ESSAY NATO TAKES THE FIFTH ALan W. Dowd Map of NATO membership. Source: Wikimedia Commons. he purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty is “to promote stability and Twell-being in the North Atlantic area” and “to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization” of its signatories. Toward that end, Article II of into something of a global NATO to the dangers posed by the treaty that gave birth to gendarme: Between 1995 and Moscow, but Vladimir Putin’s NATO commits members of 2011, NATO stamped out eth- Russia had been threatening the alliance to “encourage eco- nic-cleansing in Bosnia and NATO interests and NATO nomic collaboration.” Article III Kosovo, deployed peacekeepers members for more than a calls on members to “maintain to those Balkan battlegrounds, decade. and develop their…capacity to marched into Afghanistan to resist armed attack.” Article fight al Qaeda and the Taliban, In 2001, for example, Russia IX creates a political council formed the basis of multina- laid claim to half the Arctic and a military committee to tional armadas to intercept Circle, disregarding the in- shape the common defense. weapons of mass destruction terests of the United States, Article X allows for expansion (WMDs) on the high seas and to Canada, Denmark, Norway, of the alliance, which was once combat piracy, airlifted African and Iceland—NATO members a club of 12 nations clustered Union peacekeepers, trained all—and underlining its claims around the Atlantic Ocean but Iraqi soldiers, and prevented in a brazen military context: now encompasses a wide swath a Bosnia-style bloodletting in In 2008, a Russian general re- vealed plans to train “troops of the northern hemisphere— Libya. Some observers saw in enfolding three continents, 29 that could be engaged in Arctic these post-Cold War missions nations, 50 percent of glob- combat,” adding, “Wars these the outlines of “an expedition- al GDP, and 898 million peo- days are won and lost well be- ary alliance” on call to intervene ple. However, the heart of the fore they are launched.” By anywhere. Yet new threats and treaty and the NATO alliance 2016, Russia had stood up six old enemies emerged in NATO’s is Article V, which declares: new bases above the Arctic Circle, backyard, forcing the alliance to “An armed attack against one opened 16 ports and 13 airfields in or more of them in Europe or return to its traditional role of the region, and deployed sophis- North America shall be consid- deterrence. ticated surface-to-air missile ered an attack against them all.” batteries in the Arctic. As the Cold War and the Soviet RUSSIA’S RECORD In 2003, Russia promulgat- Empire melted away, Article The 2014 invasion of Ukraine ed its “escalate to de-escalate” V diminished in importance, and annexation of Crimea may doctrine, which rationalizes and NATO reinvented itself have been what finally awoke the use of nuclear weapons to 54 (somehow) de-escalate a con- Central Europe, shutting off for East-West trust at the end of ventional conflict. natural-gas flows bound for the Cold War and a cornerstone Ukraine, Bulgaria, Hungary, of post-Cold War stability. In 2007, Putin called NATO and Greece. expansion “a serious provoca- That same year, Putin ordered tion.” Within months, Russia That same year, Russia’s mil- military forces to be scrubbed of launched a series of cyberat- itary practiced an invasion of insignia and move into Ukraine, tacks against NATO member NATO member Poland, complete annexing Crimea in the pro- Estonia, after Estonia relocat- with mock nuclear strikes. cess. Putin’s anonymous, am- ed a Soviet-era war memorial. biguous, asymmetrical war Dubbed “Web War I,” the at- In 2010, Putin unveiled a mil- against Ukraine violates the tacks crippled Estonia’s commu- itary doctrine that identified 1994 Budapest Memorandum, nications infrastructure; target- NATO’s role outside Europe, in which Moscow pledged to ed the mobile-phone network, NATO expansion, the presence “respect the independence and 9-1-1 equivalent, and largest of NATO military infrastructure sovereignty and existing bor- bank; knocked out government “closer to the borders of the ders of Ukraine” and “refrain websites; and raised the possi- Russian Federation,” deploy- from the threat or use of force,” bility of an Article V response. ment of NATO troops “on the in exchange for Ukraine sur- territories of states contiguous rendering its nuclear arsenal. In 2008, Russia invaded and with the Russian Federation,” No matter. It was “just a piece dismembered NATO aspi- and deployment of NATO mis- of paper,” as other dictators rant Georgia. By 2015, Russia sile-defense systems as the have said of other treaties. Some signed a treaty of integration “main external military dan- 10,000 have died in Putin’s war with South Ossetia, effectively gers” facing Russia. on Ukraine. annexing the region away from Georgia. In 2014, Moscow began vio- With Ukraine as a backdrop, lating the INF Treaty, which Putin warned in 2014, “This In 2009, in the dead of win- prohibits deployment of inter- country will continue to actively ter, Russia began using energy mediate-range nuclear missiles. defend the rights of Russians, supplies as a weapon against The treaty was a building block our compatriots abroad, using The NATO compass in front of Headquarters Allied Land Command (LANDCOM) on General Vecihi Akin Garrison in Izmir, Turkey, on March 24, 2017. Tech. Sgt. Joshua T. Jasper. Source: U.S. Air Force. 