspects. The future of standards. Indo-Chinese relations is hard to predict because of potential pitfalls on the global Regionally, China is competing for leadership interaction level. with Japan, whereas its global rival is or will be the US. It’s space programme is a matter Europe so far concentrates on the economic of prestige as well as a tool to meet the needs aspect of China’s rise as well. Space of national development. Although official cooperation has been undertaken for voices have repeatedly claimed that China some time, by ESA, the Member States and strives for a peaceful rise, concerns about by industry. Galileo, being the most the military dimension of China’s space prominent example, can serve as a case study programme remain, fuelled by the recent for different aspects, including the European Chinese ASAT test. decision process in space matters that still lacks transparency. Chinese space activities are also influenced by other nations. The US see China as a potential adversary and avoid any kind of cooperation in space matters in order to preserve the technology gap between the two nations. China Report, June 2007 3 The Chinese ASAT test in January 2007 has Whatever course China takes, Europe caused a considerable amount of concern due must not only react. It has to become to the significant increase in space debris proactive and take a place in the driver’s objects it has caused. It will also impact on seat. In any case, it will have to become the boundary conditions for the international more monolithic and coherent to better negotiations in space weaponization, handle the challenges posed by an ever increasing the pressure on the US to stronger China. Strengths, weaknesses, decide between continuing to seek opportunities and threats can be graphically unchallenged dominance and returning to a depicted in a SWOT analysis as follows. spirit of cooperation. Different (not necessarily exclusive) scenarios regarding China’s and Europe’s further development can be sketched. Strengths Weaknesses overall: overall: continuous economic growth social inequality cheap labour force underdeveloped infrastructure potential for coherent action lack of democracy long term policy environmental problems dedication limited entrepreneurship human rights violation space related: space related: wide range of programmes no genuine High Tech dominance Opportunities Threats overall: overall: huge market aggressive pursuit of leadership global economy enhancement political vacuum after potential collapse diversification of strategic stakes persistent human rights violation control through cooperation ecologic degradation space related: space related: complementary capabilities and data competition in market sectors unwanted technology transfer Table 1: SWOT Analysis China China Report, June 2007 4 For the years to come, in a broader could be kept largely neutral, while approach including security safeguarding trade interest of other considerations, Europe will have to partners as well. This case by case decide whether China as a space actor is approach allows for flexibility, taking to be considered a strategic partner, an maximum profit of emerging favourable ad-hoc-partner or an adversary. Each conditions while not changing the choice implies specific consequences in geopolitical chessboard. regard to cooperation agenda, regulatory framework and industrial policy. Considering China as an adversary or a long term rival results from an A strategic partnership implies a long assessment that there are no common term alliance with mutual benefit and long term interests among China and interdependence. The cooperation Europe. Consequently, the cooperation agenda would have to cover a broad agenda in this case would
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