Contents 5 - 8 September, 2018 Lima Convention Center, Lima, Peru  Disaster Risk Reduction for Natural Hazard MT5

12th International Symposium on Disaster Risk Management: Reconstruction Toward Resilient Cities (ISDRM 2018) Contents 5 - 8 September, 2018 Lima Convention Center, Lima, Peru  Disaster risk reduction for natural hazard MT5. Capacity building for resilience in Reconstruction  Earthquake history of Japan and lessons learned Reconstruction Towards Resilient Society:  Research programs for earthquake risk reduction in Japan Japanese Experiences  Peru-Japan SATREPS project  Capacity building towards Build Back Better September 6, 2018

Fumio YAMAZAKI Professor, Ph.D., Graduate School of Engineering, Chiba University, Japan. Doctor Honoris Causa, National University of Engineering, Peru. 1 2

Estimated economic loss due to disasters in the world in 1975-2014. Mechanism behind the emergence of natural disasters (The values were converted to those in 2014.)

Hazard Exposure Earthquakes, People, Property Floods, storms 2011 Thailand Disaster 2005 Hurricane Flood 1995 Kobe EQ Katrina Risk 2011 Tohoku EQ Vulnerability Susceptibility to natural hazards Disaster Risk

Estimated Damage (US$ billion) Damage Estimated = Function (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability)

Year 2008Wenchuan 3 Hand Book of Total Disaster Risk Management-Good Practices, ADRC, Japan, 2005 4 http://www.emdat.be/disaster_trends/index.html EQ Mechanism toward natural disaster reduction Disaster Cycle and Disaster Management Early Warning Basically unchanged Hazard Exposure but “climate change” Relocation of people & property Preparedness Response Disaster makes hazard bigger. from hazards Business Continuity Plan Search & Rescue But the growth of population Foods & Water Storage Medical care Emergency Drill Disaster Information System Damage Assessment with GIS and Remote Sensing Remote Sensing Disaster Risk

Vulnerability Recovery and Mitigation Reduce physical and social vulnerability. Reconstruction This is the only feasible approach. Hazard Map Retrofit of Structures Temporary Housing Seismic Proof Design Mental care Land-use Planning Hand Book of Total Disaster Risk Management-Good Practices, ADRC, Japan, 2005 5 6

Recovery, Reconstruction, and BBB Aerial video by NHK after the 1995 Kobe Earthquake Fukkyu 復旧 = Recovery : Get back to the former condition Saiken 再建 = Reconstruction : Build back Fukko 復興 = Build Back Better * : The use of the recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction phases after a disaster to increase the resilience of nations and communities through integrating disaster risk reduction measures into the restoration of physical infrastructure and societal systems, and into the revitalization of livelihoods, economies and the environment.

7 * United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Feb. 2017 8 Contents

 Disaster risk reduction for natural hazard  Earthquake history of Japan and lessons learned  Research programs for earthquake risk reduction in Japan  Peru-Japan SATREPS project  Capacity building towards Build Back Better

The source region of the destructive earthquakes in Japan The 1891 Mino-Owari Earthquake (M=8.0) 1891年濃尾地震 North-American (1885-2016, depth < 100 km) plate Deaths 7,273 1993 off-SW 1891 Hokkaido EQ

1891 Mino- Owari EQ 2011.3.11 Dv= 6m Neodani Fault Museum Tohoku EQ 1995 Kobe EQ 2006 Dh= 4m for citizen’s awareness raising

Kumamoto city Mt.Aso 1923 Kanto EQ

2016 Kumamoto EQ Central Kyushu and active faults Reprint version published 1992 http://www.hp1039.jishin.go.jp/eqchr/eqchrfrm.htm 11 http://research.kahaku.go.jp/rikou/namazu/04nobi/noubi.html 12 The 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake (M=7.9) 1923年関東大地震 The 1948 Fukui Earthquake (Mw=7.0) 1948年福井地震 Death 5,268 by GHQ Ginza East Tokyo Building Standard Law was issued and JMA intensity 7* was introduced after the Fukui EQ. (* equal to Modified Mercalli intensity X-XII)

Nebukawa Deaths over 105,000, mostly due to fire Researches on the Kanto EQ are still continuing Sakawagawa Br. using various old documents.

http://research.kahaku.go.jp/rikou/namazu/index.html 13 http://toshichan.be.fukui-nct.ac.jp/yoshida/works/earthquake/dplf1/NewFiles/outline1!.html 14

The 1964 Niigata Earthquake (Mw=7.6) 1964年新潟地震 The 1978 Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake (Mw=7.5) 1978年宮城県沖地震 Liquefaction countermeasures started to Building Standard Law was upgraded be introduced after the Niigata EQ. after the Miyagiken-Oki EQ.

