NATO TAKES the FIFTH Alan W

ESSAY NATO TAKES THE FIFTH Alan W. Dowd

Map of NATO membership. Source: Wikimedia Commons. he purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty is “to promote stability and Twell-being in the North Atlantic area” and “to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization” of its signatories. Toward that end, Article II of into something of a global NATO to the dangers posed by the treaty that gave birth to gendarme: Between 1995 and Moscow, but Vladimir Putin’s NATO commits members of 2011, NATO stamped out eth- Russia had been threatening the alliance to “encourage eco- nic-cleansing in Bosnia and NATO interests and NATO nomic collaboration.” Article III Kosovo, deployed peacekeepers members for more than a calls on members to “maintain to those Balkan battlegrounds, decade. and develop their…capacity to marched into Afghanistan to resist armed attack.” Article fight al Qaeda and the Taliban, In 2001, for example, Russia IX creates a political council formed the basis of multina- laid claim to half the Arctic and a military committee to tional armadas to intercept Circle, disregarding the in- shape the common defense. weapons of mass destruction terests of the United States, Article X allows for expansion (WMDs) on the high seas and to Canada, Denmark, Norway, of the alliance, which was once combat piracy, airlifted African and Iceland—NATO members a club of 12 nations clustered Union peacekeepers, trained all—and underlining its claims around the Atlantic Ocean but Iraqi soldiers, and prevented in a brazen military context: now encompasses a wide swath a Bosnia-style bloodletting in In 2008, a Russian general re- vealed plans to train “troops of the northern hemisphere— Libya. Some observers saw in enfolding three continents, 29 that could be engaged in Arctic these post-Cold War missions nations, 50 percent of glob- combat,” adding, “Wars these the outlines of “an expedition- al GDP, and 898 million peo- days are won and lost well be- ary alliance” on call to intervene ple. However, the heart of the fore they are launched.” By anywhere. Yet new threats and treaty and the NATO alliance 2016, Russia had stood up six old enemies emerged in NATO’s is Article V, which declares: new bases above the Arctic Circle, backyard, forcing the alliance to “An armed attack against one opened 16 ports and 13 airfields in or more of them in Europe or return to its traditional role of the region, and deployed sophis- North America shall be consid- deterrence. ticated surface-to-air missile ered an attack against them all.” batteries in the Arctic.

As the Cold War and the Soviet RUSSIA’S RECORD In 2003, Russia promulgat- Empire melted away, Article The 2014 invasion of Ukraine ed its “escalate to de-escalate” V diminished in importance, and annexation of Crimea may doctrine, which rationalizes and NATO reinvented itself have been what finally awoke the use of nuclear weapons to 54 (somehow) de-escalate a con- Central Europe, shutting off for East-West trust at the end of ventional conflict. natural-gas flows bound for the Cold War and a cornerstone Ukraine, Bulgaria, Hungary, of post-Cold War stability. In 2007, Putin called NATO and Greece. expansion “a serious provoca- That same year, Putin ordered tion.” Within months, Russia That same year, Russia’s mil- military forces to be scrubbed of launched a series of cyberat- itary practiced an invasion of insignia and move into Ukraine, tacks against NATO member NATO member Poland, complete annexing Crimea in the pro- Estonia, after Estonia relocat- with mock nuclear strikes. cess. Putin’s anonymous, am- ed a Soviet-era war memorial. biguous, asymmetrical war Dubbed “Web War I,” the at- In 2010, Putin unveiled a mil- against Ukraine violates the tacks crippled Estonia’s commu- itary doctrine that identified 1994 Budapest Memorandum, nications infrastructure; target- NATO’s role outside Europe, in which Moscow pledged to ed the mobile-phone network, NATO expansion, the presence “respect the independence and 9-1-1 equivalent, and largest of NATO military infrastructure sovereignty and existing bor- bank; knocked out government “closer to the borders of the ders of Ukraine” and “refrain websites; and raised the possi- Russian Federation,” deploy- from the threat or use of force,” bility of an Article V response. ment of NATO troops “on the in exchange for Ukraine sur- territories of states contiguous rendering its nuclear arsenal. In 2008, Russia invaded and with the Russian Federation,” No matter. It was “just a piece dismembered NATO aspi- and deployment of NATO mis- of paper,” as other dictators rant Georgia. By 2015, Russia sile-defense systems as the have said of other treaties. Some signed a treaty of integration “main external military dan- 10,000 have died in Putin’s war with South Ossetia, effectively gers” facing Russia. on Ukraine. annexing the region away from Georgia. In 2014, Moscow began vio- With Ukraine as a backdrop, lating the INF Treaty, which Putin warned in 2014, “This In 2009, in the dead of win- prohibits deployment of inter- country will continue to actively ter, Russia began using energy mediate-range nuclear missiles. defend the rights of Russians, supplies as a weapon against The treaty was a building block our compatriots abroad, using

