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I;E;-:Lo Park, California UNITED STATESpEDEPARTMENT;: " OF THE INTERIOR ; :; GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROCEEDINGS OF CONFERENCE LXII EIGHTH JOIl'T MEETING of the U.S.-JAPAN CONFERENCE T ^ T7.TURAL RESOURCES (UJNR) P.V:i. : ; /::IKQUAKE PREDICTIONS TEChliCLOGY 16-21 1932 EE-FELE NO 9.4-542 Ills report iis n._ iELE^inary and has not been reviewed for conformity witr \J.S. Geological Survey editorial standards or with the North American stratgraphic Code. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the autho: ar^. should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Tilted States Go remnant. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. I;E;-:LO PARK, CALIFORNIA 1993 Proceedings of the Eighth Joint Meeting of the U.S.-Japan Conference on Natural Resources (UJNR) Panel on Earthquake Prediction Technology November 16-21, 1992 Panel Chairmen: Robert L. Wesson U.S. Geological Survey Reston, Virginia 22092 U.S.A. Yamato Miyazaki Geographical Survey Institute Ibaraki-Ken 305 Japan Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................ Hi Members of the Panel on Earthquake Prediction Technology ................................. iv Listing of Participants in the Eighth UJNR Meeting ............................................... vi Resolutions ................................................................................................................. ix Opening Remarks ....................................................................................................... x Paper Presented at the Eighth UJNR Meeting .......................................................... xi u INTRODUCTION The 8th Joint Meeting of the U.S.-Japan Natural Resources Panel on Earthquake Prediction Technology was held in Seattle, Washington and near Landers, California on November 16-21, 1992. The UJNR program fosters the exchange of scientists, information, equipment and knowledge between government agencies in Japan and the United States concerned with problems involving natural resources. Technical sessions were held in Seattle, Washington, on November 17-18, 1992, with the scientific theme of the meeting "Great subduction zone earthquakes". The technical chairman for the meeting was Dr. Craig Weaver (U.S.G.S., Seattle, WA). A field trip was taken to visit newly recognized paleoseismic sites in Puget Sound, near Seattle, on November 19, 1992, under the leadership of Dr. Robert Bucknam (U.S.G.S., Golden, CO), and Dr. Brian Atwater (U.S.G.S., Seattle, WA). The entire party travelled by ferry across Puget Sound to visit the uplifted beaches on Restoration Point. Upon returning to Seattle, some members of the party visited the site of the Seattle Sewage Treatment Plant, where excavations in progress revealed further paleoseismic evidence. All participants who visited the construction site to view evidence of tsunami (or seiche?) depoists will long remember the specialized footwear provided by Dr. Bucknam and Dr. Atwater. The Japanese delegation continued from Seattle to Ontario, California, on November 20, 1992, where they were met by Mr. Michael Rymer (U.S.G.S., Menlo Park, CA) and Dr. Susan Hough (U.S.G.S., Pasadena, CA), who took them to visit the site of the 1992 M 7.4 Landers, California earthquake. The Landers field trip concluded on November 21, 1992. in U.S.-Side Members of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Prediction Technology Dr. Robert L. Wesson, Chairman Mr. William Strange Chief Chief, Geodynamics Branch Office of Earthquakes Volcanoes Geodetic Research and Development and Engineering Laboratory U.S. Geological Survey National Geodetic Survey/NOS 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive 6001 Executive Boulevard Reston, Virginia 22092 Rockville, Maryland 20852 Dr. James H. Dieterich Dr. Wayne Thatcher Branch of Tectonophysics Branch of Tectonophysics U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey 345 Middlefield Road 345 Middlefield Road Menlo Park, California 94025 Menlo Park, California 94025 Dr. William L. Ellsworth Dr. Shelby G. Tilford Branch of Seismology Director U.S. Geological Survey Earth Science and 345 Middlefield Road Applications Division Menlo Park, California 94025 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dr. David P. Hill Washington, D.C. 20550 Branch of Seismology U.S. Geological Survey Dr. James Whitcomb 345 Middlefield Road National Science Foundation Menlo Park, California 94025 1800 G Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20550 Mr. Gary Johnson Assistant Associate Director, Dr. Richard Wright Office of Earthquakes and Director Natural Hazards Center for Building Technology Federal Emergency Management Agency National Institute of Standards Washington, D.C. 20472 and Technology Building Research Building, 226 Dr. Andy Murphy Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899 