NIGERIA Borno and Yobe States Market Monitoring October 2020-ISSUE 41

SavingLives and Changing Lives Highlights

• Production forecasts of 2020/2021 for cereals is expected to be slightly above normal. Harvest of rice, millet and sorghum is ongoing in most parts of the country. Key staple prices (rice, maize, beans and peanuts) generally remained stable across the monitored markets of Borno and Yobe States. The price of maize and red beans decreased below its 3-year average in most of monitored states, with Borno currently between 15 to 25 percent.

• Over the past three months, the retail prices of imported and local rice either decreased or stabilized across all monitored markets in Borno and Yobe States. These decrease were more noticeable in (14%), Nguru (15%) and Gashua (17%) markets of Yobe.

• Similarly, the price of maize has remained largely stable or decreased marginally, in Borno as compared to three months ago. Likewise in Yobe, prices decreased or stabilized across most monitored markets excluding and markets, where price of maize increased by 12% and 20% respectively.

• For red beans, prices either remained stable or increased slightly in Borno State. This was more significant in Abbaganaram and Monday markets where prices increased by 12%. In the same vein, prices increased in Gujba (27%), (59%), and Gulani (82%) markets of , due to increased transportation cost and reduced availability of the commodity.

• Between September and October, the cost of 70% of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), for a family of five decreased slightly from 19,245.87 Naira to 18,965.73 Naira in Maiduguri and Jere in Borno State. Likewise, the SMEB decreased by 9 percent from 18,399.15 Naira in September to 16,681.35 Naira in October 2020 in , Yobe State. The slight decrease in the SMEB, is attributed to the retail price decrease in rice, ground nut and maize.

• The start of the early harvests in October and the stable or declining staple food prices are expected to lead to slight improvements in food security conditions. In the short run, the purchasing power and food security situation of market reliant households may slightly be reprieved. Introduction

The market price bulletin provides a synopsis of the changes observed in food prices and the impact of these changes on food access for vulnerable households in the Borno and Yobe States. It is against this backdrop, that WFP continues to monitor prices of food commodities to understand the market implications and impact on the vulnerable and market-dependent populations and how they are affected by food price changes.

In Borno State, the monitored markets include Monday market, Abbaganaram, Budum, Kasuwan Shanu, Bullumkutu, Baga Road, Tashan Bama, Custom market. In Yobe State, Damaturu, Bursari, Gujba, , , Geidam, , , Bade, Nguru and Gulani markets were monitored (Figure 1).

Borno and Yobe States Monthly Market Monitoring Report October 2020 - ISSUE 41 1

Figure 1 Market price monitoring locations in Borno and Yobe States

Maiduguri (Borno) market locations Yobe market locations

Food basket monitoring

The Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) outlines the minimum food items needed for survival of a household in a month. The basket comprises basic energy food requirements of 2,100 kilocalories per person per day and includes food items like rice, maize, red beans, palm oil, vegetable oil, salt and sugar, consumed by the majority of households in the Northeast.

Between September and October the cost of 70% of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), for a family of five decreased slightly from 19,245.87 Naira to 18,965.73 Naira in Maiduguri and Jere, Borno State. Likewise, the SMEB decreased by 9 percent from 18,399.15 Naira in September to 16,681.35 Naira in October 2020 in Damaturu, Yobe State. Also in Yusufari, Bade and Gujba, the SMEB decreased by 8 percent, 9 percent and 12 percent respectively.

The observed decrease and stability in the SMEB stems from the month on month decrease or stability in prices of rice, peanuts, maize and red beans. The SMEB consists of key staples (rice, maize, beans and peanuts) which account for 85 percent of the food basket. Important to point

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Table 1: Transfer value calculated for 5 household members in Maiduguri & Jere markets for one month

HOUSEHOLD SIZE 5 Price/kg- Naira Price/HH/month Food Item gms/day/pp Kc/day/pp gms/HH/day gms/HH/month kg/HH/month (MPM) (Naira) Rice 150 540 750 22,500 22.50 609 13,703 Maize 250 913 1250 37,500 37.50 169 6,338 Beans 75 255 375 11,250 11.25 245 2,756 Palm oil 10 88 50 1,500 1.50 519 779 Groundnut 15 85 75 2,250 2.25 375 843 Sugar 10 39 50 1,500 1.50 479 718 G/nut oil/Veg Oil 20 177 100 3,000 3.00 519 1,557 Salt 5 0 25 750 0.75 111 83 Onion 8 3 40 1,200 1.20 265 318 Total 2,100 NGN 27,093.90 Cost food basket at 70%: 70% 1,470 NGN 18,965.73 Per capita based on 70% transfer value NGN 3,793.15