The NATO compass in front of Headquarters Allied Land Command (LANDCOM) on General Vecihi Akin Garrison in Izmir, Turkey, on March 24, 2017. Tech. Sgt. Joshua T. Jasper. Source: U.S. Air Force.

55 (filling the void created after China cooled relations with Pyongyang).

Putin rationalizes his belligerence by arguing that NATO started it— that NATO’s eastward expansion violated agreements at the end of the Cold War. The problem with Putin’s version of history is that it doesn’t correspond with reality. As Mikhail Gorbachev himself conceded, “The topic of NATO expansion was not discussed at all.” So, the alliance didn’t double-cross its way to the Russian border. In fact, NATO grew through a transparent process that allowed East European states to pursue membership on The greater coat of arms of Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. The their own volition—a process that motto translates: The price of freedom is vigilance. Source: Wikimedia Commons. encouraged political, institutional, and economic reforms that actually the entire range of available were 26-percent larger than diminished tensions with post-So- means.” Given that there are in 2014, and 5.9 percent high- viet Russia. Intent on changing the millions of ethnic Russians in er in 2016. To be sure, Putin’s settled outcomes (and borders) of Ukraine and the Baltics—and military is a shell of the Red the Cold War, Putin won’t be con- that Putin has reserved for him- Army. But it pays to recall that fused by the facts. self the right to determine when, his military-spending binge where, and whether they need to occurred as NATO slashed mili- All of this underscores why be defended—this is a recipe for tary spending. As the Brookings Article V is so important today. something far more complicated Institution’s Robert Kagan than a new cold war. writes early during Russia’s rearmament, “NATO has become FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP In 2015, Putin provided dip- more benign just as Russia “We put ourselves, by our own lomatic and military cover for has become more aggressive.” will and by necessity, into de- Assad’s beastly war in Syria. Also in 2016, Russia hacked fensive alliances with coun- Russian military forces have into the U.S. political system tries all around the globe,” “bolstered the Bashar al-Assad in an attempt to sway the out- President John Kennedy re- regime, targeted moderate op- come of the presidential elec- minded the American people position elements, compounded tion. Russia has conducted in 1963. Regrettably, two suc- human suffering, and compli- similar operations against the cessive administrations have cated U.S. and coalition opera- Netherlands, Estonia, Germany, failed to recognize this truth. tions against the Islamic State Italy, Montenegro, and Britain. Candidate Donald Trump called of Iraq and Syria,” reported U.S. NATO “obsolete…because of Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, Also in 2016, NATO concluded the fact they don’t focus on ter- military commander of NATO. that “Russia’s aggressive ac- rorism.” He even suggested he tions” and “willingness to attain would come to the defense of In 2016, Putin reactivated the political goals by the threat and NATO members under attack— 1st Guards Tank Army, a large use of force…fundamentally an ironclad requirement of the armored force based in west- challenge the alliance” and “un- North Atlantic Treaty—only if ern Russia equipped with 500 dermine peace, security and they had “fulfilled their obliga- main battle tanks—the latest ev- stability across the region.” tions to us.” idence of Russia’s rearmament under Putin. Between 2004 Finally, in 2017, we learned that As the above litany of Russian mis- and 2013, Moscow increased Russia is arming the Taliban chief and aggression underscores, military spending 108 percent. in Afghanistan and supply- NATO is anything but obsolete. Russia’s 2015 military outlays ing North Korea with jet fuel NATO’s Article V commitment

