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Capstone Headwaters C4ISR Industry MA Coverage Report November

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Capstone Headwaters C4ISR Industry MA Coverage Report November MILITARY READINESS AGAINST NEAR-PEERS DRIVES HEIGHTENED DEMAND FOR C4ISR INDUSTRY C4ISR INDUSTRY UPDATE | NOVEMBER 2020 CONTACTS KEY HIGHLIGHTS Tess Oxenstierna • Resilient industry during COVID-19, as C4ISR serves Managing Director as primary “enabling technologies” across military Aerospace l Defense l Govt l Security air/land/sea/space platforms and the joint networks that allow for interoperability Hilary Morrison • The National Defense Strategy is fueling Vice President modernization requirements to keep pace with Aerospace l Defense l Govt l Security warfighting missions against near-peers • Merger and acquisition activity totals 60 deals through October, keeping pace with 2019 Military Readiness Against Near-Peers Drives Heightened Demand for C4ISR Industry INDUSTRY OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) continues to serve as primary “enabling technologies” across Industry Outlook military air/land/sea/space platforms and the joint networks that allow for Key Trends & Drivers interoperability across these mission critical systems. Many C4ISR companies were deemed essential at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and The Defense Defense Budget Request Overview Production Act, invoked in March 2020, further buoyed the sector by authorizing Highlight: U.S. Space Force federal government loans and prioritizing government orders to ensure continuity M&A Activity of supply. These immediate buffers helped mitigate business loses across the Defense industry. Select Transactions Buyer Universe While Capstone’s C4ISR index has yet to fully recover from universal COVID-19 C4ISR Five-Year Index impacts including delays in the supply chain, several public players have reported resilient Q3 year-over-year (YOY) revenue gains including CACI International Public Company Data (NYSE:CACI), up 7%,1 Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), up 9%,2 and Northrop Key Takeaways Grumman, up 6%.3 Coming off the heels of Leidos (NYSE:LDOS) $1.65 billion Report Contributors acquisition of Dynetics in January, the company reported a 14.4% YOY Q3 revenue increase, including 22.4% growth in its Defense Solutions segment.4 The ability to Firm Track Record grow despite the unprecedented market continues to further demonstrate the industry’s strength. Deal volume has also been resilient, keeping pace with 2019 despite a slowdown in Q2 and Q3 activity. October has been the most active month since the CONTACTS pandemic, with eight deals announced or closed including Parsons Corporation’s (NYSE:PSN) acquisition of Braxton Science & Technology Group ($300 million) and ANSYS’ (Nasdaq:ANSS) acquisition of Analytical Graphics ($700 million). Tess Oxenstierna Managing Director 203-524-0888 Capstone’s C4ISR Index vs. Market Indices: Last Twelve Months [email protected] S&P 500 Index C4ISR Index 110% Hilary Morrison Vice President 90% 917-763-0121 [email protected] 70% 50% 30% Percentage Change 10% -10% 10/30/15 10/30/16 10/30/17 10/30/18 10/30/19 10/30/20 Index includes: ACM, BAH, CACI, DXC, ESLT, GD, HXL, ICFI, J, LDOS, LHX, LMT, MANT, NOC, RTX, SAIC, SPR, TDG, VEC, VSAT, VSEC Source: Capital IQ and Capstone Research 2 C4ISR | November 2020 KEY TRENDS & DRIVERS Defense Priorities Shift from Counterterrorism to without GPS or without (radio frequency), because if you Near-Peer Competitors China and Russia can take in velocity or barometer or an (inertial navigation unit), those are not jammable or spoofable.”6 C4ISR industry activity has been heavily driven by shifting readiness and modernization needs of the Department of Small Unmanned Aircraft systems (sUAS) are also Defense (DOD) as it implements its 2018 National expected to play a crucial role in addressing the near-peer Defense Strategy—the first to be released in a decade.5 threats, particularly against China. To reduce the national Protecting America’s economic, diplomatic, and security concerns of using Chinese-sourced drones, the technological competitive advantage over geopolitical DOD launched the Blue sUAS project in 2019 to approve rivals China and Russia has generated heightened U.S.