Methodology for Estimation of Maximum Probable Flood (MPF) Hydrograph in the Jadar River Basin Aleksandra Ilic1, Stevan Prohaska2, Vesna Tripkovic2 1Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nis, Serbia 2Institute for the Development of Water Resources "Jarosalav Cerni", Belgrade, Serbia
[email protected] Abstract This paper presents methodology for assessing the maximum runoff hydrograph on natural watercourses. The basis for the estimation of hydrograph is estimated maximum precipitation, as a dominant factor for the formation of high flows in natural conditions. Theoretically, maximum probable precipitation or MPP is the largest amount of rainfall for a specific duration, which is physically possible over catchment area in certain parts of the year. For determining maximum probability of rainfall, in the given case, a statistical approach developed by Hershfield (1961) was used. The approach was modified in 1965. For the assessment of maximum high flows we used deterministic “rainfall-runoff“ model, which is based on boundary intensity runoff method, which uses maximum precipitation as input data, taking into account most unfavorable combination of other critical factors that affect the river runoff. The paper will be illustrated through specific example of maximum probable hydrograph calculation in the Jadar river basin in the western part of Serbia. Keywords: maximum probable precipitation, maximum probable flood, boundary intensity runoff method Introduction Maximum probable flood (MPF) represents runoff that can be expected as a result of the most unfavorable combination of critical meteorological and hydrological conditions in the analyzed basin. The procedure for the determination of the maximum probable flood is based on previously obtained probable maximum precipitation (PMP), which can occur in critical climatic conditions.