56 is more important today than vast sums of money to NATO… the alliance, a NATO official at any time since 1991. While the United States must be paid emphasized that the extension it’s fair to ask hard questions more for the powerful, and very of U.S. air power “expires on about Europe’s contribution expensive, defense it provides to Monday”—a bruising metaphor to the common defense, those Germany.” for American leadership during who ask such questions must the Obama presidency. also answer a question: Would Worse, rather than an unequiv- they rather the United States ocal endorsement of NATO’s In 2013, after the French mili- face a revisionist Russia and a all-for-one clause, he cryptically tary requested U.S. air support virulent jihadist assault on the noted during the 2017 NATO in its fight against jihadists in West alone? “If we didn’t have summit, “We will never forsake Mali, the Obama administration NATO today, we’d need to create the friends who stood by our sent Paris an invoice. it,” Defense Secretary James side.” Doubly worse, he deleted a Mattis concluded. “NATO is sentence from his NATO speech That same year, when Obama vital to our interests.” reaffirming Washington’s com- erased his “red line” in Syria, mitment to Article V. A week the French military was forced As to NATO and the war on terror, later, he declared, “Absolutely, to stand down and shelve plans the only time NATO has invoked I’d be committed to Article V.” for punitive action against Article V was in response to Yet because his NATO summit Assad. the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ever speech was silent on Article V, since, the alliance has devoted that statement came across as an Also in 2013, the Obama ad- military resources, diplomatic afterthought. ministration—ever committed energy, economic treasure, and to a Russian “reset,” regardless human life to fighting terror- Trump’s zig-zagging rhetoric sug- of Russian behavior—withdrew gests undependability, which is not ism. For anyone who cared to the last remaining American look, NATO documents in 2002, what NATO needs. tanks from Europe. It was 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, the first time since 1944 that 2012, 2014, and 2016 affirm Regrettably, less-than-ful- Europe was left unprotected NATO’s commitment to fight- some support for NATO in by American tanks. That deci- ing terrorism. European and Washington predates the Trump sion sent precisely the wrong Canadian members of NATO presidency. In 2009, President message; it has since been have lost 1,046 personnel fight- Barack Obama unilaterally corrected. ing terrorism in Afghanistan, pulled the plug on missile-de- and NATO members form the fense plans for Europe—plans In 2014, when Ukraine asked core of the anti-ISIS campaign. endorsed by NATO —in hopes of mollifying Moscow. Instead Washington for arms to defend After the election, President of planting permanent ground- itself, Obama sent nonlethal Donald Trump began to soften based defenses in Poland and sup- aid. Ukrainian President Petro his rhetoric. “We strongly support radars in the Czech Republic, Poroshenko’s response spoke vol- port NATO, an alliance forged Obama chose to deploy an imper- umes: “One cannot win the war through the bonds of two world manent variant of a sea-based mis- with blankets.” wars that dethroned fascism, sile-defense system. Worse, he did and a Cold War that defeat- so “without even informing the In 2016, Obama publicly crit- ed communism,” he declared, Polish prime minister in a time- icized Britain and France for adding that NATO is “no longer ly manner,” as historian George their handling of Libya and obsolete.” However, his contin- Weigel recalls. Poland’s Defense Syria, noting that “[f]ree riders ued cageyness about Article V Ministry called Obama’s reversal aggravate me” and then boast- and brusque treatment of allies “catastrophic.” The Czechs angrily ing how he lectured Britain’s leaves room for doubt inside the rejected Obama’s plans as “a con- prime minister, “You have to alliance and miscalculation in- solation prize.” pay your fair share.” side the Kremlin. In 2011, Obama put a time limit While the average American might For instance, after a summit on America’s commitment to not know it from Trump’s words with Chancellor Angela Merkel NATO’s intervention in Libya. (spoken and unspoken) or Obama’s of Germany, Trump used his In fact, when Washington actions, NATO plays an import- preferred medium—a tweet— agreed to extend operations ant role for its most important to announce: “Germany owes after an urgent request from member: the United States.

57 An F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, takes off at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, on October 12, 2017. The U.S. Air Force has deployed F-22 Raptors, Airmen, and associated equipment to RAF Lakenheath for a flying training deployment to conduct air training with other Europe-based U.S. aircraft and NATO allies. Senior Airman Malcolm Mayfield. Source: U.S. Air Force.

