Disjointed War Military Operations in Kosovo, 1999 Bruce R. Nardulli, Walter L. Perry, Bruce Pirnie John Gordon IV, John G. McGinn Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited R Arroyo Center The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under contract number DASW01-01-C-0003. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Disjointed war : military operations in Kosovo, 1999 / Bruce R. Nardulli ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MR-1406.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3096-5 1. Kosovo (Serbia)—History—Civil War, 1998—Campaigns. 2. North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Armed Forces—Yugoslavia. I. Nardulli, Bruce R. DR2087.5 .D57 2002 949.703—dc21 2002024817 Cover photos courtesy of U.S. Air Force Link (B2) at www.af.mil, and NATO Media Library (Round table Meeting) at www.nato.int. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 102, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE Following the 1999 Kosovo conflict, the Army asked RAND Arroyo Center to prepare an authoritative and detailed account of military operations with a focus on ground operations, especially Task Force Hawk. In response, the Arroyo Center delivered a classified report for use by the Army Staff and others with an interest in the Kosovo conflict. This document is an unclassified version of that report. The purpose is to offer the Army a more accessible document, while also reaching a wider audience. It should interest those concerned with employment of Army and joint forces. It should also interest those concerned with broader national security issues, especially the planning and conduct of contingency operations. This research was sponsored jointly by the Director of Strategy, Plans, and Policy, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans (G-3); the Director of the Center for Land Warfare (with sponsorship now assumed by the Director, Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office); Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Programs; and the Technical Advisor to the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans. It was conducted in the Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. iii iv Disjointed War: Military Operations in Kosovo, 1999 For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6500; FAX 310- 451-6952; e-mail [email protected]), or visit the Arroyo Center’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/organization/ard/. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... ix Tables.......................................... xi Summary ....................................... xiii Acknowledgments................................. xix Abbreviations .................................... xxi Chapter One INTRODUCTION .............................. 1 A Battle of Constraints and NATO’s Strategic Choices .... 2 Impact on Planning ............................ 3 Impact on Air Operations ........................ 4 Impact on Task Force Hawk ...................... 5 The Deficiencies of Operation Allied Force ............ 6 About the Report ............................... 8 Chapter Two AT THE BRINK: APRIL 1998 TO MARCH 1999 ......... 11 Mounting Tensions and Concerns Over Kosovo ........ 13 Initial NATO Planning ......................... 13 October Crisis ................................. 15 Rambouillet and Its Aftermath ..................... 17 Chapter Three AIR OPERATION ............................... 21 NATO and U.S. Goals ........................... 21 v vi Disjointed War: Military Operations in Kosovo, 1999 Public Renunciation of Ground Force Options ......... 22 Initial Operations .............................. 24 Command and Control ........................ 25 Restrictions on Air Operations ................... 27 Yugoslav Forces................................ 27 Air Defense ................................. 28 Ground Forces in Kosovo ....................... 30 Slowly Expanding Air Operations ................... 31 Introduction of Naval Air ....................... 31 Expansion of Fixed Targets ...................... 32 Aircraft Reinforcement ........................ 32 Controversy Over the Weight of Effort ............. 33 NATO’s Determination to Prevail ................... 36 Turning Point: The NATO Summit Conference ....... 36 Escalating Attacks on Yugoslav Infrastructure ........ 37 Halting Steps Toward a Possible Land Invasion ....... 38 Tightening the Noose: The Ahtisaari-Chernomyrdin Mission .................................. 43 Successes and Limitations of the Overall Air Operation ... 44 Overall Success .............................. 45 Fixed Targets ................................ 45 Limited Collateral Damage ...................... 46 Operational Problems ......................... 47 Low Effectiveness of Air Strikes Against Fielded Forces ... 48 Marginal Effect in Halting Violence Against Kosovar Albanians ................................ 49 Joint Chiefs of Staff Briefing, June 10, 1999 .......... 50 NATO SHAPE Briefing, September 16, 1999 .......... 52 The Allied Force Munitions Effectiveness Assessment Team.................................... 53 Annual Data Exchange, Sub-Regional Arms Control ... 54 Summary of Strike Assessments .................. 54 Chapter Four TASK FORCE HAWK ............................ 57 Origin and Controversy .......................... 57 The Decision to Deploy Task Force Hawk ........... 59 The Change to Albania ......................... 61 Deployment of Task Force Hawk ................. 66 Command and Control .......................... 76 Contents vii Command and Control at Rinas .................. 78 Task Force Hawk Operations ...................... 80 Deep Operations Planning ...................... 80 Mission Planning ............................. 82 Training and Rehearsals ........................ 85 Forward Operating Base ....................... 87 Integration with Air Operations and Targeting ....... 88 Task Force Hunter.............................. 92 Why Wasn’t Task Force Hawk Employed in Kosovo? ..... 94 Contributions of Task Force Hawk .................. 95 Operational and Tactical Contributions ............ 96 Chapter Five ENFORCING THE PEACE ........................ 99 Preparation for Operation Joint Guardian ............ 99 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 ..... 100 Initial Operations in Kosovo ...................... 101 Kosovo Force Structure and Disposition ............ 101 Entry of Task Force Falcon ...................... 103 Initial Tasks ................................. 104 Challenges Facing KFOR ......................... 105 The Law and Order Problem .................... 106 U.S. Emphasis on Force Protection in Kosovo ........ 108 Kosovo in Contrast to Bosnia ...................... 109 Chapter Six CONCLUSION ................................ 111 The Leverage Derived from an Air-Land Campaign Approach................................. 111 Joint “Air-Only” Operations ....................... 112 Designation of a Land Component Commander ...... 113 Sensor-to-Shooter Response Time ................ 115 Joint Doctrine for Attack Helicopter Operations ...... 115 Planning for Major Political Constraints on Future Military Operations ......................... 116 Characteristic Restraints ....................... 116 Tendency to Rely on Air Power ................... 117 Improving Military Planning ...................... 118 The Army’s Title 10 Planning Responsibilities ........ 118 Need for Expanded Ground-Force Options ........... 119 Disparities in Coalition Capabilities ................. 120 viii Disjointed War: Military Operations in Kosovo, 1999 Need for Increased Army Capability to Conduct Civil Police Tasks ............................... 120 Final Thoughts ................................ 121 Appendix: LIST OF INDIVIDUALS CONSULTED .......... 123 Bibliography ..................................... 127 FIGURES 2.1. Map of the Balkan Region ..................... 12 3.1. Command Headquarters Locations .............. 26 3.2. Basic Process for Attacking Fielded Forces ......... 35 3.3. Refugee Flow, March 23 to June 8, 1999 ........... 50 4.1. Initial Task Force Hawk Structure (Macedonia) ..... 62 4.2. Rinas Airport at Tiranë ....................... 65 4.3. Battling MOG and Mud: The Two C-17 Maximum at Rinas .................................... 69 4.4. Ground Conditions at Rinas, Early May ........... 70 4.5. Task Force Hawk Helicopter Self-Deployment ...... 72 4.6. Army Apaches and Blackhawks Arriving at Rinas .... 73 4.7. Task Force Hawk Structure .................... 74 4.8.