Collapse of buildings Column failure Seismic record at the 9F Soil Liquefaction induced damage of Tohoku Univ. After A. Shibata

Tsunami attacked Niigata City Collapse of concrete-brick wall Sloshing caused oil tank fire 15 Lifeline Interruption 16 The 1995 Kobe Earthquake (Mw=6.9) The 1995 Kobe Earthquake (Mw=6.9) 1995年兵庫県南部地震 January 17, 1995 Elevated Highway Fire JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) Kobe Kobe NHK TV Station JMA Kobe-NS ) 2 2 500 Acceleration (cm/s ) 0 -500 2 Acc (cm/s Acc Max=818.05 cm/s 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 100 Max=91.51 cm/s Velocity (cm/s) 0

-100Vel (cm/s) 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Wooden Houses RC Buildings 20 Max=18.79 cm

Dis (cm) Dis Displacement (cm) -20 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Time (s) The number of seismometers was not enough to estimate hard-hit areas. Telecommunication systems were disrupted in the disaster. 17 18

Promotion of seismic strengthening of structures after the Kobe EQ Memorial sites and museums of the 1995 Kobe EQ Nojima Fault Preservation Disaster Reduction and Human Bracing of Metro Steel jacketing of RC piers Kobe Port Memorial site Museum in Awaji Island Renovation Institution, Kobe station tunnel of highway bridges 2010

Strengthening of school buildings 1995 Bracing

Rubber isolator Base isolation after the 1994 Northridge EQ at LA City Hall, USA 19 20 Revision of building’s seismic code in Japan Contents

Building Modification Old code New seismic code Modification Standard Law of the old code of the new code  Disaster risk reduction for natural hazard 1970 1971 1981 1980 2010  Earthquake history of Japan and lessons learned 1950 1960 1990 2000 Fukui EQ Tokachi-Oki Miyagiken-Oki Kobe EQ (1995)  Research programs for earthquake risk reduction in Japan (1948) EQ (1968) EQ (1978) Niigata-Chuetsu -Oki EQ (2007)  Peru-Japan SATREPS project Tohoku EQ 100% (2011) 90% Others  Capacity building towards Build Back Better 80% Moderate Severe Kumamoto EQ 70% 60% (2016) 50% 40% Damage ratio of RC buildings in Nada Damage Ratio Damage 30% 20% Ward due to the 1995 Kobe EQ 10% classified by construction period 0% -1951 1952-61 1962-71 1972-81 1982-94(Murao & Yamazaki, 2000) 21 22

Seismic monitoring in Japan after the 1995 Kobe EQ Distribution of PGA & PGV and Animation of PGA propagation At the time of the Kobe EQ, JMA seismic stations were only about 100. 2016/04/16 01:25 Mw7.0 Kumamoto EQ For determine magnitudes For intensity broadcast & hypocenters & damage estimation

Total 4,200 as of 2009

●JMA, ■Universities, ●JMA, ■Local Gov., ▲NIED Hi-Net: 800, ◆Others ▲NIED K-NET: 1,000 23 http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/intens_st/index.html http://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/kyoshin/topics/html20160416012405/main_20160416012405.html 24 Seismic Early Warning System (SEWS) to Stop Trains Seismic monitoring for city-gas network control SUPREME: Super-dense Realtime Monitoring of Earthquakes JR East Tokyo Gas Co. with 10 million customers 4,000 seismometers in Tokyo Metropolitan area

Near Real-time SHAKE Map by SUPREME 2011Tohoku EQ

25 26

Deployment of GNSS/ GPS network (GEONET) 3-D Full-Scale Earthquake Testing Facility: Real-time fault estimation by RAPiD E-Defense with 1,300 stations covering entire Japan (Ohta et al. (2012), after S. Koshimura) In operation since 2005 in Miki city, Hyogo Prefecture