NATO represents a founda- chronic “underfunding of of GDP on defense, down from 1.2 tion stone in the liberal inter- NATO,” warned of the “demili- percent in 2000. Britain is using national order, an insurance tarization of Europe.” What was accounting tricks to stay above policy against great-power “a blessing in the 20th century,” the 2-percent standard, shifting war, a readymade structure he observed, had become “an monies from the Foreign Office for building coalitions of the impediment to achieving real to defense. willing, a vital bridge to global security and lasting peace in hotspots, a force-multiplier for the 21st.” “The situation may be worse,” U.S. power. As several former Mark Thomson of the Australian NATO commanders conclude, Neither was Trump’s admo- Strategic Policy Institute ob- “There is no hope for the U.S. nition unwarranted. “We serves. “Pensions account for to sustain its role as the world’s still do not have fair burden 33 percent of Belgium’s defense sole superpower without the sharing within our alliance,” spending, 24 percent of France’s Europeans as allies.” The gen- NATO Secretary General Jens and 17 percent of Germany’s.” erals know what the politicians Stoltenberg conceded. During Pensions don’t deter enemies. ignore: Protecting our inter- the Cold War, the U.S. account- ests and our civilization, en- ed for 50 percent of NATO mil- What’s most frustrating about suring the free flow of goods itary spending; today it is 72 these figures—and the lack of and resources, preserving the percent. will reflected in them—is that postwar order, defending the NATO allies have proven their To rectify this problem, NATO global commons, responding to capacity to make adequate in- in 2006 called on members “to natural disasters and manmade vestments in defense. In 1980, commit a minimum of 2 percent chaos—these missions depend European members devoted an of their GDP to spending on de- on NATO infrastructure in plac- fense.” A decade-plus later, only average of 3.7 percent of GDP to es like Lakenheath, Ramstein, five members meet that standard. defense. Britain spent 5.1 per- Morón, Aviano, and Incirlik. cent of GDP on defense, Turkey European members invest an aver- 4.3 percent, Germany 3.3 per- age of 1.4 percent on defense today. cent, France 4.1 percent, Italy FAILURE OF FOLLOWERSHIP Turkey invested 5 percent of GDP 2.4 percent. In 1990, European Trump may have put it in- on defense in 2000, 1.5 percent members devoted an average delicately, but his call for the today; France 2.5 percent in 2000, of 3 percent of GDP to defense; rest of the alliance to do more 1.7 percent today; Italy 2 percent in Britain 4 percent, Turkey 4.9 was not unprecedented. In 2000, 1.1 percent today; Germany percent, Germany 2.8 percent, 2010, then-Defense Secretary 1.5 percent in 2000, 1.1 percent to- France 3.6 percent, Italy 2.1 Robert Gates, pointing to the day. Canada spends just 0.9 percent percent.

58 Years of underfunding have The U.S. Army has 26,000 power in Europe.” This is led to “alarming deficiencies troops in Europe today, down sophistry. Germany deployed in the state of NATO prepared- from 40,000 in 2012, down 585,000 troops as recently as 1990- ness,” according to the British from 213,000 in 1989. Lt. Gen. 91. Today, it fields 185,000. government: Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Moreover, how is it fair for the Army-Europe, said he is trying rest of NATO to come up to 2 The Royal Navy has been re- “to make 30,000 [troops] look percent, while Germany—the duced from 89 ships to 65. and feel like 300,000.” geographic center of the alli- Britain had two aircraft car- ance and the richest, most pop- riers in 2008 but none in ser- Equally troubling, as NATO’s ulous European member of the vice today. Britain’s combat-air- capabilities have declined, so alliance—refuses? craft fleet has shrunk from 189 has its will. There was a time warplanes to 149; the Joint when Europe’s spirit was will- The way some allies approached Helicopter Command had 257 ing, but the flesh was weak. NATO’s first Article V opera- aircraft in 2008 but just 164 Today, not only is the flesh atro- tion did more to tarnish Article by 2016. phied, but the spirit seems un- V than burnish it: Italy wouldn’t willing to fight the disease. permit its fighter-bombers to Only 42 of Germany’s 109 carry bombs. German troops top-of-the-line Eurofighters For example, there isn’t majority were required to shout warn- are in flying condition. At the support in Britain, Spain, Italy, ings to hostiles—in three lan- height of the Cold War, West Germany, France, or Poland for guages—before opening fire. Germany had 2,125 tanks. defending a fellow NATO ally Denmark refused requests Today, Germany has 225. Just from Russian attack. for additional fighter-bomb- 70 of Germany’s 180 armored ers. Germany, Italy, and Spain vehicles are capable of deploy- Turkey is drifting away from avoided Afghanistan’s restive ment. German troops used NATO, Europe, and the West. south. Thus, the U.S. contribut- black-painted broomsticks to ed 71 percent of all forces, while simulate machine guns during In response to the 2-percent tar- non-NATO members Australia, a 2014 NATO exercise. get, German Foreign Minister Georgia, and Sweden deployed Sigmar Gabriel said, “I don’t more troops than many founding France eliminated 8,000 per- know any German politician members of the alliance. The take- sonnel in 2014, mothballed 19 who would claim that is reach- away from Afghanistan: Actions warships between 2009 and able nor desirable. One has to speak louder than words. 2012, and slashed 30 percent ask whether it would really of its air fleet between 2008 calm Germany’s neighbors if In Libya in 2011, with the and 2013. we turned into a big military U.S. “leading from behind”