55 (filling the void created after China cooled relations with Pyongyang). Putin rationalizes his belligerence by arguing that NATO started it— that NATO’s eastward expansion violated agreements at the end of the Cold War. The problem with Putin’s version of history is that it doesn’t correspond with reality. As Mikhail Gorbachev himself con- ceded, “The topic of NATO expan- sion was not discussed at all.” So, the alliance didn’t double-cross its way to the Russian border. In fact, NATO grew through a transparent process that allowed East European states to pursue membership on The greater coat of arms of Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. The their own volition—a process that motto translates: The price of freedom is vigilance. Source: Wikimedia Commons. encouraged political, institutional, and economic reforms that actually the entire range of available were 26-percent larger than diminished tensions with post-So- means.” Given that there are in 2014, and 5.9 percent high- viet Russia. Intent on changing the millions of ethnic Russians in er in 2016. To be sure, Putin’s settled outcomes (and borders) of Ukraine and the Baltics—and military is a shell of the Red the Cold War, Putin won’t be con- that Putin has reserved for him- Army. But it pays to recall that fused by the facts. self the right to determine when, his military-spending binge where, and whether they need to occurred as NATO slashed mili- All of this underscores why be defended—this is a recipe for tary spending. As the Brookings Article V is so important today. something far more complicated Institution’s Robert Kagan than a new cold war. writes early during Russia’s re- armament, “NATO has become FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP In 2015, Putin provided dip- more benign just as Russia “We put ourselves, by our own lomatic and military cover for has become more aggressive.” will and by necessity, into de- Assad’s beastly war in Syria. Also in 2016, Russia hacked fensive alliances with coun- Russian military forces have into the U.S. political system tries all around the globe,” “bolstered the Bashar al-Assad in an attempt to sway the out- President John Kennedy re- regime, targeted moderate op- come of the presidential elec- minded the American people position elements, compounded tion. Russia has conducted in 1963. Regrettably, two suc- human suffering, and compli- similar operations against the cessive administrations have cated U.S. and coalition opera- Netherlands, Estonia, Germany, failed to recognize this truth. tions against the Islamic State Italy, Montenegro, and Britain. Candidate Donald Trump called of Iraq and Syria,” reported U.S. NATO “obsolete…because of Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, Also in 2016, NATO concluded the fact they don’t focus on ter- military commander of NATO. that “Russia’s aggressive ac- rorism.” He even suggested he tions” and “willingness to attain would come to the defense of In 2016, Putin reactivated the political goals by the threat and NATO members under attack— 1st Guards Tank Army, a large use of force…fundamentally an ironclad requirement of the armored force based in west- challenge the alliance” and “un- North Atlantic Treaty—only if ern Russia equipped with 500 dermine peace, security and they had “fulfilled their obliga- main battle tanks—the latest ev- stability across the region.” tions to us.” idence of Russia’s rearmament under Putin. Between 2004 Finally, in 2017, we learned that As the above litany of Russian mis- and 2013, Moscow increased Russia is arming the Taliban chief and aggression underscores, military spending 108 percent. in Afghanistan and supply- NATO is anything but obsolete. Russia’s 2015 military outlays ing North Korea with jet fuel NATO’s Article V commitment 56 is more important today than vast sums of money to NATO… the alliance, a NATO official at any time since 1991. While the United States must be paid emphasized that the extension it’s fair to ask hard questions more for the powerful, and very of U.S. air power “expires on about Europe’s contribution expensive, defense it provides to Monday”—a bruising metaphor to the common defense, those Germany.” for American leadership during who ask such questions must the Obama presidency.