STA=0: Estimation complete

27 28 http://www.bosai.go.jp/hyogo/ehyogo/index.html E-Defense Full-Scale Test Videos Long-period seismic ground motion 長周期地震動 Full-Scale 6-story RC Building Traditional Wooden Houses 2011 Tohoku EQ in Shinjyuku, Tokyo 400 km away from the epicenter

September 26, 2003 Tokachi-Oki EQ, M 8.0

Due to oil sloshing caused by Following Old Japanese Seismic Code Left: Retrofitted Right: Non retrofitted the long-period motion, fires JMA Kobe 100% 1995 JR Takatori 100% broke out in a tank yard. 新宿センタービル(54F)から見た Videos and tests data are available internationally. 新宿野村ビル(50F,左)と損保ジャパン本社ビル(43F,右） 29 30 http://www.bosai.go.jp/hyogo/ehyogo/index.html

Seismic record of 55-storied building in Osaka in the 2011 Tohoku EQ 55-storied building in Osaka 740 km away from the epicenter Contents Acceleration 52F Max=126.1cm/s²  Disaster risk reduction for natural hazard 38F Max=85.8cm/s²  Earthquake history of Japan and lessons learned 18F Max=41.3cm/s² 1F Max=34.3cm/s²  Research programs for earthquake risk reduction in Japan  Peru-Japan SATREPS project 1995年竣工。地下3階・地上55階高さ256mの超高層ビル Displacement  Capacity building towards Build Back Better

Oil dampers were introduced after the 2011 EQ.

31 32 Science and Technology Research Partnership Needs in Peru CISMID/UNI for Sustainable Development : SATREPS •Sustainable Development IGP, DHN, INDECI, •Reduction of Losses from EQ •Survey of past events 1) Environment and Energy SENCICO, Ricardo •Seismic & MT observation •Regional Characteristics 2) Bioresources Palma U, CONIDA, PCM •Structural tests and surveys JST: Japan Science and Technology Agency 3) Natural Disaster Prevention •Implementation Technology MINSA •Assessment, Planning JICA: Japan International Cooperation Agency 4) Infectious Diseases Control Peruvian Research Team SATREPS project (2010-2015) Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami MEXT, JST Collaboration MOFA, JICA Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru

G5: Chiba Univ. Japanese Project Management, Disaster Mitigation Plan Research Team Support Technical Cooperation

International G1: Chiba Univ. G2:Tohoku Univ. G3: BRI G4: Tokyo Tech Seismic M, Geotech Joint Research Tsunami Building Damage Assessment Research Institutions Research Institutions Research in Developing Development and Implementation of EQ & T Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru in Japan Partnership Countries Chiba Univ. CISMID-UNI Knowledge Transfer to Other Pacific-Rim Countries 33 34

Testing and monitoring of buildings by SATREPS Lima-Callo tsunami propagation and evacuation simulation Dynamic behavior testing

Self supporting loading system

Building seismic monitoring

Sensor

Joint survey of Chile EQ

Source Model (Pulido et al., 2011) Internet sensor monitored by Peru and Japan Laser sensorModeling and simulation Bruno Adriano@CISMID, Cesar Jimenez@DHN 35 36 Tsunami evacuation drill in La Punta, Callo, Peru Awareness Raising and Dissemination Activities 2013.8.14 NO. CAPACITY SHELTERED 1 540 173 Support to establish CISMID Awareness Center in Lima (CESATT) 2 160 84 3701 Donation of Equipment by STREPS project 4 200 3 5 1450 305 1. Elementary Public Awareness Models (2 sets) 6258 Plate techtonics model 75018 Tsunami generation model 8 120 0 Small shaking table 9 100 17 10 60 0 11 220 79 2. Portable 1D Shaking Table (2 sets) 12 110 17 3. Hand-move Shaking Test Kit (1 set) 13 30 4 14 165 2 15 75 8 Continuous support by JICA and Peruvian Gov. 16 105 1 17 450 16 18 200 20 19 3000 ~1000 20 800 270 Total 7,930 2,026

