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róbert ondrejcsák PANORAMA SPECIAL EDITION OF PANORAMA OF THE GLOBAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 2019 For more than thirteen years, Panorama of Global Security Environ- Tyler. H. Lippert (eds.) ment has brought quality analysis with inside knowledge written by experienced authors from various areas of employment. It is one of the most prestigious annual or bi-annual publications with a focus on European security, NATO, advanced technologies, new security threats and geopolitics. The goal of Panorama has always been to provide both scholars and decision-makers with up-to-date analysis of the trends and issues of the global security environment. Throughout its history, the book has attracted a wide readership and it has published texts by authors from all the continents. Since 2012, Panorama is indexed in the prestigious Thomson Reuters Web of Science Book Citation Index. Every Panorama issue is publicly available online on the STRATPOL webpage. Slovakia celebrated 15 years in NATO along with six of its allies. It was the sixth enlargement and still remains as NATO’s largest. Apart from that, NATO is celebrating 70 years since the signature of the NATO at 70 Washington Treaty. Therefore, Panorama 2019 is fully devoted to NATO, its current role in the international architecture, but also to finding gaps in the relationship of Slovakia towards the Alliance. NATO is the longest serving defense alliance in modern history. None of the authors argued this will change soon and although they raised important critical points to some of NATO’s policies, the overwhelming consensus is that this tumultuous period would be much harder to cope with without NATO. PANORAMA NATO at 70: Outline of the Alliance Today and Tomorrow NATO AT 70: OUTLINE OF THE ALLIANCE TODAY AND TOMORROW Special Edition of Panorama of Global Security Environment 2019 ABOUT STRATPOL STRATPOL – Strategic Policy Institute – is an independent think-tank based in Slovakia with a focus on international relations and security policy. Its activ- ities cover European security, Transatlantic relations and Eastern Partnership countries. Our research, publications, and events address issues and develop- ments in Central Europe, Ukraine, states of the South Caucasus, as well as NATO, the United States and key strategic regions. Our experts have a proven record in strategic decision-making in their respective governments, military, as well as the world of academia. STRATPOL contributes to academic debate, shapes public opinion through the media and influences policies by formulating recommendations for for- eign and security policy decision-makers. STRATPOL has expanded on the professional basis of the Centre for Euro- pean and North Atlantic Affairs, securing the continuity of the Centre’s proj- ects and partnerships. Among our achievements are the Panorama of global security environment, a reputable peer-reviewed and indexed publication on international relations; yearly South Caucasus Security Forum, a high-level fo- rum for the exchange of views on security developments in the neighborhood, held in Tbilisi, Georgia, and long-term projects on security sector reform and capacity building in Ukraine and Georgia, among others. STRATPOL Štúrova 3, 81102 Bratislava, Slovakia www.stratpol.sk [email protected] All rights reserved. Any reproduction or copying of this work is allowed only with the permission of the publisher. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and should not be constructed as repre- senting the opinions or policy of any organization participating in preparing the publication. ISBN 978-80-972526-8-7 EAN 9788097252687 Róbert Ondrejcsák Tyler H. Lippert (eds.) NATO AT 70 Outline of the Alliance Today and Tomorrow Special Edition of Panorama of Global Security Environment 2019 Realized with support of NATO Public Diplomacy Division STRATPOL Bratislava 2019 Editors: Róbert Ondrejcsák Tyler H. Lippert Authors: Patricia Artimová Robert Czulda Vladimir Đorđević Tyler H. Lippert Pavel Macko Marián Majer Vitalii Martiniyuk Monika Masariková Dalibor Pavolka Matthew Rhodes Ondřej Rojčík Dušan F. Rybar Johann Schmid Ralph Thiele Richard Q. Turcsányi Head Coordinators: Matej Kandrík, Matúš Jevčák Cover: František Hříbal Proofreading: HOPE Language Service Lay-out: Viliam Kaliňák Support: Daniel Kikič, Kristína Urbanová, Dominika Kubišová Printed by: TYPIN Polygrafické služby CONTENTS FOREWORD................................................................................................. 9 Mikuláš Dzurinda FRIENDS OR FOES: NATO-TURKEY STRATEGIC RELATIONS AT A CROSSROADS....................................................... 