Soldiers from the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, and the United States participate in a ceremony hosted by the Estonian Defense Force which was intended to officially welcome NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group to Estonia. The ceremony was held at the TAPA Army Base, Estonia, on April 20, 2017. Visual Information Specialist Jason Johnston. Source: U.S. Army.

59 Romanian troops in Cincu, Romania, as they prepare to take part in integration training with NATO troops from Poland and Spain on Exercise Noble Jump 17 on June 9, 2017. Warrant Officer Dan Harmer (GBR Army). Source: NATO. and conducting a “time-lim- aggression—and keeping the Russian counterparts is true of ited” war, a hamstrung NATO peace—in Europe. NATO should Putin and his generals: “There was found woefully lacking in devote its combined resourc- is nothing they admire so much precision munitions, target- es to that task, while ad hoc as strength, and there is nothing ing and jamming capabilities, partnerships take on security for which they have less respect mid-air refuelers, reconnais- challenges beyond the North than weakness.” sance platforms, drones, com- Atlantic area. mand-and-control assets—ev- Devoting 2 percent of GDP to erything needed to conduct a By more, it’s necessary for the common defense sends a 21st-century air war. The take- NATO to spend more on de- signal of seriousness and sol- away from Libya: You get what fense, devote more attention to idarity, and it will prevent you pay for. Eastern Europe, and talk more NATO’s devolution from an all- about the problems Putin has for-one alliance into a one-for- created. all public good. THE UPSIDE What does NATO need to do go- Build Up The good news is that many ing forward? The short answer: “In more peaceful times, it allies are getting serious about more and less. was right to reduce defense defense. Sixteen allies increased spending,” Stoltenberg soberly defense spending in 2015; 22 did By less, it may be necessary for observed. “But we do not live so last year. NATO to rethink out-of-area in peaceful times.” missions in order to focus on its Until Russia is fully and tru- Not surprisingly, allies closest primary mission. That doesn’t ly liberalized—something that in proximity to Russia are mov- mean those missions should won’t occur until Putin is gone, ing the most rapidly. Lithuania, end—just that NATO shouldn’t at best—building up the com- Estonia, and Latvia will tri- shoulder them. NATO may have mon defense is the best way ple military spending by 2024. been helpful as a global gen- to ensure Article V is never in- Latvia and Lithuania will reach darme in the post-Cold War era, voked on the European conti- the 2-percent mark next year. but its core mission is deterring nent. What Churchill said of his Romania will reach 2 percent