40% of total population RTV CIP Lima – Peru Society of Engineers 37 38

Human Resources Development in SATREPS project Contents MEXT scholarship students to Japan (Ph.D: 7, Master: 1), Trainee: 5  Disaster risk reduction for natural hazard  Earthquake history of Japan and lessons learned  Research programs for earthquake risk reduction in Japan Training Courses in Peru Field activities in Peru  Peru-Japan SATREPS project  Capacity building towards Build Back Better

tsunami seismic motion

structures 39 40 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‐2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Structure Expected Outcome 2015-2030 The substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries Global Targets

Goal The number of deaths Priorities for Action ① ② The number of affected people Prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk through the implementation of integrated and inclusive economic, structural, legal, social, health, ③ Economic loss cultural, educational, environmental, technological, political and institutional measures that prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability ④ Damage to medical and educational facilities ⑤ National and local strategies to disaster, increase preparedness for response and recovery, and thus strengthen resilience ⑥ Support to developing countries 1. Understanding disaster risk (DR) Priorities for Action ⑦ Access to early warning information Focused action within and across sectors by States at local, national, regional and global levels Priority Action 1 Priority Action 2 Priority Action 4 2. Strengthening DR governance to manage disaster risk Priority Action 3 Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to “Build Back Understanding disaster risk Strengthening disaster risk reduction Investing in disaster risk Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and for resilience reduction for resilience reconstruction 3. Investing in DRR for resilience Roles of Stakeholders Civil society, volunteers, organized voluntary work organizations and Academia, scientific and Business, professional associations and Media to take a role in contributing community‐based organizations to participate (In particular, women, children research entities and private sector financial institutions to to the public awareness raising and youth, persons with disabilities, and older persons) networks to collaborate collaborate 4. a) Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and International Cooperation and Global Partnership b) to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and General considerations Means of implementation Support from international organization Follow‐up actions reconstruction (RRR). Highlights • Seven concrete global targets were specified • The targets include important policy focuses, such as mainstreaming DRR, prior investment, “Build Back Better”, multi‐stakeholders’ involvement, people‐centered approach, and women’s leadership

42 41

Tasks recommended for Priority 4b (BBB) and Capacity Building (CB) Good Practice of Build Back Better from the 1995 Kobe earthquake (1): Rokkomichi-South district, Kobe City 1. Develop an all-stakeholder, national-level disaster recovery framework UNISDR 2017  CB of policy makers and national/local governments with international cooperation (UN, JICA, NGOs) 2. Enable pre-disaster recovery planning (PDRP) among all stakeholders  CB and to study good practices by local government and community with the support of urban planners, NPOs and private sectors 3. Formalize processes and systems to enable effective assessment of post-disaster damages and needs  CB of local governments and practitioners with the support of research institutes and NGOs. 4. Institute or strengthen policies, laws, and programs that promote, guide, and support BBB in RRR in both the public and private sectors, and by individuals and households  CB of public/private sectors and community leaders by national gov. 43 44 https://www.unisdr.org/files/53213_bbb.pdf http://www.bousai.go.jp/kyoiku/fukko/shisai/pdf/rokkomichi.pdf Process of Better Reconstruction Rokkomichi-South district, Kobe City Pre-Disaster Recovery Plan of Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG) through communication with the residents Time Line Recovery Manual Recovery Ground Design Recovery Simulation Drill Define process, level, and main body Define basic concept and policy Inspection, consultation, mapping, and implementation to development plan

1995.1

Communication with residents First plan Revised plan http://www.urca.or.jp/chousa/mk_arc/07jireiken/02-2uerubu.pdf 45 http://www.bousai.metro.tokyo.jp/foreign/english/index.html 46

What shall we do in developing countries? Improvement of construction practice and enforcement of laws & regulations Conclusions Interview on public awareness Damage situations after the 2007 Pisco EQ.  Trend of natural disasters and process of risk reduction were Non-engineered buildings suffered severely. discussed towards resilient society.  Earthquake history in Japan and lessons learned were presented.  Research programs in Japan after the 1995 Kobe earthquake Construction must follow the laws. were highlighted.

G0 (confined masonry) G3 (brick masonry)  Summary of SATREPS Peru project was presented.  Concept of Build Back Better was introduced and examples of good practice were presented.

EMS 1998 Damage class G4 (adobe) G5 (adobe) 47 48