11 Patrícia Artimová ENHANCED FORWARD PRESENCE: EVOLUTION, MEANING AND THE END GAME..................................................... 26 Robert Czulda KFOR AT 20: EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITY................................... 46 Vladimir Đorđević NATO, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY.................................................................................................. 54 Tyler H. Lippert NATO MEMBERSHIP AND THE SLOVAK ARMED FORCES FROM 2004 TO TODAY.......................................................................... 64 Pavel Macko NATO ENLARGEMENT: HOW FAR CAN IT GO?.......................... 85 Marián Majer WHAT DOES NATO MEAN FOR EASTERN EUROPE TODAY?................................................................................... 99 Vitalii Martyniuk WHY SO NEGATIVE: AN ANALYSIS OF ANTI-NATO NARRATIVES IN SLOVAKIA............................................................. 123 Monika Masariková RE-LEARNING FORGOTTEN: BEING THERE ON TIME.......... 137 Dalibor Pavolka U.S. PERSPECTIVES ON NATO AND TRANSATLANTIC FUTURES........................................................... 149 Matthew Rhodes ACHIEVEMENTS AND FAILURES OF NATO CYBER POLICIES................................................................................. 179 Ondřej Rojčík NATO AT 70: EVOLUTION, ROLE, AND THE IMPORTANCE OF STRATEGIC CONCEPTS.......... 193 Dušan F. Rybár HYBRID WARFARE – ORCHESTRATING THE TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION.............................................. 211 Johann Schmid, Ralph Thiele CHINA’S CHALLENGE FOR NATO: WHAT TO MAKE OF IT?.................................................................... 226 Richard Q. Turcsányi ABOUT THE AUTHORS...................................................................... 243 FOREWORD MIKULÁŠ DZURINDA The year 2019 is a year of significant anniversaries. In particular, we commemorate the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Iron Curtain, which divided Europe geographically, geopolitically, and in terms of values and the overall quality of life of its people. The Velvet Revolu- tion in the former Czechoslovakia also marked the desire of Czechs and Slovaks to re-enter Europe, both symbolically and literally. We were successful in this endeavour after 15 years. In 2004, Slovakia became a member state of both NATO and the EU. This step ensured the strongest guarantee of security and the best opportunity to find a path to prosperity. Today, we are part of the developed Western world. The world is con- stantly changing, and we devote a great deal of attention to assess how it is evolving, as well as our place in it. We appreciate the flourishing prosperity and peace, and take full advantage of technological prog- ress. But at times we are also concerned, worried, or anxious. This stems mainly from the crises brought by life. During our coexistence in a reunited Europe, we have been troubled by the economic crisis, and terrorist attacks outside and inside our community, as well as faced the phenomenon of massive immigration, and climate change. We perceive that the unity of the Western world has suffered cracks. This is true both within the European Union and the Transatlantic Al- liance. These cracks are symbolic of developments in the United King- dom since 2016, and the current tone of the EU-US dialogue—as if the Western Alliance was to undergo a severe test. Such tests are a part of life. We experience them in personal life, in families, and in various communities. As a rule, we come through with flying colours if we pursue essential, shared, universal values. The val- ues ​​of liberal democracy. It was these values ​​that created the Transat- lantic Community, which commemorates 70 years of its existence in 2019. 9 I believe it was a good, successful era. Both for the world, and for our homeland. When we assess how the world should evolve, we will have diverse opinions. Politicians will come up with various formulas. It is both natural and necessary in the free world. But the key to maintain- ing peace in the world, to coping with challenges, and to promoting prosperity is to have the ability, capacity, will and strength to constant- ly recognize what is true and false. And, moreover, to carefully exam- ine what has good prospects and what will lead us up a blind alley. Mikuláš Dzurinda President of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and Former Prime Minister of Slovakia 10 FRIENDS OR FOES: NATO-TURKEY STRATEGIC RELATIONS AT A CROSSROADS PATRÍCIA ARTIMOVÁ Introduction In the 21st century, NATO faces a credibility issue throughout most of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. NATO relations with countries in this ‘Southern Flank’ are troubled; leaders in this region do not view NATO as a democratic and liberal securi- ty alliance, but rather as a regime change tool and destabilizer unable or unwilling to tackle issues of concern to individual
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