Table 2: Transfer value calculated for 5 household members in Damaturu markets for one month

HOUSEHOLD SIZE 5 gms/d gms/HH/d gms/HH/m kg/HH/mont Price/kg- Naira Price/HH/mont Food Item Kc/day/pp ay/pp ay onth h (MPM) h (Naira) Rice 150 540 750 22,500 22.50 500 11,250 Maize 250 913 1250 37,500 37.50 180 6,750 Beans 75 255 375 11,250 11.25 200 2,250 Palm oil 10 88 50 1,500 1.50 400 600 Groundnut 15 85 75 2,250 2.25 364 819 Sugar 10 39 50 1,500 1.50 461 692 G/nut oil/Veg Oil 20 177 100 3,000 3.00 400 1,200 Salt 5 0 25 750 0.75 160 120 Onion 8 3 40 1,200 1.20 125 150 Total 2,100 NGN 23,830.50 Cost food basket at 70%: 70% 1,470 NGN 16,681.35 Per capita based on 70% transfer value NGN 3,336.27

Trend in the cost of SMEB 25,000.00

20,000.00

15,000.00 NGN 10,000.00

5,000.00

0.00

MMC & Jere Damaturu

Food items price trends in Borno and Yobe markets Overall, food prices began to decline or remain the same across most monitored markets in Bor- no and Yobe states. A further downward trend in the prices of maize, local rice, millet and sor- ghum is expected in response inflow from the ongoing harvest.

Borno and Yobe States Monthly Market Monitoring Report October 2020 - ISSUE 41 3

Maize, imported rice and red beans price trend in MMC and Jere Figure 5: Depicts the nominal price of markets some key staples: maize flour, red 900 beans, ground nuts, local and imported 800 rice in the monitored markets in MMC 700 and Jere of Borno state. Compared to 600

2019, the average price of, groundnuts, 500 NGN red beans, local and imported rice in- 400 creased in Borno by 7%, 20%, 35% and 300

38% respectively. The price of local and 200 imported rice increased above its 3-year 100

average in most of monitored states, 0

Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

Jan-20 Jun-20 Jun-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jan-19 Jun-19

Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-16

Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20

Sep-16 Sep-17 Apr-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Sep-20

Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19

Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19

Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

with Borno currently at about 30 per- Mar-17

May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 cent. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Maize flour Red beans Imported Rice Local rice Ground nuts

Maiduguri Markets Monitoring Update October 2020

% Change in Degree of % Change in Degree of current price change current price change

Commodity

Market

Market

Currrentprice Currrentprice

1 1 Month 3 Months 1 Month 3 Months 1 Month 3 Months 1 Month 3 Months Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 430 1.2% 2.4% 450 2% 4.7% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 210 0.0% 4.0% 220 2% 2.3% Onion (Grams) 110 0.0% 4.8% 130 4% 8.3% Palm oil (Litre) 410 0.0% 0.0% 595 1% 0.8% Red beans (1.25 Kg) 280 9.4% 12.0% 315 5% 6.8% Imported rice (1.25 Kg) 860 0.0% 1.2% 890 1% 0.6%

Local rice (1.25 Kg) 530 1.9% 2.9% 595 3% 4.4% Monday market Monday

Vegetable oil (Litre) 420 1.2% 0.0% market Bullumkutu 595 0% 0.6% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 185 2.8% 12.1% 220 10% 18.9%

Peanuts (Kg) 435 -2.2% -1.1% 320 5% 10% Maize flour (Kg) 220 2.3% 4.8% 185 0% 6% Onion (Grams) 110 0.0% 0.0% 100 0% 0% Palm oil (Litre) 405 -1.2% -1.2% 520 0% 1% Red beans (Kg) 280 7.7% 12.0% 330 5% 6% Imported rice (Kg) 870 0.6% 1.4% 840 1% 2%

Local rice (Kg) 545 0.0% 1.9% 535 0% 4%

Abba Ganaram Abba Custom market Custom Vegetable oil (Litre) 420 0.0% 0.0% 520 1% 2% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 190 5.6% 8.6% 170 3% 3%

Peanuts (Kg) 435 0.0% 2.4% 450 3% 7% Maize flour (Kg) 220 2.3% 4.8% 235 -6% -6% Onion (Grams) 130 3.6% 8.0% 90 0% 0% Palm oil (Litre) 550 0.0% 1.9% 585 1% 1% Red beans (Kg) 295 3.6% 5.4% 320 3% 9% Imported rice (Kg) 830 0.0% 1.8% 830 4% 6%