-commercially manufactured sUAS to deploy in the demand for military tools, vehicles, and technology, military, federal agencies, and government operations. including multiuse technology and that which can be Privately-held companies participating in the project have utilized in contested environments. As the military included Altavian, Parrot, Skydio, Teal, and Vantage implements its strategy, technology investment will be Robotics. As the DOD continues to focus on commercial necessary in areas including Artificial Intelligence (AI), 5G, options to accelerate technology in this area, quantum communication, Autonomous Unmanned Aerial opportunities for private sector growth is rich. Vehicles (AUVS), offensive cyber operations, and Internet of Things (IoT). The following paragraphs outline a few of This year, several mergers and acquisitions of UAS the recent initiatives that are fueling the C4ISR industry. companies have been announced or completed. Notably, on October 15th, Honeywell (NYSE:HON) acquired In October, the U.S. Army awarded Raytheon intellectual property, inventory, and equipment from Technologies’ (NYSE:RTX) Collins Aerospace busines a Ballard Unmanned Systems (terms not disclosed). The contract for Phase III of the Army’s second generation deal follows the June launch of Honeywell’s new Mounted Assured Position Navigation and Timing System Unmanned Aerial Systems and Urban Air Mobility (MAPS). The value of the contract was undisclosed. business unit. MAPS Gen I was first installed in 2019 on Stryker vehicles in the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in Europe. The GPS- “Adding Ballard Unmanned Systems to the Honeywell alternative utilizes anti-jamming antennas, inertial family is another example of our commitment to invest in measurement units, sensor fusion, and Military-Code (M- the growing UAS segment," Mike Madsen, President & Code) to ensure that soldiers have access to accurate CEO, of Honeywell Aerospace said in a press release.7 "We Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) data when can now begin producing top-quality, scalable power a satellite is compromised. Lt. Col. Alexander Rasmussen, systems for our UAS customers and eventually adapt Product Manager for Mounted PNT, explained to the these systems for other future aerospace, defense and media: “Sensor fusion also lays the foundation to operate adjacent segment applications." Tess Oxenstierna, Managing Director This fall, the Department of Defense (DOD) released its first enterprise data strategy, with its top priority focused on how to harness multi-sensor data for joint all-domain operations. The Pentagon’s strategy outlines the principles, capabilities and goals needed for DOD to become a “data-centric organization. ” Underpinning this strategy is a robust C4ISR network. According to the Pentagon’s Chief Information Officer, “Data is the ammunition in the Digital Modernization Strategy and is increasingly central to warfighter advantage on and off the battlefield. This strategy is the DOD’s first step to making that ammo persistently available… regardless of echelon or geographic location.” The release of the Pentagon’s data strategy comes after the U.S. Army and Air Force tested their ability to connect sensors and shooters across domains, a concept known as Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2), a major initiative across the military services. 3 C4ISR | November 2020 DEFENSE BUDGET REQUEST OVERVIEW DOD Funding from FY10 - FY21: Discretionary Budget Authority Base Budget Emergency OCO OCO for Base $1,000 $900 $800 $700 71 16 65 69 8 53 $600 163 159 6 3 115 82 82 85 59 $500 63 $400 $300 600 616 633 636 U.S. Dollars in BillionsU.S. Dollars in 528 528 530 495 496 497 521 523 $200 $100 $0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Source: Department of Defense FY 2021 budget Proposal FY21 Investment Total: $234.4 Billion Key defense spending accounts: Missile Defeat and Defense Mission-support activities: $66.8 billion C4I Systems, Programs, $11.6 $11.9 Aircraft and related systems: $56.9 billion Ground Systems, $13.0 Shipbuilding and maritime systems: $32.2 billion Mission Support Missiles and munitions: $21.3 billion Space-based Activities, $66.8 Systems, $15.5 Space-based systems: $15.5 billion Ground systems: $13 billion C4I systems: $11.9 billion Missiles and Munitions, $21.3 Missile defeat and defense programs: $11.6 billion Aircraft and Related Systems, $56.9 Shipbuilding and Maritime Systems, $32.2 4 C4ISR | November 2020 DEFENSE BUDGET REQUEST OVERVIEW (CONTINUED) 1) Strengthen military readiness and invest in readiness. The FY 2021 budget request continues building a more lethal force by maximizing force readiness, modernizing capabilities in all warfighting domains, and innovating to expand the U.S. competitive advantage. The budget funds readiness across each of the Services at $125.1 billion, with Air Force receiving Air $56.9 billion, Maritime $32.3 billion, Land $13 billion, Missile Defeat and Defense $20.3 billion, Nuclear Enterprise $17.7 billion, Special Operations Forces $3.0 billion.8 2) Strengthen alliances, deepen interoperability. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) announced that 2019 defense spending across European Allies and Canada increased in real terms by 4.6%, the fifth consecutive year of growth. By the end of 2020, these Allies will have increased investment
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