Earth Science Branch, MS 007NL U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 IV Japan-Side Members of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Prediction Technology Mr. Yamato Miyazaki, Chairman Dr. Tadanao Oh'ishi Director General Director Geographical Survey Institute Quantum Metrology Department Kitazato-1, Tsukuba-Shi National Research Laboratory Ibaraki-Ken 305 of Metrology 1-1-4, Umezono, Tsukuba-Shi Dr. Yoshitake Egawa, Secretary Ibaraki-Ken 305 Director Crustal Dynamics Department Dr. Yoshihiro Kinugasa Geographical Survey Institute Chief Kitazato-1, Tsukuba-Shi Seismo-Tectonics Research Section Ibaraki-Ken 305 Environmental Geology Department Geological Survey of Japan Dr. Kazuo Hamada 1-1-3, Higashi, Tsukuba-Shi Visiting Research Officer Ibaraki-Ken 305 National Research Center for Disaster Prevention Mr. Yutaka lida 3-1, Tennodai, Tsukuba-Shi Director Ibaraki-Ken 305 Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department Dr. Katsuhiko Ishibashi Public Works Research Institute Chief Asahi-1, Tsukuba-Shi Seismology Division Ibaraki-Ken 305 International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Dr. Kenshiro Tsumura Building Research Institute Head Tatchara-1, Tsukuba-Shi Seismological and Volcanological Ibaraki-Ken 305 Management Division Seismological and Volcanological Dr. Sigeru Kato Department Senior Officer Japan Meteorological Agency Planning Division 1-3-4, Ote-Machi, Chiyoda-Ku Hydrographic Department Tokyo 100 Maritime Safety Agency 5-3-1, Tsukiji, Chuo-Ku Tokyo 104 Dr. Yasuo Kadokawa Associate Director General Communications Research Laboratory 4-2-1, Nukuikita-Machi, Koganei-Shi Tokyo 184 Participants in the Eighth Joint Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Prediction Technology U.S. Members: Gary Carver Robert L. Wesson, Chairman Department of Geology U.S. Geological Survey, MS-905 Humboldt State University 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Arcata, California 95521 Reston, Virginia 22092 Ken Creager James H. Dieterich Geophysics Program AK-50 U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 University of Washington 345 Middlefield Road Seattle, Washington, 98195 Menlo Park, California 94025 Robert Crosson William L. Ellsworth Geophysics Program AK-50 U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 University of Washington 345 Middlefield Road Seattle, Washington, 98195 Menlo Park, California 94025 Jim Dieterich David P. Hill U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 345 Middlefield Road 345 Middlefield Road Menlo Park, California 94025 Menlo Park, California 94025 Susan Hough U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Observers: 525 Wilson St. Pasadena, California 91106 Brian Atwater Lorraine Hwang U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey Geophysics Program AK-50 525 Wilson St. University of Washington Pasadena, California 91106 Seattle, Washington, 98195 Allan G. Lindh John Booker U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 Geophysics Program AK-50 345 Middlefield Road University of Washington Menlo Park, California 94025 Seattle, Washington, 98195 Steve Malone Bob Bucknam Geophysics Program AK-50 U.S. Geological Survey, MS-966 University of Washington Box 25046 Seattle, Washington, 98195 Denver Federal Center Denver, Colorado 80225 VI Karen Meagher Chris Stephens U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey MS-977 345 Middlefield Road Menlo Geophysics Program AK-50 Park, California 94025 University of Washington Seattle, Washington, 98195 Craig Weaver U.S. Geological Survey Geophysics Program AK-50 University Walter Mooney of Washington Seattle, Washington, U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 98195 345 Middlefield Road Menlo Park, California 94025 Alan Nelson U.S. Geological Survey, MS-966 Box 25046 Denver Federal Center Denver, Colorado 80225 Stuart Nishenko U.S. Geological Survey, MS-967 Box 25046 Denver Federal Center Denver, Colorado 80225 Anthony Qamar Geophysics Program AK-50 University of Washington Seattle, Washington, 98195 Michael Rymer U.S. Geological Survey, MS-977 345 Middlefield Road Menlo Park, California 94025 Stewart Smith Geophysics Program AK-50 University of Washington Seattle, Washington, 98195 Paul Somerville Woodward-Clyde Consultants 566 El Dorado Street Pasadena, California 91101 vn Japanese Members: Japanese Observers: Yamato Miyazaki Masajiro Imoto Director General National Research Center for Geographical Survey Institute Disaster Prevention Kitazato-1, Tsukuba-Shi 3-1, Tennodai, Tsukuba-Shi Ibaraki-Ken 305 Ibaraki-Ken 305 Yoshitake Egawa Hiroki Kuroishi Director Geographical Survey Institute Crustal Dynamics Department Geographical Survey Institute Geographical Survey Institute Kitazato-1, Tsukuba-Shi Kitazato-1, Tsukuba-Shi Ibaraki-Ken 305 Ibaraki-Ken 305 Shouichi
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