60 this year. Estonia and Poland are to defend the easternmost mem- their soil is the same reason already at the 2-percent standard. bers of the alliance. U.S. troops U.S. troops were based in West are spearheading the effort, Berlin during the Cold War and France is on track to reach the alongside Canadian, German, have been based along the 38th 2-percent threshold by 2022. and British units. Parallel since 1953: The pres- Norway increased defense ence of American troops sends spending 9.8 percent in 2016. Thoughtful critics of NATO’s a message that crossing this The Czech Republic will in- decision to stand up a more line means you are going to war crease the size of its military tangible deterrent presence and against the United States—no 63 percent by 2025. Britain thus reassure NATO’s most- ambiguity or question marks. is deploying two new aircraft at-risk members worry about That certainty of response— carriers bristling with doz- their remote location and stra- the promise that the costs of ens of F-35B fighter-bomb- tegic-depth issues. aggression will be greater than ers. Germany plans to add any potential benefits—is the 20,000 troops by 2024. And There are two answers to this essence of deterrence. after years of waning commit- line of concern. First, few places ment, Washington quadrupled were less defendable than West Within easy range of Putin’s un- military spending for Europe Berlin during the Cold War, marked armies and clever brand in 2016 (from $789 million to which was literally surrounded of anonymous warfare, Eastern $3.4 billion); added another by Soviet bloc armies. Yet NATO Europe’s leaders understand $1.4 billion in 2017; and is per- maintained forces in that re- that if Putin follows his Ukraine manently basing three brigades mote outpost of freedom to face playbook and covertly violates in Europe. down the Red Army. the sovereignty of the Baltics, he will force NATO to blink or Stand Up Second, strategic-depth and fire back. Neither alternative NATO must demonstrate that resupply issues were a concern leads to a happy outcome. The its security guarantee is as valid for NATO even when NATO’s former means NATO is neutral- for the newest members of the footprint was smaller and ca- ized. The latter means war. The alliance as it is for the oldest. pabilities greater. Because of best way to prevent those dire Regrettably, it has not always its size and geographic position, scenarios is through deterrent succeeded at this. Russia will always have the abil- military strength, clarity of in- ity to throw its weight around in tent, certainty of cause and ef- NATO didn’t begin developing Europe in ways America cannot, fect, and dialogue with Moscow. contingency plans for defend- which is why a credible military That’s how NATO prevented the ing the Baltics (which joined deterrent is so important. It is a Cold War from turning hot, and the alliance in 2004) until af- matter of will. it’s the best roadmap for navi- ter Russia’s 2008 invasion of gating Cold War 2.0. Georgia. Some members wor- Since NATO’s founding, the de- Speak Up ried that such planning would terrent represented by Article provoke Moscow. The very op- V has been an insurance policy NATO’s political leaders should posite is true. Putin’s assaults on against worst-case scenarios. highlight how Czar Vladimir non-NATO members Ukraine For the United States, NATO has engineered his way from and Georgia—and non-inter- diminishes the likelihood of prime minister to president to vention in the Baltics—suggest another European conflict trig- prime minister to president the that he takes Article V seriously, gering another great-power war. past 17 years; point out the vast at least for now. For NATO’s other members, freedom gap between Russia NATO is a security guarantee and its neighbors; and expose Recently, NATO defense min- backed by the United States. Putin’s assault on human rights isters approved a plan to create Without that guarantee, there by offering a platform to Putin’s new commands within the alli- is no security, as history has a enemies—journalists, religious ance “to improve the movement way of reminding those on the minorities, NGOs, and polit- of troops across the Atlantic outside looking in, from Cold ical dissidents. “A little less and within Europe.” In 2016, War Hungary to post-Cold War détente,” as President Ronald NATO authorized forward de- Ukraine. Reagan counseled, “and more ployments in the Baltics and encouragement to the dissenters Poland “to unambiguously Indeed, the reason Poland and might be worth a lot of armored demonstrate” determination the Baltics want U.S. troops on divisions.”