Local rice (Kg) 560 1.8% 3.7% 480 5% 9% Kasuwan Shanu Kasuwan

Baga Road market Road Baga Vegetable oil (Litre) 570 0.1% 0.9% 560 1% 3% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 195 5.6% 14.7% 165 0% 10%

Peanuts (Kg) 450 2.3% 5.9% 330 5% 6% Maize flour (Kg) 225 -2.2% -2.2% 180 3% 6% Onion (Grams) 85 0.0% 6.3% 100 0% 5% Palm oil (Litre) 580 0.9% 0.9% 510 -1% 0% Red beans (Kg) 320 4.9% 10.3% 320 5% 7% Imported rice (Kg) 835 5.7% 9.9% 870 2% 5%

Local rice (Kg) 485 4.3% 9.0% Bama Tashan 515 0% 5% Budum market Budum Vegetable oil (Litre) 560 0.0% 1.8% 515 -1% 0% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 175 6.1% 12.7% 170 3% 3% Price increase above normal price fluctuation Price fluctuation is considered normal if Normal Price Fluctuation Prices in Naira price change is within 5% for 1 month or Price decrease below normal price fluctuation within 10% for 3 months Borno and Yobe States Monthly Market Monitoring Report October 2020 - ISSUE 41 4

Yobe Markets Monitoring Update October 2020

% Change in Degree of % Change in Degree of current price change current price change

Commodity

Market

Market

Currrentprice

Currrentprice

1 1 Month

3 3 Months

1 1 Month

3 3 Months

1 1 Month

3 3 Months

1 1 Month 3 3 Months Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 350 7.7% 7.7% 400 0.0% 0.0% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 275 -8.3% 0.0% 190 -24.0% -24.0% Onion (Grams) 225 50.0% 12.5% 70 40.0% -30.0% Palm oil (Litre) 380 5.6% 11.8% 400 0.0% 0.0% Red beans (1.25 Kg) 350 11.1% 27.3% 250 -16.7% -13.8%

Imported rice (1.25 Kg) 650 -18.8% -7.1% Nguru 700 0.0% 3.7% Potiskum Local rice (1.25 Kg) 600 -9.8% 9.1% 425 -29.2% -15.0% Vegetable oil (Litre) 475 5.6% 6.7% 400 0.0% 0.0% Yam (1 tuber) 325 0.0% -13.3% 350 0.0% -30.0%

Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 400 0.0% 0.0% 400 0.0% 33.3% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 190 -18.2% -6.3% 200 -20.0% 0.0% Onion (Grams) 70 0.0% -50.0% 50 0.0% 0.0% Palm oil (Litre) 400 0.0% 0.0% 400 33.3% 0.0%

Red beans (1.25 Kg) 250 -16.7% -9.1% 350 0.0% 59.1% Gashua Imported rice (1.25 Kg) 700 0.0% 0.0% Geidam NA 0.0% 0.0% Local rice (1.25 Kg) 425 -29.2% -17.5% 500 -16.7% 0.0% Vegetable oil (Litre) 400 0.0% 5.0% 400 14.3% 0.0% Yam (1 tuber) 350 -12.5% -30.0% 350 0.0% -6.7%

Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 350 0.0% 16.7% 450 -25.0% -18.2% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 280 1.8% 12.0% 213 -29.2% -5.6% Onion (Grams) 100 11.1% 25.0% 125 25.0% 25.0% Palm oil (Litre) 350 0.0% 112.1% 375 7.1% 7.1%

Red beans (1.25 Kg) 400 48.1% 81.8% 375 26.9% 17.9% Gujba Gulani Imported rice (1.25 Kg) NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% Local rice (1.25 Kg) 550 4.8% 10.0% 475 -24.0% -13.6% Vegetable oil (Litre) 420 5.0% 5.0% 450 7.1% 12.5% Yam (1 tuber) 300 0.0% 0.0% 600 0.0% 0.0% Price increase above normal price fluctuation Price fluctuation is considered normal if Normal Price Fluctuation Prices in Naira price change is within 5% for 1 month or Price decrease below normal price fluctuation within 10% for 3 months

Conclusion

Increased supply of newly harvested grains in the market is contributing to the stabiliz- ing or decreasing trend in prices of some staples over the past three months. This is likely to ease pressure on the purchasing power of market-dependent households. How- ever – despite the recent stability in food prices, enduring conflict and access con- straints further restrain income-earning opportunities for vulnerable households.

For further information please contact: VAM Team, WFP , [email protected] [email protected]

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