61 Even as today’s NATO leaders the case, there’s no security his way to a diluted Article V, that challenge Putin in the arena of for Europe. And if there’s no prayer seems especially apt to- ideas, they should leave open security for Europe, there’s no day. the opportunity to talk with security for America. Moscow, as past NATO lead- Alan W. Dowd is a contrib- ers did during the Cold War. uting editor with Providence But they must see Russia as PRAYERS & PREPAREDNESS and a senior fellow with the it is, not as they hope it to be. The purpose of this back-to-ba- Sagamore Institute Center for The implication of Obama’s sics NATO is not to wage war but America’s Purpose (http://www. “reset,” for instance, was that quite the opposite: to prevent sagamoreinstitute.org/cap). Putin wanted a partner, if only what Churchill called “tempta- Endnotes Washington would change tions to a trial of strength”—and 1 Quoted in Mark B. Schneider, its tone. That hypothesis has thus to prevent war. In a broken “Russian Nuclear Weapons Policy,” Real been obliterated. Putin’s Russia world, military deterrence is the Clear Defense, April 28, 2017. invaded Georgia during the surest way to do that, and NATO 2 Daniel McLaughlin, Vanessa Mock, “with us or against us” Bush “New cold war in Europe as Russia turns is a trusted tool of deterrence. off gas supplies,” Independent, January administration, dismembered 7, 2009. Ukraine during the “lead from Discussing deterrence, de- 3 Russian Federation, “The Military behind” Obama administra- fense budgets, and armored Doctrine of the Russian Federation,” tion, and armed the Taliban divisions in a journal devoted Global Security, February 5, 2010. during the “wouldn’t it be nice to Christianity may seem in- 4 Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, EUCOM if we actually got along with 2017 Posture Statement, March 23, congruent to some. But it’s not 2017, eucom.mil. Russia?” Trump administration. incongruent if we understand Putin—not Washington’s tone or 5 Steven Pifer, “The Budapest deterrence as a way to prevent Memorandum and U.S. Obligations,” NATO’s membership roster—is the kind of war that kills by the Brookings Institution, December 4, the problem. millions, erases nations, and de- 2014. stroys continents, the kind hu- 6 David M Herszenhorn, “Putin Warns Putin is not Hitler, but as long- Again of Force as Ukraine Fighting manity has not endured for sev- Spreads,” New York Times, July 1, 2014. time Pentagon official Dov en decades. We will not know Zakheim observed, “The West is 7 Scaparrotti, Remarks before the the biblical notion of peace—of House Committee on Armed Services, full of Chamberlains.” To extend shalom, peace with harmony March 28, 2017, house.gov. the parallel, the world thirsts and justice—until Christ re- 8 Nikolai Novichkov, “Russia for a Churchill—someone to turns to make all things new. completes reformation of 1st Guards rally the demoralized democ- Tank Army,” IHS Jane’s Defense In the interim, the alternatives Weekly, February 9, 2016. racies and draw a line between to peace through preparedness Putinism and the principles 9 Travis J. Tritten, “Russia inches up to leave much to be desired. third highest defense spender in 2016,” NATO defends. Trump is badly Washington Examiner, April 24, 2017. miscast for that role; however, As people of faith, we know that 10 Robert Kagan, The Return of History at the very least he needs to government exists to protect and the End of Dreams (New York: make unequivocal America’s innocents and preserve order. Knopf, 2008), p.61. commitment to Article V. His NATO contributes to both of 11 Scaparrotti, Remarks before the Warsaw address affirming “that Senate Committee on Armed Services, these legitimate functions of March 23, 2017; Freedom House, we stand firmly behind Article government. “For the first time “Freedom in the World 2017,” 2017; V” and calling on Russia “to in history, there exists in peace Kurt Eichenwald, “Trump, Putin and cease its destabilizing activities the Hidden History of how Russia an integrated international Interfered in the U.S. Presidential in Ukraine and elsewhere, and force whose object is to main- Election,” Newsweek, January 10, 2017. its support for hostile regimes, tain peace through strength,” 12 NATO, Warsaw Summit including Syria and Iran” was a President Harry Truman ob- Communiqué, NATO, July 9, 2016. step in the right direction. But served on NATO’s second birth- 13 Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Russia is more must be done—and more day. “We devoutly pray that our sending weapons to Taliban, top U.S. consistently—to reassure NATO general confirms,” Washington Post, present course of action will April 24, 2017. and remind Moscow that Article succeed and maintain peace 14 NATO, “NATO-Russia relations: the V is alive and well. If there’s without war.” facts,” NATO, May 29, 2017, nato.int. uncertainty about America’s 15 Tim Hains, “Trump: NATO Is commitment to Article V—if it is As Putin probes the West for weak- Obsolete and Expensive, Doesn’t Have conditional—the North Atlantic nesses, as NATO ponders its fu- the Right Countries in It for Terrorism,” Real Clear Politics, March 27, 2016; Treaty is worthless. If that’s ture, as Trump tweets and deletes

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